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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'd keep Kreidler of the three; the defense historically has been quite good, he can play a very credible CF to go with the infield, and while I don't expect the offense to be great, he can at least run into a homer from time to time. But it's predicated on calling up Culpepper. When they're ready to bring him up, I'd send Gray down. At some point I'd move on from Arcia for one of our OF down in AAA.
  2. jmlease1
    Really happy to see Soto back on the mound. Don't really care about the results right now, just want to see him healthy and throwing. I'm liking what we're seeing out of Diaw. He really seems to be positioning himself for a callup to AA, and boy could they use his bat in Wichita. Plus, his picture at B-Ref makes him look like he's about 14 which I find hilarious. Quick's stuff still looks great; he's still got some work to do in learning how to pitch, but the upside on him is pretty dang good, IMHO. Not a bad outing, he's just had some really dominant ones that expectations are high. I'm happy to see him getting innings.
  3. jmlease1
    Maybe he was the TD's consensus pick for top pitching prospect, but he wasn't mine. It's concerning I guess, it's not good, and you'd always prefer that he be destroying high A rather than vacillating between loading up the bases and striking everyone out, but he's still young and inexperienced and we're only in June. I'm more concerned about Soto's inability to get on the field, TBH.
  4. jmlease1
    predicating a "regression" for Keaschall based on his June results is a bit silly on June 11. Keaschall had a bad start to the season, hit pretty well in May, and has been wobbly all year on D. If he struggles at plate all June, maybe you send him down for a re-set, but if he gets on a heater for a week he's back to making good progress at the plate, so feels like a hasty judgment right now. There's better choices to send out if Culpepper gets called up (I'm pretty bored with the Tristan Gray Experience, and the Arcia innings aren't exactly doing much for me either; certainly neither has an impactful future with the Twins) I'd hoped for better from Keaschall so far, but let's give him a little more time to succeed or fail, eh?
  5. jmlease1
    Eh. He's 20 years old in High A. Development is not linear, and the only reason to "worry" is because he got hyped a little too much too fast based on on some nifty peripherals and good work in 2025 in Ft. Myers. Maybe this stretch of struggles will be the best thing for him as he'll stop being looked at as too high a prospect based on projection and can go back to just being a developmental arm with promise. It hasn't been a good season at all for him, but we're supposed to worry about less than half a season in High A for a dude who's 20? Maybe I'll worry in October.
  6. jmlease1
    It would be great if Abel is fully recovered and ready to roll again. he looked really good before getting hurt, and it's nice to see him have a fine rehab start. Must be a bit frustrating for guys like Fedko & Sabato to be playing so well and know that they don't have much chance of getting called up. But both guys put themselves on the periphery of the Twins plans in previous seasons through their own (lack of) production at various times, so hopefully they can handle the wait. Maybe some summer/deadline moves will open the gates to give some of these guys a shot. The one thing I don't want to see if there's any kind of sell-off is to be adding veteran cast-offs to fill in late.
  7. jmlease1
    Keep in mind, Culpepper was drafted by the Previous Regime (Who Shall Not Be Named); often seems like there are people around here who actively root against prospects from that governance, that's how deep the hate goes. And of course, since a minority of prospects work out, it's easy to call people suckers for looking hopefully to the next big thing and then go "see! I told you they sucked!" if they don't become an immediate star... I dunno if there's any more pressure on Culpepper than any other highly touted prospect; I think he could be very impactful if he comes up and can field well at SS and hit, but I dunno that he's being seen as a savior any more than any other prospect that looks very promising. I think the time is getting close on calling him up, though, and I'm looking forward to it. It might put a charge into the team and fanbase (even if some people already seem to be rooting for him to fail) and it would be fun to see the vision of an infield with him at the head. I'm rooting for Culpepper, who has done damn near everything you could possibly ask for a prospect to date. He was in High A in his draft season at 21 after crushing it in Low A for a couple of weeks. He's never spent more than about half a season at any level in the minors before getting a promotion. He's looking at debuting in MLB in his 2nd full pro season. Not bad for the 21st pick. Looking forward to seeing him at Target Field sooner rather than later.
  8. jmlease1
    He seems to have the ability to stick at catcher; part of the reason he's only splitting time there is he's on the same team as Tait (who also needs the developmental time) and I think the Twins are careful not to hammer their catching prospects with too much of a load. The fact that he's playing so much CF as his second position says a lot about his athletic ability. Whether or not he's a future MLB player or not...well, he's still in A-ball so who knows? I'm not going to start predicting Diaw is the next Biggio or anything, but he's showing something so far. I'm hoping he gets moved up to AA soon and gets more of a challenge.
  9. jmlease1
    It's a pretty even split between CF and C right now, so I really don't think we have to worry about him being "another DH type". Diaw seems to be lining himself up for a promotion to Wichita, who could use his bat. Not an exciting day for the prospects down on the farm, but it goes like that some days.
  10. jmlease1
    Sure, but a lot of A-ball guys never really go anywhere either, drafted or no. You'll have guys like that on the college rosters who figure out they're not going pro (or if they do they'll have to really scrabble in the low minors for little money when they're already in their 20's) while they're playing in college. It's sort of how you'll get someone playing DII who people talk about as being good enough to play D1; they might be good enough to make the level, but are they really going to play a lot? Or get a scholarship? But in D2 they might start 3-4 years, get a scholarship, and have a great time while getting their degree. There's a lot of factors. It's reasonable to think that the level of competition in a Power 5 D1 conference to be somewhere between low A and high A.
  11. jmlease1
    Cossetti looks more like organizational depth to me, but he'll probably get a shot in AAA next season as long as the Twins like the way he works with pitchers. As noted above, catchers have a different developmental timeline, but Cossetti hit the AA wall pretty hard as a hitter. Doesn't exactly look like the next Mitch Garver to me. Mitrovich is interesting, might end up being a guy they pulled out of a smaller program and could be someone. I love a guy with a good changeup, so I'll be rooting for him. I agree that he needs to see better competition; at 22 he's mostly facing guys that are younger than him, including a lot of guys who don't even have that college experience. But good for him for dominating when he's taking the ball. Quick is a guy I really like. When he isn't handing out free passes, he's very tough. If he can develop more consistency and command his pitches he will keep rising "quick"-ly. Biggest issue with him is he simply hasn't pitched very much. Hopefully the Twins can build him up, but I don't expect him to clear 60 pitches in an outing this year. But he's shown he can mow through 4 innings with about 50 pitches which is pretty fun. Whether he gets another promotion this season or not, I'm very confident he'll be in AA next year. Please stay healthy, mah dude.
  12. jmlease1
    After a slow start tot he season, Winokur has done quite well. There's still some concern about his ability to make consistent contact, but he's doing a better job of taking walks when available and going after pitches that he can punish. If he keeps this up through the end of June, I think he'll be heading to Wichita I'd like for them to stop wasting time with him at SS; there's just no real chance that he ever plays there in MLB and he's got a real chance to find a home at either 3B or CF...or both. I'm find with experimenting with guys in A-ball and giving players extended time to see if they can stick/develop at a position, but De Andrade is a better SS than Winokur and they don't trust him there. The Rule 5 draft for him this upcoming offseason will be interesting. Even with a midseason promotion to AA he won't be ready for MLB by a long stretch...and you have to think that the 26-man roster spot would be too hard to give to a guy who still needs real developmental time...but the upside is so tantalizing that if I were a team short on talent I might look at whether he could fill a role like Outman did for the Twins earlier this season: play some OF defense, pinch run, with the occasional start to give him some swings. Will the Twins protect him or roll the dice? Fun prospect to watch. Was worth taking because of all the tools. Like all prospects, maybe he'll get there, maybe he won't but the upside is still there and he's still only 21.
  13. jmlease1
    I get that the Twins don't consider Sabato or Fedko to be real prospects at this point...but at what point to you just give them a chance anyways? Is it after the trade deadline and a sell-off? I get the 40-man issue makes it harder to pull them up and they're hoarding those slots for players they think have higher upside or fill more immediate needs...but both of those guys are doing about everything you could ask for of them. Interesting question for these kinds of borderline dudes...who might just be AAAA players (too good for AAA, not really good enough for MLB) but you just don't know. Twins were willing to roll with Outman for quite a long time, much to the frustration of fans. Is it familiarity breeding contempt? Those guys have been in the organization so long they know all their flaws intimately and it blocks out their assets?
  14. jmlease1
    Houston has been on fire lately; nice to see him hitting well after a bit of a power outage in May. I'd say he's on track for a midseason promotion to AA. It'll be interesting to see where the Twins go with midseason promotions. Wichita could use some hitting reinforcements; their lineup has really struggled after Mendez, Ross, and Olivar all got early bumps. Hopefully more guys get back on the field too and we see a run of good health for a while.
  15. jmlease1
    Talk about needing the starter to chew up some innings...and they got it from Zebulon. Good for him for settling down and getting the job done, and for the defense actually supporting the pitcher. A nice win. Hopefully they can get the rotation healthy, claw together some consistent offense...keep digging for an actual bullpen...
  16. jmlease1
    This is where it's complicated for Royce Lewis. You can't expect him to not take advantage of AAA pitchers and club homers when the opportunity arises. Is his walk rate down at AAA? Sure, but he's also hitting .357. When players on on a hot streak like that they're walk rates are always going to be lower because they're hitting everything and don't have to grind out as many walks. (The OBP is .429, so it's not like he's just swinging at everything) Right now, his approach is working. He's not just hitting AAA pitching, he's utterly destroying it. How to you tell a guy to "go the other way" more when he's crushing it? (Pulling the ball isn't an inherent evil either; ask David Ortiz) He can be pull-happy if his bat speed is letting him catch up to fastballs and he can lay off the breaking stuff away...so is he showing enough of that? Notably, Royce is a confidence player. He was not swinging with any confidence when he got sent down, and he was just guessing at pitches. His confidence has got to be jumping way back up again, which you'd think would be a good think. It does sound like some people around here don't want that for Royce and think he needs to be broken and humbled before he's allowed back up to MLB, if he ever is. (I'd say there are some people who don't want him around at all ever again; as much as there are supposed homers who are back on the bandwagon there seem to be haters who have given up on Royce too and even successes in AAA will be discounted...)
  17. jmlease1
    It's complicated on Royce. You want to see him doing well, which he is. But the difference between AAA and MLB is pretty huge, and it's unclear how much of his current success in Saint Paul is a result of him fixing problems that were ruining him in MLB or the fact that the pitchers just make a lot more mistakes over the plate/struggle more to induce hitters to chase off the place. Now, Royce is also definitely a confidence player, so him clocking a bunch of AAA pitchers is also probably good for that aspect for him? Hopefully he's getting a good re-set that lets him get into a repeatable and sustainable approach at the plate. I'd love for him to get back on track (it's sad to me that there are people on this site who seem to want him to fail and be gone) Winokur is continuing on his nice run. I'd say he's lining himself up well for a midseason promotion to AA, which is great. Diaw is interesting: not showing much pop in the bat yet, but he's doing well at everything else...maybe he gets a promotion soon too? I'm impressed that he's still splitting time between catcher and CF. I'd probably move McDaniel up fairly soon as well; I just don't think we learn much about him watching him beat up on A-Ball pitching, and while I'd love for him to turn out to be a hidden gem that good scouting and vigilance towards the indy leagues uncovered, I'm not going to get too excited about him until he gets up to AA and faces both better and more age-appropriate competition.
  18. jmlease1
    Solid enough effort from Prielipp, and nice to see him get through 6. Back to back solid (if not great) starts got us wins and kept the bullpen from running out of guys already. Pretty important until we get some guys back off the IL. Some good clutch hitting and solid baserunning to help get runs across the plate, and frankly we needed every one we could find. A little fortunate to bunch up hits at the bottom of the lineup; could have used a bit more pop. Mixed bag for Jackson: 2 hits, but also 2 errors. seems to have a good feel for making challenges?
  19. jmlease1
    Encouraging news, but still worried about Abel until he's back in MLB throwing again. Glad to hear Festa is on a path again, but with his initial diagnosis I felt like we simply couldn't count on him in 2026. Wish I'd been wrong, but we are where we are. Hopefully he's able to throw real innings before the end of the season. The real question with Jeffers is what his power stroke will look like when he's back. That's been the biggest drawback for a lot of guys returning from that injury: the power isn't there for a while. And for Jeffers that's an important part of his game.
  20. jmlease1
    Finally, some good news on the injury front. Really hope the issues are past for Soto and he gets to have a healthy second half of the season. He's missed a lot of time, but is a very talented arm.
  21. jmlease1
    it's one of the things that makes this so hard to know right now; Roden has crushed AAA pitching just fine, but looked a little lost in his first exposure to MLB pitching with the Twins last season. Mendez might have similar challenges, you just don't know. The last step is the steepest. The Twins did seem to get quite a bit of value from their deadline deals, but of course they also gave up real assets to get there for some them. The great thing about the deals for Mendez ( and Gallagher) is we didn't really give up much.
  22. jmlease1
    Gallagher is doing a nice job, and if he gets that walk rate back under control he'll have a real chance. The prospect return expectation for Castro was low; Willi wasn't having a great season and was a free agent to be, so getting anything viable in return would be great. Gallagher looks like he could be a contributor soon, which is pretty great business for trading half a season of a utility guy, even if Castro was a guy who did well for us overall and was certainly very well liked.
  23. jmlease1
    Well, it's absurd to suggest that no one is doing more to validate the trade deadline than Mendez, when Taj Bradley has been so good overall as well. (and while Mick Abel's injury is a setback, he was also showing out) In terms of prospect capital that hasn't reached MLB...sure? Tait is doing well, but is still a ways away, but the Twins return was focused on players that already had some MLB experience or were close to coming up (Bradley, Abel, Rojas). Mendez is doing very well so far and as a return for half a season of Bader, it's an excellent return. there's still some concerns about the amount of groundballs he hits and whether or not he'll generate enough consistent power to be a corner OF/1B/DH. But they targeted well and got a real asset in flipping a player that wasn't going to be back.
  24. jmlease1
    Boy i hope the prospects get healthy soon. Tired of seeing so many guys hitting the IL.
  25. jmlease1
    Martin really needed that hit yesterday. Not a great outing for Ryan, who was too casual in his location. Nice to see the offense putting up a pile of runs though. Love it when they're pulling walks, it consistently fires their offense. Nice bit of defense from Larnach in left. Still think they'd be better playing him in RF and Martin in LF, but Larnach has been much much better in the OF this year. I'm sure being healthy has helped a lot, but he's also worked to get in better shape and cover more ground.
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