Road trip
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Everything posted by Road trip
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Proper lineup spots for Buxton and Correa? Eh, who can tell. Under Rocco the lineup is never the same day to day anyway. The production expectations the next two weeks between Lewis, Wallner, Larnach, Miranda, Santana, Correa, and Buxton are pretty similar anyway. You could even add Jeffers to the list. At this point next week I expect a couple of them to be hitting well, a couple of them to be in slumps, and at least four of them to be playing hurt if they are playing at all. There is no Judge or Witt Jr type of hitter to build a lineup around, but the lineup will have pretty good depth no matter how you arrange it. All have some power. Most strike out more than ideal. None of them is a natural leadoff hitter, and none can run very well other than Buxton (if he were healthy). You could just about throw the names in a hat and draw them out randomly for the batting orders this week and be just as likely to get it right as if you went into a deep statistical analysis. I really don't care where they hit...I just hope they are somewhere in the lineup as much as possible.
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Actually, he is well above average on OBP when you take into account his HPB. His career bb% is over 10% which is above average (MLB approximately 8%). Add in all of his HPB and he has an on base percentage of .364 for his career. That's very good, more than 120 points better than his batting average and well above the MLB average OPB of .330 I don't know if he can sustain the HBP... that may be somewhat a fluke, and frankly even dinosaur bones will break at some point. But if he keeps his bb% above 9% he will continue to get on base plenty.
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Nah, I'll take the playoff spot and roll the dice. Twins could get hot and advance a ways. Maybe it's only a 5% chance or less, but that's still worth more than moving up a couple of spots in the draft order.
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Former Twins, Where are they now? 2024 edition
Road trip replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Old friend Luis Arraez is back to his usual ways, leading the NL in hits and batting average by a comfortable margin. It kind of looks like 3 batting titles in a row is likely. Oh, and he hasn't struck out in a game since August 10... the longest such streak in over 20 years. He's doing this while suffering some of the worst reverse home/road splits I can remember. Most hitters thrive in the comfortable environments of home, but Petco has really suppressed his extra base power and hitting in general this year. At home: .273/.324/.330 - basically replacement level or worse on the road: .365/.390/.450 - elite level Nothing against the Padres, and this year may be a fluke, but if Petco continues to suppress his game this much I'd kind of like to see him move to a team with a ballpark where he can really thrive. -
You had me at his xERA, FIP, and xFIP—which are real stats, not leftover bureaucracies from Roosevelt’s New Deal
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Yes, I agree completely on Buxton and Correa, as they have a long unfortunate track record and I expect them to get hurt, esp Buxton. All the hurt young position players, many with soft tissue injuries, is where I'm wondering about strength training and conditioning. Lee, Miranda, Kirilloff, etc. ERod and Jenkins among others in the minors. Maybe it isn't abnormal and nothing could be done to prevent it, but it *seems* like a new thing. The Twins did fire their head trainer two years ago, but it seems things have not improved yet.
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Nowhere did I say "woe is Twins". Had you bothered to read further you would have seen I was questioning the training methods. And it isn't just the Royals who have had far fewer injuries.
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Every team suffers injuries, yes. Every team. But if you take a look at the current injured list for the Twins, it is much longer than many other playoff contenders. There are currently 12 players on the IL. Add in Willie Castro who is listed day-to-day. This doesn't even include the walking wounded like Lewis and Jeffers, nor the players like Lee and Miranda who have missed significant time to injuries. Compare this to Cleveland, 5 players on the IL. Kansas City, 6 players. Yankees, 5 players. Tigers, 6. Phillies, 6. Padres, 3. Dbacks, 5. There are some other clubs who have full IL lists like the Twins (Hello Baltimore), so Minnesota isn't a complete outlier. But man, the Twins have either been incredibly unlucky, have intentionally signed distressed assets as the article suggests, or.... something is terribly amiss with the training methods being employed. I can understand the flurry of pitching injuries...human arms aren't meant to throw like this. However the number of position players getting hurt for the Twins is frankly stunning and is an extreme deviation from what MLB looked like 20 years ago.
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Lost the clubhouse? Possibly... I have no idea really. Things are not good at the moment. Massive understatement. Of course, with tonight's lineup not yet posted, it is likely that it will have half a dozen players in it who spent large portions of the year with the Saints (Festa for certain, add in Julien, Lee, Wallner, Keirsey, Martin, maybe even Camargo). That's never a recipe for success in September. For all the good or ill that Rocco may do, he can't get in the batter's box with the players. Whether they love him or hate him, they have to perform in the microsecond after the pitch leaves the hand. He can't help them at that point. The greatest leader in the world can't help them in that moment. They have to do it themselves. It's a game of focus and skill, not a game of physically and mentally dominating your opponent like football. I'm not a Rocco fan. His decision to remove Ober on Saturday was one of the worst baseball decisions I have seen, ever. He's made a few other head-scratchers. But in the end, the players have to play. The manager matters, but only so much in baseball.
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I don't disagree. And I think I'll have to take that. If we were to subtract 150 points from Keirsey's AAA OPS of .839 we get an .689 MLB OPS. It doesn't sound all that sexy, but if it comes with good CF defense plus base stealing skills that is way, way better than what Margot (.652, no glove, no wheels) has given the Twins this year. It's in line with Martin's contributions (poor glove, good wheels), and just slightly behind Kepler (good glove, poor wheels). Make it so... cuz what other options are there at this point?
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I guess I disagree with the first sentence I quoted, but agree with the 2nd. AL Central looks like it will have 3 playoff teams this year. That is unprecedented, and likely won't happen often. Cleveland remains in extreme financial cost-cutting mode. Their ability to continually develop new players is impressive, but they may be at their ceiling as they simply refuse to spend, even more so than the Twins. They will remain good, but it is hard to imagine them improving substantially. It's more likely they are slightly worse next year. KC will lose multiple pitchers to free agency. Perez isn't getting any younger. They probably the take a step back...I mean how much better can Bobby Witt Jr really get when he's playing like an MVP now and carrying the offense almost by himself? Their front office is aggressive though so who knows. The Tigers have Skubal and Greene, but not much else, and still have Javier Baez's albatross contract to carry. The White Sox will be better next year, only because they really can't be worse. But to your other point, yes I agree. The Twins offensive philosophy seems to be rooted in a 3 true outcomes era, and that era is passing. They are striking out less this year, but their inability to manufacture a run here and there really hurts them in close games.
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Kepler out, who knows if he'll be back this year. Margot out, who knows if he'll be back this year. Buxton out, who knows if he'll be back this year... See a trend? Believe it or not, ready or not, ERod is quite possibly the next guy to get called up after the next (seemingly inevitable) injury to a position player. It's either that or bring up 3rd catcher Camargo yet again just to watch him rot on the bench. The only other healthy position player on the 40 man is Severino, and the Twins have passed on bringing him up several times already.
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He's the only player on the active roster that for me has "must watch his at bat" during the game. Arraez used to be that. Buxton when he was younger and healthier. Thome when we had him. Kirby. It isn't because you are certain something good is going to happen. It's just because you know you there is a chance you might see something special.
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Twins (Henriquez) vs Rays (Sulser): 9/4/24, 5:50pm
Road trip replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
I was wondering the exact same thing. I mean, our pen is stretched pretty thin already, and now we go with what is essentially a bullpen game? Sure, maybe we can get 5 innings out of Varland... I hope. Apologies if the rationale was explained elsewhere, but I'm not getting it. -
...And this is why resigning Santana, Kepler, a new starter or pricey bullpen help is nearly an impossibility under the current regime's budget. We can wish for a trading partner to relieve the Twins of Paddack's or Vazquez's salary, but I doubt the Twins find one. Maybe someone from the arbitration group above gets traded to save $'s as they all have value and project to earn their raises, but it hurts to trade established players who are entering their most productive years unless you get significant value in return. On paper next year is a "go for it" year. I hope the FO can find a way to fill a couple of holes without breaking their very limited budget. It's a tough task.
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Organizational depth is the most likely outcome for him. Next year I suspect he starts in AAA yet again. We know, beyond any doubt, that the Twins will suffer multiple injuries again next year. That's just the nature of MLB in this era. When that happens it is possible that Helman gets a call next summer. Most likely its just another couple of weeks with the big club... but you never know.
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Buxton was reported to be running at full speed yesterday during pregame warmups. He is in the lineup for St Paul today, so his rehab is starting. If all goes well I suppose he may join the team in KC in a few days. Tiny chance he jumps a plane to Tampa to catch the end of this series, but that seems really unlikely and would probably mean that somebody on the current roster got hurt and needs to be replaced. Ryan was moved to the 60 day IL a couple of weeks ago. He's done for the year, or at least the regular season. So two down, one to go. Correa....a time-line is frankly impossible with a chronic condition like plantar fasciitis. I've fought it off and on for years, and it sucks. There is a chance he will play next week. There is a chance he will never be an effective player again. The most likely outcome is somewhere in between.
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Y'now, you would think an analytically minded team like the Twins would figure this out. Wallner is 5th on the team in WAR, and hit that mark in fewer than 150 at bats. #1 and #2 are injured (Correa and Buxton). #3 is Jax. That leaves a single available position player doing better... and they can't find room in the lineup for Wallner every day? And regularly pinch hit for him? Madness... I really don't care if BABIP rates say he's been lucky. The Twins need ride some luck. It's about time to sacrifice a chicken or something to Jobu so they can wake up everyone else's bats.
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Resetting Expectations for Carlos Correa
Road trip replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sometimes it feels like the franchise is cursed. The beanball ending Puckett's career. Koskie's concussion, followed by Mauer's concussion, followed by Morneau's concussion, all of them career redefining if not quite career ending. Plenty of others I could mention as well.. My dad, a hardened Dakota farmer who had seen his share of crop failures, would frequently say that "it probably won't rain again this year". This dialogue usually started around July 1. It was his way of coping with disappointment, and allowed him to be pleasantly surprised by the too rare July and August rains. At this point I have decided to expect nothing from Correa, ever again. That way if we actually do get something this year or next I will be pleasantly surprised... -
Arguably a mistake for both. Yes, it was in front of Margot but as a runner you are taught to trust your 3rd base coach. I pretty much never defend Margot, but the primary blame goes to Watkins here. Margot can't know for certain that the outfielder didn't bobble the ball, or have something else go wrong as he is supposed to be sprinting at full speed after determining the ball will land, looking ahead at Watkins (who sent him). At this point I fear Watkins pretty much has PTSD from the mistakes of the past two days and should be replaced in-season. Keep him on the staff in some kind of role and pull somebody else from the coaching staff for 3B duties. I really don't know how a replacement could do worse. And as a resident Margot critic... yes, that's an error every time on his CF drop. I really can't imagine that Margot gets signed to anything more than a spring training invite next year...
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Braves (Sale) vs Twins (Festa): 8/28/24, 6:40pm
Road trip replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
If you had told me back on April 1 that this was our end of August lineup I think I would have assumed that the Twins were about 15 games out of first place. A lot of big names missing. I'm not quite certain if I should be depressed or impressed, but somehow they remain in the thick of the race. -
Max is Max. Largely the same player he has been for years, now with a bad knee. He's had a solid career, even if he never became a star. We'll likely miss his defense next year, even if we don't miss his bat. Watkins may be a great coach in many respects....I have no idea, but he doesn't appear to be very good at coaching 3rd. Accurately determining when to hold or send runners is by far the most impactful part of his in-game job, as he rarely has to relay signs to bunt, steal, hit and run, or take a pitch (because the Twins almost never utilize any of these strategies). Thus, his performance can be measured almost entirely by his success rate at holding or sending runners. I don't know if there are stats out there, but I suspect they are not good. He seems to get it wrong a lot. I hope someone else is manning that spot next year...
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Not much question that the pitching staff is running on fumes, kind of like almost every Twins team in August for the past couple of decades. There are some solid performers to be sure, but there aren't enough of them. Hard to say whether the bullpen or the rotation is in bigger trouble at the moment. Today I'd vote bullpen, but the answer could certainly change in a few days. Moving a starter like Festa to help the pen is sort of robbing Peter to pay Paul... I'm not certain it makes the team better. 28 pitchers have been used this year, not counting Wallner and Castro in mop-up appearances. That number seems likely to expand some more, out of shear desperation. I suspect Tonkin won't be the last waiver wire pickup this year.
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Yeah, its just odd. I suppose he thinks he is setting a "lefty trap" for the Braves bullpen. He's just itching to set up the pinch-hitting trifecta of Margot-Vazquez-Farmer to hit for the three young lefties that can, y'know, actually hit. I expect the Braves to boldly fall into this "trap" as soon as feasible just to get Larnach and Wallner out of the game. I'll call it now... they will each get two plate appearances before being removed.
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Kind of a different lineup, but Kepler is back. That Larnach-Wallner-Julien run from 2 to 4 is..."interesting" will be the word I choose. W Castro (S) SS T Larnach (L) LF M Wallner (L) DH E Julien (L) 2B R Lewis (R) 3B M Kepler (L) RF C Santana (S) 1B R Jeffers (R) C A Martin (R) CF
