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Nashvilletwin

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Everything posted by Nashvilletwin

  1. Nashvilletwin
    No chance Twins go 5 years $100MM+ on any of these three. Given the pitching pipeline, I’d think a two year deal with a slight overpay for Gray is way more likely. Even a one year deal with an option for Maeda is a better fit given current circumstances. ’24 is going to be a bit of a transition year as we await Lee, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Martin, and Rosario. But a transition year when we should be fully capable of contending. The Twins will reload their starting staff in ‘26 when the window is wide open and the position players are still on relatively cheap contracts.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    All of our assets - cash available and players - are fungible. We can trade for position players just as easily as we can sign them as FAs. Same with pitchers. At the moment, this team is long position players, except for maybe CF, and definitely short a #2 starter. A combination of raising cash by trading a high salary position player coupled with using available FA budget in order to get the pitcher we want within our overall budget constraints is certainly an option.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    Trade Polanco for decent prospects or cheap relief corp upgrades. Then use the $ savings to apply to a top FA pitcher. We use our “depth” and $15MM in extra payroll to get a solid #2. Easy peasy.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Lots of talk about signing a free agent or making a trade. The FO could essentially combine those two strategies by signing a top FA and then pay for him by trading Polanco or Farmer or, I guess, even Kepler. The point is that we have trade capital that can also raise cash. Given our infield depth, the FO shouldn’t think twice about trading Polanco if the cash that deal saves us allows us to stretch in free agency for the equivalent of a solid #2 innings eating starter.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Cleveland lost their biggest advantage - Terry Francona. He will be hard to replace. The Guardians, and for that matter the Tigers, White Sox, or Royals either, are not keeping me up at night. The Twins should be focused on what it will take to win the American League - not just the Central.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    The Twins have two very big holes in their lineup currently. The first is in CF. Reasonable options (stand alone or in combination with one another - Buxton, Martin, Castro, Gordon, Taylor) at little or not much extra cost exist to fill that hole. The second is a dependable, innings eating #2 starter. Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack have the other four spots. Filling that hole is going to cost us - either in cash or trade capital. Gray is a perfect fit for that slot. Just go ahead and offer him a two year deal with a slight overpay to get him to stay. Two years at $45MM and each side can call it a day. BTW, our third biggest hole is probably one additional starter - a reliable #4 type who could also do pen work if necessary. Maeda fits that role perfectly - but is probably too expensive. This is where our trade capital could come in handy. Just no more Mahle’s…..
  7. Nashvilletwin
    The Twins are not long corner outfielders at the moment (or center fielders for that matter as well). Kepler’s second half cannot be overlooked - if he produces any where near that in ‘24, he very likely could not be replaced internally or externally via free agency for anything near that $10MM. Prediction: Kepler is our starting RFer opening day. Polanco, I believe, also has an option for ‘25 at $12,5MM. A team acquiring Polanco actually has control for two years at a very reasonable price. That extra year definitely has value in the trade market, Given the Twin’s depth in the infield, and the ability to pretty much replace Polanco with infield depth at a lower cost in free agency if need be, Polanco is more likely to be moved. Polanco’s trade return plus freeing up $10MM could really help to round out the pitching staff. Prediction: Polanco is moved before opening day.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. Another reason this lineup can do damage is that by ‘25 only Correa (and maybe Jeffers to a certain extent and Vasquez if he’s still here) is making real money. There is a lot money, even including what we owe Buxton, left over for pitching. That’s a huge advantage. Btw, Rosario might replace Wallner, but we can play that by ear. This would also be such a fun team to watch.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    Option #3: In ‘25, Rodriguez starts in RF alongside Jenkins in CF and Rosario in LF - the three rookies then play together for five years on basically league minimum/arb eligible salaries. The three of them form the best outfield in Twins history and the Twins use the extra cash (from them and Lewis and Lee) to have the best pitching staff in the majors. Multiple World Series wins follow. I vote for this option.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Agree with the hypothesis - for a vast majority of the Twins’ upcoming personnel decisions not dictated by date specific league rules. However, the single biggest decision - how we replace Gray and, for that matter, Maeda - is something we might do a bit more proactively this off-season. Who knows, we might resign one, both or go an entirely different route. But it would be better to figure that out a bit earlier while more options are on the table. Last year’s kick save (trading Arraez for Lopez after pretty much figuring out the risks we were running with Mahle and Maeda) worked great, but was probably not the original strategy. Perhaps this year the key rotation decisions get addressed earlier.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. However, most of us TDers would probably admit that we had higher hopes for Celestino. Larnach seems to be in somewhat of a similar situation. It’s easy for some of us (not saying you are at all, btw) to just blame the player for not taking the next step. That’s a bit of a cop out. Maybe not in this particular case, but in some cases, if not many, the organization has to share the blame. Hopefully lessons are learned in these instances and applied, We’d all hate to see Martin, Rodriguez, Wallner, Julien, even Lee for that matter, etc. go the path of Celestino and others. Obviously not every prospect becomes the big leaguer he (and we) hope to be. However, to truly be able to compete in this free agent, high spending world of MLB, small to mid market teams must truly differentiate their ability to develop top minor league prospects and, importantly, continue that development upon making the majors. I’m not sure this capability is yet a Twins’ strong suit.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    SWR seems like he has one more year to turn things around, but he is quite a bit back now in the ‘25 future starter sweepstakes. He”s still young, but do pitchers who eventually make the bigs spend four complete years in AAA (which is where he’d be after ‘25)? I’d like to think he might need a new home, but I seen to recall he’s already moved around quite a bit. Here’s hoping he at least runs into some hot streaks and can be a spot starter over the next couple of years. However, at this point, the smart money would have to take the under on him being a definitive member of the rotation at any time over the next two years (and, therefore, maybe ever). Here’s hoping he figures it out. Prielipp could be lower at this stage; he’s proven exactly nothing. Still he has promise. Question: do you prefer SWR with what he’s shown or the promise of Prielipp behind door #2? IMHO, Nick has it right - probably Prielipp. Let’s see what happens in ‘24. Some of us TDers thought at the time of the trade Salas would never make the bigs and third guy in the deal (sorry, I can’t recall his name off the top of my head) actually had more upside. No reason to change that assessment after ‘23; Salas has a long way to go and lots of other players to climb over to ever see Target Field. Hope that’s changes in ‘24 for him.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    Could our starting outfield lineup in ‘25 consist of three rookies: Jenkins, Rosario, and Rodriguez? Maybe Wallner and Martin as reserves and DH? Probably not how things will work out, but fun to imagine. Boy, throw in Lewis, Lee, Julien, Jeffers and a healthy Kiriloff and that could be quite the young core. If Correa, Buxton, and Vasquez rounded out the 13 position player spots, that would be quite a fun lineup. The Twins outlook is very solid.
  14. Nashvilletwin
    Things will be ok. Think about who should be in the starting lineup or on the travelling squad in ‘25: Julien, Lewis, Lee, Wallner, Kiriloff, Jeffers, Martin, Rodriguez, Castro and, maybe one or two other minimum salary/arbitration position players with Jenkins on the way. Add in Correa, Buxton and Vasquez and that’s it for non pitchers. That totals about $75MM. Btw, that team is young, but still has excellent experience and senior leadership. We should be able to cobble together a pitching staff for another $75MM, especially if Ryan, Ober, and Varland plus one or two prospects round out the starters with Lopez, Paddack and maybe one other. All is good, the future is bright. Just hope we don’t overthink it - add a starter, pick up Kepler, trade Polanco and let the kids play.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    Including all players who played for the Twins (so exclude the Senators) and based on their total careers - not just their seasons as a Twin: RF: Olivia CF: Kirby LF: Winfield 1B: Thome 2B: Sir Rodney SS: Molitor 3B: Harmon C: Mauer DH: Big Papi SPs: Bert, Johan, Kaat, Pascual, Sweet Music RPs: Nathan, Aguilera, Reardon, Every Day Eddie, Worthington
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Use our trade capital or cash on pitching - we still need at least a #2 starter and could probably use an inning eating #5-6 type to hedge Paddack and Varland (why do Gray and Maeda just seem to still fit those roles so well?). Filling those two slots is our biggest priority. So we should go internal at 1B. Lots of options and the solution could very well be dynamic over the course of the season. A lot will depend on AK’s health and how Severino, Lee (who should never be a 1B) and Miranda look coming out of spring training and early in the season. We still have too many position players chasing too few spots - so we have the necessary depth to cover it even without Solano (and Polanco if that’s the case) coming back. Btw, nice job Nick not mentioning JG as an option. Geez, I hope that ship has left port never to return.
  17. Nashvilletwin
    My take away from this article is that there are essentially no internal options to adequately replace Gray. The rotation next year starts with Lopez (a clear #1), Ryan and Ober (decent #3’s). Paddack, who could be a #2, #3 or #4 in terms of performance, will be the fourth starter and we will need to see how many innings he can put up over the course of the season. Varland and SWR and others are going to be our spot starters when injuries and needed rest invariably call. So there is a gaping hole for an innings eating #2-#3 type who will need to be acquired from outside the organization. The good news is we have either the trade capital or cash - depending on whom we want to keep - to make that happen. Quite honestly, a bit of an over pay for Gray on a two year deal would be ideal. He fits our need perfectly and likes it here presumably. It shouldn’t be that hard to get done.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Wondering why they waited until late October when it was pretty obvious in August that surgery was going to be the necessary course of action. We will know more later, but it sounds as if those two months might be quite valuable if the goal is to be ready by or near opening day.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Super recap Seth. Probably 4-5 solid major leaguers on this list debuting in volume by ‘24 or 25 (maybe Cossetti in ‘26 depending on Vasquez). Jenkins had a short stint, but his hitting was dang good for coming in straight off his senior year in high school.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    I’m not sure that’s right. Let’s assume the Twins win out and get to 89 wins. If any team gets to 90, the Twins are #3. TX already has 89 wins. So let’s assume Seattle sweeps TX; thus, Seattle and TX both end up 89 wins tying the Twins. If the Astros win zero or one game, they don’t get to 89 and it’s a two way tie for the AL West between Seattle and TX. TX wins that tiebreak (which will be the case even if Seattle sweeps this week) and Twins are the #2. This is the only scenario for the Twins to get the #2 seed. If the Astros win two games, all three end up tied for the AL West and, as you point out, Seattle therefore wins the division and the Twins are #3. Seattle and Houston cannot tie by themselves at 89 wins.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    At the moment, there is only one path to us getting the #2 seed: 1. Astros win against Seattle tonight and lose at least 2 of 3 vs. AZ. 2. Seattle lose tonight against the Astros and win exactly 3 of 4 from TX. 3. Texas lose against LAA tonight and lose exactly 3 of 4 against Seattle. 4. Twins win last 5. In this scenario the Twins, Astros, and Rangers all end up with 89 wins and Seattle finishes with 88. Since we own the tiebreak with Texas and Houston, we get the #2 seed. Jim Carey in Dumb and Dumber comes to mind. But hey, one never knows.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Yes, this order would be fine, but in round 2. Let’s just keep winning this week and see what happens. Who knows?
  23. Nashvilletwin
    No Gallo?
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Maeda followed by Winder in game 3 if necessary. Perfectly fine with that.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    Yeah, let’s get a win tomorrow and pull for an O’s sweep of the Astros. If that happens, three back with the tiebreaker is doable given our schedule - we could go on a little run and maybe win 7 or 8 of the last 9. Who knows?
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