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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    Except, traditionally the Twins have been Chicken Soup for the Pinstriped Soul.
  2. ashbury
    Wait. Is it legal to have a headline that ends in a question mark, be answered by the word yes?
  3. ashbury
    The 1962 Twins had 8 guys with 591 plate appearances or better.
  4. ashbury
    I'm not contradicting anything said by others in the meantime but I want to caution that information you find on websites, even official ones, may be summaries. Matters like the 60-day IL are covered in the negotiated Basic Agreement between players association and MLB, and when in doubt it's best to go to that document for a definitive answer. The most recent copy I found online is for 2021, at the MLBPA website: https://registration.mlbpa.org/pdf/MajorLeagueRules.pdf On page 12 there is the explanation of how players may be transferred from one injury list to another, where it states, "Time spent on the 7-day, 10-day or 15-day lists prior to any such transfer shall count towards the 10-day, 15-day or 60-day minimum inactivity periods, whichever is applicable. So, players who have been on the shorter injured list for a long enough time, will be able to come back this season, even if transferred to the 60-day list in September. Of course a 40-man move will be required to eventually activate them, assuming the roster is full as it is at the moment. Anyone who enjoys playing "Armchair GM" would probably find the entire document interesting to skim through - concepts you have always heard about, are spelled out, sometimes in legalistic fashion, but it's all there without need to speculate. Want to know how to move your franchise to another city where a franchise already exists? It's there. Wonder why it's called the "Rule-5 Draft"? Take a look at Rule #5 (and its many sub-bullets).
  5. ashbury
    0-3 according to the box score. I suppose your question was rhetorical, though? / and is mine? / and is this recursive?
  6. ashbury
    It was fun going to Arizona to see Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, and May in 2013. Garver, Rogers and others in 2015. 2021 was less fun though we did see Wallner. My sense from recent seasons is that our Twins have struggled to even find the requisite 6 to send, and some of those who did go were a little long in the tooth as "prospects" go. A lot of key prospects are banged up by the end of every season, or otherwise are apparently deemed not good candidates for the AFL, as it is. Sending 30 to some new variation just means 25 additional career minor leaguers play a little longer that year. Maybe some of the other 29 teams see it differently.
  7. ashbury
    Right. SDI is the component that itself is based on three different/competing analytic metrics (unless the mix has changed).
  8. ashbury
    Season stats can be even more misleading in AAA than the majors, due to constant personnel changes, but Omaha has had a good offense this year, so Jordy Blaze's four innings may be better than we know.
  9. ashbury
    Local baseball historian, and expert on no-hitters and near-no-hitters, Stew Thornley comments today that this is the "[f]irst time the Twins have broken up a no-hitter with two out in the ninth." If you really want to be exciting at your next cocktail party, take a look at this compilation (Stew being Stew he has updated it already) and memorize it. https://milkeespress.com/lostninth.html
  10. ashbury
    The league seems to have figured out Gordon and he should be removed from the bullpen.
  11. ashbury
  12. ashbury
    Sometimes I don't think you take this site seriously enough. Other times, though, I do.
  13. ashbury
    "I often quote myself; it adds spice to my conversation. " -- G. B. Shaw "A wise man once said, listen to wise men like me." -- me
  14. ashbury
  15. ashbury
    I think your conclusion is sound. A couple of caveats. You talked only of Run Expectancy values, but went on to note that a big inning isn't actually needed in that situation. RE is what's better known, but folks like Tom Tango also have developed a similar but more pertinent concept of Run Probability, which you alluded to. The old adage "play for the win on the road, play for the tie at home" applies, and the table seen in this link suggests that (if bunting is correctly executed 100% of the time) the chance of scoring at all goes up from .7655 to .7826. https://jackbanks.web.illinois.edu/2021/09/19/expedition-league-run-expectancy-matrix/ , without resorting to handwaving about multiple runs. A small edge but that's what players and managers should be looking for. On the other hand, such tables are generally built on overall experience, but "top of the order coming up, bottom of the ninth, one-run game" seems like a special case that could upend generalities. Splitting things by situation sometimes runs the risk of small sample size, but not in this case as I expect it's frequent enough over the years, and I bet such breakdowns exist, but I haven't the faintest idea where to look. It's rare times like this that I wish I had made the acquaintance of Tango. Okay, a third caveat, I don't know if those tables can be further broken down to cases where the next guy at the plate is a low-strikeout guy, but Arraez is such an outlier in today's game that I have to imagine his 7.5% K rate could nudge the close decision. Look at it the other way, a big strikeout guy seems like someone you'd prefer to have bunt (if he's good at it) to make sure his out is productive. But I'd want to see statistical evidence about that. Bottom line, the standard tables are only the starting point. Anyway. Yeah. Bunt. Probably. Maybe. Yeah.
  16. ashbury
    I can't not disagree with nothing in this post. Not! (Not.) / PS, writing on deadline is hard
  17. ashbury
    If we're going to rank signature pitches, for me it comes down to results and (secondarily) longevity. Close between Santana's change and Blyleven's uncle (Charlie). Duran's in the running someday if he keeps going for years and years like Mariano and his renowned cutter.
  18. ashbury
    It's a damning list, and yet I can't help thinking it's statistically misleading. 74% or even 95% isn't 100%, and we're seeing only one side of the coin - the cases where the game actually turned out to be a loss. How many 74% chances (in inning X) turned into 100% by game's end? Three out of four, by coincidence? Another way to ask is, did this person construct a chart for all the other teams, using the same methodology, so as to see how the Twins stack up by this way of looking. On the other hand, I manually spot checked another team, a good one (the Dodgers), for 20 or so of their losses, and didn't spot much of anything similar. The Twitter Guy is surely onto something. I'd just like to see something I thought was a little bit more sound, is all. Grumble grumble.
  19. ashbury
    Lopez didn't blow the save, since he didn't inherit a lead. The honor goes to Thielbar. Not that it matters. A run in a tight game is a run, and Lopez's decided the outcome. Justice is served by the L attached to his name in the box score.
  20. ashbury
    Deserves its own thread, dontcha think? I'll go ahead and steal your introduction and start one up.
  21. ashbury
    4. He's not the first guy named Billy Hamilton with a legendary rep for stealing bases. In theory it's great that they brought in a certified Hall of Famer for the stretch run. Still, it smacks of desperation to have chosen one like Sliding BIlly who died in 1940. / I bet this Billy Hamilton never gets tired of that joke
  22. ashbury
    Well played.
  23. ashbury
    The ball Gordon hit looked like a textbook triple once it hit the right field wall and evaded the defender. Shame on Nick for not going all out and cashing it in.
  24. ashbury
    5? For the season, we have used 8 left fielders in one way or another. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2022-fielding.shtml#all_players_standard_fielding_lf By contrast the Yankees have used only eight all year and the Dodgers a mere nine. We have it rough.
  25. ashbury
    What Can Billy Hamilton Provide the Twins? Outs. On defense, at the plate. Outs.
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