Matt Braun

I am officially fascinated by Rayne Doncon. His damage is coming with a walk rate higher than his strikeout rate, which you don't see every day. Let's see if he keeps it up.

That was almost fun. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Joe Ryan: 5 ⅓ IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K Home Run(s): Trevor Larnach (1) Bottom 3 WPA: Caleb Thielbar (-.327), Joe Ryan (-.228), Kyle Farmer (-.104) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) No introduction to this game could have matched the stadium’s mood more than the opening frames; a cold, miserable late-April aura fueled the frigid team’s early performance, perhaps a little too on the nose. Joe Ryan allowed a sharp double to Kerry Carpenter. He scored when Edouard Julien’s short hop skidded strangely on the wet grass. Christian Vázquez stood at home masquerading as a particularly embarrassed matador. 1-0 Detroit. But, fortune changed quickly. The Twins did have someone looking after them, after all. Jack Flaherty inexplicably offered a token of friendship in the form of a low 0-2 fastball—an attempt to “sneak cheese past a rat,” as Justin Morneau interpreted it. The ball landed 415 feet away. Minnesota now had the lead. Because the 2024 Twins play a strange, cursed form of baseball, with higher beings frowning on them like a disapproving father, the game had no choice but to turn bizarre. A strike soon turned into a ball. The unearned runner—as anyone and everyone predicted—scored when Wenceel Perez flared a single to left. Once more, Carpenter held up and was rewarded when his check swing bled beyond Willi Castro’s grasp. The two hits were 68.7 and 68.1 MPH, respectively. That’s even too slow for the right lane. Not long after this point, Detroit plated a fourth run when Carpenter did himself one better and plopped one into left field at 57.6 MPH after Perez tripled. Ryan was left wondering what sins he committed to invoke such a wrath. Finally, the great luck spotlight moved its focus: Ryan Jeffers reached on an error from Perez, setting the stage for Byron Buxton to uppercut a slider into left, just tricky enough to avoid a glove. He scored two but lingered too long at home plate to reach further than 2nd base. That was the best of it; Caleb Thielbar surrendered a run in the top of the 9th, and the Twins couldn't respond fast enough, dropping the game after some mild late-inning excitement fell by the wayside. The loss pushed Minnesota to 6-12, fourth place in the division, with only the lifeless White Sox sitting behind them. Notes: Joe Ryan is five strikeouts away from passing Juan Rincon for 34th place on the all-time Twins strikeouts leaderboard. Caleb Thielbar is five outings away from passing Tyler Duffey for 18th place on the all-time Twins appearances pitching leaderboard. Minnesota's pitching staff has struck out 181 batters, 6th most among MLB teams. Kody Funderburk lowered his career ERA to 0.92. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins and Tigers will play on Saturday, with first pitch coming at 1:10 PM. Bailey Ober will start opposite Detroit’s Reese Olson. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

Just a bad pitching staff in general. A 6.84 ERA, a 1.80 WHIP, and just 54 strikeouts to 48 walks. Woof.

Someone, please send a good luck charm to Wichita. Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily (photo of Yunior Severino) TRANSACTIONS LHP Caleb Thielbar completes rehab, rejoins Twins RHP Simeon Woods Richardson optioned to AAA St. Paul RHP Jorge Alcalá optioned to AAA St. Paul Saints Sentinel St. Paul 13, Iowa 11 Box Score SP: Caleb Boushley: 4 ⅔ IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K HR: Diego A. Castillo (2), Yunior Severino (2), Chris Williams (1) Multi-hit games: Diego A. Castillo (4-for-5, HR, 3 R, 2 RBI), Yunior Severino (2-for-5, HR, 2B, 2 R, 5 RBI), Chris Williams (3-for-5, HR, 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI), Tanner Morris (3-for-5, 2B, R), Yoyner Fajardo (2-for-4, 2 R, 2 RBI) One did not have to search for runs in this game. The Saints kicked off the havoc with their very first batter; Diego A. Castillo launched a solo homer to lead off the game, starting a streak where at least one run was scored in every inning, no exceptions. The mayhem peaked in the 3rd for St. Paul, when a three-run homer from Yunior Severino and a two-hit inning from Castillo marked a six-run bludgeoning of the Cubs' pitching staff. That was a step too far. Iowa decided to answer back. They clawed through the middle and late innings, scoring in four straight frames to turn what was once a laugher into a legitimate competition. Jordan Balazovic and Hobie Harris caught the worst of it; both pitchers exited the game with a season ERA of 8.10 following their outings. Ronny Henriquez finally established some version of order, giving up just a solo homer in his two innings of work. Iowa's Patrick Wisdom collected two hits and walked twice while on his rehab assignment. Right fielder Owen Cassie is the Cubs' 3rd-best prospect. He went 0-6 with two RBIs. WIND SURGE WISDOM Wichita 7, Springfield 8 Box Score SP: A.J. Alexy: 3 ⅔ IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 6 BB, 2 K HR: Carson McCusker (1), Jeferson Morales (1) Multi-hit games: None The Wind Surge collapsed late on Sunday. It once looked promising. Wichita held a 7-2 advantage going into the game’s third act—a lead even the most anxious manager could feel safe with. Their bats had been patient and potent; a pair of runs in the 2nd begat a Jeferson Morales grand slam in the 4th, as walks clogged the bases, and critical hits emptied them. The runs were needed because A.J. Alexy was not sharp. His six walks pushed his season total to an unthinkable 12 over just seven innings of work. That wildness was effective, though, and Springfield could only muster one hit against him. You can't hit what isn't in the zone. The Cardinals finally attacked in the 8th, piling onto Jared Solomon with a barrage of hits, capped by a go-ahead three-run homer off the bat of Matt Lloyd. Wichita couldn’t answer, dropping their record to an abysmal 1-8 to start the year. Former Twins farmhand Ryan Shreve tossed a pair of scoreless innings for the Cardinals. Springfield’s starter, Edwin Nuñez, was the best prospect on the Cardinals on Sunday. He pitched 2 ⅔ innings and allowed two earned runs. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 4, Dayton 2 Box Score SP: C.J. Culpepper: 4 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K HR: Luke Keaschall (2), Jay Harry (2) Multi-hit games: Luke Keaschall (2-for-3, HR, R, RBI, BB) Despite totaling just four hits, the Kernels won on Saturday. It helps when two of those are homers; Luke Keaschall blasted his second homer of the year with a 1st-inning shot, and Jay Harry cracked a go-ahead three-run bomb in the 7th. Keaschall’s season OPS is now 1.015. He also swiped his fifth base of the season. C.J. Culpepper was his usual, reliable self, allowing a quick run in the 1st before settling down for four solid frames. He struck out three and walked one over 52 pitches. Juan Mercedes, pitching in relief, was maybe even better: he earned eight outs to usher the game through the middle innings, and the only run scored on his watch came on brutal defense ahead and behind him. Ricardo Olivar airmailed the throw on a steal. Willie Joe Garry Jr. overran the ball. The runner—perhaps confused as to why his path home was uncontested—scored easily. Mercedes shook off the defensive lapse, and Jordan Carr danced around command issues to end the game with a Kernels victory. Cam Collier, once desired by the Twins in the 2022 draft, was the best prospect on the field for Dayton on Sunday. He singled once in four at-bats and knocked in a run. MUSSEL MATTERS Fort Myers 3, Clearwater 5 Box Score Paulshawn Pasqualotto: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K HR: None Multi-hit games: None The Mighty Mussels stumbled on Saturday. It was all TJayy Walton’s fault. Clearwater’s left fielder cracked a double and a homer on his way towards five RBIs—every run the Threshers scored on Saturday. Maybe they should have just walked him. His terror partially soiled Paulshawn Pasqualotto’s first professional start. The 2023 12th-round pick dominated in his outing last Sunday, perhaps inspiring the Mighty Mussels to push him into the rotation. He topped out at 94.6 MPH and punched out six batters over four innings of work. All of Fort Myers’ offense came during a hectic 3rd inning: Threshers’ pitcher Mavis Graves quickly struck out two batters before melting down and allowing a walk, three hits, a balk, a wild pitch, and one final walk to end his game. Rehabbing big leaguer Trevor Larnach went 0-4 with three flyouts and a groundout. Recent promotee Gregory Duran hit a ball 107.5 MPH, the hardest hit ball of the game for either team. The aforementioned Walton is the Threshers’ highest-ranked prospect; he is ranked 18th on MLB Pipeline’s list of Phillies prospects. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – C.J. Culpepper Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Diego A. Castillo PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #4 - Gabriel Gonzalez (Cedar Rapids) - 0-4 #7 - Austin Martin (Minnesota) - 1-4, K #12 - Luke Keaschall (Cedar Rapids) - 2-3, HR, R, RBI, BB #13 - Kala’i Rosario (Wichita) - 0-4, BB, K #14 - C.J. Culpepper (Cedar Rapids) - 4 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K #16 - Yunior Severino (St. Paul) - 2-for-5, HR, 2B, 2 R, 5 RBI #19 - Ricardo Olivar (Cedar Rapids) - 1-3, 2B, R, K TUESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Indianapolis (5:05 PM) - RHP Randy Dobnak Tulsa @ Wichita (7:05 PM) - TBD Cedar Rapids @ Wisconsin (6:45 PM) - TBD Jupiter @ Fort Myers (6:05 PM) - RHP Ty Langenberg View full article

I know that someone has to take the loss, but, man, Griffin Jax being that person just doesn't sit right. Also, there's no way that should have been a hit.

Yes. The winning team must be up by 10 or more in the 9th, and the losing team must be down by at least eight runs but can use a position player in any inning once that target is met.

Maybe we should have rooted for the rain. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Pablo López: 4 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 7 K Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Pablo López (-.180), Austin Martin (-.085), Carlos Correa (-.065) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) One day wasn’t enough to wait before baseball could be played in Detroit; the previous day’s dampness rolled over and pushed back the game start about an hour. The beauty of April baseball in the Midwest. The weather affected all: neither starter was as sharp as usual, and Adam Beck, calling the game behind the plate, chose to read Gone With the Wind between deciding strikes. Pablo López caught the worst of it, though. He kicked off the game by allowing a solo homer to Mark Canha before only escaping the frame when Kerry Carpenter inexplicably attempted to go first-to-third on a hit aimed directly towards Byron Buxton. Kyle Farmer chose War And Peace to hold him over while waiting for the runner. That inning portended significant labor. Even the clean innings felt painful; a 1-2-3 scoreless 3rd needed 19 pitches. The dam finally broke when dinks, dunks, and a poorly placed fastball to Riley Greene suddenly bloated his earned run total for the day to five, pushing Rocco Baldelli to trudge to the mound and remove his ace. López’s off night would have meant more had Minnesota’s offense not remained impotent and unintimidating. They did an admiral job keeping Tarik Skubal inefficient, but the big bop never came. Even the hits were toothless; the pair of infield singles that stood as the only hits they had against Skubal could have just as easily been wiped from the ledger had Detroit’s defense been sharper. Michael Tonkin made his first appearance as a Twin since September 30th, 2017. He allowed a pair of runs and struck out five. The rest of the game was something that happened, I’m sure of it, but its existence rivaled muck and caused a deep glazing of the eyes. Both teams sleepwalked towards inevitability, only occasionally stopping for the rare notable side-show or added run. Willi Castro pitched once the game reached the proper MLB-state-approved run difference. Christian Vázquez played 3rd base. Eyes rolled. Mercifully, the game ended after a small 9th-inning skirmish made the beating a little less brutal. Carlos Correa exited the game with a right oblique strain. He is expected to hit the IL. Before he left, he was still able to make a fabulous diving play. Notes: Kyle Farmer earned his first hit of the season with a 9th-inning double down the 1st-base line. Michael Tonkin first played with the Twins in 2013. The closer for that team was Glen Perkins, who served as the color commentator for Friday's game. Minnesota's pitchers struck out 15 batters, their highest total of the year. Kody Funderburk's career ERA is now 0.98. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins and Tigers will play a straight doubleheader on Saturday. Joe Ryan will start game 1, and Simeon Woods Richardson will serve as the 27th man and pitch in game 2. First pitch is at 12:10 PM. Second pitch will be 30 minutes after the end of game 1. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

Rayne came over from the Dodgers along with Manuel Margot in exchange for Noah Miller.

Anyone know where to find some pitching? Image courtesy of William Parmeter (photo of Rayne Doncan) TRANSACTIONS LHP Aaron Rozek transferred to AAA St. Paul RHP Jeff Brigham placed on 7-day IL retroactive to April 6 with a left oblique strain (St. Paul) Saints Sentinel St. Paul 1, Nashville 8 Box Score Simeon Woods Richardson: 3 ⅓ IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 4 K HR: Will Holland (1) Multi-hit games: None Oh, if you could remove just one inning. Through three frames, Simeon Woods Richardson looked marvelous. He dazzled the Sounds with his overhand off-speed stuff, leading to a pair of strikeouts and a slate you could eat breakfast off. Everything appeared fine until the 4th went as follows: walk, single, strikeout, single, walk, double, single, double. Joe Gunkel was summoned to earn the final two outs. He allowed a home run. So it goes. That story would have been more painful had St. Paul’s offense been anything but dreadful, as it was on Sunday. Their lone run came when Will Holland plopped a fly ball into left field, inspiring Nashville’s Chavez Young to ungracefully slide around the ball as Holland dashed around the bases to score an inside-the-park home run—perhaps the most fitting score for a game like this. New Saint Diego A. Castillo went 0-for-3 in his second game with the squad. St. Paul’s bullpen combined for 4 2/3 quality innings of relief, striking out five without a walk. Tyler Black—the 43rd prospect in baseball and 4th-best player in Milwaukee’s farm system—went 1-for-4 while scoring a run. WIND SURGE WISDOM Wichita 8, Frisco 12 Box Score Pierson Ohl: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K HR: Kala’i Rosario (2), Noah Cardenas (1) Multi-hit games: Tanner Schobel (2-for-3, R, 2 BB), Andrew Cossetti (2-for-4, R, RBI), Carson McCusker (3-for-4, 2 2B, 2 R) The Wind Surge lost a wild one on Sunday. If you tuned in at the start of the 2nd inning and left following the 6th, you’d probably think this was the most boring game of baseball ever played; assorted walks and hits scattered to give those frames some noise, but the action never grew beyond pianissimo, as the pitchers kept everything in order. Outside of those frames? Hell. Pure chaos. The kind of mayhem that drives a manager crazy. Frisco kicked off the game with a three-spot in the 1st, only to be doubled in effort by the Wind Surge, who plated six before their half of the inning ended. Kala’i Rosario stroked his second three-run shot of the season. Noah Cardenas drove one out to right. All appeared settled. And so it was, for a time; Pierson Ohl regained his composure and fended off the Rough Riders for four more frames, eventually walking away with just one hit allowed beyond his nightmare opening inning. Frisco did the same, keeping Wichita at bay during the middle innings. Then, the 7th. The dam broke. Frisco plated two, then scored two more in the 8th, and finally capped their onslaught with a drumming of Wichita’s Miguel Rodriguez in the 9th, handing him a 135.00 ERA to start his season (that is not a typo). The Wind Surge did claim a small lead when Frisco played hot potato with the baseball in the 8th, but they could not overcome their late mistakes. Abimelec Ortiz claims the title as Frisco’s best prospect. The man ranked 12th in the Rangers’ system by MLB Pipeline went 2-for-4 with three RBIs and a walk. KERNELS NUGGETS Mother nature objected to a second relevant Iowa sporting event on Sunday, leaving the Kernels sopping and baseball-less. Their game will be made up as part of a doubleheader on Saturday, April 27th. MUSSEL MATTERS Fort Myers 5, Tampa 2 Box Score Tanner Hall: 1 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K HR: Rayne Doncon (1) Multi-hit games: Byron Chourio (2-for-4, 2 R, RBI), Rayne Doncon (2-for-4, HR, 2B, R, 3 RBI), Wilfri Castro (2-for-3, 2B, R, RBI) The Mighty Mussels breezed to a victory on Sunday. It did not start pleasantly. Starter Tanner Hall walked Tampa’s lead-off man, George Lombard Jr. (now that’s a baseball name), and watched him reach third base on a botched throw attempt to halt his steal attempt. He scored two batters later. Another run scored when Dylan Jasso tripled to right. Hall’s day concluded at the end of the frame—and the Mighty Mussels needed to respond quickly. They did just that. Byron Chourio smacked a single to center before Rayne Doncon's big, twitchy bat summoned him home on Fort Myers’ first homer of the season. That 0-2 hanger begat a 98.9 MPH, 388-foot shot for Doncon. The lead only increased from there: Wilfri Castro poked a double down the left-field line to give the Mighty Mussels the lead, and Chourio singled him home to stretch the advantage to two. Doncon’s second extra-base hit of the day gave Fort Myers a three-run cushion, more than enough to support their pitching on Sunday. Paulshawn Pasqualotto (I take it back; now that is a baseball name) spearheaded the effort on the mound with five clean innings of relief. The Cal Berkeley product made his pro debut, fanning three and topping out at 95.9 MPH while throwing nearly as many changeups as heaters. He earned eight total swings-and-misses. Tampa is led by Roderick Arias, the Yankees’ third-best prospect and the 81st highest-rated prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline. The second baseman went 0-4 with three strikeouts. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Paulshawn Pasqualotto Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Rayne Doncon PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #3 - Emmanuel Rodriguez (Wichita) - 0-3, R, 2 BB, K #10 - Brandon Winokur (Fort Myers) - 1-3, BB, 2 K #11 - Tanner Schobel (Wichita) - 2-3, R, 2 BB, K #13 - Kala’i Rosario (Wichita) - 1-5, HR, R, 3 RBI, 3 K #16 - Yunior Severino (St. Paul) - 0-2, BB #20 - Simeon Woods Richardson (St. Paul) - 3 ⅓ IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 4 K TUESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Iowa @ St. Paul (4:07 PM) - RHP Caleb Boushley Wichita @ Springfield (6:35 PM) - TBD Dayton @ Cedar Rapids (6:35 PM) - TBD Fort Myers @ Clearwater (5:30 PM) - LHP Cesar Lares View full article

It wasn't misleading; it was true. St. Paul did not score just one run. Perhaps I believed describing it that way added a dramatic allure.

Really, it should be called "the St. Paul report." At least until next Friday. Image courtesy of Grayson Wolfe, Twins Daily TRANSACTIONS There were no moves. Saints Sentinel St. Paul 5, Columbus 4 Box Score Brent Headrick: 3 ⅔ IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K HR: None Multi-hit games: Anthony Prato (2-for-3, 2 R, 2 BB) Brent Headrick, the slender lefty, made his 2024 debut on Sunday. He faced trouble immediately. He allowed three hits in the opening frame but escaped without an earned run thanks to two fortunate outcomes: a double play split between the knocks and a ground-rule double called despite neither outfielder raising his arms in surrender. The decision removed a score. Now blessed with a fresh slate, Headrick dominated; eight of his 11 outs came via whiffs. He topped out at 93.8 and earned 12 swings-and-misses. His lone error was a two-run shot in the third. A critical part of Headrick's success? His breaking ball. "In the cold weather, the off-speed is important," he told our resident reporter, Theo Tollefson. "So seeing the slider [that the] was able to be in the zone and out of the zone where it needed to be was a positive." Perhaps fueled by Headrick’s tremendous effort, the rest of St. Paul’s pitchers on the day—an assortment of relievers mirroring the group needed by the parent club—combined to punch out 14 with two walks. One of those pitchers was a familiar name: Diego Castillo. The one-time dominant Ray inked a minor-league deal with the Twins on Saturday, and he reached the mound on Sunday. St. Paul’s equipment manager wastes no time. Castillo pitched a scoreless frame, topping out at 94.7 MPH. This four-paragraph ode to the Saints’ pitching staff offers thin protection for an ultimate truth: St. Paul’s bats were sluggish. They took four walks but failed to score outside of when DaShawn Keirsey Jr. flipped an RBI single into left in the 3rd inning. Until the 9th, that is. The seemingly magic frame that flips narratives and breathes life struck once again when the Saints—once presumed dead—rose to score the game-tying run. Anthony Prato singled. A wild pitch moved him to 2nd. A groundout sent him to 3rd. A sacrifice fly beckoned him home. The hero's journey in manufactured form. The game officially transitioned to Manfredball. The teams exchanged implied runs in the 10th before moving to the 11th. Columbus scored one more run. The Saints scored more. With the bases loaded and an 0-for-4 weighing on his conscience, Yoyner Fajardo swung at a lethargic cutter and smacked the pitch up the middle. José Tena dove to stop the ball. He didn’t. The adventure ended with Prato galloping around 3rd as Columbus’ centerfielder Lorenzo Cedrola never even bothered with a courtesy throw home. "He's a guy who's always going to give you a competitive at-bat," said Saints hitting coach Shawn Schlechter, "and we knew that even with the left-on-left matchup, he was a guy who could create some action by putting a ball in play. In those situations, we trust that he's going to grind out at-bats, and he's going to see pitches to move it forward." Columbus shortstop Juan Brito homered and drove in three in a 3-for-5 effort. He is Cleveland’s 7th-ranked prospect according to MLB pipeline. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Brent Headrick Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Anthony Prato PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #16 - Yunior Severino (St. Paul) - 0-5. 3 K TUESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Nashville (6:35 PM) - RHP Simeon Woods Richardson View full article

I'm quite impressed with Cole Ragans. I think KC found a good one there. Liked to see Correa lining the ball all over the field, as well. Hoping Royce is ok!

Corey Seager? The 6'4" Corey Seager who OPS'd .915 at AA at the same age Noah Miller did .648 at A+?

This is an excellent question. I wish I had more expertise to better answer it. My *guess* would be the access to American colleges makes a world of difference. Players entering from the collegiate level have three years of competition at a fairly high level and teaching at institutions that honestly may be better than MLB franchises in some respects. That’s a hell of a head start. Hard to beat that.

The Minnesota Twins' ace is an extremely rare breed. Just how so may surprise you. Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports Pablo López’s 2023 was outstanding. This site has spent most of the offseason interrogating his numbers to tell you just that. Indeed, his 3.33 FIP and relatively impressive bulk of consumed innings netted him 4.5 fWAR—the 10th-best in MLB among starting pitchers. Zach Eflin, a former 1st-round pick from the Padres, was ahead of him, and George Kirby, Seattle’s 1st-round selection from 2019, slotted in right behind him. And—to finally clarify where any of this is going—the 12th-ranked starting pitcher was Framber Valdez, the only other starter in the top 15 to be an international free agent signing. Quietly, international amateurs rarely become quality major-league starters. This isn’t a new phenomenon. Ten years ago, the great Félix Hernández dominated pitching leaderboards, with José Quintana not far behind him and Julio Teherán and Ervin Santana farther down. Over the last 10 years—excluding 2020—49 individual seasons ending in a top-30 starting pitcher fWAR season were accomplished by a pitcher signed as an international amateur, meaning they made up about 16.3 percent of those leaderboards. In 2018, the share dipped as low as 10 percent (three of the top 30), with a handful of years clocking in at 20 percent, the highwater mark over this time. Position players, though? International free agents have accounted for 67 individual leaderboard-worthy seasons, or 22.3 percent of the total. Last season crushed any year put forth by pitchers, with 10 different international players accruing enough fWAR to make the top 30. That’s ⅓ of the list! So, what’s happening here? Why is it that every year, there seems to be a new Juan Soto or Fernando Tatis Jr. fighting for MVP votes (get ready for Jackson Chourio, very soon!), while Sandy Alcántara essentially serves as the lone international superstar in recent years to claim the rubber as the place to showcase his craft? Part of it is the result of an axiom anyone who played Little League knows about: the best athletes play shortstop or center field. Hell, Minnesota’s top two international signings just a month ago—Daibel De Los Santos and Eduardo Beltre—call those positions home. Miguel Sanó was initially announced as a shortstop when he signed (although no one really believed that he would stay there). If you’re good enough to get major-league talent evaluators to care about you, you’re probably playing at either of those premium positions. There’s more to it, though: the issue is one of resources and organizational decision-making influenced by the Rule 5 draft disproportionately affecting international players. This was something touched on in a previous piece about Johan Santana. Teams only have a few years (typically five, for young international players) before they can choose their role in a player’s future: do they place trust in them and use one of their few, precious 40-man spots on a potential that may never come; or do they cut their losses and move on? Minnesota—and Santana, for that matter—reaped the benefits of Houston doubting him, thanks to the Twins teams of that era not being particularly good, but a competing team can’t afford the same risk. They’re more likely to cut bait. Or, instead, move them to the bullpen. Indeed, international pitchers aren’t disappearing; they just enter later in the game. Teams would rather see some return on their investment, after all, and relievers have a better chance of sticking around than starters. An astronomical 27 percent of top-30 relief seasons over the past 10 years are from international amateurs, with guys like Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen showing up perennially. That number has shot up to 37 percent over the last two seasons (although the missed COVID year also probably feeds into that.) It’s a tough life for an international pitcher. At around the same age when collegiate pitchers are a year or two into their careers, they enter a brutal fork in the road, where—if there’s any doubt in their ability to stay a starter—the overwhelming odds point towards a move to the bullpen. Eric Longenhagen broke this problem down to its most granular studs. López’s imminent need to be added to the 40-man likely pushed Seattle to deal him away at the trade deadline in 2017. Again, a not-good team (Miami) could afford the risk, and they saw him develop into a solid starter before shipping him off to Minnesota. That’s the good outcome; Pablo is probably a regular in the Mariners pen in most universes. Perhaps a move back to the pre-2006 Rule 5 eligibility could cut down on the unnecessary shuffling, where teams move international pitchers with extreme recklessness. Their timelines don’t work. Outside of the freaks and phenoms like Félix (or even Pablo, to a degree), the current pipeline sends these arms straight to the bullpen without much of a chance to make it as a starter. MLB needs to extend them a lifeline—or give them more time to develop. View full article

And I think the pivot into this direction has less to do with copying the Rays, but, rather, seeing the dearth of quality starting pitching available, and deciding mashing together frames like a Frankenstein's monster pitching staff is way smarter than handing almost $20 million a year to Lucas Giolito.

Jeffers is a tough one because his batted ball only improved slightly and actually downgraded as far as barrel rate goes. I think skepticism around the BABIP spike is warranted, but his raw power likely keeps him around league average as a hitter, perhaps a little better.

What does Baseball Prospectus’s flagship projection system think of Minnesota’s batters? Image courtesy of © John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports Yesterday, we looked at the projections for the men who will toe the rubber for the Twins in 2024. Today, we’ll analyze the hitting side of things. I’ve chosen to use DRC+ as the sole hitting metric, simply because it’s the cleanest one Baseball Prospectus offers, and lord knows no one wants to read a table bigger than it should be. If you want a rundown on what exactly that stat means, click here. I’ve added the top comps for each player, mainly because I find the exercise fun. They’re based specifically on age, so Carlos Correa’s Jim Fregosi comp—sorry, spoilers—relates to Correa moving into his age-29 season compared to Fregosi’s career up to that point. Also, don’t take them too seriously. Some comps are way closer than others, and just because someone is likened to another player doesn’t mean they’re cursed with the weight of mimicking their career. Anyway, on to the projections: Nothing is too shocking here. Royce Lewis gets a much heartier projection than last year, thanks to his increased sample of dominance. He’s the 72nd-best position player in the league, which is incredibly impressive considering that systems like PECOTA are typically suspicious of players with a limited history of crushing the ball. It’s hard to fake that kind of power, though. Edouard Julien is an interesting case. Robert Orr laid out in a piece a few days ago that PECOTA will naturally be skeptical of a young player striking out at a 30+% clip while BABIPing .370, regardless of their contact quality. It’s certainly possible that that’s simply how his game works—and his plate discipline is legit, buoying his profile—but projection systems need to see more before they begin to give a guy like him the benefit of the doubt. Consider him a tough one to figure. Perhaps the most shocking result is that Emmanuel Rodriguez, despite only reaching High-A in 2023, is projected to hold his own at the major-league level. Holding a .400 OBP over 99 games in a tough hitting environment obviously impressed the computer. That comp got a chuckle out of me, too. Speaking of comps: I wasn’t expecting Carlos Santana’s to send me on a history trip like that. Earl Torgeson was a very good player, though, and one of the best the state of Washington ever bore. Finally, I didn’t put him on the table, but Brooks Lee was way, way down the list, somewhere in the 1,000s. I think projecting anything solely based on minor-league stats can yield some goofy results. Still, perhaps his performance so far deserves more scrutiny than we’re giving it. Or maybe not. We’ll earn a better understanding of him as a player once he sees playing time in the majors—which could come as soon as this season. If you would like to see any of this PECOTA stuff yourself, consider heading over to Baseball Prospectus's website to subscribe and read some of the best baseball writing in the business. Their alumni include Brandon Warne and Aaron Gleeman, and our editor, Matthew Trueblood, writes pieces for them as well. No one told me to write this; I truly believe they are one the best resources for analytical and creative baseball thinking currently in operation. What are your reactions to these projections for the Twins offense? Which ones jump out? Where do you disagree with PECOTA. Weigh in below. View full article