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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Those who can, do. Those who can't do, teach. Those who can't teach, umpire. I was a much worse slow-pitch player than you, I am confident, but it was still fun to compete, as long as it was against similarly untalented competition - or, necessarily, with such teammates for that matter. That one year when I played CF, because nobody else on the team would, hoo boy.... Ford should keep doing it as long as he wants, and people should cheer for him when he does.
  2. ashbury
    "We're bugging out!"
  3. ashbury
    Even though the score at the time wasn't outrageous, it seemed like "garbage time" for a pitcher, given what we expect from our offense the rest of the game. Caused me to wonder if there was a trend, of Pagan pitching his best when the pressure was off. So I went to b-r.com and took a look at his pitching log. I looked for instances of clean innings, or the multi-inning stints where he gave up fewer base runners than innings. Guess what? Contrary to my expectation, most of his best performances in 2022 have been in wins, and not simply blowout wins at that. Of course his bad performances correlate pretty directly to losses. Bad, gut wrenching losses. I'm not papering over that. But, fair's fair. He's had good days when it counts. I can sort of see why the manager and coaches may find him an enigma and keep trying to unlock something. He's no Tyler Duffey, who's lost his stuff. Pagan can pitch. He just... sometimes... often... too often... doesn't.
  4. ashbury
    "Baffling" might not pertain strictly to that one decision.
  5. ashbury
    The failure to pinch hit Correa in the sixth, down a run and with the bases loaded, is baffling.
  6. ashbury
    For me, the clincher is that they profess to be guided by analytics, yet the analytics appear to be poor. Exhibit A: calling up Tim Beckham, who has no discernible defensive skills remaining and whose gaudy batting stats at AAA were bolstered by an unearthly .500 batting average on balls in play. Even an armchair analytics guy like me spotted the potential for massive regression. What were they possibly seeing in his numbers? Exhibit B: trading for two pitchers who the general public had information to indicate injury risk. You're telling me there are no analytic models for pitcher injury forecasts? What tools were they using? Exhibit C : resting guys like crazy, yet the injuries mount anyway. Are the results matching up with what their forecasts were telling them? Are they looking at additional tools to figure out why not? Those are three that come to mind at the moment. But more generally, any FO makes a lot of moves over the course of a season, and too many of theirs don't work out. Bad luck? If that's the excuse, then I want a luckier FO to replace them. I'm not bothered by individual moves that don't work out, but it looks like systematic flaws in their process behind the moves. Analytics, expertly done, isn't nearly as rigid as they make it look. Indeed, in the business world, the term "brittle" is used to describe a system that is over optimized and under stress-tested. Look at airline cancellations for an example. I know lots of folks here aren't sold on analytics as a way to run a team. But I don't want analytics to be judged as a concept, by how these guys seem to be doing it.
  7. ashbury
    Who had that on their Bingo card? Buxton, knee surgery... Wait... am I hearing, "everybody"?
  8. ashbury
    I give full marks to Baldelli for 2019. It's always dangerous to try to guess what's in other people's minds, but I think there's a good argument that the prior edition of the team had been playing "tight" under the supervision of a hall of famer, and an innovation or two like a "nap room", fewer drills, plus letting Nelson Cruz exert a veteran presence, was just the tonic needed. But I also believe that average managers have a short shelf life, and their approach can't be static. Baldelli retains the "even keel" approach even when it could be that the players, a few of them anyway, need the proverbial kick in the pants rather than the pat on the back. If Baldelli doesn't have it in him to tell players that if performance doesn't pick up quickly, changes are coming, then maybe a tough-guy needs to be brought in. Who, in turn, will wear out his welcome in a season or three, but maybe that's how to get something out of 2023, and let 2024-5 take care of themselves. Or, preferably, find someone who knows how to play Good Cop / Bad Cop on the appropriate day of the week, and proves to be better than average.
  9. ashbury
    This is not a pattern of thinking that typically leads to success for the people with actual skin in the game.
  10. ashbury
    Timberwolves executives would just like to remind fans that pre-season is only a few weeks away now, and that they have the talent and coaching to break your hearts too.
  11. ashbury
    Jax used up his rookie eligibility last year. If we're talking about a pipeline, that was last year's delivery. I don't want to keep counting the same guys. Ryan not only was major league ready when he was acquired, but IMO the process of dealing away assets during a bad season should not count toward any concept of a pipeline. I want good seasons. I want the model of sustainable success that the new FO talked about in 2016. Simeon Woods Richardson will get the same critique if and when he makes it to the majors - all well and good to acquire him, and kudos for finishing developing him, but it came about because we weren't competitive at a trade deadline so it doesn't count as a validation of a pipeline. Off-season trades that are constructive are OK by me, as a way of replenishing the pipeline. Ronny Henriquez counts as the pipeline, for me. If we ever have off-season tanking, then no, such trades wouldn't.
  12. ashbury
    I already feel bad that my bit of humor could be misinterpreted as mocking the poster, so let me say: it doesn't take analytics at all, to demonstrate that this team has stunk for months now. The won-loss record alone is enough.
  13. ashbury
    I don't believe the talent level between AAA and most major leaguers is as vast as that. Today's game was against KC pitchers who each came into the game with an ERA above 5. (One left after having lowered it below that lofty threshold.) They aren't much more than AAA themselves. Don't you think a good game between AAA teams ought to result in more than 2 base hits? Some people need to be playing as though they would like a major league contract next season, if not from the Twins then someone after they are cut loose. I'm not seeing much of that based on results. The players, the coaching staff, everyone ought to feel ashamed.
  14. ashbury
    That's some fine analytics work there, Lou.
  15. ashbury
    Two freaking hits, versus a bunch of pitchers who came into the game with ERAs over 5. Don't tell me about injuries. Our AAA lineup should at least be able to compete against that. Arraez and Correa with base hits. Nobody else. You know what I call that? Lollygagging. So then what does that make our hitters today?
  16. ashbury
    Also a neat trick, if you want the actual actor who portrayed him.
  17. ashbury
    Why stop there? Always wondered if Ron Davis would have made a dandy anchor to any starting rotation. Why neither the Yankees nor Twins had the foresight to give that idea a whirl is beyond me. But the fact they didn't only strengthens the case. I've also always wondered what would have happened if Sir Barton and Babe Ruth had traded places. Could a horseracing AND baseball Triple Crown have been achieved? Pretty sure yes. How can a horse know unless he tries?
  18. ashbury
    I'm starting to lose faith in our chances of winning the Central.
  19. ashbury
    When I talk about FO analytics and their tolerance for risk. this is a central question to ponder, and I'm glad you've raised it. Signing Buxton long-term was nearly a marketing necessity, and nobody with P&L responsibility can ignore that. So IMO Buxton's a given. How do you deal with injury risk, with that as a given? Apparently our FO has chosen to construct a starting pitching staff with injury risk intentionally built in and accepted, in pursuit of maximum upside for the dollar. They traded for Gray, who hasn't been a workhorse in some time and a downward trajectory in IP looks in progress. They signed two free agents in Archer and Bundy who everyone expected would be on limited workloads, and yet both have had time on the IL and both are likely to pitch 145 innings or less. And the two big trades, well, that has been discussed to death, about the red flags that were knowable by even fans who look at IL logs before the trades were consummated. Outfield and pitching staff are very nearly separate decisions. And yet, I believe a different FO, or at least one with a different analytics team to advise them, could choose different approaches, given that "given" about Buxton. If OF will be iffy, maybe the strategy is a more solid starting staff, at whatever cost that may involve.
  20. ashbury
    Either it will rain tomorrow, or it won't. Everything's 50/50. I continue to believe that some teams have better analytics than 50/50, where it comes to projecting player durability, and that our Twins lag the field in it.
  21. ashbury
    LOL, my bad. Activated from, versus placed on.
  22. ashbury
    Who had 2 concussion IL additions on the same day, on their Twins 2022 bingo card?
  23. ashbury
    So apparently Rocco is using both too much analytics and too little.
  24. ashbury
    If benching Cave against a left handed starter is analytics, then they've been doing analytics in baseball for more than a century now.
  25. ashbury
    Yeah, that was kind of my point, although I don't see Kepler moving the needle even in a 5:1 trade.
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