Matt Braun

But that year barely counts, so let's call it 2019 to make it more impressive. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Pablo López: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K Home Runs: Alex Kirilloff (10) Top 3 WPA: Kyle Farmer (.165), Alex Kirilloff (.147), Louie Varland (.094) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) It was perhaps the most raucous night in Target Field history. With a playoff magic number down to 1, the Twins no longer had to TV-watch in the hopes that some other team could help their fortunes; they now commanded the situation, making a potential victory on Friday a clinching occasion. And, it was fitting that the man looking to lead Minnesota was the starter they acquired in an eternally controversial trade. Pablo López appeared dominant. He diced through the Angels early, either eliciting a strikeout or a groundout as LA’s hapless lineup fell over themselves with glee to get out. They were caught looking; they went down swinging. Even the one time they got on base was a 70 MPH lazy fly too lethargic to reach an outfielder. In every sense, they were overwhelmed. Minnesota’s offense, however, was energetic. From the beginning, there was a buzz surrounding their bats, fueling them; firing them up even after a quiet 1st. Silent no more, they took an inevitable lead when Michael A. Taylor shot a single into center field. So they added on in the 4th; Willi Castro blasted a triple out to left, and he would eventually be knocked in… with a walk. Unusual as it was, LA’s new bulk man—Davis Daniel—couldn’t find the strike zone if Vegas-style neon signs guided him to the plate. Balls begat walks; walks begat runs. Matt Wallner plated a run with a free pass before Alex Kirilloff knocked in a second one with a sacrifice fly. The three-run lead seemed a fortress. A baseball game can turn quickly, though, and an Angels offense that seemed impotent and stale suddenly turned. Jo Adell walked, setting up Jared Walsh to punish a López fastball thrown into the heart of the plate. If that were it, Minnesota would have still claimed the lead; but LA tacked on, riding López’s sudden lack of command for a trio of singles, turning the game tied when Nolan Schanuel’s opposite-field single fell safely into left. It was a sudden shock to the Twins’ system. The team appeared so in control of the game but found themselves tied with a squad only competent in half an inning. While Minnesota couldn’t answer in the 5th, they did in the 6th; Alex Kirilloff plastered a high-and-tight fastball deep enough into right to clear the overhang. The Twins had the lead again. It soon became a bullpen game. López fires off a scoreless 6th, giving way to the relief buzz saw that is Louie Varland in the 7th. He barely broke a sweat with a perfect inning. Instantly cooling was a breakthrough 8th—the kind of frame that decides the game and puts a manager at ease. Minnesota pummeled Jhonathan Diaz, sticking four runs on the lefty through a variety of methods. Most notably: yet another bases-loaded situation that turned into bonus runs. (This is quite the game to give a detailed playback if you didn’t notice). Somehow the runs didn’t discourage the Angels, though, as they struck back in the 8th with a two-run shot to slice the lead to three—making Jhoan Duran the likely candidate to end the game. If you thought that would be it, then you don't know Twins baseball. Duran indeed entered the game, but he soon labored. The strike zone was nebulous; his control sparse. He struck out the opening batter before entering into a prolonged Cold War, walking and allowing singles with un-Durian flair. Finally, after throwing God knows how many pitches, Duran coaxed the game-winning groundout, fielded by Edouard Julien, and transforming the Twins into the 2023 AL Central division champions. Notes: Alex Kirilloff’s homer gave the Twins 12 players with at least 10 homers on the year, a club record (the 2019 team had 11; Jake Cave was two away from being the 12th). Minnesota's 10 walks on Friday give them 557 on the year, good for the 12th most in franchise history. Pablo López's seven strikeouts pushed his season total to 228, tied with 1972 Bert Blyleven for the 9th-most in team history. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins and Angels will play the second game of their weekend series on Saturday; Sonny Gray will take the mound with first pitch coming at 12:10 PM. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

Minnesota's ace battles forces beyond just his competition in his bid for the AL Cy Young. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports If you pay attention to more than just the Twins side of the internet sphere, you’ve probably noticed the vast amount of cyber ink spilled over the NL Cy Young race and its many complexities. Six pitchers can claim a legitimate case for the award. No stat agrees with another. Senior circuit sportswriters may need to reach nirvana before they can understand who is truly worthy; lest they be punished by future dorks chastising them for their lack of vision. Less controversial and more ignored is the battle in the AL. It makes sense; the AL offerings are less numerous, less convoluted. The baseball sphere seems satisfied with handing Gerrit Cole the trophy and calling it a day, wiping their hands of strenuous thought as someone who surely deserves the honor ends up winning it. And, well, can anyone blame them? Cole leads the league in ERA—one of the stats so ingrained in baseball’s DNA that the sabermetric movement couldn’t even kill it—while tossing more frames than anyone else. He’s 3rd in WHIP, 1st in rWAR, and, hell, even top 10 in wins, if that still excites you these days. Nerds may punch small holes in his resumé, crying about his swinging strike rates and soliloquizing about his contact numbers before retreating into their cave-dwellings, but the numbers the majority of baseball appreciates are rock solid. It’s his award to lose. But, maybe that line of thinking isn’t fair. Cole leads in crucial stats, sure, but we have a cornucopia of numbers to describe what an effective pitcher looks like; surely, there is someone else deserving of being in the argument. ------------------------------------ Sonny Gray is having a terrific season. The veteran leads the AL in FIP, largely due to his insane 0.4 HR/9, good for best in MLB. He’s a stone’s throw from Cole in ERA and bests all AL pitchers in fWAR. Yeah, the home runs may be fluky, but only the immensely pedantic among us care about that kind of stuff; being the best pitcher is about run prevention, and nearly no one has been better than Gray. The issue for Gray, though is that he must battle more than just Cole—he must face off against the forces he commands; of a player on an East Coast icon; of a superstar handsomely paid for his skills; of someone who really should have already won one of these awards, giving the voters an easy reason to write down his name before anyone else. ****, Cole’s catcher gets an article written about him. These are powerful forces and narratives that give tremendous wind to each number Cole claims. Being close or better will not be enough for Gray; he needs to be undeniably the better pitcher if he wants to claim the award, a deficit Cole will not face. Ultimately, Cole deserves the win. He owns a sizable lead over Gray in innings—and now matter the precision you slice Gray’s ERA with—Cole is simply better. He’s allowed runs at a better rate. That fWAR lead will ultimately mean nothing, and short of Cole full-on immolating in his next start, the Cy Young will be his. If it isn’t close, though—if the writers choose to be too passionate about handing it to him with votes dated in early September—it would be a disservice to Gray and his accomplishments. Maybe he’d be the winner if the roles were reversed and if humans don’t have their funny biases. But we do, and that’s not changing anytime soon. For more Sonny Gray content from Twins Daily, click here. View full article

Looks like it's a best-of-three. Andrew Morris will pitch Tuesday and Cory Lewis will pitch Wednesday if necessary.

The former top prospect’s four-seamer wasn’t cutting it; how much can the new offering help? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports About a month ago, the Twins were losing handily to the Tigers when Josh Winder took the mound. Minnesota wasn’t expecting greatness; they just needed someone to eat outs in order for the game to continue to its dreadful conclusion. Sitting 2-0 against Matt Vierling, Winder uncorked his offering: Vierling looks perplexed. He is perplexed. He got the 2-0 heater he was expecting, but the pitch ran way more than he predicted, causing a foul off his foot, and an extended stare into space as he thinks “huh.” There’s a reason he acted that way; Winder is a four-seam guy, with movement dead and true. Yet, his offering here bored like it was looking for diamonds. What’s going on here? It’s a sinker; he threw a sinker. Winder has been underwhelming since joining the Twins, perhaps making it easy for some to write off his entire profile. You shouldn’t! Winder is a master spinner, firing junk that flummoxes hitters. His slider? Batters slugged .320 off it in 2022 and are slugging .256 this year; the change is similarly effective. The problem has been the four-seam fastball: hitters transform into prime Barry Bonds against it. That’s actually incorrect—they’ve been better than Bonds, slugging .713 against it last season and .905 in 2023. .905! That would be an incredible OPS. Why was his fastball so tasty? I don’t know the exact reason—I watch from behind a screen, not in the batter’s box—but we do have some other numbers that can explain his problems. You’ve probably heard a little about vertical approach angle. It was a big deal when Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober first came up, as their strange, oddly effective heaters blew hitters away despite unimpressive velocity. The gist is this: throwing from a lower slot makes high fastballs look extra-jumpy. They get that bonus ride that tricks hitters and hitters’ bats, and it’s usually whiff-city when a batter attempts to hit it when it's up in the zone. Winder… doesn’t enjoy this advantage. His angle is much higher than those two, keeping those high fastballs “on plane” before inevitably getting smacked into Wisconsin. A high approach angle by itself isn’t a death sentence—Félix Bautista basically drops pitches from the clouds, and he’s pretty good—but an average one, when combined with average fastball movement—which Winder has—turns his ERA sour and musty. I wish I could tell you that the sinker has magically turned Winder into a great pitcher, but that isn’t true; he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out since debuting the pitch on August 16th. His ERA sparkles at 1.69. His peripherals belch. The sinker alone has done well, though, in a miniscule sample. It's been especially helpful against righties, which is good; Winder has demonstrated reversed splits in his MLB career, with righties slugging .495 against him while lefties have only been good for a .367 mark. Frankly, it’s incredible that Winder introduced a foreign pitch on the fly. The offseason is usually when hurlers head to the drawing board and design a fresh offering; just ask Pablo López. But, when batters are slugging, *cough,* .905 against a pitch, that does tend to expedite change, especially for a player still battling for a secure role. I don’t know if the pitch will lead to the success that was promised for Winder, but it is encouraging that he’s proactively looking for solutions. Sometimes, quality performance is just one pitch away. View full article

The Saints were not as fortunate, though. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey (Photo is of Aaron Sabato) TRANSACTIONS None Saints Sentinel St. Paul 5, Iowa 7 Box Score Patrick Murphy: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K HR: None Multi-hit games: Austin Martin (2-for-4, R, RBI) The Saints were eliminated from playoff contention on Saturday. Despite an incredible 80-62 record—good enough for 1st place in the International League West division—St. Paul trails two other teams in the International League in total record. With one of those teams being the seven games up Durham Bulls—victorious today while the Saints lost—the seven games remaining make it impossible for St. Paul to pass the Bulls, who own the tiebreaker over the Saints. It’s a tough outcome for a team that has played so well. Starter Patrick Murphy had seen better days. He oversaw runs in the first three frames, giving the Cubs a six-run advantage with some aid from poor defense. It was a rare stumble for the former reliever, who had dominated in his new role up to this point. Despite the immediate deficit, the bats rumbled, gestating for five innings before unleashing a pair of runs in the 6th and a trio of scores in the 8th. The first two plated when Gilberto Celestino swiped home after Iowa’s catcher fired a bad throw to 2nd in an attempt to catch Austin Martin stealing; Trevor Larnach then singled in Martin. The 8th was another democratic effort, with Michael Helman doubling, Martin grounding out, and Larnach coaxing in a final run with a sacrifice fly. That was it, though, as St. Paul finally receded and Iowa plated an unnecessary seventh run to bring the game to its eventual end. Technically old friend Nick Burdi pitched 2/3 of an inning for the Cubs. Minnesota’s 2014 2nd-round pick tossed three frames for the big-league club in 2023, but has spent most of the season in the minors; it’s the first pro season he has pitched in since 2020. Chicago’s 13th-best prospect—1st baseman Matt Mervis—doubled in four at-bats. Wind Surge Wisdom Wichita 7, Midland 8 Box Score Sean Mooney: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K HR: Alex Isola (20), Aaron Sabato (12) Multi-hit games: Alex Isola (2-for-4, HR, 2 R, RBI), Jake Rucker (3-for-4, 2 R), Ben Ross (2-for-3, 2 R, RBI, BB), Willie Joe Garry Jr. (2-for-4, 2B, RBI) Wichita blew a 7-4 lead in the 9th, losing in horrifying fashion in the penultimate game of their regular season. Sean Mooney was the starter, but Jaylen Nowlin entered after an inning as the bulk pitcher. He was inefficient. Midland pounced on the lefty for four earned runs, not punishing his walks, and instead choosing to blast two homers off him, giving them a slim advantage. It didn’t last. Wichita kept pace early with piranha-esque singles and stolen bases before transitioning to modern Twins ball, smacking extra-base hits around the field to eventually give the Wind Surge a hearty 7-4 lead heading into the 9th. But then, tragedy. Miguel Rodriguez earned the inning’s first out, completely unaware of the fortune change soon to occur. Two singles, a walk, and a fielding error knocked him out of the game, scoring a run in the process. With Francis Peguero tabbed as the man set to establish order, the RockHounds simply continued their terror; Max Muncy—no, not that one—smoked a bases-clearing double, handing Midland a lead unthinkable just two outs earlier. The Wind Surge never recovered. Wichita is technically still alive in their playoff race, needing a win on Sunday with a Cardinals’ loss to punch their ticket. Catcher Daniel Susac served as Midland’s best prospect; he homered and struck out twice. Kernels Nuggets The Kernels did not play on Saturday. They won their previous playoff series, sending them to the Midwest League championship against the Great Lakes Loons with game 1 starting on Sunday. Mussel Matters The Mighty Mussels’ 2023 regular season is over; they will not play again this year. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Isaac Mattson Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Alex Isola PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #5 - Matt Wallner (Minnesota) - 1-3, BB, K #8 - Austin Martin (St. Paul) - 2-4, R, RBI #10 - Tanner Schobel (Wichita) - 0-1 #17 - Yunior Severino (St. Paul) - 0-3, BB, K #18 - Jose Salas (Cedar Rapids) - 0-4, K SUNDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Iowa (1:08 PM) - RHP David Festa Midland @ Wichita (1:05 PM) - TBD Cedar Rapids @ Great Lakes (12:05 PM) - LHP Christian MacLeod View full article

I’ll be honest: I wrote this entire thing thinking today was Saturday. I thought I had everything switched back to normal, but alas.

This was not the same game as Thursday, I swear. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Bailey Ober: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K Home Runs: Royce Lewis (14) Top 3 WPA: Royce Lewis (.340), Matt Wallner (.139), Bailey Ober (.100) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Across MLB on Friday, players and teams honored the great Roberto Clemente with special “21” patches on the jersey; some donned the number in favor of their typical digits. Two Minnesota Puerto Rican natives—Carlos Correa and Willi Castro —were amongst them. You may vaguely know of Clemente’s charity, especially as his unfortunate death came on New Year’s Eve during a plane ride to Nicaragua to deliver supplies to the country following a devastating earthquake. That story alone does not cover Clemente’s special altruism. He diverted funds from the opening of Three Rivers Stadium to Pittsburgh’s Children’s Hospital, he befriend the reverend Martin Luther King Jr., using his unique place as an early black, Latino baseball star to speak out against American discrimination in his time, and he did much, much more than this puny post-game report could never fully cover. He was a great man taken from humanity far too early. -------------------------------------- Bailey Ober started for the Twins. The elongated righty was sent to St. Paul to marinate as his new career-high in innings appeared to wear down his performance; his ERA since the beginning of July was 4.58. Back in the majors, Ober looked to silence a lineup killed many days ago. The 1st inning was a typical baseball sparring, with each team simply looking to get their feet wet, but action began in the 2nd. A pair of singles and a walk set up Royce Lewis with the bases-loaded and two men out. White Sox starter Jesse Scholtens—surely aware of Lewis’ prowess with men on every base—pitched him daintily, missing in relative degrees of closeness to signal that it was far from his intention to become a statistic. It didn’t work. Needing to attack 3-1, Scholtens fired a heater directly down the heart of the plate. The ensuing jog around the bases was a mere formality. (Get ready for some stat drops.) The grand slam gave Lewis the Twins single-season record for salamis (he’s played 54 games); he’s also two more bases-loaded homers away from tying the MLB record shared by Travis Hafner and Don Mattingly. His four grand slams in 18 games is the shortest span for any player in MLB history. September aloofness set in a while ago for Chicago—but it reached inexcusable levels on Friday. In one inning, Tim Anderson booted a routine grounder, Elvis Andrus never looked to turn a possible double play despite Correa being the runner heading to second, and Anderson lackadaisically allowed a pop-up to drop, scoring a run in the process. Impressive effort from a man with a batting average, on-base-percentage, and slugging under .300. Max Kepler added another run with a single into center the following frame. Ober was cruising. He didn’t need the run support—the White Sox could only claim a scattering of singles against him—but his efficiency quickly turned. A soft single begat a two-run shot, and while that was the only damage he allowed, Ober’s now somewhat inflated pitch count made the 5th his final inning of work. That was essentially the game. Between the 5th and the 8th was the kind of mushy, sometimes-threaten-but-never-score baseball that often describes even the finest games. The action didn't end, though, as Minnesota's dormant bats woke up when the White Sox sent Michael Kopech to the mound; he labored through a frame with four earned runs, giving the Twins the same amount of runs they plated on Thursday. Kody Funderburk pitched a scoreless 9th to wrap up the win, lowering Minnesota's magic number to seven. Notes: Louie Varland has a 2.16 ERA since joining the bullpen in September; he's struck out 11 and walked just one. Royce Lewis walked three times to set a single-game high in his MLB career. Bailey Ober lowered his BB/9 to 1.83, the 9th-lowest total amongst MLB starters with at least 120 innings in 2023. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins and White Sox will play the third game of their series on Saturday. Pablo López is set to start opposite Touki Toussaint with first pitch coming at 6:10 PM. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

I will never complain about kicking the crap out of the White Sox

I don’t care about the platoon advantage; I’d much rather see Edouard Julien figure it out against a tough lefty when the alternative is Christian Vázquez.

To me, it's a sign of a good team when they can win while being lead by Willi Castro and Louie Varland

A good thing, too, because it was not a great day on the farm. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge TRANSACTIONS RHP Jorge Alcala assigned to Low-A Fort Myers on MLB Rehab. Saints Sentinel St. Paul 3, Louisville 4 Box Score Bailey Ober: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K HR: None Multi-hit games: Jair Camargo (2-for-4, RBI, K) The Saints blew up late, falling to the Bats after an excellent start by Bailey Ober. Ober was magnificent; the tall righty allowed just three measly singles, slicing through the Bats with his typical efficient style (he only needed 65 pitches). He also struck out three. You couldn’t draw up a more “Bailey Ober” start if you tried. St. Paul’s offense was occasionally patient, taking six walks on the day, but their issue was glaring, standing out like a neon light cutting through the night sky: 17 strikeouts. Three separate hitters whiffed at least three times, with Anthony Prato catching the worst of it; he punched out four times. They did score, though—three times in fact—as DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and Austin Martin both knocked in a run with 1st inning singles. Jair Camargo added another with an infield hit in the 3rd inning. Old friend Alan Busenitz (he’s back!) saved the game for Louisville, striking out one in a perfect inning. Both Jonathan India and Joey Votto played for the Bats; the rehabbing big-leaguers may be seen wearing Reds uniforms when the Twins soon come to town, but for now, the duo is based in Louisville. Votto singled. Reliever Levi Stoudt is Cincinnati's only top-30 prospect at AAA; he pitched a scoreless frame. Wind Surge Wisdom Wichita 3, Corpus Christi 7 Box Score Travis Adams: 5 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 6 K HR: None Multi-hit games: Tanner Schobel (2-for-4, RBI, K), Alex Isola (2-for-4, RBI) A dreadful 2nd inning cursed the Wind Surge to lose on Saturday. Travis Adams did recover to eventually finish the 5th inning, but the 2nd inning dragged him down, limiting the greatness of his pitching line. It’s a shame; the rest of his start was pretty good, with each other frame only once seeing a runner reach second base. The bats were productive, with all but two batters earning a hit. Few were damaging. Just two of the knocks went for extra-bases. Coordination proved to be the problem; Wichita never scored in an inning more than once, leaving their rallies short and unthreatening. Carlos Correa’s little brother, J.C. Correa, singled in three at-bats. Houston’s best prospect, however, is centerfielder Jacob Melton, and he walked and struck out twice. Kernels Nuggets Cedar Rapids 2, Wisconsin 3 Box Score John Klein: 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K HR: None Multi-hit games: Misael Urbina (3-for-4, R, K) The Kernels lost a squeaker on Saturday. John Klein—the pride of Brooklyn Park—made his Kernels debut. The Iowa Central Community College product was excellent, whiffing four while only allowing two runs, giving up six hits in the process. He’s had quite the season, moving from the FCL to A+ ball, and he could see himself start to appear on prospect lists in the offseason. Cedar Rapids’ offense couldn’t support him, unfortunately, as a two-run Kala’i Rosario single represented the lone run-scoring hit of the night. The two RBIs pushed his season total to 94; he easily leads the Midwest League in RBIs; Jimmy Crooks is second with 73. The Kernels struck out 14 times, taking seven walks, while accruing six hits—all singles. Misael Urbina collected three singles and stole his sixth base of the season. Milwaukee’s 1st-round pick in 2023—Brock Wilken—struck out once in four at-bats. Mussel Matters Ft. Myers 4, Bradenton 5 Box Score Jose Olivares: 4 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 7 K HR: None Multi-hit games: None Despite a four-run 2nd inning, the Mighty Mussels fell to the Marauders on Saturday. Not even a rain delay could stop them; Fort Myers weathered a break in the middle of their rally, returning to plate four runs off a variety of Piranha-esque outcomes—singles, walks, and sacrifice flies. That was it, though, as the Mighty Mussels only had four total bases on the game. They did reach base often, taking an astounding 13 walks, but finding the critical knock proved elusive, and they scored no runs after their early outburst. They should have. The Marauders struck back with a four-run frame of their own, knotting the game in the middle innings. Though they sat dormant for a while as well, a 9th inning sacrifice fly broke the tie. Danny De Andrade’s lead-off double went nowhere. Alec Sayre’s groundout to the pitcher ended the game. Rehabbing big-leaguer, Jorge Alcala, struck out two in a perfect inning. He maxed out at 98.4 MPH. Second baseman Mitch Jebb is Pittsburgh’s 9th-ranked prospect, and he walked while driving in a pair off two sacrifice flies. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Bailey Ober Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Misael Urbina PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #1 - Brooks Lee (St. Paul) - 0-3, 2 R, 2 BB, K #2 - Walker Jenkins (Ft. Myers) - 1-5, RBI, 2 K #3 - Emmanuel Rodriguez (Cedar Rapids) - 0-4, BB, 4 K #5 - Matt Wallner (Minnesota) - 0-3, 2 K #8 - Austin Martin (St. Paul) - 1-3, RBI, K #10 - Tanner Schobel (Wichita) - 2-4, RBI, K #12 - Luke Keaschall (Cedar Rapids) - 0-4, R, BB #16 - Kala’i Rosario (Cedar Rapids) - 1-4, 2 RBI, BB, 2 K #18 - Jose Salas (Cedar Rapids) - 0-4, K SUNDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Louisville (12:05 PM) - RHP Blayne Enlow Wichita @ Corpus Christi (1:05 PM) - LHP Jaylen Nowlin Cedar Rapids @ Wisconsin (12:10 PM) - LHP Christian MacLeod Bradenton @ Fort Myers (11:00 AM) - RHP Ben Ethridge View full article

Now if only we could get some help from the corpse they call the Angels

Can we find some comps for the 18-year-old with no regard for pitcher’s egos? Image courtesy of Michael Cuneo/STARNEWS / USA TODAY NETWORK Most 18-year-olds are pretty useless. I mean, @Matt Braun, at 18, was entering his Freshman year of college, and he didn't end up doing much that year outside of playing Mario Kart with his buddies on the weekend. Stone sober, of course. Classes? Don't need them; I was feeling tired anyway. That's your average 18-year-old: draining society with their laziness. Walker Jenkins is not average. After taking the Twins down to the wire in contract negotiations, he suited up for the FCL team and hit .333/.390/.537, leading to Minnesota's decision-makers declaring that they've seen enough. Jenkins was sent to Fort Myers when short-season ball ended, and he has since slashed an even better .447/.488/.684, with one strikeout. One. Hey, at least I was a menace on Rainbow Road. His performance so far has been impressive—probably even beyond what the wildest optimist could conceive—so let's look at the numbers and see if we can find some historical comparisons for the terror out of North Carolina. 40 plate appearances is a putrid sample size, but going back to 2006 (the extent of Fangraphs' minor league data), no one tops Jenkins' 1.112 OPS as an 18-year-old at A-ball. Some of his close contemporaries are Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto... Domingo Santana... and Giancarlo Stanton. Some players around him never became stars—that happens when you look at small samples in the lower minors—but there are also some undeniable superheroes, easy Hall of Famers, who shaped the game's landscape. But stretching 40-plate appearances that thin, especially when some of these guys are sitting at 500+, is a dangerous game. Expanding the sample to all 18-year-olds with at least 100 plate appearances in a minor league season (conveniently, the number Jenkins has split between Rookie and A-Ball) gives us some interesting results. The greatest 18-and-under batter in recent MiLB history was Malcom Nuñez, who hit for a Bondsian 238 wRC+ in Rookie Ball in 2018. He's now a fringe prospect with the Pirates. So it goes. You'll still find guys like Joey Gallo and Nolan Gorman populating the leaderboard, but most young batters bashing in the low minors hit a wall somewhere in their future development, finding the older competition more challenging to dominate as all the boys mixed in with the men get filtered out eventually. Still, Jenkins is 44th on the list by OPS, tied with Austin Riley as one of the best youngsters to eviscerate his peers thoroughly. Most impressively, though, is that strikeout rate: most 18-year-olds only have a sporadic relationship with contact, finding the ball reclusive and tricky. Not Jenkins. Only one non-DSL hitter—William Bergolla of the Phillies—has a lower K-rate than him amongst 18-year-olds with at least 100 minor league plate appearances. Most are slugging at or around .400; Jenkins is at .579. Honestly, I don't think his numbers can tell us much of anything at this point; you can strangle stats until they tell you what you want to see, but the reality is, plenty of 18-year-olds have appeared to be an unstoppable comet, streaking through the sky, seemingly unable to be stopped until some force (pitchers that aren't literal teenagers) kills their momentum. It happens. It can happen here. So, be excited about Jenkins' tremendous start—lord knows I am—but practicing at least a little discipline may also be wise. Minor league stats can be informal, but they also often lie, leading to unrealistic expectations and dramatic levels of hype that can swallow you whole without you even realizing it. Jermaine Palacios once looked like an unstoppable force, after all. View full article

"Absurd" doesn't cover it, but describing the play in question would be work for even the nation's finest poets. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Dallas Keuchel: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K Home Runs: Carlos Correa (18) Top 3 WPA: Carlos Correa (.121), Andrew Stevenson (.120), Caleb Thielbar (.086) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) It had been a while: the Twins and Mets played each other for the first time since 2019, when Minnesota shockingly decimated Jacob deGrom in the middle of his historic terror, and Luis Arraez shook his head into our hearts with his legendary pinch-hit walk off of Edwin Díaz. Those may have been in two separate series, but such memorable events coming from these two teams facing off spoke to something happening tonight. Folks... just wait. Kodai Senga started for New York. The 30-year-old Japanese sensation entered the game with an excellent 2023 already behind him, as his special “ghost-fork” has helped strike out the world. He’s had his issues, though: command occasionally eludes him, as the fork ball refuses to ever truly be mastered, and the Twins were well-prepared to wait him out early. Jorge Polanco walked in the 1st, giving Minnesota their first base runner of the night. They quickly had their second base runner of the night; Royce Lewis scalded a double into the left-field corner, allowing Polanco to gallop home. Dallas Keuchel appreciated the help. The veteran lefty was matched up against a lineup likely far younger than the Mets expected to have at this time of the year—and he diced them up with ease. He worked the edges early, opening up his arsenal of looping off-speed pitches. Usually behind in the count, New York’s rookies flailed helplessly, jutting all sorts of ligaments out over the plate as they swung in vain to make contact. He struck out six. But, things weren’t always smooth sailing—the Mets still employed some talented veterans, after all—and Keuchel ran into trouble in the 4th inning. A walk and a pounded double by Pete Alonso placed two runners in scoring position. Francisco Lindor then caught a cutter far to center-cut not to hit, and plated both runners with a double. Keuchel escaped the trouble with yet another signature double play. And the lead lasted four pitches. Carlos Correa—who was once almost a Met, if your memory can extend back that far—pulverized a Senga offering into the second deck. The ball looked to be rising as it reached the seats. Things settled; Senga found control not previously seen on Saturday, and the Twins began their adventure through their bullpen. Runners sometimes reached, but all rallies died a tepid death. That is, until the bottom of the 7th inning, when perhaps the most ridiculous play since Miguel Sanó lined a ball into right against the Tigers in 2022. With Andrew Stevenson on 2nd and Willi Castro on 1st, the Twins called for a double steal, sending both runners bolting for the next base. Sean Reid-Foley’s offering hit the dirt, shooting by Francisco Álvarez to give the runners their desired base. Stevenson was greedy. He took a few extra steps before letting the universe know through body language that he (messed) up. He scrambled back to third base. Álvarez’s throw scooted into left, sending Stevenson home; Tim Locastro’s throw scooted beyond anyone’s grasp, making Stevenson safe. And, the Twins tacked on two more runs. (The second scored on a Max Kepler dying quail that Bally Sports evidently deemed not cool enough to tweet). That was about it. Jhoan Duran shook off drama after firing a 103 MPH to nowhere in particular, re-finding the strike zone, and ending the game with a pair of strikeouts and a fielder's choice. Notes: Dallas Keuchel's six strikeouts were the most for him in one outing since joining the Twins. Carlos Correa is two homers away from having his 7th 20+ home run season in MLB. Willi Castro's 31st stolen base ties him with 1976 Larry Hisle and 2001 Luis Rivas for the 14th-highest single season total in Twins history. Royce Lewis' pair of doubles gave him his first multi extra-base-hit game since August 24th. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins and Mets will play the second game of their series on Saturday. First pitch will exit Kenta Maeda’s right hand at 1:10 PM. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

Might the Polar Bear soon call home to a land more suited to his arctic preferences? Image courtesy of Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs recently penned a piece in which he pondered a reality in which the Mets dealt their slugging 1st baseman. New York has been a mess in 2023. They already partook in a mass exodus of notable talent—with the future Hall-of-Famers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander as the most prominent names. Even Mark Canha got the boot. Pete Alonso, however, stayed put. The team offered his name around—Steve Cohen had already bought some great prospects, why not get some more—but no deal materialized, and Alonso was forced to stay put, perhaps leading the "Get to Know Each Other" introductions the clubhouse soon held (this did not happen). With the Mets planning on not competing until 2025, finding a new team for a player soon to be a free agent appears inevitable. Let's see how the Twins could fit into this. Alonso is already a Twin in many ways; the righty appears to fit the slugging/OBP/who cares about batting average/why are we striking out so much mold the team has targeted in recent years. That isn't entirely fair. Alonso whiffs at a rate around league average and takes enough walks to buoy his on-base ability to be above your standard MLB first baseman. But who cares about all that? You're trading for Alonso because he hits dingers—a lot. Since debuting in 2019, he's first in all of MLB in long balls—19 above second-place Matt Olson. Part of that is his prodigious power. Alonso has also been remarkably healthy, only hitting the IL twice since breaking into the majors; his 656 games played since 2019 trail just three position players. Alonso plays first base and DHs—he has no positional flexibility. That could cause significant problems for the Twins if they need to run back the Byron Buxton Never Sees the Field show, but otherwise, the fit can work. They'll need to shuffle hitters, ensuring that Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis, Jorge Polanco, Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Alonso can't all be in the lineup, but, come on, when have the Twins ever been that healthy? If that's too much, the obvious answer is to deal Polanco, who should be attractive with a vested 2024 option and a cheap 2025 club option. As you may remember from a few paragraphs before, Alonso is a free agent after 2024. Signing recently-acquired players to an extension isn't impossible—just as the Cardinals with Paul Goldschmidt, the Dodgers with Mookie Betts, and the Braves with *gestures broadly*—but it would place pressure on the team to ensure they aren't hemorrhaging prospects for rentals. The future payroll isn't too dirty, as Carlos Correa and Pablo López are the only players set to earn more than $20 million. What would such a trade look like? Baseball Trade Values isn't perfect, but it's helpful to at least get close to finding somewhat even deals; no packaging Nick Gordon and Brent Rooker for stars. I've prepared three deals: The first is a package of two near-big-leaguers and Trevor Larnach. Trade deadline rumors pegged the Mets intrigued by Larnach, so let's give them what they want. Tanner Schobel and Marco Raya give them two quality prospects already at AA—in line with New York's plan to ammo up for a run after next season. I think the site has Raya and Schobel underrated, given that Raya is a 45+/50 FV guy, and Schobel is probably one step behind him, so only one of them may be needed in this deal. The second is a combo of buy-low guys. New York can give Josh Winder a shot in the rotation, something the Twins probably can't/won't do given their need to be competitive; they can't suffer his inevitable lumps if they want to win next year. Jose Miranda muddies the Mets' infielders-in-name-only situation, but as long as his bat rebounds, New York would not mind too much. The third is a precarious long-shot deal. Who knows, though? Steve Cohen may be a fan of lotto tickets. Yasser Mercedes gives them a chance at finding a future dynamic outfield star, while Connor Prielipp could recover on the East Coast, offering a cheap chance at ace upside. This deal could quickly turn into a "we dealt Alonso for two burnouts" trade, but if Cohen wants to roll the dice, this deal offers tremendous upside. It's unlikely that the Twins would acquire Alonso, but it was also twice as unlikely that Correa would sign with them. Minnesota has flipped the popular narrative several times over the last few years. If they want a big bat—and if the Mets are willing to play—bringing Alonso to the Midwest could be the play. View full article

Hate to see any loss but I think we’d all take winning 4 of 6 in Texas and Cleveland

After taking a look at the best starters of the month, read about what their reliever counterparts did to stand out from the crowd. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Relief pitching in the minors is weird. Not only are pitchers often shuffled between the rotation and bullpen, leaving the designation of titles obsolete and confusing, but their broad lack of command can lead to bizarre peripherals and misleading ERAs. It is far from uncommon to see a relief outing with three or more walks. Knowing this, let us cut through the fray, hopefully striking at a few names that rose from the control muck and grime, making themselves undeniable in their excellence. Honorable mentions: RHP Regi Grace - AA Wichita, 17 2/3 IP, 19.7 K%, 2.04 ERA, 3.33 FIP Regi Grace’s ERA masks an ordinary strikeout rate; he also allowed multiple baserunners in every outing in August except one. The volume is excellent, though. RHP Devin Kirby - FCL Twins, 11 2/3 IP, 35.4 K%, 3.09 ERA, 4.81 FIP An undrafted signee out of the University of Connecticut, Devin Kirby struck out a whole bunch of batters but also walked a ton of them. RHP Kyle Bischoff - FCL Twins, 11 1/3 IP, 28.6 K%, 1.59 ERA, 4.48 FIP Copy the previous text but change the college to “Michigan State,” and you have Kyle Bischoff’s August with the FCL Twins. LHP Jordan Carr - A+ Cedar Rapids/AA Wichita, 16 2/3 IP, 26.1 K%, 1.08 ERA, 3.77 FIP 2023 has been a dream for Jordan Carr. The lefty toasted Midwestern hitters all season, holding a tiny 1.48 ERA over 60 2/3 frames for the Kernels. The performance earned a recent promotion to AA—he’s made just one appearance there, as of August 31st—as the 25-year-old will now feel the joys of pitching in one of the most offensive-friendly environments in baseball. If Carr’s placement feels low, consider that he also hit four batters this month, artificially keeping his walk rate lower than it would have been if he just handed them four free ones. 5. LHP Aaron Rozek - AA Wichita, 16 1/3 IP, 30.4 K%, 3.31 ERA, 3.05 FIP Aaron Rozek may be the first player to make both the Starting Pitcher of the Month list and its relief counterpart. That’s… maybe not great, but at least it seems that he’s found a home in the bullpen. August was a great month for the Burnsville native; Rozek allowed one or fewer runs in six of his seven outings (the one clunker was a start, funny enough), as he punched out over 30% of batters and kept the walks at an acceptable level. It’s been a true rollercoaster season for him, oscillating between domination and frustration, but his recent results may reveal a newer, better version of Rozek perfectly suited for the bullpen. 4. LHP Kody Funderburk - AAA St. Paul, 13 1/3 IP, 36.5 K%, 2.03 ERA, 3.07 FIP Kody Funderburk’s work in August was so notable that the Twins called him up to the majors to help provide middle relief depth down the stretch. He made two outings there—one excellent, the other dreadful. Nonetheless, Funderburk appears ready for the major-league challenge; the lefty crushed his AAA competition in August, striking out batters at a Haderian level while often acquiring more than just three outs. His sinker/slider/weird cutting fastball combination looks quirky enough to keep hitters on their toes, leading to batters wondering what in the world they just swung at. With nothing left to prove at AAA, this may be Funderburk’s final mention in this series. 3. RHP Mike Paredes - A+ Cedar Rapids, 14 2/3 IP, 30.6 K%, 2.45 ERA, 1.92 FIP A late 2021 draftee, Mike Paredes has now had back-to-back seasons with an ERA in the low 3s. The peripherals aren’t as sexy as other pitchers, but the run prevention has been tremendous—and it looks like Paredes found his strikeout stuff in August. I originally had him off the list, but looking at his numbers, I had to find a place for him somewhere, even if I had full write ups for five other players. Paredes had a disastrous outing on the 16th, but was otherwise stellar for the Kernels, bringing stability to games with quality multi-inning outings. He even vultured three wins. The 22-year-old could very well find himself in Wichita in 2023. 2. RHP Ricardo Velez - A Fort Myers, 15 1/3 IP, 40.7 K%, 1.17 ERA, 1.60 FIP Pound for pound, perhaps no reliever was better in August than Ricardo Velez. He was dynamite for the Mighty Mussels, striking out batters at a rate reserved only for the truly elite bullpen arms. Born in Puerto Rico, Velez attended the University of Science and Arts of Oklahoma, an NAIA school originally founded as a women’s only institution with an attendance of around 800 (sorry, I’m fascinated by small schools like this). Anyways, Velez barely pitched in 2021 and 2022 in the Twins system before breaking out as a big-time punch-out arm in 2023; his strikeout rate on the year is over 30%. Velez probably should have taken the crown for reliever of the month, but the piece was written and the thumbnail was made before his final, outstanding outing on August 31st. Should have dominated earlier! In all seriousness, it was an incredible month for a pitcher off most peoples radar. 1. RHP Patrick Murphy - AAA St. Paul, 22 IP, 32.6 K%, 2.45 ERA, 4.18 FIP The imposing hard-throwing Patrick Murphy was not your typical reliever in August; he made just one outing that didn’t go for multiple innings as the Saints tried to stretch him into a long relief weapon. It worked. Murphy dominated every multi-frame outing to the tune of a 1.29 ERA and 27 strikeouts over 21 innings. Armed with a fiery fastball and a sharp breaking ball, Murphy appears well-prepared to succeed if the Twins asked him to return to the majors; he owns just under 40 career major-league frames. If not, the Saints will happily watch Murphy gobble up innings with his impressive strikeouts rate and quasi-starter stamina. View full article