roger

Finally, someone acknowledges that the Twins don’t have a lot of corner outfielders who are both ready and a for sure option. Don’t be surprised if Max signs a short term extension for less than the QO, keeping him at Target Field beyond 2024.

The word she says I shouldn't use is the 'H' word. Do most people, other than us old guys, still have checkbooks?

No idea whether the Twins should do any deal for this guy. My concern is trading Kepler. Who do they play in right field? Larnach? Wallner? Will either be a solid player next year? Sure seems to me there are lots of questions regarding having to play both of those guys. You refer to Kepler being pushed out of a position in the future. If he goes, you may have three outfield spots to fill if Buxton is again unable to play center. Thats a lot of spots for a couple young studs to fill. And none of those guys, ERod, the kid taken #1 last year, or Rosario are that close or definite players. With everyone on the trade Kepler bandwagon, kind of reminds me of a couple years ago when everyone wanted the team to get rid of Eddie. The Twins did and haven't had a solid every day left fielder since. Meanwhile, Eddie has a ring and wasn't he the MVP of one of those series?

Your right, there are lots of areas to dispute what you claim. I don't have the CBA, Twins books, or the Atlanta quarterly filing. But there is one area you are making a huge assumption that may not be accurate. You are asking the Twins to have a payroll of roughly 18% less than Atlanta because the league has them rated at 79 versus Atlanta at 97. First, I don't have a clue what those rating exactly mean. But my point is that would mean that the other half of the Twins annual expenditures must also be 18% less than Atlanta. Considering the emphasis the new FO has been putting on developing their minor league and analytics, I have a feeling the other half of the expenses may be very similar to what Atlanta spends. Got a feeling they have the same number of scouts, etc. Based on what the Twins did for their employees during COVID, heck, they may be spending more on the non player payrolls than Atlanta. We do know they spent more to sign their draft picks as those pools are public. I don't have the numbers with me, but I believe they also spend more on the International pool. So if half of their expenses are non player payroll and they are similar to Atlanta, they need to spend 36% (18% *2) on player payroll to be equal. I know you won't accept this comment, but in this case the numbers don't lie. And I will acknowledge I don't have either team's internal books to confirm my point.

Can't believe we are only a few days past the World Series and here comes an article about the Pohlads being cheap. I got the feeling they weren't prepared to spend $156M last year, but did so when Correa became available. We will never know, but wouldn't surprise me if they lost money last year. It is likely they lost a lot of money back in 2020 and probably didn't do all that great in 2021. For that reason, I was shocked when they spent what they did in 2023. This team is in great shape today. They don't need to add anyone to be a very exciting team. Yes, there are a few spots where adding some depth would improve their chances of going deeper into the playoffs. What the Twins need most of next year is better health from a few key players. Will Buxton be able to play, say 100 games, in center field? Will AK be ready from opening day and not dealing with some injury most of the year? Will Miranda be healthy and the player he was in 2022? Will Royce Lewis be healthy and play in 130-140 games? Will Paddack pitch like he did the last week of the season and put up 140+ innings? If so, he is your #2 starter? I don't know what moves the Twins will make this winter, but they sure have an abundance of talent in the infield. Seems to me someone has to go. They should be able to get something back for that talent. A wise trade, or two, together with positive answers to MOST of my questions above will make the Twins a fantastic team to follow in 2024. I don't see the need for another article blasting management and ownership, but that's just my opinion. My bigger question is whether or not we will be able to see them play on my home television?

Got the biggest smile of the day out of this comment, thanks. Didn't like Cohen when he was in Washington, hated him when he opened his checkbook after buying the Mets (and yes, my 6-year old granddaughter says that I shouldn't use that word). Checked the standings several times a week to see how the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Padres were doing. Always felt good after seeing the results.

Interesting, Seth. Like jm above, will be following his progress at keeping all five pitches. Recall hearing a lot about Lewis early last summer. Didn’t realize he was a 2022 draft pick making his pro debut. What a fantastic start to his career. Hopefully we will see this young man at Target Field soon, perhaps by 2025?

Great analysis of the situation, Seth. Thanks. I don’t see both Gordon and Castro on the roster come opening day. My guess is Gordon goes. How, is anyone’s guess. Expect their veteran depth is gonna take a hit this winter. Makes sense to me to keep Farmer.

Interesting article, but…. Is Lee the third baseman of the future? No. Lewis is the third baseman of the present and future. Don’t know where Lee will play or even if he does. But unless Lewis is injured it ain’t gonna be third.

C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($4.00M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 21.05% under budget

Great article, John, enjoyed it. No way do I want to speculate what payroll will be, how they will get there and who will, or won't, be moved. Got a feeling the Twins also don't know what their payroll will be because until they have a firm number on revenue, they must remain flexible. As for replacing Gray, I am confident their #2 starter next year is going to be Paddack. That's assuming Gray doesn't accept the QO. Have always believe he could be special and that belief was enhanced last month. What they won't have is the depth of pitchers, and other players, they had last year. At least they won't have veteran depth. Maybe some of the young kids coming up will do as well as last year's class. What I do know is the next few months are going to be exciting and remain hopeful that come March I like the team that takes the field in Fort Myers. Also remain hopeful there is some way I can watch them play next summer.

I see the probability of bringing Pagan back as higher than 20%. Whereas the fanbase did not treat him kindly, the Twins FO and coaching staff seemed to have faith in him. Considering he has stated he liked Minny, I think his return may be closer to 50/50. And should he return, the bullpen is likely full. Also expect that the likelihood of Maeda returning is higher than you indicated. Although Gray may be their #1 choice, they may turn to Maeda once Sonny declines the QO. He doesn't need to fill the open #2 slot as I believe Paddack will take that in spring training. The Twins and Maeda seemed to be on good terms as he worked thru his recovery and he may just look favorably upon a return.

Not directly related to Cleveland, but on topic for moves that would help the Twins in '24, is today the day minor league players who are eligible to become free agents must be added to the 40-man to retain their rights? Was curious if the Twins would act to keep that catcher from St. Paul.

Interesting question related to this time of year, Nick. Will the Twins add the catcher from St. Paul to the 40-man before he becomes a free agent? When does he become a free agent, Monday night?

I keep reading these posts and wonder, why do people continue to mention Gordon as an option in a corner outfield position? The kid hit well for a few months two years ago. Last year it seemed he didn't take his bat with him to the plate. Then, like so many years in the minors, he got hurt and missed much of the season. Yes, he was fantastic cheering for his mates during the playoffs. And yes, numerous reports indicate he is a good guy. But he is marginal defensively at all three outfield positions and just acceptable in the infield. With Willie Castro returning next spring, there isn't a spot on this team for Gordon. Hopefully, he can provide some value to the Twins if included in a trade.

Understand that Mahle won't be a top two arm in 2024. But after watching the FO deal with Paddack last year and that big guy a few years ago, I won't be surprised if they sign Mahle to a two or three year deal paying him a couple million next year with a boost when he is healthy. As for next year, Maeda might fill one of their five spots. That would leave Varland in St. Paul as the next arm up to fill in for injuries and when any of the five need a couple week break to rest their arms. It is possible the #2 spot could be filled by one of the other starters on the staff. Maybe Paddack? Or Ryan? Or Maeda, should he pitch like he did a couple years ago. I also believe there is more for the Twins to get out of Ober. He is still learning and was awfully good this past year. Agree however, that they need one more starter. Just not certain it needs to be an overly expensive #2.

As I read this, jm, I was thinking the same. Let him start in Ft. Myers and then move up to Cedar Rapids by Memorial Day. But Cedar Rapids is the only stop before AAA where a player can learn to deal with the weather they will deal with each spring while with the Twins. For that reason, an argument could be made that he should start his season in Iowa so that he can learn to deal with the cold weather before getting to AAA or the Twins.

I expect there isn't any question on his role for '24. There is no way he is going to pitch over 100 innings, if that many. Likely he will be stretched out a bit in spring training, then begin at either AA or AAA pitching 3-4 innings every 5th day to get some innings behind him. After shaking off the rust, expect a move to the bullpen with him joining the Twins around late May or early June. Could be the final piece to a tremendous Twins bullpen.

Amazing at the numbers being thrown around. And we all should remember that Ohtani ain't gonna pitch in 2024. So signing him to mega millions won't solve the problem facing them next year. Now that the series is over, I expect that the Twins and Gray will have serious discussions about a reasonable deal. Assuming he declines, I expect the Twins will issue him a QO. Does that have to be done within the five day window following last night? How long does Gray have to respond? I remain hopeful that he takes the $20.5M for next year and the issue is resolved. And if Gray says no, don't be surprised if we see something done with either Maeda or Mahle. When could Mahle be expected to return, mid-summer?

What would I recommend, Seth? I would recommend that the FO read your report and act accordingly. Have a great day!

Interesting topic. Had Larnach, Miranda and AK coming up a couple years ago. Julien, Waller and Lewis this year. Now Lee, Severino and Martin are on the horizon for next year. The first trio had lots of early success, then injuries took over with only AK doing anything last year. And his year was derailed by his new problem, although its great news that the lingering wrist problem appears to be behind him. Before we get too far into dreaming about the three in this article, what is the future for this older trio? Each is capable of being big time, will they? Heck, will any one of them reach his portential? Then there is this past year's crop. If he limits his time on the IL to 10 or 20 games a year, sure looks like Lewis is a star. Perhaps MVP type of talent. Others will certainly disagree, but I want the Twins to ink this young man into third base in their lineup for the next ten plus years. Have more questions about both Julien and Wallner. One thing that may help Julien is if baseball does anything about eliminating umpire mistakes at calling balls strikes. This kid may have fine tuned his eye to the point that some/many of his strikeouts should ahve been walks. What do his numbers look like if, say, 10 of his K's are walks? Or 15? I see some negativity above about his D. Yes, it was a problem when he came up. But everything I read in the Strib, and elsewhere, indicates that he worked hard and it did improve over the summer. Personally, I have more questions about Wallner. Like Julien, I thought his defense improved after a few really ugly games earlier this year. But it wasn't great, although he does have a cannon for an arm. And his strikeouts were a problem. Can he fix that? If not, do the Twins really need another Gallo? As I look at the trio Cody is talking about, the first problem I see is that both Severino and Lee are infielders. Looking at the six who are already here, four of them play some mix of first, second and third base. Yes, Martin is probably being moved to center field, a position of potential need. But the others are faced with a lot of competition with Correa owning short. We will know what the Twins are thinking about Polonco in the next ten days when they need to either exercise his option or cut bait. Assuming they do exercise, there are a lot of guys fot next year's trio to pass for an opportunity to play in the Twins infield.

Since Prielipp was drafted, I will continue to believe that Prielipp and Canterino have the highest upside of any pitchers in the organization. Hearing Seth's interview of Canterino is encouraging. Hopefully, we will have similar news about Prielipp before spring training. May take a couple year's longer to get to the big club, but still believe in this duo.

Thanks, Seth. Still believe this kid can be a big part of Twins future pitching staffs. Is it likely, Seth, that because of his not pitching in soooo long that he will be stretched out to 2-3 innings this spring, then moving to the bullpen for the year? Is it realistic to expect him in Minneapolis by the All-Star break? Have always thought this kid could be a good one and wish him the best now that this is behind him.

All the news on AK's surgery is good. The labrum was ok and the surgery was limited to other problems. Sounds like he should be AOK come spring training.

While everyone is talking about where they can trade or spend more, the reality is that they will very likely spend less. You alluded to that, however, I didn't see the reason. Correct me if I missed something, but they do not have a contract for television next year, right? I seem to remember reading somewhere awhile ago that Bally wanted to do deals with several MLB teams, but it would be at least 20% less than this past year. Well, that would be a $10M++ hit for the Twins. Will that be the best deal they can get? Will Bally even be offering less? With all the uncertainty related to $54M of 2023 revenue, it is going to be a winter of uncertainty for the Twins. I don't see them writing any big checks, even for one year.