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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Isola is doing well enough at the plate, but I'm disappointed that he hasn't caught in a month. Starting to look like he's not seen as really an option there if he's behind Banuelos on the catching depth chart, and I'm not sure he can hit enough to be a legit prospect at 1B. I thought Kala'i Rosario was showing enough to crack the top 20, and he seems to be trying to confirm my opinion, which I appreciate. :P
  2. jmlease1
    Well, this is why Pagan isn't a late-inning reliever. When he's wild and can't find the zone, the only way he has to get a strike is to drop a meatball over the heart of the plate. He's ok as a middle inning guy who can get 1+ innings for you of relatively low leverage work that probably needs to be yanked quickly if he's not throwing strikes, because he's liable to have that blowup inning when he gets lit up trying to throw a "get over" pitch. I don't know that it's really mental? I didn't want Pagan on this team this year because a) I didn't think he was going to be significantly better, b) the PTSD for the fanbase didn't make it worth the cost or the roster spot, and c) I thought there were plenty of veteran RH relief arms available in FA that were at least as good and had far less baggage. That opinion hasn't changed much, but cutting him because he blew the game last night doesn't really help much. he's been adequate as a middle inning guy so far. He blew last night, but before that he actually had a positive WPA. The FIP was very good, and in 11 of his 15 appearances before last night, he hadn't given up any runs. (before this west coast trip, he'd actually dropped his ERA back under 4, which was pretty good considering he had to eat a bad outing in Boston when Maeda got hurt) he is who we thought he'd be, really. The bigger issue is Alcala and Thielbar are hurt, Jax has been disappointing, and Moran is inconsistent so Pagan has been forced to work in higher leverage situations than he's really capable of. Unfortunately, not enough of the relief options from AAA have impressed (Stewart is ok, but is a little like Moran in his wildness). Winder and Sands have both disappointed, Rodriguez and De Leon look like just another guy, so that leaves Pagan doing work in situations where none of us are comfortable. Not doing more to support the bullpen is on the front office. It's probably the biggest miss this season from them really, because they could have done something for limited cost that would have shored things up. I understand why they thought they had this covered, but they've always had too much faith in Pagan's peripherals and "stuff".
  3. jmlease1
    I think this is right. Twins were hoping Miranda could handle 3B as a mostly every day player this season, but had contingencies in place with Farmer, Castro, and even Solano this year if necessary, with Royce Lewis as a potential option once he got healthy, and Brooks Lee coming up on the rail. Miranda stumbling a bit doesn't really change that much: Farmer has stepped in, and it looks like they're likely to go to Lewis if he continues to kick rehab in the butt...or back to Miranda if he turns his season around. Next season they'll be looking at someone from the Lewis/Miranda/Lee grouping to be the primary 3B, especially if Polanco stays or Julien is looked at a reasonable 2B option. 2025 they're going to be hoping that either Lewis or Lee have settled in at 3B, or Miranda stepped back up and seized the job. and run that forward for the next several years, until maybe Correa needs to shift down to 3B. The legion of infield prospects we're moving through the system has created a lot of depth (and it's why they were very comfortable dealing Steer)
  4. jmlease1
    I'm ready for adding something in to address the errors. electronic strike zone, a challenge system...let's just get it right. Clearly there are ways to do it without it slowing the game back down and the technology is there. It's not going to cost any umpiring jobs, so there's no real reason to object. Challenge system is probably fine: as Morneau was saying on the broadcast, we're really only looking at about 10-15 misses in a game, and most of those aren't going to be particularly egregious or in a situation that's very impactful. (smart) teams are going to hold their challenges for when it matters, i think. But it fixes something like Cuzzi's bad day. (Cuzzi's misses on Kirilloff were pretty bad just in absolute terms. but to get him on both sides of the plate in the same AB is pretty much inexcusable)
  5. jmlease1
    Maeda was the AL Cy Young runner up in 2020 and gutted through 21 starts (including a very nice July) as his elbow was unraveling. he was also excellent in his first start of the season and looking healthy in spring training. Slamming this decision is just 20/20 hindsight. (and Mahle was doing just fine for the Twins before his elbow exploded this year too) Ober did a great job last night and is absolutely a quality MLB starter. But he had an option and this kept him stretched out and ready. twins starting pitching has been fantastic this season, the decision has worked out fine.
  6. jmlease1
    Catcher is just so hard to fill with players that have any kind of balance, so if Crossetti can legit stick there and be an actual hitting threat I feel like you have to give some extra credit on position. I mean, the Dodgers started a guy who basically can't throw to 2nd last night. That tells you something about the dearth of catching in baseball.
  7. jmlease1
    The Ryan deal is the easy win: moving a 41-year DH on an expiring contract for a starting pitcher that has already had a very solid rookie season and so far has taken another step forward to be a front-line playoff caliber starter and potential all-star is a heck of a win. The Pressly deal is one that I think a lot of people come back to as a big loss, but I do understand the thought process behind the deal and it's important to note that both of the players the Twins got back in return made it to the majors in relatively short order. When the Twins moved Pressly might have been 2nd in the division, but they were 6 games under .500 and 8 games out of first. Pressly was 29 years old and while the K/9 had taken a big jump, he was still pretty hittable, so it wasn't glaringly obvious that he was going to be a shut-down reliever, especially having come off a pretty forgettable season the year before. I think it's also reasonable to say that the front office was anticipating more of a rebuild; the juiced ball Bomba Squad was a bit of a surprise. Celestino's screwed up development path (and now injury) and Alcala's injury have dinged this more than maybe it should, especially with the big bump in Pressly's salary that followed. The Mahle deal is the one that's worked out the worst, but the process behind it was pretty sound. I'd argue that the decision-making behind the Pressly deal was decent as well. The trade lists for this regime are pretty solid. I think their track record on free agents has been more problematic, where they've generally prioritized value over talent more often than not and taken too many fliers on reclamation projects.
  8. jmlease1
    I think Kala'i Rosario has done enough to merit a higher placement; he's producing well at high A at age 20 and looking like an interesting corner OF prospect. A little surprised that Cossetti didn't crack the top 30; I get that he's older, but if he can stick at catcher he's someone to watch. Again, I get that he's older, but he's crushing it in the FSL and that's not the easiest environment and he's almost certainly going to be moved up by midseason unless he completely tanks or gets hurt...I would think. I have no idea where to place Kyle Jones, Cory Lewis, and Zebby Matthews right now. they're all interesting college arms, but it's hard to know if anything they do in A-ball matters much?
  9. jmlease1
    It's in interesting question. It does look like his future might be as a multi-inning reliever in MLB, but at the same time with us having already delved into our starter depth, there may be a need for a spot start (or more) still before Maeda comes back and right now the only real other options are Headrick and SWR. At the same time, the twins are still looking for another reliable bullpen arm. Interesting question. the good news is Balazovic seems to have righted the ship for himself and is pitching like a real prospect again, rather than a guy looking for a life raft.
  10. jmlease1
    That was an absolutely elite play. Correa first had to go a ways to get it, had to react to farmer not being able to make a play on it in front of him, and then make a really long throw with velocity and accuracy. he placed the skip perfectly so the ball came off the grass cleanly and turned it into almost an easy play for Kirilloff. Loved that. Correa may be scrabbling and inconsistent at the plate right now, but it's not impacting his defense. Funny how Solano and Castro (who have been the most frequent "get rid of them!" targets around here, including by me) stepped up tonight. But it was good to get as many RH bats in the lineup tonight against Kershaw, who is still a monster, and the 2 LH bats were Kirilloff and Gallo who have relative neutral splits. I'm a big fan of Moran, even if his control can be maddening. I just love that change-up, and he got the job done last night with the bullpen a bit overtaxed from the long game the night before.
  11. jmlease1
    Nice game from Brooks Lee, who had been scuffling a little bit. Especially good to see him flash the power. But Royce Lewis is the story. Jumping back into the AAA and looking good. There might be a setback along the way, but he really does look healthy. I'm rooting so hard for this dude.
  12. jmlease1
    Early in the game I was thinking "here we go again" when Buxton got rung up on a curveball that never entered any part of the zone and you had to wonder if Kershaw was going to get the marginal pitches and Ober wasn't. (and to be fair, Kershaw was closer to the zone more often than Ober early) but the Twins hitters stuck with the game plan and made Kershaw really work. Ober looked wobbly in the first and then really settled down to contain a tough lineup with 6 very good innings. Very nice win. Here's hoping they pull off the win this afternoon and take the series.
  13. jmlease1
    That's fine if they're guys like Arraez at the plate (and can stay healthy, and play decent defense, etc); that's not fine when they're more like Astudillo. Willans Astudillo had a career Batting Average of .267. That's higher than 9 guys currently on the 16 man roster, and 14 of the 18 hitters that have taken ABs for the Twins this season, for this season. You will lose a LOT more games with a lineup of Astudillos over the current group. But the ball will be in play!
  14. jmlease1
    I'm a little surprised to see Julien on the list. Not because I don't think he's a very talented hitting prospect, but these lists always seem to favor projection over production and are much less interested in prospects who are 24 and in AAA. 4 prospects on the list for a team that's currently in contention is pretty good, especially when we have the #5 pick in the upcoming draft.
  15. jmlease1
    Talented player and will have to be protected this year in the Rule 5, but he's got to cut down on the Ks. I'm thrilled to see his power output blossom, but this level of K-rate seems unsustainable. He's even higher than Wallner was last season at Wichita, and it certainly made Wallner's life difficult in his first attempts at MLB.
  16. jmlease1
    Two highly impactful calls, though. Umps botching it up in high leverage situations is at least as frustrating as players striking out when the bases are loaded or a pitcher walking in a run. WPA tells a lot about who is most responsible for a win or a loss: last night the worst performers for the Twins were (in order) Alex Kirilloff, Pablo Lopez, and Griffin Jax. How much of Kirilloff's -0.391 should be assigned to Cuzzi? because I'm pretty sure that phantom K in the 10th accounts for a big ol' chunk of it.
  17. jmlease1
    I don't really understand this kind of comment. Do you expect Rocco to rip his own players in the post-game? That's just not how modern managing works. It's always been super-overrated as a motivational tactic, and ends up being counter-productive. Who calls the pitches? that would be the catcher. Lopez did a great job in the 11th, and couldn't quite hold it in the 12th when he didn't get a borderline call on the 5th pitch of the AB (considering Cuzzi's "strike zone"). It's not like he couldn't find the strike zone at all.
  18. jmlease1
    They would not be talking about him like he was a Hall of Famer today. Kingman wasn't that good of an offensive player. He hit HRs, but that was it; Kingman only hit 20+ doubles 3 times in 16 seasons. He didn't walk much; only cleared 50 BBs 3 times as well. He's a more neutral version of Adam Dunn (Dunn was significantly better on offense and one of the worst defensive players in MLB, impressively worse than Kingman) and no one is considering Dunn for the Hall. Kingman wasn't exactly a great teammate either, but that's less relevant. Dunn was a 2 time all-star, Kingman got 3...both of them probably deserved maybe ONE. Joey Gallo is closing in on Kingman in terms of bWAR already and he hasn't even finished his 9th season yet. No one is talking about Gallo has a Hall of Fame-type player either, although Gallo was more deserving in both of his all-star campaigns than Dunn or Kingman in any of theirs. Carew absolutely would not have been in the Hall if he hit .209. I I guess I don't understand the point? It's like saying Wade Boggs wouldn't have been in the Hall if he hit .209. Or Reggie Jackson wouldn't be in the hall if he'd only hit 400 HRs. Getting a lot of hits was key to Carew's success, but he's not in the hall just because he got a ton of singles: Carew drew 50+ BBs 10 times. 20+ 2Bs 13 times. 10+ 3Bs 5 times. OBP over .400 8 times. SLG% over .425 9 times. (for comparison, Arraez hasn't finished with an OBP over .400 yet in his career, though he's on track right now. SLG of .425 once, but again on track this year.) Bating average isn't meaningless, but it is limited. It describes only a small portion of a player's offensive contributions. It still seems to be focused on by a lot of people because does illustrate players that play an aesthetically pleasing style of baseball, even if it's not necessarily always a winning one.
  19. jmlease1
    wow. when the other announcing team is that explicit in how badly Kirilloff got screwed...that's something. I am indeed ready for the electronic strike zone. It seems like it's every game now that there's a howler.
  20. jmlease1
    Not a bad draft. Lewis, Rooker, Ober, Contreras, and Barnes all made it to MLB with the Twins, and Lewis' problems have had nothing to do with talent or ability to translate his tools into production, only injury which you just can't predict. (admittedly, Rooker & Contreras didn't really produce anything for the Twins and Barnes was a fill-in...but just making it to MLB is hard!) Leach was a miss, but a lot of 2nd round picks bust. especially teenage pitchers. Enlow looks like he might be back on track and he's another player whose problem is entirely tied to injury rather than to ability. If he's back on the 40-man after this season and finishes in AAA, that will be very nice. Was Lewis the right pick? It's still too early to tell. Wright had one good season, but at 27 hasn't really produced for Atlanta, despite pitching in parts of 6 different seasons for them. 2.6 bWAR over 6 is not great. Greene definitely looks good for the Reds, but McKay is a bust, and while Gore has been pretty good this season his control has been shaky his whole pro career and I question whether he'll be looking good by fall. Not one single star has emerged from the top 10 picks to this point (Greene is the closest) reminding us again what a crapshoot the MLB draft still is. Only 1 all-star appearance from anyone in the 1st round to date (Trevor Rogers, and that's looking a little fluky). It'll be interesting to see if Rooker holds up all season or if he's just shining on a truly terrible team. I can't fault the Twins for moving him; he didn't look good in 2021 for the Twins and got a fair number of chances. He couldn't crack the KC lineup last season either, despite them being terrible and needing hitting. It was pretty understandable if people thought he was a AAAA player at his age, and it looks like he's made some substantial changes in his approach this year. Unusual for a guy to figure it out at 28, but good for him.
  21. jmlease1
    I think he might have challenged for Castro's spot without the injury in spring training. This latest injury stinks for him because until Lewis is ready, he might have gotten a chance if someone else had gone down. He doesn't have a big window in which to impress, unfortunately, because there are a lot of prospects that play his positions with a better pedigree and higher upside.
  22. jmlease1
    Rod Carew was a hall of famer, so...no. Carew was substantially better on offense for his career, in part because he also walked more than Kingman. Carew also didn't just slap a bunch of singles; he had 45% more doubles and 4 1/2 times as many triples than Kingman, which makes up to a degree for the many more HRs that Kingman hit. Kingman was also a rotten defender, and Carew was a decent one. The Twins were better off with Carew not because of just his batting average, but because he also had a better on-base %, a better OPS, a better OPS+, and was a much better defensive player. I mean, you're comparing an 18-time all-star vs a 3 time all-star (who played on teams that didn't have a lot of other options and was a marginal to poor choice all three years), a no-doubt Hall of Famer, MVP, and RoY against a guy who was...just a guy. Arraez is a very good player and currently having a Carew-like year. but it's been less than 1/4 of the season for a player that struggled down the stretch last year because of chronic leg problems. He's healthy now and playing great (good for him! I love Luis Arraez) but he did similar things for the Twins last season before falling off significantly. he's struggled against lefties his whole career and has a pretty significant split again this season. So far, Gallo and Arraez have been pretty similar in terms of their overall offensive contributions, albeit in very different ways. Arraez could end up providing more total value over the course of the season (and has so far) if he's able to stay healthy and at 2B...but that's a pretty huge if. Too early to really compare him to Rod Carew.
  23. jmlease1
    The lineup definitely got off to a slow start this season, with some players underperforming and others getting pretty unlucky out there (i.e., hard hit balls going straight at someone). Obviously the offensive explosion from this weekend isn't sustainable, but there's a real likelihood that more consistent run support is on the way. A lot of us have ben very hopeful about Kirilloff; the bat plays, it's just a question of whether or not he's healthy. So far, so good on that end of things, and he adds something a little different to the lineup, potentially. It's still relatively small sample sizes, but he also hasn't presented big splits either, so he shouldn't need to be platooned much. I'll be interested to see if he's still showing this excellent strike zone judgment as the season progresses, because if he's refined that and keeps drawing walks when they don't give him anything worth swinging at, he's going to continue to be a force. Having Polanco back is also a big addition, even if he's dropped off a bit from his season debut. He's a threat in the lineup and one of the things we saw from Bomba Squad days was how much a deeper lineup could exhaust a pitcher. With Taylor showing a better power stroke this season, Vazquez is really the only zero in the lineup right now. The big question for me is whether or not Gordon can find his form again. he's still not looking good at the plate and while he's been a little unlucky, he's also been bad, reverting back to some old habits i think. It would be nice to have him be a more solid bench bat, especially with Solano and Castro doing little to impress.
  24. jmlease1
    Great to see the offense have another big day. Stroman has been really good this season, so knocking him out early is pretty dang good. Good work on offense up and down the order. Kirilloff's wrist must be feel good, but I'm also glad to see Correa looking like he's rounding into form. Varland did a nice job front-running the game. Good sign when the biggest problem is him giving up a couple of solo shots when we have a big lead. (I do worry a little about his propensity to give up the long ball) Like the way the Twins are defending home territory. Always happy to see a series win. Don't care for having position players pitch, and I have to say it seems pretty silly for 1 out. (though we may have seen why the Twins decided not to bring back Fulmer)
  25. jmlease1
    Batting average is still a bit overrated, but it's still more useful than RBIs in telling you things about who the player is and how much they contribute to the offense.
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