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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Two highly impactful calls, though. Umps botching it up in high leverage situations is at least as frustrating as players striking out when the bases are loaded or a pitcher walking in a run. WPA tells a lot about who is most responsible for a win or a loss: last night the worst performers for the Twins were (in order) Alex Kirilloff, Pablo Lopez, and Griffin Jax. How much of Kirilloff's -0.391 should be assigned to Cuzzi? because I'm pretty sure that phantom K in the 10th accounts for a big ol' chunk of it.
  2. jmlease1
    I don't really understand this kind of comment. Do you expect Rocco to rip his own players in the post-game? That's just not how modern managing works. It's always been super-overrated as a motivational tactic, and ends up being counter-productive. Who calls the pitches? that would be the catcher. Lopez did a great job in the 11th, and couldn't quite hold it in the 12th when he didn't get a borderline call on the 5th pitch of the AB (considering Cuzzi's "strike zone"). It's not like he couldn't find the strike zone at all.
  3. jmlease1
    They would not be talking about him like he was a Hall of Famer today. Kingman wasn't that good of an offensive player. He hit HRs, but that was it; Kingman only hit 20+ doubles 3 times in 16 seasons. He didn't walk much; only cleared 50 BBs 3 times as well. He's a more neutral version of Adam Dunn (Dunn was significantly better on offense and one of the worst defensive players in MLB, impressively worse than Kingman) and no one is considering Dunn for the Hall. Kingman wasn't exactly a great teammate either, but that's less relevant. Dunn was a 2 time all-star, Kingman got 3...both of them probably deserved maybe ONE. Joey Gallo is closing in on Kingman in terms of bWAR already and he hasn't even finished his 9th season yet. No one is talking about Gallo has a Hall of Fame-type player either, although Gallo was more deserving in both of his all-star campaigns than Dunn or Kingman in any of theirs. Carew absolutely would not have been in the Hall if he hit .209. I I guess I don't understand the point? It's like saying Wade Boggs wouldn't have been in the Hall if he hit .209. Or Reggie Jackson wouldn't be in the hall if he'd only hit 400 HRs. Getting a lot of hits was key to Carew's success, but he's not in the hall just because he got a ton of singles: Carew drew 50+ BBs 10 times. 20+ 2Bs 13 times. 10+ 3Bs 5 times. OBP over .400 8 times. SLG% over .425 9 times. (for comparison, Arraez hasn't finished with an OBP over .400 yet in his career, though he's on track right now. SLG of .425 once, but again on track this year.) Bating average isn't meaningless, but it is limited. It describes only a small portion of a player's offensive contributions. It still seems to be focused on by a lot of people because does illustrate players that play an aesthetically pleasing style of baseball, even if it's not necessarily always a winning one.
  4. jmlease1
    wow. when the other announcing team is that explicit in how badly Kirilloff got screwed...that's something. I am indeed ready for the electronic strike zone. It seems like it's every game now that there's a howler.
  5. jmlease1
    Not a bad draft. Lewis, Rooker, Ober, Contreras, and Barnes all made it to MLB with the Twins, and Lewis' problems have had nothing to do with talent or ability to translate his tools into production, only injury which you just can't predict. (admittedly, Rooker & Contreras didn't really produce anything for the Twins and Barnes was a fill-in...but just making it to MLB is hard!) Leach was a miss, but a lot of 2nd round picks bust. especially teenage pitchers. Enlow looks like he might be back on track and he's another player whose problem is entirely tied to injury rather than to ability. If he's back on the 40-man after this season and finishes in AAA, that will be very nice. Was Lewis the right pick? It's still too early to tell. Wright had one good season, but at 27 hasn't really produced for Atlanta, despite pitching in parts of 6 different seasons for them. 2.6 bWAR over 6 is not great. Greene definitely looks good for the Reds, but McKay is a bust, and while Gore has been pretty good this season his control has been shaky his whole pro career and I question whether he'll be looking good by fall. Not one single star has emerged from the top 10 picks to this point (Greene is the closest) reminding us again what a crapshoot the MLB draft still is. Only 1 all-star appearance from anyone in the 1st round to date (Trevor Rogers, and that's looking a little fluky). It'll be interesting to see if Rooker holds up all season or if he's just shining on a truly terrible team. I can't fault the Twins for moving him; he didn't look good in 2021 for the Twins and got a fair number of chances. He couldn't crack the KC lineup last season either, despite them being terrible and needing hitting. It was pretty understandable if people thought he was a AAAA player at his age, and it looks like he's made some substantial changes in his approach this year. Unusual for a guy to figure it out at 28, but good for him.
  6. jmlease1
    I think he might have challenged for Castro's spot without the injury in spring training. This latest injury stinks for him because until Lewis is ready, he might have gotten a chance if someone else had gone down. He doesn't have a big window in which to impress, unfortunately, because there are a lot of prospects that play his positions with a better pedigree and higher upside.
  7. jmlease1
    Rod Carew was a hall of famer, so...no. Carew was substantially better on offense for his career, in part because he also walked more than Kingman. Carew also didn't just slap a bunch of singles; he had 45% more doubles and 4 1/2 times as many triples than Kingman, which makes up to a degree for the many more HRs that Kingman hit. Kingman was also a rotten defender, and Carew was a decent one. The Twins were better off with Carew not because of just his batting average, but because he also had a better on-base %, a better OPS, a better OPS+, and was a much better defensive player. I mean, you're comparing an 18-time all-star vs a 3 time all-star (who played on teams that didn't have a lot of other options and was a marginal to poor choice all three years), a no-doubt Hall of Famer, MVP, and RoY against a guy who was...just a guy. Arraez is a very good player and currently having a Carew-like year. but it's been less than 1/4 of the season for a player that struggled down the stretch last year because of chronic leg problems. He's healthy now and playing great (good for him! I love Luis Arraez) but he did similar things for the Twins last season before falling off significantly. he's struggled against lefties his whole career and has a pretty significant split again this season. So far, Gallo and Arraez have been pretty similar in terms of their overall offensive contributions, albeit in very different ways. Arraez could end up providing more total value over the course of the season (and has so far) if he's able to stay healthy and at 2B...but that's a pretty huge if. Too early to really compare him to Rod Carew.
  8. jmlease1
    The lineup definitely got off to a slow start this season, with some players underperforming and others getting pretty unlucky out there (i.e., hard hit balls going straight at someone). Obviously the offensive explosion from this weekend isn't sustainable, but there's a real likelihood that more consistent run support is on the way. A lot of us have ben very hopeful about Kirilloff; the bat plays, it's just a question of whether or not he's healthy. So far, so good on that end of things, and he adds something a little different to the lineup, potentially. It's still relatively small sample sizes, but he also hasn't presented big splits either, so he shouldn't need to be platooned much. I'll be interested to see if he's still showing this excellent strike zone judgment as the season progresses, because if he's refined that and keeps drawing walks when they don't give him anything worth swinging at, he's going to continue to be a force. Having Polanco back is also a big addition, even if he's dropped off a bit from his season debut. He's a threat in the lineup and one of the things we saw from Bomba Squad days was how much a deeper lineup could exhaust a pitcher. With Taylor showing a better power stroke this season, Vazquez is really the only zero in the lineup right now. The big question for me is whether or not Gordon can find his form again. he's still not looking good at the plate and while he's been a little unlucky, he's also been bad, reverting back to some old habits i think. It would be nice to have him be a more solid bench bat, especially with Solano and Castro doing little to impress.
  9. jmlease1
    Great to see the offense have another big day. Stroman has been really good this season, so knocking him out early is pretty dang good. Good work on offense up and down the order. Kirilloff's wrist must be feel good, but I'm also glad to see Correa looking like he's rounding into form. Varland did a nice job front-running the game. Good sign when the biggest problem is him giving up a couple of solo shots when we have a big lead. (I do worry a little about his propensity to give up the long ball) Like the way the Twins are defending home territory. Always happy to see a series win. Don't care for having position players pitch, and I have to say it seems pretty silly for 1 out. (though we may have seen why the Twins decided not to bring back Fulmer)
  10. jmlease1
    Batting average is still a bit overrated, but it's still more useful than RBIs in telling you things about who the player is and how much they contribute to the offense.
  11. jmlease1
    Gallo is who he is. He's never going to get a ton of hits, but as hard as he hits the ball he's going to get a high % of doubles and HRs. He's drawing walks, he's hitting for power, and he's got an OPS+ of 143 while playing gold-glove caliber defense. He doesn't need to hit .250 to be a plus for the offense; he just can't be down at .160 like he was in NY and LA, with a serious power outage. Despite the low BA, he's still got one of the best OBPs on the roster.
  12. jmlease1
    What a world we live in where 95mph fastballs are only average-ish velocity. Varland has talent but he needs to keep working on refining his pitches, hitting his spots, and working his pitch mix. The changeup is generating whiffs, but when he misses with it, it's getting hammered. He probably needs that velocity on his 4-seamer to keep the other pitches playing up, but he hasn't been able to consistently spot it enough to keep it from getting thumped way too often. The slider is better than advertised and it's good to see the cutter avoiding hard contact more this season. He's going to get a lot of opportunity this season to show he can be a part of this rotation. Looking forward to seeing how he does.
  13. jmlease1
    I think it's going to be an interesting decision on Severino. He's pounding the ball right now, but he's also got a million strikeouts, which is concerning. Glad to see Royce get a couple of hits early in the rehab assignment. Cossetti sure seems to be lining himself up for an early promotion. Would like to see him moved up sooner rather than later, see how he does against better competition.
  14. jmlease1
    An excellent win. Ryan is off to a fantastic start this season and the new pitch mix sure seems to have him in a groove. It'll be interesting to see if he can improve a little on finishing off hitters faster; it's basically the only thing he needs to get better on right now. Nice to see the offense break out, lot of guys had been scrabbling, so it's good to see several guys get it going at once. Correa looks like he might be heating up, which we need. Gallo is going to be a boom or bust player and that's going to be frustrating, but the highs have been higher than the lows and his defense makes it much more palatable to get through the slumps. Kirilloff is rolling, which is wonderful to see. His bat has always had the potential to be special, and it's really only the injuries that have ever held him back. The power production is the best sign right now: every time his wrist has been barking at him, his power has fallen down through the floor. Sands really can't give up 5 walks when the team is up big like that. He got through it, but next time he's going to get killed. Happy he finished off the game, but he's got to do better. He may be riding a 1.50 ERA, but his FIP and WHIP are dreadful; he's been more lucky than good.
  15. jmlease1
    But there was no injury history on Dyson, who was pitching at the time. Did SF intentionally sell us damaged goods at the deadline? Maybe, but good luck proving it. And without being able to show the Twins knew Dyson was injured, Mahle's the only deadline deal we've made where the guy was a known injury risk.
  16. jmlease1
    well, I'm much higher on Pablo Lopez than you are (I think it's silly to downgrade a player because he's "nice"), but I do think the adjustments Ryan has been making are for real and he's rising as a starter. The split-change is very effective down in the zone and he works his fastball very well up in the zone and being able to consistently change a hitter's eye level with pitches that are hard to square up on is an excellent combo. I've been a big Joe Ryan fan ever since they acquired him, and it's great to see him continue to improve. The pitch clock clearly doesn't bother him as he always worked pretty quickly, and he shows no fear on the mound.
  17. jmlease1
    Gray was very effective but not cruising. He was also at 94 pitches, not 91 if that makes a difference. He did a really good job but it wasn't easy for him to finish off a lot of those guys, and he definitely got the occasional "strike" that was out of the zone, which gets dangerous later in the game if you don't keep getting them. Think it's a coin flip whether you let him try and finish the 6th, but considering Happ had already gotten Gray twice I can understand not liking the matchup. The offense is the real problem, though. They've got to get more hits, they've got to put more baserunners on. Disappointing from Buxton who just couldn't seem to adjust to Smyly's stuff; he wasn't off by much, but those towering pop-ups were frustrating. The bullpen wasn't great, but I'm not going to bark about them not holding the lead when the offense only puts 2 on the board and looks very toothless all day.
  18. jmlease1
    That describes Mahle. Who else? Dyson? We bought damaged goods there, but there was no history of it. (Paddack, Pagan, Maeda, and P.Lopez were acquired in the offseason. Pineda had injury issues but was signed as a free agent. Jorge Lopez wasn't injury-prone. Happ was signed in the offseason and had no recent history of real health problems. Romo didn't have injury problems. Ryan had no injury problems) This team hasn't made a lot of moves for pitching around the deadline, and there's little to suggest they've got a pattern of going for injury-prone pitchers at the deadline.
  19. jmlease1
    I'm just happy to have Royce back out on the field. Hope he's feeling good. Hope Emmanuel Rodriguez is starting to settle in. He's a really interesting prospect. feels like he's still adjusting to a new level coming off the injury, because holy cow is he whiffing a ton. Hoping he stays healthy and in the lineup for the next month or so and we can really see where he's at, because he has a ton of talent.
  20. jmlease1
    I dunno. Steer doesn't look like he has that much of a ceiling to me. He's playing ok right now, but he's looking like a below average hitter and average defender, and would be behind Miranda, Julien, Lewis, Martin, and Lee in the infield prospect pecking order. Hajjar may or may not ever be anything; he's only got 52 innings of pro baseball so far, none above A ball and hasn't pitched this season because of injury. (and has already been dealt a second time) CES was the best prospect of the bunch, and might have a special bat...but as much as he's torn up AAA so far, it's only been 16 games (he's already missed almost 20 games this year?) and he's a butcher in the field. It was a risk that didn't turn out, but at least the process made sense. This wasn't dumping our only catching prospect for a mediocre reliever or a massive overpay. It's a miss on the front office's ledger for sure, but at least it's one that was a calculated risk with upside to the play. regarding the "we could have had Castillo for basically the same amount!" comment: No, we couldn't. Marte was a consensus top-20 prospect; we would have needed to put Royce Lewis in the deal to get Castillo and still have Hajjar and at least Steer or CES to get that deal done. None of the guys we had in the Mahle trade were near Marte's rating at the time, and Arroyo was well thought of as well (a consensus top 100 prospect going into this season) and Moore is pretty even with Hajjar.
  21. jmlease1
    right about where he should be. wOBA: .356 xwOBA: .361 He's crushing the ball when he makes contact (exit velocity is in the top 2% of the league), his hard hit % is the top 1% of the league. and he misses a lot: bottom 1% in the league in xBA and bottom 5% in K rate. Draws his walks. Might not be the most aesthetically pleasing player in baseball, but he's adding pretty good value for the Twins. (The fact that he's a plus defender in the OF and quality at 1B makes the Ks a lot easier to swallow for me) He hasn't been particularly lucky or unlucky this season, he's just looking like Joey Gallo.
  22. jmlease1
    Any series win is a good win, but taking two of three against a pretty good Padres teams feels even better. they're doing a very fine job of defending home territory this season. Still some issues to work on with the offense, but the rotation will keep us in every game. Ober was good enough today to get the job done. I was a little underwhelmed with the Farmer acquisition at the time, but that was also when it looked like he might be our starting SS. He's definitely a tough guy who plays hard and his ability to slot in easily at so many positions is excellent. Really impressed that after getting hit again he came back with a Big Fly. (FYI, the "What's Next" has the days wrong for the Cubs series)
  23. jmlease1
    It's a shame. I think the Twins were willing to take the risk on the shoulder because there hadn't been signs of real structural issues, plus they were trading from areas of strength. Until this year, to my knowledge, there wasn't any indicators of a elbow problem; doubtful they would have made anywhere near the same kind of investment in prospects if that was on the table. I thought it was a fair trade at the time (you have to give to get) and Mahle could have stabilized the rotation last season and positioned the Twins well for this year. CES was the only prospect I was really missing from whom we sent over (while Steer is playing for Cincy, I think his upside is limited. CES is a butcher on defense basically everywhere, but the bat might be special. Hajjar was interesting, but hasn't even pitched this season). Reasonable risk, especially considering where the Twins were in the standings and the needs in the rotation, but it didn't pan out. I'd be willing to consider a "rehab contract" for Mahle, but let's see where the 40-man shakes out. Is saving him for a last 2024 return/2025 option going to be worth it? It really depends on how many guys we need to protect next year, I think and who knows where we'll be by then. We do have some guys that are for sure moving off the roster this off-season: Castro, Solano, Gray (seems likely), Maeda (seems likely), Garlick, maybe Kepler or Polanco, possibly Gallo depending on how the year goes, or guys like Pagan, Henriquez, or maybe Celestino...but there will also be prospects that need to be protected too. You can never have too many starting pitchers, but Mahle's not an option that can be counted on.
  24. jmlease1
    Yeah, I'll be interested to see where this goes. I don't have a good feel for how much room we have to maneuver on the 40-man for 2024 right now. I wouldn't be opposed to a "rehab extention" if we're not too sqeezed on the 40-man in the offseason?
  25. jmlease1
    Tough beat. Probably good to make the call now and get it over with I guess? As much as it makes sense to try and avoid surgery whenever possible, it would be even worse for him if he tried to rest and rehab it for a couple of months and then still had to have the TJ anyways. Bummer. I liked Mahle and thought he could have been a difference-maker.
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