Road trip

I think the Tigers likely view Paddack as bullpen help for the postseason. They can sleepwalk their way to the AL Central title. I suppose, IF the Tigers win the pennant AND Paddack replicates his 2023 postseason bullpen performance quality WITH a little more quantity (say, 6 appearances)... well, then the Tigers get a pretty good grade on the trade. That IF/AND/WITH combo is pretty tough to pull off though. 10% chance? Probably not even that...

A Christian Vazquez upside ain't no insult. A decade long MLB career, a couple of World Series rings, and he made (checks BREF..) $53 million. I think Jimenez would "settle" for that and never look back... The Twins would take that too, esp for Jimenez's minimum salary years. Hopefully Jimenez progresses up the ranks and we see him in MLB by the end of the decade.

Interesting, as Bader spent most of 2023 and 24 with those two franchises... and he pretty much failed to hit well at either spot. NY fans are not a patient bunch, and Yankee stadium will not be kind to his pull-happy tendencies. Still, he'd be an upgrade for either squad.

It's clickbait, nothing more. And yes, a stain upon the Athletic which normally utilizes pretty strong writers.

The asking price for Jax or Duran just went up a couple more ticks...

Other than being large, left handed subpar corner outfielders both owned by the Twins, Wallner and Larnach are really not the same, or even similar players. Larnach has fairly good contact skills, and will likely always hit for a higher average than Wallner. But that's about his only advantage. Wallner has more speed (relative, not saying he is fast, just that Larnach is a snail by outfielder standards), a far better arm, more power, takes more walks, and at this point has more upside. Both struggle vs LHP, but here again Larnach is worse. Larnach is kind of a known quantity after 1400 PA's. That doesn't mean he can't get better, but it isn't very likely. Wallner has only 800 PA, essentially a full season less. He might get better, or he might not. Defensively, nothing will make Larnach faster or improve his arm. In theory, Wallner can learn to take better routes. I find it a bit odd that some seem to think Larnach is having a decent year. Playing mostly DH, he has an OPS+ of 96. Wallner is at 105. Wallner also has more WAR despite missing a month on the IL. Either can be traded if the return is right. Wallner should bring back more. I find it a little odd that some actually prefer Larnach as a player though.

I blame Buxton for doing the hard rehab work, staying healthy, running like he was still 22 years old, hitting the snot out of the ball, and giving us false hope for three months 😁 As a Twins fan I've seen more bad years than I care to recall. Most of them don't hurt in retrospect, but this one may be remembered for wasting Buxton's career-defining year as a Twin. Without Buxton there is no "2025 Let Down", as we fans would have given up by the end of April.

Check swing calls are very tough. I'm all in on robo-umps, but I won't blame the umps for that one. It's an almost impossible call to get right with any consistency. I'm hard on Balldelli too, but I'd walk Ohtani every time with Ruiz up next. Can't walk Ruiz... Not sure what to think about Jax. Bad luck finds him. His stuff is great, but there are too many night like this one. Far more blown saves than Duran. I know many on this board prefer Jax, but if the Twins are gonna trade one of the stud relievers I know which one I am moving on...

On a well coached team, the player has very little part in the decision to head home or stop at 3rd. The runner can't see the fielder (because turning your head dramatically slows you down), and has to trust the 3rd base coach. The only exception to this should be if the runner stumbles rounding 3rd and then stops on his own. Watkins is probably pretty average. All 3B coaches make some mistakes and we all remember the bad decisions, forgetting the good ones. He seems a bit more conservative than some 3B coaches, but the Twins have quite a few players who are slow, along with guys like Correa and Lewis who are frequently dealing with leg injuries.

If we need to comp him to an ex-Twin, I'd go with a right handed Robbie Grossman or Steve Braun. Limited ability defenders with average speed, marginal HR power, good hit tools and good OBP. They both had a few good years. Braun especially was a useful player at his peak. Hopefully Gonzalez can exceed them.

Sometimes I have those thoughts too. Other times I realize that Falvey wants to be employed next year, and with a team sale likely that would mean working for a new owner. So, do the Twins need to make the playoffs this year for Falvey to impress the new owner and thus keep his job? That might be his mindset. He's loudly broadcast that he believes in the core he has built. Regardless of results this week he may go "all in", trading some prospects for an extra starter or bat, hoping to nab that last wild card spot.

I somewhat don't get the "no power" and "he's slow" takes, but I'll admit I've not watched him. His scouting grade was 45 speed, 50 power. Neither is a strength, but we aren't talking Josh Willingham speed or Ben Revere power either, and they both played some corner outfield for the Twins. In 400 minor league games he's stolen 39 bases and hit 44 home runs. That shows some production. He won't get faster, but his power may improve with age. Every AA player who shows potential is a "maybe". I look forward to seeing if he can continue to develop at AAA, and then hopefully the majors.

Also the DH spot, which has been mostly Larnach. An OPS+ of 97 doesn't cut it there. And while Bader has played superlative defense in LF, his 109 OPS+ is just sort of adequate for LF, and I'm not confident he will maintain that. Other than Buxton, and lately Jeffers, nobody is hitting well enough for the Twins to contend.

Unless you believe in the Twins approximately 5-10% chance to make the post season, selling Coulombe to the highest bidder this month is the lowest of low bars for the FO to clear. Almost every contender would like to upgrade their bullpen, so there won't be any shortage of potential trade partners.

Worth noting again that Gabriel Gonzalez is still dominating AA. Just a year older than Jenkins, but that .982 OPS with more walks than strikeouts is starting to indicate "promotion time" before the end of the year. I'm sure he still has plenty of things to work on, but it would be kinda nice to see if he could help the Twins at some point in 2026.

It is a trope that the Twins strike out far too much. The three Twins with the lowest strikeout percentages? Lewis, Vazquez, and France. That's arguably the three least productive hitters on the roster right now (at least by stats such as OPS). They all put the ball in play, but don't get on base much.

Ok, fine...apologies to the board for somehow turning this into a Cleveland history discussion. If you wish to continue the conversation I'm happy to introduce you to all of my middle aged in-laws from Cleveland, with whom I already have to talk about glory days of Cleveland baseball far too often. Peace..

Of course there was some turnover. Even the big market franchises have some. But Sean Casey? C'mon, he played 6 total game for them. Most Cleveland fans had never heard of him when he was traded. Sandy Alomar walked when he was 35yo and finished as an effective player. Sexson was a starter for 1 year, never a core player. Yes, they let Albert Belle walk (he had extreme anger management issues you will recall). Both the org and his teammates were quite ready to be done with him... Absolutely correct about hitting on multiple high quality players at the same time and the power of their offense. Thome, Manny, Vizquel, Lofton, and Charles Nagy to anchor the starting staff. It's very rare for this to happen. And it was an 9 year run of attendance...never worse than 5th in the league from '94 (the strike year) to 2002 when their core got old and it fell apart. Nothing deceptive about it. Prior to that run of course the attendance was bad... a horrible ballpark until Jacobs Field and decades of losing teams. There was a reason the Major League movie chose Cleveland as the sad sack franchise. And since 2002? They've made the top 5 in AL attendance a single time despite making the playoffs eight times. No surprise that their payroll has collapsed over the past decade. ..which was really my point. We all worry about affording quality players, but if you follow the model Cleveland has used for a long time you risk turning off fans by trading your younger stars (Duran, Ryan, Jax, etc have all been discussed in various forums here). Turned off fans don't attend games, which turns into a death spiral for the organization's finances unless you are really good at developing new stars (which, unfortunately, the Twins need to improve on). The hard core fans (us) will stay regardless. The casual fans may disappear. Where I do totally agree with the article: The other key? Trusting player development. Tampa and Cleveland make moves knowing their farm can backfill. If the Twins want to join that tier, they’ll need to show the same confidence in their depth. More than retooling via trades, the Twins have to do better emulating Cleveland and Tampa at this.

There's a cost to the Tampa/Cleveland model not stated: fan apathy. As a fan it's hard to watch the roster churn constantly. This is especially true of casual fans. Over the long haul this shows up in attendance, which equals revenue. Now Tampa has some built-in attendance problems to be certain. Bad stadium in a bad location, a team with a short history, and a city full of transplants who have loyalties to other franchises. But Cleveland? Gosh, they were attendance monsters two decades ago. Jacobs Field was packed from the mid 90s to the early 2000s when Cleveland had good teams and a stable roster. They had a long string of drawing 3 million fans a year. Now, even in the good years, Cleveland is near the bottom of the league in attendance. That fan base has really tuned out, and they've rarely cracked 2 million in attendance the past 15 years. So, yes, the Cleveland model might incrementally improve the roster and help sustain a certain level of success, but it also comes at a cost.

Actually, not quite. 2 run HRs on 5/31, 6/20, and 6/26.

The lack of RBI's is indeed becoming mind-boggling, no doubt. The narrative on Wallner has been set I guess, but he has hit some valuable home runs this year. I have too much time (apparently), so I'll list them here: July 12, Wallner homers with the Twins already up big. July 9, Cubs, Wallner homers in the 2nd to put the Twins up 3-0. They won 4-2. July 3, Marlins, Wallner homers to go from behind 4-0 to behind 4-1, which was the final score. I suppose this one isn't worth much if you think a 4-0 lead is insurmountable. Jun26, Mariners, Wallner homers with the Twins already up big. June 20, Brewers, Wallner homers with the game out of reach. June 10, Rangers, Wallner homers with the game out of reach June 7, Toronto, Wallner homers in the 6th to put the Twins up 3-2. They went on to lose by a run. June 5, A's. Wallner homers in a game out of reach. May 31, Mariners, Wallner homers in the 2nd to put the Twins up 3-0. They lost. April 9, KC, Wallner homers in the 8th to put the Twins up 3-0. So...likely 4 clearly valuable homers, and maybe a 5th on July 3rd out of 10 total HRs. I don't know if that is pretty typical or pretty bad. Obviously we'd all prefer he'd save all homers for tie games, but it rarely works that way.

Sure, Wallner would bring something. But if you trade him now you are selling low. If you have concluded Wallner is not part of the long term plan I think you hold him for now, hope he has a better 2nd half, and then sell high(er) in the off season. If you want to sell an outfielder now I think I would move either Bader or Larnach. Bader is likely gone next year anyway, and for a contending team that needs a CF he is an obvious fit for the duration of the season. Larnach, meanwhile, is having a season that is exactly in his expected range of outcomes. He won't be worth more in the off season than what he would be worth today. Larnach likely won't bring back as much as Wallner though, as after 1500 plate appearances everyone kind of knows what he is, so you can't sell any blue sky...

Yeah, I cringed too. Quentin is obviously his own individual and may have a completely different personality, but Delmon is one of my least favorite Twins of recent history. That Garza and Bartlett for Young and Harris trade has to go down as one of the worst Twins trades this century.

Saw a news report that said CC plans to play tomorrow. We shall see...

There's certainly history there of this FO dealing with the Dodgers. The Graterol for Maeda trade worked out fairly well for both sides. I would rather not talk about the Margot trade however...