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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Yeah, I'm not sure Simmons makes the top five worst signings? He's been bad, but Nishioka was worse and was a multi-year deal. I tend to agree that 1 year deals limit how "bad" it ever is. You're much worse off when you sign a guy to a 3-5 year deal and he bombs than having a bridge signing (which Simmons clearly has been) to a 1 year deal. Nolasco's deal was ugly, though I'm sure I was hopeful at the time. But he was awful and we had to give up on a prospect that we still liked to get rid of his contract. (Meyer busted out too, but at the time it was hard to be happy about seeing him go...was even worse when Icky Nolasco was good for half a season for the Angels...)
  2. jmlease1
    Velocity isn't everything, though. We've seen enough guys who throw mid-to-upper 90's whose fastball was as flat and straight as can be and those guys get crushed. Ryan's fastball has good life and movement on it, which should make it harder for guys to consistently catch up/square up on it. Jury's still out on his secondary stuff, but he's not just a fastball/slider guy: he does throw a change up and a curve (and definitely had a few nice ones that he dropped in for strikes early in the count). The big flies he gave up could be troublesome against better hitters, so we'll see how he does, but if he can stay out of the heart of the plate and away from 3-ball counts, he can be a quality pitcher.
  3. jmlease1
    I mean, Cleveland has a garbage fire of an offense...but you can only pitch to the batters in front of you. I look forward to seeing how Ryan does against a good offense. I think he'll do ok. A few more starts like this and the pencil being used to put him in next year's rotation will become ink.
  4. jmlease1
    Terrific outing from Joe Ryan. Might have a future in this league! I got a little nervous on some of those deep flies, but Ryan sure didn't look nervous about it. Looking forward to watching more of his starts and seeing how he lands. Loved the defensive play by Jeffers late holding on to that foul tip. That's a great job and I love seeing it. Big bomb from Sano too.
  5. jmlease1
    Kepler hasn't been great this year, but despite the low BA he's been an average hitter because he draws walks and hits for decent power. Throw in his good defense (good in right, average in CF this season...down a bit, probably because of the injuries) and he's basically an average starter. Astudillo is...not. Simmons has been good defensively, but so bad on offense that Kepler has still added more value to the team despite playing abut 20% less. Cave has been awful this year, but also literally broke his back. While I don't want him back...I'm gonna give him a bit of a pass.
  6. jmlease1
    On what planet? Astudillo is a poor defensive catcher. His value at the plate has been basically exactly the same as Jeffers and Jeffers is getting killed for sucking at the plate. Just because Astudillo has a better BA doesn't make him a better hitter, and his utter inability to draw walks means that unless he's hitting close to .300 he ain't good. His value is in his versatility, but he's a poor defender at basically every position. Look, La Tortuga is a fun player...but he's not a good one. Jeffers is a having a tough go of it, but this is his rookie season; despite playing 26 games last year he still meets the requirements for RoY in 2021. (obviously, he won't win)
  7. jmlease1
    7 will likely be with the organization in some fashion: Rooker, Larnach, Sano, Jax, Dobnak, Celestino, and Jeffers will be with the Twins. Rooker, Larnach, Celestino, Jax, and Jeffers all have options left; Jeffers might make it out of spring training as the backup, but we'll see. Celestino might compete for the 4th OF spot...and actually might be ready to be a good contributor now that he's had time in AAA (where he should have been for most of the season). Jax is going to be battling for the 5th spot, might have a chance at a bullpen role, but will probably be in AAA starting. Sano is 1.1 bWAR right now and if he can avoid another horrid start is a useful player. Larnach needs the AAA time to deal with constant off-speed stuff and get a reset. Rooker...is probably a AAAA player and will likely be battling for the last spot on the roster. All of this seems ok to me. we need the FA bets next season to not completely implode like Happ, Simmons, Colome did (and Colome has been fine since his dreadful first couple of months; if he wasn't inducing PTSD in the fan base I'd consider picking up his option)
  8. jmlease1
    Sano has actually been a solid performer overall this year and has been very good after a horrific start. he was very good in both July & August and wasn't bad in May & June. The trick for Sano next season is going to be how to have an acceptable start to the season, rather than wait 2 months to get going...
  9. jmlease1
    I'm actually not all that optimistic about Jax as a reliever for reasons described above: no out pitch. I think his command is actually pretty good for a young pitcher, but he needs to be really on to be effective and I don't think he can do that at this point in his career. He either needs to tweak a pitch in his arsenal for increased effectiveness or add another pitch that he can command to be more than a spot starter/long reliever. This was only a "good" start in the context of his previous couple, and continues to show that his margin of error is really fine. I do agree that he should stay in the rotation through the end of the year: give him the innings. Let's see if a) this is who he is, b) if he can adjust, c) if he can improve.
  10. jmlease1
    whoof, that's a rough night for the prospect list: only 1 guy in the top 11 played, only Urbina had a particularly good night among the top 20. Strotman has got some work to do. He was never the key piece in the Cruz deal to me, but if he can't figure out his command, he's going to wash out pretty fast in the organization. The talent is there, but the execution isn't coming through very well at all. Which guy is he, the one who was nearly ready for MLB in Tampa or the guy who looks like a hot mess in MN? And frankly, his utility as a reliever isn't all that high if command is his constant issue. He looks like he needs a reset right now, and I don't know how he gets it right now.
  11. jmlease1
    I do think it's possible to build a functional rotation for next season that doesn't rely on 3-4 rookies being ready to go from Day 1, but it's not easy. Ober increasingly looks like a guy that can be counted on. The fact that he's making adjustments to stay ahead of major league hitters and scouting speaks really well of him and suggests that he's less likely to take a step back before settling in. The peripherals look good. He's still got some work to do in mastering lefties, but he should have the weapons to get through. Pineda makes sense to bring back. He likes it here, the team likes him, and after the injuries he'll probably be fairly affordable (1 year 6-8M?). You have to expect that he'll miss some time for injury (and be happy if it doesn't happen) but he's a solid rotation guy when he's available and should take a little pressure off. We'll see how Ryan finishes the year, but he seems like another guy that you can pencil in. He'll have some bumps along the way, but there's not much left for him to do in AAA and sometime you just have to ride with a guy. They'll need to sign at least one FA and spend some pretty good money on them. But they'll have the money to go there. They'll be able to drop $15-20M on a starter without impacting the budget significantly or even needing to deal Donaldson. That should be enough to get a #2/3 guy. The trade option makes sense. The Twins have depth in their system and a potential 40-man crunch, so why not package a couple of guys together (and consider a major league asset) to go get an experience starter? Yes, they'll have to give up something quality to get one, but it won't have to be Martin or Lewis or Balazovic. You'll need 4-5 more guys to be ready to get starts. That leaves Duran, Balazovic, Dobnak, and Winder to step up when Pineda goes down hurt, someone else gets a ding, Ryan is ineffective, etc. Maybe Canterino is ready & healthy. Strotman. Woods-Richardson. Still enough in the budget left to get a bridge SS and spend a little money on experienced bullpen help.
  12. jmlease1
    Without looking: who's the better pitcher, Brusdar Graterol or Jorge Alcala? Who has the better career ERA, ERA+, WHIP? Does that change your perspective on who Graterol is as a player? Relievers can have really high variance from season to season. It's why I get twitchy about investing big salaries in them: they can go from dominating to being just another guy in the blink of an eye...and then be really good again without injury coming into play at all. It's also a reason why starters have more value than relievers. but the Dodgers needed relief help and were long on starters at the time. In terms of absolute value, the Twins still probably "win" this deal because starters are "worth" more, and even with Maeda missing next season because of injury, if he comes back and throws an mostly healthy season, then the Twins will almost certainly end up getting more value out of him over the same 4 year period. (in the last 2 years, Maeda has put up about 1.5 bWAR; Graterol is around 0.1) But need is need.
  13. jmlease1
    There's a Vallimont start for you. Tons of Ks, a bunch of walks, and a start that keeps you thinking, "Man, if he can figure it out..." He's a fascinating case. If his command comes together, he's going to be a beast. Could be a high-end starter, with a floor of high impact reliever. If he can't get his command up to where it needs to be, then he might never see MLB. Got to be one of the biggest boom/bust players in the Twins system. Not great news about Canterino; the talent is there, but the injury is worrisome. Hopefully it is just tendonitis and not a symptom of something more serious. Wonder if he's a candidate for winter ball or the AFL? He needs innings and his lack of innings is why I don't see him as a serious candidate to pitch for the Twins in 2022. As good as he's been, I don't see him jumping from limited innings in A-ball to the majors that quickly. I would love to know what the injury record has been like for the top 20 prospects across all of baseball this year. Twins have had a ton of them, and I'm wondering if they're unlucky, screwing something up, or in the same boat as everyone else...
  14. jmlease1
    Ryan looked promising out there. He clearly had some trouble with his command in the third and put himself in some bad counts...and MLB hitters will generally punish a guy for it. But it was good to see him respond well to giving up the monster dinger by getting back to work. It'll be interesting to see how he does as teams get tape on him and hitter try and prepare specifically for his stuff and approach. I think he's going to need to continue to improve his secondary offerings, but there's good movement and deception on his fastball that should let it play up a little. Solid job in his MLB debut. I know it was frustrating to see so little life from the Twins bats the last two games, and especially last night when the rookie could have really used a lead to pitch with, but overreacting to a couple of games with this lineup is just silly. The Twins are 6th in OPS+ for the year: the lineup is fine. They've probably been a little unlucky (just above league average in runs scored), but the idea that the Twins don't have a good offense is simply wrong. Yes, it's a little frustrating to have so many guys with a low batting average, but BA is down all across baseball and the Twins are still right around average even with guys like Kepler, Rooker, Jeffers, Cave, and Sano flirting with/succumbing to the Mendoza Line. (and Sano has been quite good since the horrific start)
  15. jmlease1
    I don't think trades need to be evaluated as a zero-sum win/loss metric. Both teams can "win" a trade based on their needs. I think this deal was a win for the Twins, because they wanted and needed starting pitching and got a good starter on a contract that was a good fit for the their team. The injury stinks for Maeda and the Twins (especially because they really needed him to hold down the rotation next season) but it doesn't change how good he was last season putting the team into contention. Graterol was a good prospect and has flashes of it as a reliever, but he's not dominating like his velocity might suggest. Did the Dodgers "lose"? Not really: they needed bullpen support, Graterol was solid last year, is fine this year, and they won the title in 2020. I'd say they're pretty happy with the deal too. (Raley was mostly a throw-in) I think both teams would do that deal again. I would.
  16. jmlease1
    Looking forward to seeing him pitch for the twins. I think it's great that he's going to get a chance to get his feet wet in MLB in some relatively lower-pressure games, and he's got some real talent. Should be fun to watch! be nice to feel confident penciling him in the rotation with Ober next year. The early results at Saint Paul were encouraging. Here's hoping for much success at Target Field!
  17. jmlease1
    Be outstanding if they can land all three. Adding talent every year through international signings is just as important as drafting well to keep that talent pipeline flowing. there's probably more risk involved (younger players, longer development time, rule 5 exposure, etc) but if you're scouting well and making smart decisions it's a huge opportunity. Twins have had some good success this way and these look like interesting prospects.
  18. jmlease1
    That was my first inclination too; maybe Matt Canterino? I expect him to start next year in AA, and think it's unlikely he'll debut in 2022. He needs to have a healthy minor league season and get innings, but he seems the least likely to get rushed into service in 2022. I'd bet Canterino, Petty, or next year's #1 pick.
  19. jmlease1
    Nicely done by Ober again. He's having a fine season and looking like someone to pencil in to the rotation for next season. there's a lot to like about how his season has gone: he's gotten better every month, so despite the league getting tape on him he's been able to make adjustments to keep up rather than get torched once MLB hitters see his stuff. He's still got some things to work on: getting lefties out consistently, staying effective later in games (the 5th inning has been tough on him as he starts seeing guys that 3rd time through), etc. but for a guy getting his first shot in the big leagues? He's doing very well. Hopefully he doesn't need to get shut down early because of workload. He's already at a personal best for IP as a professional, made more starts than he's ever done going back through his college days, but it would be a good sign for his development if he can pitch through September and wind up with 110+ IP and 24 starts.
  20. jmlease1
    Just not sure what benefit there is in sending Jax down at this point. He's got to find a way to keep MLB hitters in the park, or he won't be starting in the majors. Right now he's getting lit up again and he's giving up way too many HRs. But I'm ok with tinkering with him at the MLB level to see if he can get it together. But he's starting to look like a long-man in the bullpen. Keeping the ball in the park was never Jax's problem before, but this is the difference between the majors and the minors. He's walking more guys than ever before, he's giving up more HRs than ever before and the slight uptick in K's doesn't compensate. He's got to do better if he wants to compete for a job next year and be more than organizational depth. Sano is playing really well, and it's nice to see. His Aug has been exactly what we all hoped he'd be and he's gotten better basically all season after a horrific start. He's going to finish the year with 25-30 HRs in about 125 games and he's made excellent adjustments as the season's gone along. The question for him is: can he start like this next year? He's back to being a really dangerous hitter again.
  21. jmlease1
    Celestino's continued success at the plate in AAA is a good sign for his future. I've always liked him as a player, and I'm glad they protected him in the Rule 5 (I'm certain he would have been taken...but it's possible he might have been returned). He's going to have a chance to compete for a spot on the roster next year as a right-handed bat who can play all three OF spots. I don't think he needs a call up at this point: he just needs ABs in AAA.
  22. jmlease1
    So, after Jax pitches well for 5 straight starts, you should pull him because his stats for the year are bad, but if he keeps pitching well then maybe he should get more chances? Look, Griffin Jax is probably a 5th starter at best who has pretty fine margins of error for success in MLB. He doesn't have tons of velocity or particularly filthy stuff that can bail him out of a mistake. he lives and dies on his command and get strikes at the edges of the plate. When he misses, professional hitters will crush it, and we saw that last night. he also had the worst possible umpire for his type of pitching: one who was brutally inconsistent and made a number of obviously bad calls. (When Dick Bremer is calling it out, you know things are ugly out there) For a guy like Jax, i think it can be tough to know when you should pull him on a night like this. How do you guess when the mistake is gonna happen? How much of the bad 5th is because jax had no idea what was going to be called a strike any longer? cave's steal attempt looked pretty bad, but the Boston catcher has not been good at throwing guys out this year. If he goes on an off-speed pitch he's in there, but I'm still not entirely sure why he's running in that situation.
  23. jmlease1
    Still feels like a fringe player to me. Might have a few successful years in the bullpen, but will also likely have some pretty "meh" years, assuming he sticks. He was just another guy with the Dodgers in his first taste of MLB: not bad, not great. He's had 2 good outings with the Mets, but that's way too soon to suddenly decide he's figured it out and can be a key bullpen piece. If he gives up a dinger in his next start, suddenly his numbers go to hell fast. His minor league numbers this year aren't good: he hunted up K's but also gave up a pile of hits. His minor league WHIP is...ok, nothing special. He's 28. Did the twins miss on him? Not really. He looks like a fringe guy who will get some chances in MLB but will probably bounce between AAA & MLB. And if the Twins "missed" on him, so did the Angels, the Dodgers, the rays...
  24. jmlease1
    Neither, really. Grabbing guys in the Rule 5 is a crap shoot; for every Akil Baddoo there's 3 Alejandro Machados. The Twins have been fairly aggressive in Rule 5 and even they only actually take a guy about 65% of the time. Look at the Twin's picks in the 90's: none of their picks actually stuck with the team the full season: 6 were returned to their original club and 1 was part of one of the greatest trades the twins ever made. Rule 5 picks are almost always pitchers that a team thinks they can stash in the bullpen for a season or position guys whose defense is good enough at a premium position that you can hang on to them while their bat catches up (which is still hard). The Twins have only taken 11 position players in 50 years; all of them except maybe 1 could play either C, SS, or CF...see a pattern here? Looking at Miranda's production and positions...he looked like a tough guy to stash. Moran probably slid through because a) he'd been not all that great in 2019, b) no one had any data on him for 2020, and c) he was already pegged in as a reliever, reducing his overall future value. Every team's 40-man has 2-10 marginal guys on it that are unlikely to become starters in MLB but have shown something that says they might be able to survive if tossed in the fire (maybe through peripherals on a young guy or various stints in the majors for older one) if needed to fill a spot...and if something breaks their way maybe they turn into more. To stick from Rule 5 you have to stay on a team's 26 man MLB roster the whole season, and that's a lot more competitive. Unless you're a team that's tanking like Detroit.
  25. jmlease1
    Austin Martin continues to get on base at a ridiculous pace. Still mostly just singles, but I expect the power growth to happen in the off-season when he a) gets fully healthy, and b) has time to re-work his swing and approach a bit with the coaching staff. Still feels like a very fine professional debut to me, especially for a guy who didn't get any time in the low minors, but got thrown in at AA right away. Since coming to Wichita, he's got almost the same number of walks and Ks, and that's awfully fun. I can't decide if I want Wallner to get pushed up faster or him to get left in place to work on cutting down the Ks. He's having a nice enough season: solid BA, good OBP, very good power but the K's are worrisome. He's played well enough overall for his level to earn a promotion, but would that K rate get exploited at AA? Where's the best place for him to work on getting that to a manageable level? (every time I talk about Wallner I feel like I should talk about the other high draft slugger: Sabato. Who was so bad early that even after the recent power surge he's still got brutal numbers. Still has a SLG below his OBP. There's a reason he's not a top 20 prospect any longer, and it has little to do with the trades bringing in guys above him. Oof.)
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