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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    He's already signed, and he holds the option whether to void it or go another year. The non-hyphenated (nonhyphenated?) version might be more correct, if a "not" were removed from the sentence.
  2. ashbury
    The process the Twins used indicated they would have liked to keep him around, but not at the continued expense of a 40-man spot. I expect the Rangers will conduct a similar charade in the near future. In any case nobody's just plain releasing him.
  3. ashbury
  4. ashbury
    There are only 27 outs per game, and we're nowhere near an era where starters achieve anything close to that. So an out or two, out of about 15 or 16 is looking meaningful to me, over the course of what's almost now a complete season.
  5. ashbury
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2022-starter-pitching.shtml This season they are fourth or fifth from the bottom in the majors, with 4.8 innings per start versus 5.2 league average. The Astros lead with 5.9. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2021-starter-pitching.shtml Last year by contrast there were just a shade below MLB average, well within what I'd guess to be "noise" rather than useful information. So, yes and no. The trend has been down all across the majors (with some kind of uptick this year), but the Twins have been accelerating that trend this season. Choosing to run with Archer and Bundy could have a lot to do with that - but it is a choice that the FO made and which Rocco then was tasked to implement with short duty for these two arms in particular.
  6. ashbury
    I don't know how anyone could phrase it better. Kudos. They are below .500, looking up at a team which is 13 games over .500. The fat lady has not only sung, she is in the dressing room enjoying refreshments and thinking about her next performance for a different audience.
  7. ashbury
    Can't point to very many Twins prospects who made a case that demanded a promotion yet weren't given their due. No budding Juan Sotos have been left to languish. Instead, we've drafted a lot of can't-miss bats who need a lot of work on their defense and even their initial hitting numbers in the minors look "okay, but not stellar" (or worse, *cough* Sabato *cough*). Or good gloves whose bat stays a work-in-progress for longer than we like. I don't think there are very many players whom you can just force-feed at the major league level. Instead, I look at Jorge Polanco, who has turned out to be a very productive major leaguer but who was forced by roster rules to be on the 40-man before he was ready and his brief introductions to the majors were, ahem, less than inspiring. All of which is to say, good for Brooks Lee, if he turns out to be that kind of player whom the Twins keep on the fast track all the way to the majors.
  8. ashbury
    You might have a short memory. Alex Colome served a similar role just last season. The situational stat Win Probability Added was even more negative for Colome than for Pagan in their respective Twins seasons. Trevor Hildenberger was even more terrible than that in 2018, but we don't remember it because expectations for him were low anyway. He repeatedly came up small when the situation was big that season. I won't bore you with the specific negative numbers these gentlemen all put up, but they are each completely dwarfed by TWO different seasons Ron Davis put up for our Twins, in 1984 and 1986. Chances are that those '84 Twins weren't quite ready for prime time, but they did finish only 3 games behind in the standings, and Davis by himself could well have accounted for more than that number of mind-numbingly spirit-sapping losses compared to just some rando minor league arm called up for duty in his place. Billy Gardner and Ray Miller sure stuck with their spreadsheets during those two seasons!
  9. ashbury
    Falvey took over in 2016 after the World Series. Levine was added in early November that year. The team they took over was a 103-loss team, doubtless resulting in a Get Well Plan for the new FO, and has been under their watch for these seasons: 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 As I said, we're approaching the end of the 2022 season. Not sure if you're taking issue with the math, or what. This FO has brought the team forward. Not sure they have demonstrated they have any special sauce, though; and Terry Ryan no longer being the right man for the job in 2016 doesn't confer the present group any special standing by now. There are always qualified candidates who could bring a different vision. I'm particular concerned about what I view as a reckless attitude toward injury risk that could run this franchise right into the ground.
  10. ashbury
    I didn't call his stylings on the mound the Emilio Pagan Experience, earlier this season, for nothing!
  11. ashbury
    Defensive stats are inherently cursed by small sample size, compared to the stats for batting and pitching. Fielding percentage holds no special advantage over other defensive statistics in terms of sample size. You know it's small sample with batting average, early in the season, when a good day raises someone's BA 50 points. Even one seeing-eye single can have an impact, when it's SSS. Well, with Gordon's fielding numbers, if even one attempt of his that got ruled a base hit had happened to be called an error, his fielding PCT would have dropped from above Polanco's to below him. That makes pretty thin gruel for any sustenance.
  12. ashbury
    Any list where Sandy Alcantara ranks #148 and Max Scherzer ranks #155 (fastball spin), while luminaries like Eli Morgan and Anthony Banda are #1/#2, is a list I will not pay much attention to. I loves me some baseball data, but I want data that correlates with something successful.
  13. ashbury
    When I try to find bright spots, they're hard to locate. I can't point a finger of blame at one phase, because nothing is really at a championship level in the other phases. Some bad luck is involved, but the words Total System Failure keep coming to mind, simply on the grounds that Total System Mediocrity isn't a thing. I can't pin it down to "moments" in the season The roster was constructed for an outcome like this
  14. ashbury
    Checking at FangRaph's roster page for the Twins, Dobnak has sufficient minor league options if all they wanted to do was keep him at AAA. Apparently 40-man roster slots were at a premium. His slot was more valuable than him. Quite the bargain long-term contract, indeed. No other team snapped up the opportunity.
  15. ashbury
    I bet there is at least an unwritten rule saying a team can't send two players at a premium position. There are four other teams sending players to Glendale and only so many innings for the catchers to share.
  16. ashbury
    Still some games to go, and a miracle finish is still possible. But if I'm upper management, I'm getting ready to demand a Get Well Plan from the baseball operations people, and also a good reason from them why I should let them be the ones to implement it instead of bringing in this other earnest couple of guys from some other front offices to construct their own Get Well Plan. We're approaching the end of Year 6 of the previous 5-year Get Well Plan.
  17. ashbury
    The average team scores 4 runs a game. Score more than that, your chances of winning are good. Score fewer, your chances are not. Baseball's a simple game like that, sometimes. Season on the line, and our Twins scored 3.
  18. ashbury
    Put up or shut up time, for Rocco and his charges. And vindication time for the FO, if things go their way.
  19. ashbury
    Oregon State University =/= University of Oregon Maybe there's an interesting anecdote about when the two teams played?
  20. ashbury
    'Ryan Flirts With' seems like the wrong headline. The team flirted with him, then got coy after letting him get to seventh base.
  21. ashbury
    Thank you for reminding me about the movie that ended my career.
  22. ashbury
    A 29-year old who has not tasted the majors yet. Minor league free agent signing in July. I can't find a TD article that mentions the signing, though.
  23. ashbury
    2021 was much more frustrating, as they were coming off consecutive division titles and went the opposite direction. I was expecting a continuation of the poor results this year, so the early quick start was a pleasant surprise and the reversion to form merely expected.
  24. ashbury
    I checked on b-r.com and, to date, nobody drafted ahead of him that year has done better.
  25. ashbury
    "Twins Lose No-Hitter in Ninth Inning" Regular readers here would be excused for thinking, based on a too-rapid reading of the headline, that the Twins lost the game 1-0 or similar on some kind of weird walk/error/wildpitch scenario.
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