jmlease1

I think that's right. With no off-day and later in the season he likely leaves Lopez in, but with a planned off-day and a full bullpen why not get some guys some work and make sure you secure the win? Hopefully the follies with the bases loaded is more of a fluke than a trend. I tend to think that if we load up the bases a lot the runs will come.

Some people would rather be angry, I guess. I'm very happy with a win. Lopez did quite well, he should be pretty fun to watch this season.

twins are the better team, but it's baseball and anything can happen. Would be great to get off to a good start by whipping up on KC out the gate. Frankly, I'm just happy we're starting on the road since we might have snow flying this week in Mpls!

I'm pretty sure you're overstating the number of no-hitters the Twins had going last year, but whatever. My point was there was no predetermined yank point for the staff as a whole. Each pitcher is going to have a different calculus even if the results ended up being similar. Here's an example: Chris Archer was on a general pitch limit because of his health and effectiveness. He would get pulled from a start when he neared that limit regardless of how well he was pitching, because of that limit. Joe Ryan didn't have a limit anywhere near that. The Twins were perfectly comfortable letting him run up 90-100 pitches. He got pulled from a game after 7 innings of no-hit ball, though. Why? Because he was at 106 pitches, and was slated to start against Cleveland for his next start in a game that at the time was looked at as being critical to win the division. (We weren't totally out of it by then). If it had been the last week of the season and we were already eliminated, would they have let him go longer and try for the no-hitter? We'll never know for sure, but it seems likely. The decision on when to pull Joe Ryan wasn't predetermined before the game. let's look at Sonny Gray, since he always gets thrown into this conversation: he threw 75 or less pitches 6 times last season. 1 of those he had an injury, 2 he was making his first start coming off injury, and the remainder were games where he wasn't particularly effective (or just bad). he got pulled when he'd only given up 1 hit twice: once when he pulled up lame early in the year, and the other late in the season when he had walked 4 guys and was at 90 pitches through 5.

It's really more about a philosophical divide. There's a number of people who are particularly agitated about this because they don't like the ways the game of baseball has changed and evolved over the past 20-30 years. Longer starts (along with things like more hit & run plays, stolen bases, bunts, and a focus on hitting for average over hitting for power) are part of what they believe makes baseball "better". Others are less concerned about it.

There wasn't a predetermined "yank point" last year either. Each pitcher was evaluated based on their track record, their health, the game situation, their effectiveness, the pitch count, who was coming up, what the status of the bullpen was, etc. the fact that our starters got yanked after 5ish inning last season had a lot more to do with their performance than any pre-determined yank point. I'm expect similar evaluations to take place this season, but with a better starting rotation, the odds of them pitching more innings is higher. Gray gets cited all the time about being unhappy for getting pulled "early", but dude only made 24 starts last season because of various injuries and he's also said that he never got his legs under him after the fast spring training. So his lower inning totals might have something to do with protecting the pitcher from himself too. Dude can pitch, but he's also 10 years in and only thrown 150 innings in a MLB season 4 times, and made 30+ starts 4 times. He's not exactly the poster child for durability.

This team should be good. How good depends on a number of different players stepping up, i think, but the good thing is the Twins have depth answers if/when some of them get injured or falter. There's very few players here on scholarship and they clearly are in the mode where rookies will have to force their way on to the team rather than get their shot because there's no one else. Position players to watch for me: Gallo (can he find his swing again and be a useful player on offense again?), Buxton (the most exciting Twin, and if he's healthy for most of the season could contend for the MVP), Miranda (can he take another step forward as a hitter and settle in as a solid 3B?), Gordon (how much power does he bring to the table?), and Kirilloff (if his wrist is right finally, he's got a sweet swing). Pitchers to watch: Ryan (I love the way he works and if that split works for him against lefties he could be great), P. Lopez (am looking forward to watching him pitch, never saw a Marlins game last season), J. Lopez (if he can get it back together, then he's going to be a real weapon in the bullpen), Alcala (he looks healthy and has the talent to be a very effective RH reliever), and Moran (I love guys with filthy changeups. So fun!) There's questions that need to be answered, but also a lot of upside and opportunity. I think this team is contending for the division.

Larnach, Gordon...those guys can hit too. farmer crushes lefties. Solano hit lefties like he's Arraez, so these guys platoon pretty well until the two guys who were a little behind make their debut. I think you're overly pessimistic about the lineup. But beyond that, it's easier to run out a vet like Castro for a couple of weeks until Polanco comes back (a top 5 offensive 2B, BTW) then to jump a guy like Julien 2 levels just because he looked good in spring training. but this is about Coulombe. He's a fringe-y LHP who isn't elite against lefties, and is just ok against righties. Can't really be counted on to throw multiple innings, and is solidly behind Thielbar (who has been great) and Moran (who has been better than people realize and already thrown almost as many innings in a Twins uniform as Coulombe) who has big time upside with that elite changeup. not sure Coulombe is going to be missed all that much.

It's always beneficial to have players who can fill multiple roles if needed, especially for bench players. Some players might complain about not having a direct and limited position role (i.e., playing 3B every day and only playing 3B), there's not a lot of evidence that it actually hurts their performance when they're being placed in roles that they can actually do. It's a problem when you ask Miguel Sano to play OF to slot someone else in at 3B or 1B; it's not a problem when you ask Nick Gordon to prepare to play 2B & OF because he can actually play both spots competently and has experience there. Teams have limited bench options and when you have guys that have positional flexibility like Farmer it gives you more options to take a game late through pinch-hitting and/or defensive substitutions. While I would prefer that Polanco & Kirilloff were ready on Opening Day, having a bench of Farmer, Solano, Castro, and Jeffers certainly gives the Twins options throughout the game for the infield and outfield.

I liked Coulombe as lefty depth, but I'm much higher on Moran as a significant contributor. (and Moran is younger, cheaper, better, and has more upside) And much as I share everyone's frustration with the Twins sticking with Pagan, they're probably not competing for the same spot. How much work would we have gotten out of a 3rd lefty in the bullpen? as a decent, but not elite lefty that's where Coulombe would be in the pecking order behind Thielbar & Moran. Would have loved to have stashed him in AAA as insurance against injury/ineffectiveness, but he had an out and he took it. Good move by him. So let's not get too excited here: he's a 33 year-old reliever who has never had an elite season in his entire career and has bounced between decent and "meh". he was solid but unspectacular in 2021 and didn't pitch enough in 2020 or 2022 to be impactful for the Twins. And other teams are going to know about the out, so it's going to be very very hard to trade him for anything, even a bucket of balls.

Felt the exact same way. After 1:45 listening to all the ways things could go wrong for this team, and how the depth was already being wiped out, I was expecting predictions of the Twins in 3rd place, and instead both Gleeman and Bonnes have them contending for the division.

It certainly happens, and sometimes it even goes very well. Other times jumping guys straight from AA goes...poorly. My point is that it's hardly a sin to think Julien might be better off starting the season in AAA rather than jumping him straight in to MLB just because he looked good in spring training and had a breakthrough minor league season. I'm sure we will see Julien this season. And I think he's going to do well and get on base even in MLB. But I think they're making the smart play by starting him in AAA.

Seems about right. The good thing about where the Twins are right now is I don't think they'd finished last in any of these slots either. A couple of guys who are the best hitter at their position in the division, a couple of runners-up, and no one who is trash? That can score you quite a few runs.

As has been noted: Sands is being kept up to relieve. Ober is a starter, and the Twins (correctly) want to keep him stretched out as a starter to be available in case of injury to one of their current starters. We were never going to keep 6 starters, don't think there's a team in baseball that's going to roll out with a 6-man rotation to start the season. And frankly, all that's likely to do is put more stress on the bullpen. While Ober might have looked better in spring training than Maeda, Kenta is a veteran who, when healthy, was excellent for us. It's also much easier to slide him into a relief role if it proves that he doesn't have the ability to be a quality starter any longer after the injury. I'm a little baffled by the people who think Ed Julien is being wronged in some way by not getting a shot. While I'm really enthusiastic about his talent, let's keep in mind he's faced exactly zero pitches at AAA in his whole career. AA to MLB is a huge jump, even if he has looked good in spring training. With Polanco expected back (I'm also a little shocked at how many people have seemingly already decided that Polanco and Kirilloff are out for the year or something) soon, how much sense does it really make for Julien's development path to throw him in the fire? I mean, it worked so well for Celestino jumping him from AA to MLB! This way makes it easy to hang on to Castro for a couple of weeks and see what they have there and keep Julien on a smarter development path. We've got two minor injuries coming out of spring training from guys rehabbing injuries that knocked them out last season. That's not all that unusual. Miranda might be limited (but might be fine), and Buxton is just getting a little extra caution (he could play CF in an hour if he needed to) and care in the cold weather start. I'm feeling pretty good about where this team stands right now. My biggest questions are actually more about whether or not Gallo has himself back on track and how long a leash the front office will give him to get there, and Pagan...who has basically the same question. The great thing about the team's depth is Nick Gordon slots in easily at 2B against RHP, and Farmer or Solano can spell him against LHP. Larnach slots in easily in LF while Gallo mans 1B. Farmer or Castro can handle 3B if Miranda isn't ready for the field yet. Taylor has CF handled if they choose to give Buxton more time at DH early on. Even with 2 injuries out the gate, we still have no only the starting lineup well covered with established players, we still have backups.

I love that changeup from Moran. The walks aren't great, but it's a little easier to work around as a reliever who doesn't give up hard contact and hunts Ks. If he can keep the BB/9 to 4 or less, then he's a weapon in the bullpen. There's not much more for him to do in AAA and his upside is definitely higher than Coloumbe, so he'd be my pick if they only keep 2 LHP in the bullpen. But his splits make him viable as more than a lefty specialist, so if they kept another one he still fits nicely on the team. His presence is one of the reasons to feel better about the bullpen depth on this squad.

I think there's 3 teams that are competing for the division this season (Cle, Chi, MN) and two teams that are not (KC & Det). I don't know how much there really is to separate the three at the top right now, but I think I would tip Cle & MN just a bit of Chi. I think the ChiSox didn't do a lot to improve the team this season (addition by subtraction in LaRussa will help, but replacing Abreu's bat with Benintendi is asking for a lot of improvement on the defensive side to make up for the lesser production) and their depth remains relatively poor. Cleveland is a really interesting question. they probably still need another bat (Zunino doesn't do much for me either) because if any of their young guys regresses it could get thin fast. I did like the Bell signing for them; it's the sort of move the should have been doing for the past couple of years to shore up the offense. they have one of the best managers in baseball, but also overperformed their pythagorean levels last year, were elite in 1-run games, and had the fewest missed games to injury last season. Some of that is luck, and I don't like betting on luck. Twins have a deeper and better rotation, better depth, and a more settled bullpen than the team that led the division for most of the season in 2022. The defense should also be better. The offense should be as good, but it's a little hard to say considering how ruined by injuries the team was last season. Injuries sent this team from being a quality division contender for most of the season to the worst team in baseball the last month or so. If they have average health this season, they'll be there in the end.

Games played is a ridiculous metric to use when comping a starter against a reliever. And I'm sorry, including spring training stats from 2023 is meaningless. Graterol has only thrown 106 innings since the deal to Maeda's 173. is that a fair comparison? They took a risk on the potential injury. It paid off in 2020 and crapped out in 2021. But we desperately needed a starter in 2020 and because we had Maeda in the rotation that year we won the division. (we would not have won the division with Graterol replacing Maeda on the roster) BTW, Graterol was on the injured list twice last season, missed time for injury in 2021...shouldn't the Dodgers have seen that coming? Graterol is a nice reliever, but hardly game-changing. To put him into context, Graterol in 2022 (Probably his best season as a pro, when you consider health, effectiveness, and production) was much more than Griffin Jax. Graterol had a bit better FIP & ERA+, Jax pitched more innings, had a better K/9 and contributed more bWAR. Their WPA (a useful tool for comparing relievers) was basically even. The injury may end meaning the deal wasn't as great as it could have been for the Twins, but they hardly got taken for a ride. You have to give up something to get something, and in the pandemic season Maeda pitched like the ace people on this board keep screaming for.

Why? Maeda was great for us in 2020 and we needed him. Graterol has been a good but not great relief pitcher. (nothing else in the deal really mattered; Raley is out of the Dodgers system and Tanner Dodson doesn't look like anything...certainly not any better than Carmago) both teams got what they wanted, but I'd still trade relievers for starters every time. We'll see on Maeda. I expect him to be the 5th starter now, not the staff leader and it's always hard to know with spring training numbers because guys are sometimes just working on stuff. I would guess that absent an early injury, he's the guy who might miss a turn early in the season when we don't need that 5th guy. Maybe he'll be able to sharpen it back up with a few more games under his belt, or maybe he gets pushed into the bullpen in favor of Ober, Varland, or Woods Richardson. It is one of the nice things about the way the rotation is shaping up this season is there's no need to keep someone in there on scholarship. the depth isn't just for injuries.

Which is why the Twins traded Berrios. His value was high, the Twins didn't see him re-signing, and so they moved him. but they waited until not just his value was high but also when they were closing in on decision point for him. 1 1/2 seasons left of team control. they made a similar move on Pressly: high value, closing in on decision point. With Berrios you had rumblings that he wasn't going to sign, with Pressly you probably had the issue of he would have commanded more than the Twins are interested in paying for relievers. Polanco is a very different case. After 2021 (his supposed "max value" year), Polanco still had 4 years of team control available at well below market rate. Sure, the Twins could have gotten a lot of value for Polanco if they had put him on the market, but a) would have also lost a lot of present day value, b) assumed a lot more risk, and c) torpedoed opportunities to rebound quickly. If Polanco has a mostly healthy season (and missing a week or two out the gate won't change much about his value) he'd still command a pretty big return with two below market options remaining on his deal in the off-season. It might make sense to deal Polanco, with Royce Lewis returning, Brooks Lee and Ed Julien rising quickly, and Jose Miranda already arrived. But the time to make that move is next offseason, not 2021. (and saying they missed the window because he got hurt last year is 20/20 hindsight. Polanco had just come off 3 seasons in a row where he played a full season; presuming he'd get hurt in 2022 isn't the sort of guess you can realistically make)

Rodriguez is probably projected as more of a power tool guy, than a contact/hit tool player? DeAndrade might be a fun player to track this season to see how he develops.

Bullpens are a challenge. but overall, I agree with the Twins philosophies on building one. they clearly don't think this is an area where spending big money in free agency money gets you good value, and considering how fungible relievers are I generally agree. They don't want to have a Designated 9th Inning Pitcher (formerly called a closer), because they want their best bullpen guys to be firemen who can take out a team's most dangerous hitters late game, even it's the 7th or 8th inning. I absolutely agree with that! they definitely believe in giving guys who flamed out as starters or couldn't stay healthy in the role a chance in relief and shown success that way and I'm also a huge fan of the method. And they'll churn through back end bullpen guys during the season to figure out who they can count on, and it's shown pretty good success there too. Right now I feel ok about the bullpen. there's some high end talent there, there are guys that have proven success in the role, and they are definitely guys with upside. there are also question marks...but it's going to be rare not to have them. JMO. Having Duran at the back end is awesome; he's an absolute weapon. Jax and Thielbar had good seasons last year and there's every reason to believe Thielbar should be good again and a real possibility that Jax might improve. Alcala and Lopez have high end talent for sure, and I would argue Moran does as well with the awesome changeup. the last two spots have the most questions. Hoffman is interesting, but wild. As a middle relief guy to see what he's capable of he's an interesting option. He's certainly worth looking at to see how he converts over from starting and whether his spring training numbers translate. Pagan is the guy where I wonder if the front office is stuck in the ol' sunk cost fallacy. maybe they've "fixed" him, but maybe they've just convinced themselves that they can get something out of a guy they traded for, even after a pretty awful season from a guy who has had 2 good relief years out of 6 and none in the last 3. I would have moved on from him, just to save the psyche of twins fans from a guy who at best seems pretty fungible, but I could be wrong. It's interesting that Nick makes mention of Joe Smith as a troubling jack of judgment related to the bullpen. Smith was pretty good for the Twins the first 6 weeks of the season, and was doing what they signed him for: getting ground balls. The wheels started falling off the wagon, but the Twins still cut bait on him rather than hope he might regain his form (probably waited a little too long, but it's always a little tough with relievers to be sure with the small sample sizes) and even with his midseason collapse, he finished the year with a positive WPA. The Pagan decision-making is much more concerning than how they managed Smith IMHO.

Here's the thing though: is the goal to maximize value or to win games? After 2021, Polanco's value was super high...but the Twins were trying to figure out of they were in a rebuild or rebound situation. And while 2022 didn't go like they wanted, it was mostly injury related and the team was in contention for the division all the way until September before the wheels fell off. It seems unlikely that any return on Polanco would have provided MLB-ready talent, making the roster even thinner and less competitive. Thielbar is a 36 year-old reliever, and while he's coming off an excellent season, he's unlikely to bring back value equal to what he's going to provide the twins this season. The bullpen right now is pretty decent, with some solid pieces (Jax, Thielbar) a stud in Duran, and several guys who have question marks/variance (Alcala, Moran, Lopez, Pagan). Dealing Thielbar isn't going to bring back a player who can slot in to the bullpen right now. even with his value as high as it's ever going to be, he's still a 36 year-old reliever and it'd be very surprising to get anything more than a C prospect for him (likely an A-ball pitcher)...and that's the same deal that's going to be available at the trade deadline if he's pitching well and the Twins aren't contending. KC's mistakes in not trading were more related to their veterans rather than their prospects, though. they kept Alex Gordon & Whit Merrifield past their sell dates, even after it was clear that the team was in a rebuild. Mondesi had a good half season at age 22...if you're rebuilding you need to keep your young guys to see if you have a core to build around. I'm not sure it was obvious that they should have dealt him at that point. But their bigger mistake was in prospect development and draft evaluation, where they couldn't turn those highly rated/drafted prospects into significant MLB players.

I root so hard for Royce Lewis. I really hope he gets all the way back and gets to maximize his talent. If he doesn't, it won't be because of a lack of effort or heart! Everything I read about him, everything I hear something from him it just screams "Good Dude".

Here's hoping for good healthy in the twins rotation this year, because there's definitely a lot of talent there. It's easily the deepest Twins rotation I can recall; no one is in there on scholarship and there's no desperate veteran signing that we hope isn't washed up either. The minor league depth is good with Ober, Varland, and Woods Richardson...but it thins out after that to unproven guys and veteran retreads, but you can't expect to have 5 quality MLB starters waiting in AAA. The good part is after having years where we needed to sign 3-4 starters just to have a possibly functional rotation, we're nicely loaded up this year with a good design for next season even if the free agents all move on with Lopez, Ryan, and Paddack already being in place and at least one of Ober, Varland, and Woods Richardson likely to be ready to be a full time guy in MLB in 2024.

Cleveland should be very good again. The Josh Bell signing was exactly the kind of move they've needed to do for some time and with their payroll they really should have been in on a guy like Gallo as well: they need more offense. Ramirez is great, Gimenez had a breakout year, Kwan had an excellent rookie season, and Naylor had a nice breakout as well. Their pitching pipeline has continued to roll and is good enough to compete with anyone. They've also got one of the best managers in baseball, one of the few that is truly a difference-maker. They were a bit lucky last season: their pythagorean tips that one off, they were great in one-run games last season, and they were very healthy compared to the rest of the league, and with several young players having breakouts they could be subject to some regression. but they look like the team to beat in the AL Central right now. I think the Twins can make a run at them, but they should be a very good team.