Matt Braun

Sometimes, it's Jordan Luplow and Christian Vázquez carrying the squad. Image courtesy of Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Joe Ryan: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K Home Runs: Jordan Luplow (2), Christian Vázquez (5), Jorge Polanco (11) Top 3 WPA: Jordan Luplow (.356), Joe Ryan (.172), Christian Vázquez (.085) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) It was Joe Ryan vs Max Scherzer, again. The two matched up last Saturday in Minnesota, resulting in a Texas win after the Rangers jumped on the Twins bullpen in the 9th inning. It was their only win of the series. Friday was more of the same; the two starters were on their game, earning whiffs and frustrated looks from hitters as they confounded and dazzled all day. Scherzer had his vintage form. Every pitch worked. When hitters expected the fastball, he snuck in a breaker. And vice versa. The Twins pushed a runner to second base on a few separate occasions, but it never really mattered; Scherzer always clamped down on the potential rally, making hitters prefer the un-embarrassing fortress of the dugout rather than the mockery-inducing batter’s box. Ryan matched him. There’s less of a guessing game with him—you’re getting a fastball; good luck hitting it—but Rangers batters looked silly nonetheless. He diced through an elite Texas lineup, earning seven strikeouts with only three hits allowed. But, naturally, one of those hits was a homer. Corey Seager—always Corey Seager—correctly predicted one of those rising fastballs was on the way, and he blistered the offering deep into the night to give Texas a slim 1-0 lead. It was the only run Ryan allowed. He had some help from Andrew Stevenson. It was at least a little surprising that Bruce Bochy ended Scherzer’s night after just six frames. The ace to end all aces in modern times threw only 88 pitches; surely, he had more in him. (Edit: Scherzer exited with forearm tightness.)The lefty Brock Burke took the mound. He allowed a floppy single to Carlos Correa before Rocco Baldelli sent Jordan Luplow out to hit for Matt Wallner. The move worked brilliantly. Luplow took a mighty hack at a heater on the outside corner, cracking a fly ball deep into the right field bleachers that—seemingly impossibly—stayed fair. Christian Vázquez followed suit with an eerily similar shot. Yet again, as if they were fueled by Texas’ infamous bullpen, the Twins blasted another homer—this one a two-run shot by Jorge Polanco to give the team a 5-1 advantage. So, now, the onus was on Minnesota's bullpen to not screw up royally, at least in comparison to Texas' blunders. Griffin Jax didn't. Neither did Caleb Thielbar. With the weight of Ryan's excellent start, and the pressure from Cleveland's earlier victory against the Rays on his mind, Baldelli went with the overkill option, handing the ball to Jhoan Duran in a non-save situation. The stud reliever needed to get back on the horse. He certainly wasn't dominant, but he earned three clean outs, ending the game without drama or stress. Notes: Andrew Stevenson earned his first major-league hit since October 2nd, 2021. He also stole two bases. Joe Ryan has allowed two earned runs over 11 innings since coming off the IL. Jorge Polanco has homered three times in his last six games. Ryan Jeffers is 5-for-6 when pinch-hitting in 2023. Updated Standings Post-Game Interview: What's Next: The Twins and Rangers will play the second game of their series on Saturday, with first pitch coming at 6:15 P.M. A pair of lefties named after Southern cities, Dallas Keuchel and Jordan Montgomery, will face off against each other. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

A champ on the 2019 Nationals toasted AAA enough to earn a promotion to the Twins. Image courtesy of Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports As reported by Do-Hyoung Park, the Twins have called up outfielder Andrew Stevenson as part of September’s roster expansion. In his first season with the Twins organization, Stevenson played in 106 games with the St. Paul Saints, slashing .317/.394/.522 (.916) with 16 homers, 91 runs, and 44 stolen bases. That last number may be the most pertinent; the Twins are stagnant on the bases outside of Willi Castro and Michael A. Taylor, so adding Stevenson deepens their pinch-running pockets, allowing the team to be a little more aggressive later in ballgames. Stevenson’s glove is also considered plus, according to Eric Longenhagen’s 2018 prospect report on him. Stevenson, 29, has 248 MLB games under his belt, all with the Washington Nationals. Most of his playing time came in 2021, when he hit .229/.294/.339 (.633) in 213 plate appearances. He was, though, on the 2019 roster when the Nationals won the World Series, giving the Twins yet another former player from that team (Taylor). Stevenson didn’t factor into the postseason much; his lone appearance came during the infamous Wild Card game vs the Brewers, when he pinch-ran and scored on Juan Soto’s single late in the game. The move leaves Austin Martin out in the cold. Martin crushed AAA pitching in August with a .329/.460/.544 (1.004) slash line and more walks than homers, leading to hushed murmurs on a potential promotion. That will likely have to wait. Although the team could add him if a relevant player is injured, the move signifies a preference for veteran assurance over seeing what the youngster Martin could do. To make room for Stevenson on the 40-man roster, the Twins placed infielder Jose Miranda on the 60-Day Injured List. The other September call-up is left-handed pitcher Brent Headrick. View full article

Good question. I would go Lewis as of now, but Culpepper, Morris, Ohl, and Festa have arguments as well.

Read and rejoice in the starting pitchers who thrived in the month of August. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge An issue that pops up in these lists is that of role assignments: pitchers in the minors often flip-flop between starting and relieving to eat up innings whenever they can. This poses challenges for those who acknowledge the delegation of title, as a starter with one relief appearance is still obviously a starter, but some situations aren't as clear-cut. I did my best to adhere to the spirit of the award while still understanding the sometimes silly nature of minor-league pitching order. Below are the names I thought most deserved to be on the list. Their ranking is entirely subjective; I value innings thrown, as those are outs, and outs are valuable, but also like to weigh strikeouts and peripherals as they can differentiate between dominance and a pitcher merely getting lucky. In times when it's a toss-up, I valued the almighty ERA as the great equalizer—got that? Good; let's start. Honorable mentions: RHP Louie Varland - AAA St. Paul, 23 2/3 IP, 18.6 K%, 1.90 ERA, 4.61 FIP Louie Varland had a sparkling 1.90 ERA in the month of August but walked a few too many people for my liking. Somehow he had eight unearned runs spread across multiple starts, which seems like a lot. Give him some help, Saints defense! RHP Carlos Gutierrez - FCL Twins, 12 2/3 IP, 35.7 K%, 4.26 ERA, 3.71 FIP Carlos Gutierrez allowed a few too many runs to make a serious case for the list, but he also struck out 20 in just over 12 innings. RHP Juan Cota - DSL Twins, 10 IP, 32.4 K%, 2.70 ERA, 1.88 FIP Lacking the innings to overtake other arms, Juan Cota nonetheless whiffed 12 over 10 frames, and only walked one batter—something almost no DSL pitcher ever does. RHP Miguel Cordero - DSL Twins, 9 2/3 IP, 20.5 K%, 2.79 ERA, 3.25 FIP Like Cota, Miguel Cordero showcased unusual command for a DSL pitcher. Even more impressive is Cordero’s fresh age of 17 (he was 16 for most of the season!). He was one of three Twins to appear in the DSL All-Star game. 5. RHP Cory Lewis - A+ Cedar Rapids, 23 1/3 IP, 28.4 K%, 3.09 ERA, 3.01 FIP At this point, Cory Lewis should just start paying rent for how much he lives on these lists. He’s been one of the best pitchers in the system since the season started, totaling a 2.62 ERA with a system-leading 115 strikeouts while pitching for both Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids. August was yet another stellar month for the part-time knuckler and full-time Kernels ace. He had two partial clunkers, holding him back from being even higher on this list, but was otherwise his usual, impressive self with squirrelly stuff and tremendous command. Expect him to rocket up end-of-season prospect lists. 4. RHP John Klein, A Fort Myers/FCL Twins, 21 1/3 IP, 32.5 K%, 2.95 ERA, 3.65 FIP Minnesotan alert! John Klein was born in Brooklyn Park and discovered when pitching for Iowa Central Community College—a university with quite the brotherhood of pro ball players. Klein popped up on the prospect radar after striking out 11 over four frames with the FCL Twins on June 10th (those especially handy with numbers may understand how impressive that is). July wasn’t kind to him, but fortune reversed in August, leading to four impressive starts—two of which were back-to-back starts of six shutout innings. That strikeout rate is especially impressive; he whiffed eight and nine batters respectively in those scoreless starts. 3. RHP Andrew Morris - A+ Cedar Rapids, 27 IP, 20.7 K%, 2.00 ERA, 2.82 FIP There was a time where Andrew Morris once seemed like the runaway winner of this award. His first three August starts were absurdly dominant, highlighted by a nine strikeout start on the 5th, and a seven punch-out outing on the 17th. His final two starts weren’t quite as good—proving the prestigiousness needed to take home honors from us gruff Twins Daily judges—so he’ll have to settle for 3rd place. Hopefully he’s not crestfallen over this bronze medal. Morris’ calling card is a spinny, vertical fastball that often appears to take off, rocketing far higher in the zone than hitters expect. Throw in a semi-crossbody delivery, and it’s understandable to see batters swing wildly at his offerings. The Texas Tech product is now solidly established as a prospect. 2. RHP David Festa - AA Wichita/AAA St. Paul, 20 1/3 IP, 33.3 K%, 1.33 ERA, 2.86 FIP Perhaps Minnesota’s best pitching prospect, David Festa was incredible in August. He allowed just three runs the entire month, steadily increasing his stamina following a short stint dabbling in short stints. The Twins saw enough after a dominant start against the Travelers and sent him to St. Paul. Festa appears well suited to join the crowd of small school arms turned into overwhelming pitching forced by the Falvey regime. He hammers the zone with a dominant fastball and well-command off-speed stuff, making hitters uncomfortable with his twisty windup and great extension. His early-season results weren’t sparkling—they were merely fine—but some of that could be chalked up to the difficult pitching environment that is the Texas League. If you’re looking for the next great Twins starter; here he is. 1. RHP Pierson Ohl - AA Wichita, 30 2/3 IP, 23.4 K%, 1.17 ERA, 2.75 FIP This was not a difficult deliberation; only Festa offered a serious case over Pierson Ohl. The Grand Canyon university product started the month with six shutout frames against the Tulsa Drillers—the Dodgers AA affiliate—and only surged from there, earning a win in each of his appearances. Pick any of his starts in August, and you have a gem on your hands: do you prefer his eight-inning outing on the 8th, or his eight strikeout performance on 26th to end the month? Ohl’s relentless pursuit of throwing strikes appears to be the fuel to his success. Batters simply can never get ahead of him. Falling behind too far only invites a dastardly changeup or a well-spotted fastball that often leaves hitters trudging back to the dugout unable to understand how to deal with Ohl’s craftiness. View full article

The hidden skill aiding Matt Wallner’s stellar rookie season. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports There’s an art to being hit by a pitch. While some only occasionally dabble, perfectly content with letting the pitcher hit him on the hurler’s terms, others know that there’s a successful strategy that can earn him a free—albeit painful—trip to first base. Matt Wallner is one of those players. The rookie lefty has been struck by 12 pitches this season. He’s played in 49 games. Alexi Casilla, Jason Kubel, Ted Uhlaender; these are just a few players who lap Wallner in major-league experience, and none were smoked more than him. Shoot, if you add the two times he was hit last year, he’s already tied with Shannon Stewart, Eduardo Escobar, and Steve Braun. Now that’s a list of names. Is there anything behind this impressive plunking rate? I pulled up every clip of Wallner being plunked (thanks, Baseball Savant!) to see if there’s anything to it. I’ve observed that there are two general styles that constitute a Wallner hit by pitch, with both strategies stemming from a similar place. The first is an elbow-specific move. See if you can spot it: A more strict umpire may call him back for that. He didn’t even try to get out of the way! In fact, I see a slight lean in, just to ensure that Lucas Giolito’s slider scrapes something. This is how a few of his free bases have come; Wallner naturally sets his arms very close to the high-and-tight edge of the strike zone, making it a prime destination for a pitch thrown just a little off. It's earned him a few jogs to first. This isn’t even that bad of an offering from Giolito; Wallner is just hard to miss up there. The second is a stagnant, stoic acceptance in the face of imminent foot danger: Usually you see some sort of exotic dance as a batter realizes a flying, welt-inducing object will soon come into contact with their money-makers. Not Wallner! He has no interest in moving at all. None. He just stands there, accepting the price extracted for a free bag before skipping down the line, perhaps gleeful that he turned a 1-2 situation into a runner on first. I think you can even pinpoint the moment he goes from "focused on fighting off a tough pitch" to "giving in to what he needs to do to turn the situation around." Granted, it required the kind of chutzpah most hitters aren’t willing to procure, but OBP does not discriminate; a base is a base. When I started this analysis, I was expecting a story of a batter hugging the plate, coming so close to the strike zone that he could eat it, something akin to how Anthony Rizzo would occasionally become one with the very location pitchers are aiming for. Wallner is no stranger to the strike zone—he gets cozy with the plate when he wants to—but that doesn’t appear to be exactly what’s going on here. Wallner is a master at not flinching. Plenty of his plunks could have become balls if he simply acted like a normal batter. He is not a normal batter. He has weaponized a rule designed to keep hitters safe, turning it into a legitimate method of reaching base consistently. This isn’t new, either; he was hit 28 times in college, eight times while playing in the Cape Cod League and the AFL, and 43 times in the minors. Lord knows what timid high school pitchers did against him. All told, we’re looking at 93 recordable hit by pitches in just 625 games—a total that decimates Chuck Knoblauch’s Twins record of 74. Can he reach that total? I think he absolutely can. He’s already shown to be adroit at wearing one. Perhaps that rate will slow down at times—hit by pitches are notoriously finicky; he could take two next week or go the rest of the season painless. He may run out of playing time if his rate of pulverizing baseballs slows down, throwing a wrench into the longevity needed to rack up historic numbers. Still, as long as pitchers aren’t perfect, Wallner will be right there, standing, unmoving, and grateful for the one-way ticket to first base. View full article

Thome-esque picture of Wallner, there

14 out of 15 doesn’t mean much if it only comes with six extra-base hits, especially in an offensive-friendly environment. At least that’s how I see it.

Doesn’t have the stuff of other Twins prospects, but no one may have better command. He paints the corners with the best of them.

Looks like Sisk has been at AAA all year. That'll happen when you walk 37 guys in just under 50 innings.

Plus, come see how the Mighty Mussels scored nine off just four hits. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Image is of Willie Joe Garry Jr.) TRANSACTIONS RHP Jordan Balazovic optioned to AAA St. Paul Saints Sentinel St. Paul 3, Omaha 7 Box Score Randy Dobnak: 6 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K HR: Hernán Pérez (8) Multi-hit games: Andrew Stevenson (2-for-4, R, BB), Austin Martin (2-for-4, R), Brooks Lee (2-for-3, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB) The Saints dug themselves into an early hole and never recovered. Fortune can change quickly. St. Paul whiffed on scoring with the bases loaded in the first, after excellent patience placed runners on every base—and their missed opportunity immediately bit them, as Randy Dobnak coughed up three runs. They did finally strike, though, when Brooks Lee cleared two runners off the bases with a double in the 5th. The 22-year-old has struggled since earning a promotion, but Saturday may have been his finest day since joining the Saints; he reached base four times. That was about the height of the game. Dobnak surrendered more runs in the 6th, and the two relievers following him—Alex Scherff and Jordan Balazovic—allowed a run each to put the game too far out of reach. St. Paul made full usage of the bases on Saturday, swiping four bases against the Storm Chasers; Austin Martin stole a pair, with DaShawn Kiersey Jr. and Andrew Stevenson adding steals of their own to the total. Technically old friend Evan Sisk allowed a run over two innings of relief. 2nd baseman Nick Loftin is Kansas City’s 5th-best prospect; he homered and collected three RBIs on Saturday. Wind Surge Wisdom Wichita 2, Arkansas 0 Box Score Pierson Ohl: 5 ⅔ IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K HR: Willie Joe Garry Jr. (2) Multi-hit games: None The Wind Surge won a pitching battle on Saturday. It may have been Pierson Ohl's best start of his professional career; the righty whiffed eight batters, allowing no runs as he came just one out away from earning the elusive quality start. He'll settle for a win. Ohl's AA ERA is now down to 3.06, as—following some early bruises after his promotion—Ohl owns a 1.99 ERA since June 29th. Wichita did just enough to support his effort offensively. Their bats were about as deadened as Arkansas, leading to four hits, two of them for extra bases. Fortunately, one of those hits was this massive tater crushed by Willie Joe Garry Jr. That's certainly not the swing of a batter looking to get cheated! Seth Gray owned the other extra base hit—a 9th inning double. Aaron Rozek and Miguel Rodriguez delivered the game to its end with masterful relief pitching. Rozek obliterated the Travelers with five punchouts, while Rodriguez closed the door with a scoreless 9th. Seattle's typically strong farm system is especially young these days, leaving Jonatan Clase, their 8th-ranked prospect, as the Travelers premier player. He went hitless. Kernels Nuggets Cedar Rapids 14, South Bend 5 Box Score Zebby Matthews: 6 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K HR: Andrew Cossetti (8), Ben Ross (18) Multi-hit games: Kala’i Rosario (3-for-6, 3 R, 3 RBI), Ben Ross (3-for-5, HR, 2B, 4 R, 3 RBI, BB), Misael Urbina (2-for-5, RBI, BB), Jeferson Morales (3-for-5, 2B, 2 RBI, BB) The Kernels blasted their opponents on Sunday. The bloodbath started early. Cedar Rapids had 12 runs after just three innings. They had 11 hits, too. Singles, walks, homers, the team had it all—Noah Miller had hit for the third time before the 2nd ended, and he nearly hit for the fourth time in the 3rd. Andrew Cossetti had the big smash, with a three-run homer that gave him eight on the year with the Kernels, but, really, it was a group effort to put so many runs up as quickly as they did. The team took 24 at-bats with runners in scoring position. Zebby Matthews was acceptable. The righty handed a trio of runs back in a disastrous first inning, but he recovered quickly, allowing a smattering of baserunners, but no further damage. John Stankiewicz followed him with a pair of scoreless frames. Gabriel Yanez oversaw a few unaffecting runs before ending the game. Cossetti is slashing .296/.435/.552 in 2023. MLB’s 76th overall prospect, Kevin Alcantara, singled and struck out in five at-bats. Mussel Matters Ft. Myers 9, Daytona 4 Box Score Jose Olivares: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K HR: None Multi-hit games: Luke Keaschall (2-for-4, 2 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB) The Mighty Mussels exploded late, erasing a 3-0 deficit to handily win Saturday’s game. You aren’t going to see nine runs score on only four hits too often. Fort Myers could find no BABIP fortune—the baseball gods saw to that—but they could walk, and they did so often on Saturday, taking a free base 11 times. Every batter in the lineup walked at least once. Ricardo Olivar was also hit twice. But you still need someone to knock in those runs, though, and Luke Keaschall and Danny De Andrade were the ones who met the challenge. Their doubles, plus a single from Maddux Houghton, proved to be the only run-scoring knocks the team could find; every other run scored on a groundout, a sacrifice fly, or an error. The sudden offensive explosion was a relief, as the pitchers, while not poor, did not dominate the game. Starter Jose Olivares struggled with command. So did 2023 draftee Ty Langenberg. But Matt Gabbert and Samuel Perez had their stuff, steadying the staff while leading the team to a victory with critical scoreless frames. Keaschall is slashing .294/.427/.485 in 19 games with the Mighty Mussels. He already has eight doubles. Cincinnati’s 19th ranked prospect—Victor Acosta—doubled and walked while hitting out of the leadoff spot. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day – Pierson Ohl Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day – Ben Ross PROSPECT SUMMARY Here’s a look at how the Twins Daily Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #1 - Brooks Lee (St. Paul) - 2-3, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB, K #3 - Emmanuel Rodriguez (Cedar Rapids) - 1-6, R, BB, 4 K #5 - Matt Wallner (Minnesota) - 0-3, 2 K #8 - Austin Martin (St. Paul) - 2-4, R, K, 2 SB #12 - Luke Keaschall (Ft. Myers) - 2-4, 2 2B, 2 R, 2 RBI, BB, K #15 - Jordan Balazovic (St. Paul) - 1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K #16 - Kala’i Rosario (Cedar Rapids) - 3-6, 3 R, 3 RBI, 2 K #17 - Yunior Severino (St. Paul) - 0-5, 2 K SUNDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Omaha (2:05 PM) - LHP Michael Boyle Wichita @ Arkansas (1:35 PM) - RHP Travis Adams Cedar Rapids @ South Bend (1:05 PM) - RHP Kyle Jones Daytona @ Fort Myers (11:00 AM) - RHP Juan Mercedes View full article

Two Twins got ejected, the dugouts cleared, and the events weren't even related! Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Sonny Gray: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K Home Runs: Carlos Correa (16), Edouard Julien (11), Max Kepler (21) Top 3 WPA: Sonny Gray (.245), Matt Wallner (.200), Ryan Jeffers (.068) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Dane Dunning had nothing. He may have had less than nothing. The righty couldn’t find the strike zone if a maitre'd was there to guide him. He walked four in the inning, nearly escaping his mess by coaxing a double play from Carlos Correa, but he couldn’t quite fool Matt Wallner around; the rookie lashed a triple into the right field corner, unloading the bases with one fiery smash. Ryan Jeffers knocked in Wallner with a single. Mitch Garver shaved off a run with a solo shot in the following frame—he will return a crucial player in our plot tonight—but Gray suffered no other damage, holding the lead intact after two. The Twins hopped on Dunning once again. They loaded the bases once again, putting themselves in a prime position to crack the game in half. They didn’t do it. Joey Gallo went down looking after seeing a controversial (read: bad) strike call place him down 0-2. Gallo then offered a few selections from George Carlin’s famous 7 Words, and umpire Carlos Torres promptly sent him home for the night. The strike zone had been nebulous. Torres bailed out Dunning’s shakiness with some optimistic strike calls, pushing quite a few Twins fans to openly lament the unnecessary gifts. Rocco Baldelli soon also retired for the night when his discussion with Torres didn’t stop rising in intensity. The ejection was Baldelli’s 16th in his career. The emotions of the night were far from lowering, though. When Gray faced Garver again in the 3rd, the plate appearance lasted one pitch: a fastball directly off the wallet. Jeffers had been smoked earlier in the game, perhaps as a response to his pimped go-ahead homer on Thursday, and it seemed that Gray’s choice to plunk Texas’ catcher—and a former Twin—was a response to the Jeffers beaning. The benches cleared. Not much came of it. And that was the peak of action for a while. Dunning found some semblance of control, enough to carry him through four sloppy frames with no further runs. Gray, on the other hand, was stellar. He didn’t miss as many bats as usual; instead, the veteran opted for subtle, quiet contact as his fielders worked harder than he did. The Rangers did place runners on against him—Gray wasn’t perfectly sharp—but they all walked back to the dugout with frowning demeanors. Gray threw 81 pitches. Oh, but the Twins weren’t done scoring runs. It seemed like they were. Their bats served up five empty innings, appearing to slip into a lethargic state perfectly ok with their first inning work. The 7th turned, though, as Correa cracked a homer to kick off the scoring, eventually leading to RBI knocks from Jeffers (he may need armor tomorrow), and Donovan Solano. Edouard Julien launched a three-run homer. And so on. The Rangers put in a position player in the 8th. And so on. Cole Sands relieved Gray—that’s how safe Jayce Tingler felt with his nine-run lead—and all the Rangers could muster was an unearned run to soften the loss ever so slightly. Notes: Rocco Baldelli's 16th ejection moved him into a tie for 111th all-time. Max Kepler's 21 home runs is the second-most he's hit in a season, 15 behind his 2019 year. Saturday was the 4th time Sonny Gray pitched seven frames in a game in 2023. Carlos Correa's on-base streak extended to 16 games. Post-Game Interview: What’s Next? The Twins and Rangers will play the third game of their series on Saturday. Joe Ryan will come off the IL to make his first start since August 2nd. Max Scherzer will take Target Field’s mound for the first time since September 15th, 2014, when the future Hall-of-Famer was a Tiger. First pitch is at 6:15 PM. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet View full article

When a schedule is even, the nuances of rivalry are lost. Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports I was watching Gavin Williams dominate the Rays on the 12th when it dawned on me that I had yet to see him pitch against the Twins. Maybe that isn’t unusual. He only has 11 career starts, after all. But, I think it’s emblematic of a bigger change amongst MLB: the new schedule. There are certainly perks to having every team in MLB play every other team. Estranged fans in an opposite league’s city no longer have to wait eons to see their favorite team play. Teams in poor divisions—no comment—will find it harder to hide behind their weak foes; outside exposure will reveal just how behind the MLB meta they are. And it’s just plain cool to see Spencer Strider and Mitch Keller pitch against my favorite team, even if Minnesota loses. These are all good things, changes that improve MLB’s ecosystem. But, perhaps, the trade-off—with rivalry games taking a smaller piece of the scheduling pie—creates an adverse effect. Familiarity is important. I instantly remember Ryan Raburn, Brandon Inge, Brennan Boesch, Jeremy Bonderman, Phil Coke—always Phil Coke—Gerald Laird, and a whole bunch of other nondescript members of the 2000s–2010s Tigers. They weren’t the best players. Most never made an All-Star game. Lord knows I saw them plenty, though, so they’ve stuck with me, still pestering and badgering my mind when I should be thinking of other things. I think that matters. Seeing the same names, looking at the same faces, perhaps a little older, more wrinkly and lethargic than they once were, establishes a connection. It makes their achievements more visceral. I really didn’t care too much when Andrew McCutchen blasted a three-run homer the other day, but when Miguel Cabrera went yard, well, There Goes That Bastard Harassing My Favorite Team Once Again. I’ll pop champagne and dance in the street when he retires. As much as it stinks, that feeling—the painful, personal shared experience you feel seeing an old nemesis kill your team once again—draws us to the game. It coaxes Joe Mauer out of the shadows of retirement to congratulate a man who spent his career terrorizing his team. And, Gavin Williams. Just as important as celebrating known enemies is welcoming new ones. Baseball is special in this way. We know Williams not to be just another face, and arm, and shoulder, and torso: he’s the Next Big Thing in a long line of very impressive Cleveland pitchers. He’s the new Cabrera. How can I hate the new Cabrera when I’ve never seen him? Maybe it’s small potatoes only meant to bug the more sentimental amongst us. Maybe I need to stop being weepy and nostalgic about a bunch of people who don’t know I exist. I think it does mean something, though. If this is to be a sport of men with conflicting interests, then the highest drama—the emotions stoked not by an amorphic player—but, rather, someone who has done it over and over, or will soon do it over and over, is the game’s heart and soul. It draws us to love and hate. It draws Tim Anderson and José Ramírez to throw hands. The Twins and Guardians will play two more series against each other before the season ends. Maybe Williams will pitch one or two times, and his dominance will force me to re-think this premise. Or, maybe, the Twins will smoke him, causing me to mock him and Cleveland’s “so-called pitching factory,” and, well, I guess the emotions are already there. They’ll always be there, certainly. But we shall see if they remain sparked when the familiarity is weakened. View full article

I stand corrected

I suppose I’d just like to know what bolstering this very obviously flawed team would accomplish. It’s clear Correa isn’t going to hit this year, and the odds of Byron playing center are impossibly low. Throw in a catastrophic strikeout problem, and no one or two players were going to make *that* much of a difference. Maybe they could have gotten an extra reliever, but I’m not going to lose sleep over it.

Max Kepler has stung the ball since the All-Star break, and it’s apparent that an altered approach is the key. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Kepler has always been an enigmatic player. He walks a lot, doesn’t strike out much, hits the ball hard… and consistently finishes with a wRC+ somewhere in the 90s. Outside of the Happy Rabbit Fun-Time ball of 2019, there isn’t much offensive success for Kepler to hang his hat on. I’ve argued that his defensive value still makes him a useful player on the Twins, but I get why people would be frustrated with him; a guy that athletic with his batting peripherals should not be so average. That’s why his 2023 looks fascinating. He sucked to start the year. He would probably admit that. But he made an adjustment to his profile this season, and it’s starting to pay off in a big way. Since the All-Star break, Kepler is slashing .299/.346/.581 for a 153 wRC+. That’s a very un-Keplerian batting line. His old approach—wait around, stare at some pitches, spit a few times in the dirt before tepidly hitting a ball somewhere—was swapped with a new, aggressive mindset. He’s swinging like mad—over 50%, to be specific. That halfway mark is usually saved for the Bo Bichettes and Eddie Rosarios of the world, players with tremendous bat-to-ball skills who can hit any pitch thrown anywhere near the plate. Again, that hasn’t been Kepler’s game. He’s never been above 50% in a full season since he started his MLB career. But, it’s working. The dividends are especially apparent on the first pitch. While the league has hit for a .399 xwOBA on the first pitch since the All-Star break, Kepler is at an astonishing .898 xwOBA, meaning he’s taking full advantage of unsuspecting pitchers perhaps getting a little lazy with their opening offering. Dating back to 2016, Kepler only owns a .354 xwOBA when the count is 0-0. Here’s him punishing Luis Castillo for placing a changeup higher than he would have liked: Admittedly, much of his production is buoyed by four homers—three of them alone from the Diamondbacks series. He’s not going to carry a .898 xwOBA on the first pitch the full season—no one can—but he’s at a .632 xwOBA overall in that count in 2023, perhaps revealing that this is a legitimate adjustment only now seeing its full riches come to fruition. Six of his 20 homers are off the first pitch. He’ll probably cool off a little once pitchers realize just laying it in there to start the at-bat is only going to cause them trouble. I think this trade-off, though, is a valuable addition for Kepler overall, given that his excellent discipline can help swing the count back in his favor if he starts waving at bad first pitches too often. The gaping hole in his profile used to be what happens to him when he gets a strike or two on the board against him. It’s not all his fault; most hitters stink when behind in the count. Making sure you never reach that count in the first place helps eliminate those 0-1 or 1-2 outs made while trying to protect the plate. Overall, I find this a fascinating example of how to interpret good hitting; I think the analytic dogma of favoring deep counts and walks swayed a bit too far for some hitters as it ignored the downsides of such an approach. Not everyone can be Juan Soto, after all. More pitches usually means more strikes. More strikes means swinging defensively, not aggressively. It’s the same sickness that plagues Daniel Vogelbach, who always seems to hit a little worse than the collective baseball community expects. Ultimately, the end goal of each at-bat is to get a good pitch and hit it. If that pitch is the first one you see, so be it. It may not result in aesthetically great baseball all the time, but that’s the deal a batter makes when having to handle the toughest pitching man can create. And, anyways, it sure seems to be working for Kepler right now. View full article

And a gold star to Laz Diaz for solidifying the inevitability of an electronic strike zone. Woof, that was bad.