Brandon

3 year 21-24 million max. I wouldn’t go any higher then that for him. He might only be worth a 3 year 18 million deal. I look at a good reliever like this. They throw around 1/3 the innings of a good starter and probably a little more compared to good Twins starters. I use 60 innings for relievers and 180 for starters. Anyways if a great starter can get 30 million then a great reliever is worth 10 million. It’s rudimentary and leaves out other factors but for back of napkin calculations this works for me. I would think a good starter who throws 180 innings is worth 20-25 million per season. You can use Bassit as an example. See what he gets per season in FA and divide by 3 to determine what Fullmer should get on a per season basis. How do you determine what Fullmer is worth? Or any reliever for that matter?

8-9 years in the 33-36 million per year should work. With front loading a little, opt outs and options for another year or two. That should be the framework for a contract. Can we get it done and structured in an acceptable way for both parties?

I prefer to look at it as signing both Carlos's that way it still looks realistic.

I think the Twins will have Moran and Stashak for the pen next year. while Stashak gets injured every year, he still will cost less than 1 million next season. I want the Twins to have lots of rotation and bullpen options for next season. It looks like they will. I would like to see them sign a bullpen arm whether it be Fulmer, Hand, Rogers, or Jansen or Kimbrel, or Roberstson, or...... I think Correa will sign for less than 40 million per season. I think an 8 or 9 year deal in the 33-36 million range gets the job done. (obviously with options, buyouts, and opt outs) Rodon will likely cost closer to the 25-30 million range over 4-5 seasons. expect to pay in the 120-150 million range for 4-5 seasons to get him. Mancini will probably cost in the 2 year 16-20 million range. (He is still a good get at the expense of Kepler. an exchange of defense for more offense) I would find a way to keep Urshala as he seems to be solid on both sides of the ball which is a Twins type of player. Kepler on the other hand has not produced enough offense to justify staying in the lineup. For C I am not opposed to trading. Oakland is rebuilding and I think they have a good C we could acquire for some good prospects. Sean Murphy for Wallner or Eduord Julien and Varland or SWR with a low A lotto player? I know Oakland will want major league ready prospects.

The Twins do get less revenue from cable and radio deals. that would help if they could get an extra 15-20 million extra per season from this. and if we could somehow get attendance up to the 2.5 million range, that would also add to the ability to spend. I wonder how much more revenue is in an extra 400,000 - 600,000 more fans at games. If the average fan spends 60 - 80 for the ticket and food and stuff thats an extra 24 million to 48 million in revenue. So lets pay more for cable and lets all go to more games. That could theoretically add an extra 25 to 40 million for payroll with more money still going to the Twins.

The size of the Twins market vs others is a little skewed by the fact that Minneapolis is the smallest market with every single sports franchise. Hockey, NBA, WNBA, Soccer, NFL and MLB. and independent baseball league if its still up and running. so the Twins are also competing with these franchises and college teams for sponsorship and corporate money. This hinders our revenues some too.

This is a good offer. If the Twins offer this and do not sign him, I would be fine with that.

This trade was a bust. If Donaldson hadn’t worn out his welcome here, he clearly would have easily hit 30 HRs with a .350 OBP. Isaeh would have been a contender for a GG at SS for us. How could you view that as anything but a failure for us?

No Sands, Balazovich and Strottman have not had a debut with the Twins at any time. Varland has 5 starts and Henriquez has several games pitched. THey were successful in their debuts. Ober, yes the injuries are a concern. my point was he was successful when he pitched. thus making it more likely he will continue to be a successful major league pitcher if he can succeed. The bottom line is as a whole we have more pitchers ready to go than the year before. Its ok if you disagree. also i dont expect all of the pitchers i listed to take the next step either. Hence the point of seeing how the next 2 seasons go.

While I agree with your statement, I wonder if he would have had better results in Minnesota. His overall pitching line for the season is similar from season to season in terms of hits, K's and walks. and HRs. He could have had better results for the right situation and that could be the Twins.

The names coming into this season were Ober as the closest to being established, Ryan with a solid debut, Winder, Balazovich were hopefully ready to take the next step. and Duran, Woods-Richardson, Petty, Sands, Dobnak, Strottman, Canterino, were still developing. That is a lot farther behind then where we are now. Last year: Ober was close to being established Ryan had a good debut to go into 2022 all other prospects are still developing. some are close, some are far away This year: Ryan, Jax, and Duran have broker out, Ober has had success in 2 successive season and is an effective big leaguer at this point. Winder, Varland, Woods-Richardson, and Henriguez had solid debuts. There are still a list of prospects in the pipeline. we even traded several of them this year. See how this year there are more pitchers? thats cause we are 1 year further in development with less injuries with the pitchers in the minors this year. It hurts that Balazovich took a step back. hopefully he can get back on track. This is why i am fine giving the front office more time. plus this was the funnest transaction season in my 35 years of following the Twins.

yeah the mets closer is gonna get around 100 million. so yeah Moran would be how you could do it.

You must have missed this part of my statement. "Going into 2023 we have Winder, Ober, Ryan, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Henriguez, Balazovich, and Testa and Dobnak is there somewhere, Duran, Moran, Jax. So they are getting pitching developed." Ryan, Jax and Duran have already broken out. Winder, Ober,Moran, have had some success and Woods Richardson, Varland, and Henriguez had successful debuts so it seems the pitching pipeline is on the brink of lots of success. hence the call for patience.

He did pitch better down the stretch. If he is willing to take instruction, I am ok with giving him a flyer contract. if not he should be let go. What he is doing isnt working. and not taking advice at this point is asking to be released.

I do agree we need a bullpen arm and I think Andrus has a 15 million player option he can exercise. I am not sure he will be a free agent this offseason will he? also I think you may want to do an extension or two with some of the savings you have. might as well front load a long term contract if we are under budget. overall a solid plan that is realistic.

lots of development happened. just not enough at the major league level. Duran and Jax developed into good relievers. Ryan into a good starter. Winder and Ober were taking steps forward but spent most of the season injured. Paddack too but not from the farm but from a trade. in the minors, Woods-Richardson, Varland, and maybe Henriquez developed to the point of making their debuts this season. and they looked good in them. Strottman and Balazovich went backwards. I think Enlow held steady maybe inched forward a little. Testa looks like a good prospect moving forward. So i don't know how you are judging the development. is it a finished product yet? no. but progress was made and the reasons stated by me above are why we are not yet a finished product so that is why i say give them 2 more years to see what happens. Clearly if there is a total system failure next year the following year shouldnt be guarenteed. but from what I see at this time, there are numbers of pitching prospects heading our way and we just need to be a little patient to see what happens.

I agree. He seemed to like it in Minnesota and he was average for a C with the bat and at defense. That is better than most of others available.

Larnarch is in the minors to start the season and Lewis is injured to start the season. I built the roster for opening day view. McCutchen can play all 3 OF positions so if we need defense when Buxton is out we have Celestino but if we need offense we can put McCutchen in CF. Also I wouldn’t want 2 injury risks in OF. Either Alex Killeroff or Larnarch not both at the same time to start the season.

Our system was obviously better than 21 with that many players succeeding

I give Falvey and Levine a pass on development. why? I’m glad you asked. Because the 2020 season was wiped out and 2021 saw our best prospects injured. Going into 2023 we have Winder, Ober, Ryan, Varland, Woods-Richardson, Henriguez, Balazovich, and Testa and Dobnak is there somewhere, Duran, Moran, Jax. So they are getting pitching developed. And now it’s finding out who takes the next steps and who stalls out. But there is enough here to see a lot of potential. Losing out on 1-2 seasons of development in the middle stages hurt them a lot. I say let’s give them 2 more seasons to see what we have. On judging their trades they were good at the time they were made. Overall I don’t think they did too bad if a job. I was happy with what they did last season.

It seems one of the extensions from the Braves this year followed the Twins model of extensions by front loading it. So I do think the Twins should front load several extensions to help level out future payrolls. Miranda, Arreaz, Ajax, Moran and Duran and possibly Ryan. They don’t all have to be so long to buy out FA years but long enough and low cost enough to be a likely benefit in future payrolls.

It makes sense. He had a down year and will cost less.

If there is room in the budget for another low-cost extension. I would certainly consider a 3-year extension for Jax. it would be small like a 3 year 6 million deal. 1,5, 2, 2.5 but it would buy out 2 arbitration seasons and secure Jax with some solid cash in the bank.

SS and RP are the big concerns of the offseason. SS will depend on how Lewis is progressing on his return from injury and how close they feel Brooks Lee is to the show. Jose Iglesias is probably the top candidate but if they feel one of these two guys could be up before the all-star break then why not take a shot on an even lower cost placeholder. Hence Villar. There are other low-cost options available too like Aledmys Diaz or Didi Gregorius so take your low-cost pic. McCutchen is probably stretched as a CF. But as a backup there and at other places with days off and DH days. I think he could be a real find for 400 PA and fill a role better than Garlick. and McCutchen won't cost much either. I don't see anyone willing to acquire Kepler, so I have us keeping him. He could be let go if he doesn't at least get back to league average bat if Larnarch or Killeroff prove healthy and capable in LF. The Twins have lots of starting pitching options for next season. I doubt the Twins spend there unless they sign a depth starter or 2 for AAA. (Woods-Richardson, Varland, Winder, Ober, and Henriguez is the new Smeltzer and possibly Blazovich if he improves plus the 3 locked in starters) back up C will actually be our starting C. we need to replace the offense that Correa leaves, so we sign Contreras to a 4 year 80 million contract. (This feels like a lot for the front office to want to do so I can also see us bringing back Sanchez on a 2 year 10-12 million deal as well). The bullpen is where the Twins will spend some money. with so many blown saves last season. I can see the Twins resigning Fullmer to a 3 year 7 million per season contract and bounce back candidate Trevor May to a 1 year 3.5 million deal. (I was thinking Taylor Rogers reunion, but he may still cost too much). We still have a little money left over. This is a great opportunity to frontload an extension to help keep payroll lower in future season. Let's get Arreaz extended. he has 3 more seasons left till he reaches free agency as something like a 5-year contract in the mold of 50 -55 million over 5 seasons and an option year. to spread the money around he probably gets a little less and the money is more even. so, 7, 9, 10, 12, 13 with an option year in the 18-20 million with a 2 million buyout. that is a 53 million guarantee. This also locks him up through age 31. and buys out 2 or 3 free agent seasons. I am not sure if the Twins have 5 or 6 seasons of control left for Miranda since he didn't play the entire season this year in the majors. I am going to assume 6 seasons of control for this extension. I will go with a 6 year 41 million contract at 4,4,6,7,10,10 and 2 options seasons at 15 million and the second at 18 million with a 2 million buyout. We have control of him through his age 32 season. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Luis Arraez ($7.00M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Jonathan Villar ($2.00M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($4.00M) 4th OF: Andrew McCutchen ($5.00M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Gilberto Celestino ($0.70M) Backup C: Contreras ($20.00M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Fullmer ($7.00M) RP: May ($3.5M) RP: Moran ($.75M) Payroll is 7.25% under budget

the 2010 Twins did not have an ace