GKuehl

Kepler for Wallner Saturday or Sunday, whenever Kepler is healthy. Wallner needs to be getting consistent at-bats, which is unlikely to happen with Larnach, Kepler, and Gordon hoarding the corner OF starts. Varland for Sands for today's start. Winder, Headrick, or Megill for Varland tomorrow. I would love to see Winder healthy enough to fill a middle reliever role. It's become evident we don't need a long man in the bullpen, and Winder likely ends up as a reliever anyway due to durability concerns -- Winder could be the next Griffin Jax. Gallo for Garlick whenever Gallo's healthy. I'm not too concerned about Garlick passing through waivers -- it would be nice if we could keep him around in St. Paul, but even if another team claims him, I'm guessing that he would be back on waivers within a few weeks. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a few weeks whenever/if Polanco and Kirilloff are ready to join the big league club (provided that the current roster stays healthy which ......... is unlikely, but we can dream). My guess would be that Polanco takes Castro's spot with Kirilloff taking Julien's spot. HOWEVER, what if Julien is tearing the cover off the ball as our leadoff man? This is where it could get really interesting, especially since Julien can DH once Buxton is healthy enough to play CF and also rotate through at 1B and 2B. Would Gordon be on the chopping block if he keeps failing to produce? Would Kirilloff just spend time in the AAA? Would Larnach be a candidate for AAA? I know this hypothetical won't come to fruition because someone will be dealing with an injury and need some IL time, but I would love to see what would happen if this team could stay healthy.

Jovani Moran’s rough start to the year makes me wish even more that we hadn’t let Danny Coulombe go for nothing (especially considering Moran still has options). We could use another sole LHP in the bullpen right about now.

If Buxton continues to need consistent time at DH over the next 5 years, losing CES won’t hurt too bad, considering he’s likely to be a negative in the field, even at 1B. Although both Steer and CES will likely be good regulars at the MLB level, our farm system is full of near-MLB ready prospects like Julien, Lee, Lewis, and Martin that made Steer and CES particularly expendable.

Sands continues to feel like a waste of a roster spot. I don’t think there will be many games where we need a reliever to pitch 3+ innings, especially considering the depth of this starting staff.

I'll be curious to see how the Saints manage their rotation. That is a lot of capable starters that the team will want to keep fully stretched out and, especially in the case of Varland, SWR and Headrick, gaining experience. I'm guessing they'll want Ober, Varland, SWR, and Headrick to pitch every 5th or 6th day, so it might be tough for Sanchez, Dobnak, and Balazovic to get into a starter's rhythm. It also seems likely that Megill will serve in the closer role. Could be some good experience for him -- he'll probably be in the Majors fairly soon, considering he's on the 40-man.

It actually made some sense to pull Pablo Lopez after 5 1/3. Thielbar had started warming up the inning before when Lopez had the bases loaded with 1 out in the 5th inning to face Pasquantino (for the lefty on lefty matchup). We know how much Rocco hates for a guy to warm up but not use him in the game, so when Lopez got out of the jam, it seemed somewhat natural to use Thielbar, especially early in the season where our bullpen is fresh. Also, Lopez was cruising for the first 3 innings but ran into some trouble in both the 4th and 5th innings, so Rocco probably didn't want to test his luck.

Fantastic pitching throughout the game -- Pablo Lopez did a good job getting out of a few jams, and the bullpen was lights out (great to see our 4 big guns in the bullpen looking really good right out of the gate).

With the quality of our rotation, the opportunity for a long reliever to go 2-3 innings is much smaller than it was last year when Bundy and Archer were starting 40% of our games. I don’t see the need for a guy like Sands.

In your hypothetical, they could have used Coulombe for a week or two and then DFA’d him and called up Sands. Or another reliever might get injured and we wouldn’t want Coulombe on the St. Paul-Minneapolis express. The “fascination” stems from the fact we just lost a pitcher for nothing who had a 2.92 ERA in 49.1 innings as a Twin.

What a bad turn of events — first we learn that we’re keeping Cole Sands in the major league bullpen to have a 4.75 ERA and only pitch mop up innings and now we learn that we just lost a solid major league reliever for nothing. I’ve been saying for weeks that Coulombe should make the opening day roster. This looks especially bad since Sands has options and could have been called up the instant one of our relievers inevitably gets a hangnail.

Paddack needing Tommy John definitely made the rotation even worse last year than it already was. I’m looking forward to seeing if he can impact this year’s team in the 2nd half.

I've been on the Coulombe hype train, but it seems like Hoffman has the inside track on the final bullpen spot. This makes sense considering their respective contract situations, with Hoffman able to opt out of his Twins contract if he isn't on the major league roster. Coulombe can start the year in AAA and serve as the next man up in the bullpen when injury strikes (which would require a corresponding move -- i.e. moving Henriquez to the 60-day IL).

DANNY COULOMBE

I keep hoping that the Twins will roll with Ober as the #5 starter over Maeda. While I understand the argument behind starting Maeda and keeping Ober warm in AAA until one of our starters inevitably gets hurt, it feels difficult to justify Maeda holding a rotation spot over Ober after watching Spring Training, especially considering their respective performances and the fact that Ober is now touching 94 MPH with the fastball. Even prior to undergoing TJ Surgery, it seemed like Maeda was in decline. His fastball velocity is hovering around the danger zone of 90 MPH, and while he's still capable of getting guys out because of the quality of his off-speed pitches, his control has been lacking so far this Spring. I'm confident that if Carlos Correa or Byron Buxton were asked "Who gives you the better chance to win a game on May 14th, Bailey Ober or Kenta Maeda?" (and they could respond honestly) they would answer Bailey Ober. Starting the year with Maeda in the bullpen serving either as a piggyback to Ober or another starter who isn't fully built-up or as a long-man who pitches twice a week seems like the best option if we're trying to win as many games as possible (the games in May count the same as the games in September). When a starter inevitably goes down with an injury, someone like Varland or SWR could come up for a spot start while Maeda builds back up for an extra week to fill the injured SP spot.

I’ve been thinking Coulombe is going to make the Opening Day roster. Whenever he’s been healthy, he’s put up good results. Having another LHP in the bullpen could be useful, especially considering Moran has reverse splits and might be used in a 2-inning per outing role and Thielbar is likely to be used in the late innings as one of our better relievers.

Willi Castro is far likelier to make the team than White. Castro has been having a stellar spring, he's young, and he could play all over the diamond with Miranda/Gallo/Farmer/Solano rotating in at 1B. To even have a shot at the opening day roster, it's likely that someone else other than AK would need to not be ready for the start of the season (someone like Gordon or Miranda).

I would ABSOLUTELY sign Duran to a long-term extension to buy out his arbitration years and his first 2-3 free agent years. We can say it’s a small sample size, but this isn’t some fluke — he throws 103 MPH with nasty breaking stuff. If anything, Duran should be even better this year than last year. He might be the best reliever in baseball. Injuries will always be a risk, but it’s not as if pitchers don’t consistently come back from TJ surgery in today’s MLB. Even if Duran needed TJ at some point, I’m guessing he would still come back as an elite reliever worth $12 million/year in 6 years, especially since team spending will only continue to increase.

No matter how the ball is flying, this year's Twins feel fairly well-prepared to handle it. If the ball is flying like 2019, Buxton, Gallo, and Correa are likely to hit 30+ homers and Miranda, Kepler, Polanco, and Kirilloff are likely to hit 20+ homers. If the ball is dead like it has been the last few years, our elite OF of Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, and Taylor will eat up fly balls.

I still strongly believe in Trevor Larnach as a potential #5 hitter for years to come. When he hasn't been trying to play hurt, he has looked like a hitter with substantial power to all fields who makes enough contact that he isn't the next Brent Rooker. Larnach's fielding is an underrated aspect of his game -- he's no Max Kepler in the outfield but he's a heck of a lot better than Delmon Young or Josh Willingham have been.

When I heard the Lux news, I wondered whether Farmer might be an option for the Dodgers, especially considering the Dodgers love versatile guys and Farmer would fill in nicely there. After the addition of Solano, Farmer seems a bit redundant considering Solano can play everywhere that Farmer can except for SS. However, that last part is probably key -- trading Farmer would leave the Twins without a true backup SS. It seems pretty clear the Twins don't want to use Gordon at SS, Polanco is nothing more than a "break glass in case of emergency" SS at this point, and Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee might not be ready for the Majors until mid-summer. A trade of Farmer seems possible if the Twins felt comfortable at all heading into the year with some combination of Gordon, Lee, Polanco, Solano as backup SS options; however, it seems unlikely we would want to diminish our overall depth considering the primary goal of offseason seems to have been to accumulate as much depth as possible.

I’m all for it. With Henriquez and Winder not 100% and Megill looking atrocious, maybe Hoffman can be the long guy we’re looking for or Santana can figure something out, especially considering he’s been really good in stretches and then looks like April/May-Pagan the rest of the time.

Though both are busts, the Cavaco and Sabato picks are polar opposites. We criticize the FO for drafting Cavaco as a toolsy prep infielder with massive upside if he ever put it all together, and we also criticize the FO for drafting Sabato as a high-floor, low-ceiling prospect who was likely to make it to the majors as a DH. Are we just blinded by hindsight? Maybe -- if Sabato was hitting like we all expected he would after we drafted him, the pick would make a lot of sense, especially considering how much this year's version of the team could use a righty power bat.

Really interesting work, thanks! 100% agree — fielders will have to field his grounders on the move (if at all), forcing them to make more difficult, rushed plays to throw Buck out at 1st.

Feels similar to the spot Smeltzer was in last year — a long way from the bigs. Smeltzer got a shot (and performed pretty admirably), but it took a glut of injuries for him to get a chance. With the added rotation depth this year, it would probably take 6 or more SP injuries for Dobnak to get a spot start this year.

Barring any injuries in Spring Training, the Opening Day roster is pretty locked-in. The only changes could come from a Bullpen move, whether that's signing someone like Matt Moore or keeping someone like Henriquez or Ober over Megill. The only possible position-player spot up for grabs is Trevor Larnach's, who could land in AAA to start the year if Julien or Martin look fantastic in Spring Training.