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Road trip

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Everything posted by Road trip

  1. Road trip
    An interesting transaction history for him, at least. Somehow, back in 2023 Cleveland saw something in Gillespie and made him a rule 5 pick, taking him from Baltimore. After a brief run in MLB, Cleveland managed to pass him through waivers and stash him in AAA for most of 2024, where his stats looked very mediocre. He got released at the end of the year. I gotta be honest... Cleveland seems to be better at creating starting pitchers out of assorted spare parts than any org in MLB. If they gave up on improving/fixing him after one year... well, this looks like the absolute longest of long shots.
  2. Road trip
    If struggling is his current OPS+ of 102, that's a pretty nice floor. We know the ceiling potential is significantly higher. His career OPS+ remains 131. I believe in Twins history that only Killebrew exceeds that mark. Carew and Oliva each hit an OPS+ of exactly 131 for their career. Wallner probably won't maintain a 131 for his career... almost nobody does. Bet he finishes his career a lot higher than this year's 102 though...
  3. Road trip
    Bro, Ortiz is hurt too much bro. He just hits homers and can't defend and will cost us a cool million to keep so releasing him will save some cash. - Twins Daily, 20 years ago. No, Wallner won't become Ortiz. But fortunately or unfortunately, he's by far the best option we've got. There is nobody knocking the door down from AAA.
  4. Road trip
    Sure... but he missed multiple weeks, having played only 39 games. And spent all of April in the leadoff spot. And y'know how many plate appearances he has had with runners in scoring position this year? A grand total of 20 !!! Now he hasn't done well in those 20 pa's, but he hasn't exactly had a lot of opportunity to drive in runs. I don't expect him to turn into an RBI machine... he strikes out too much to do that. But there is a lot of context to his 10 RBI this year.
  5. Road trip
    Perhaps not popular, but I agree, and think it is realistic. Difference makers at catcher are rare in this era. Raleigh, maybe Rutschman, and a couple of older guys in Realmuto and Contreras. Salvy Perez isn't catching as much anymore, and is struggling this year. I've probably forgotten one or two, but there just aren't many, and they aren't available. Good backup catchers who give you something both on offense and defense? Rarer then hen's teeth. As much as we complain about Vazquez he will likely get signed somewhere next year, because he's still probably among the top 50 catchers in MLB...maybe higher. Survive the year with what we have at the catcher spot. We won't get much offense if Jeffers is out any length of time, but there is no fast fix out there. The Twins are a thin organization and have to stay healthy to make the playoffs and advance. Same for all the teams not named Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, and a couple of others. And then go out and draft a catcher, top 5 rounds. The Twins did last year and maybe found a keeper. Supplementing with an international prospect signing or two would also make sense. Much like a long-desired pitching pipeline, this is a problem the Twins need to solve through their farm system if they want a difference-maker, or even a middle of the league catcher who will eventually take over when Jeffers ages or gets too expensive.
  6. Road trip
    For those who still have a longing for Rortvedt, he was DFA'd by Tampa a few weeks ago and is no longer on their 40-man roster. He could likely be acquired at a very low price, but he hits worse than Vazquez. This may sound crazy-optimistic, but Khadim Diaw, 3rd rounder last year, is tearing up High A ball after a very good college career. Might the Twins promote him to AA soon... possibly ready for MLB by 2026? Yeah...I'm probably dreaming, but he looks like he might be at least part of the Twins long term solution for the catching spot. That won't help us for 2025, but this is already starting to feel like a lost year anyway.
  7. Road trip
    As a long time fastpitch softball player who played many (dozens? hundreds?) of extra innings with the Manfred rule (we called it "international rule"), the refusal of MLB teams to bunt in extra innings confounds me. MLB has entered a low batting average era, much like fastpitch softball played at a high level. Home or visitor, you absolutely have to score a run. Multiple runs are better, sure, but failing to score a run in the top of the 10th usually means you are going to lose. Unless we had a truly elite hitter leading off, we almost always bunted in this situation. Most good teams did this, because scoring runs in high caliber Men's fastpitch was pretty hard... probably comparable to scoring off a Josh Hader-type pitcher in MLB. Vazquez is an objectively terrible hitter... full-stop. His odds of doing anything positive by swinging were very low. His odds of getting the runner to 3rd by bunting were decent, plus there was a chance the defense would botch the throw to 1b. A successful bunt would have at least put some extra pressure on the Houston defense (defenders forced to make decisions, infield playing in). Houston very possibly would have intentionally walked Jeffers to set up the double play as well... which could also have led to the multiple runs scenario so many analysts are obsessed with. As Hawk said on the broadcast, you can't win if you don't score.
  8. Road trip
    I mean, I guess in the context of MLB in 2025 they have been fortunate, but they've had plenty of guys miss substantial time. Buxton, Correa, Wallner, Lopez, Lewis... That's their ace starter and arguably their 4 best hitters. Also their three largest salary commitments. Add in two promising rookies (Keaschall and Festa), and an assortment of relievers and minor pieces (Coulombe, Tonkin, Martin, Miranda) and the Twins 40 man is pretty much stretched to its limit.... in June. I guess I should just be happy that Buxton survived getting hit today....I think.
  9. Road trip
    Bride has more innings pitched this year (5), than extra base hits (2). I'm not quite certain if I should laugh or cry... I guess I am just amused. Maybe this is Falvey's sneaky way around the 13 pitcher roster limit? 🤪
  10. Road trip
    I suppose Civale is still better than Dobnak, and has a higher floor than an untested player like Morris, but given that he has a large contract and is going to cost some kind of prospect in a trade it is hard to be very enthused. If 2023 Civale is still in there somewhere he has value, but the past two years he's pitched like a #5 starter. That isn't the type of player a financially stretched organization should invest a lot in when there are internal options that might be nearly as good. If our internal options fail I'd rather trade a real prospect(s) for a pitcher that is a difference maker than invest capital in what looks like a pitcher on the downside of his career.
  11. Road trip
    One good season with Arizona went a long ways for him. Since 2020 he's made an eye-popping $127 million. Gotta be the worst contract in Washington franchise history. Good work if you can get it...
  12. Road trip
    I wouldn't trade any of the guys on the MLB roster unless it's a blockbuster... need them now. Keaschall would be hard to part with, but his value may never be higher than it is today after that hot start he showed a month ago. But EmRod? Yeah, available for the right price. I don't think any of the fringe guys at AAA bring back anything meaningful, but if it sweetens the pot to get the right return of course you make them available. Of the younger guys, Gabriel Gonzalez? Absolutely, I'll trade him for the right price. Same really for any of them except perhaps Jenkins. You've got to open the store if you want to find a buyer... then then they buyer has to offer the right price.
  13. Road trip
    The current umpires are the best humans around to do the job. But they are human... and not very consistent compared to tech solutions. To slightly paraphrase Hanlon's razor: "Don't assume malignant intent when inability is a better explanation". Unfortunately, the limitations of human eye sight mean umpiring balls and strikes will always be done relatively inconsistently if left to humans. This year it's hurting the Twins. I'm ready for robo-umps anytime.
  14. Road trip
    Maybe there was a top prospect with bad stats at AA and AAA (yes, I said bad) who went on to become a good MLB pitcher? Nobody comes to mind, but I'm happy to be corrected. I understand why the Twins are in love with Raya's stuff. He can strike guys out. But since advancing through the system he's also walked hitters at an appalling rate. His stat lines make Jorge Alcala look like a control artist (who knew that was possible?). That won't play at any level, much less MLB.
  15. Road trip
    I'd agree, but the odds of Bader maintaining his 2025 offensive production are very low. He will provide a great glove, but after 2500+ plate appearances we know exactly what he is as a hitter, and it isn't what we've enjoyed thus far. Maybe he will remain lucky all year, but my guess is that his OPS+ will gradually move back to his career average as the season progresses.... and if you are gonna have a left fielder with an OPS+ under 100 you better have damn fine hitters elsewhere... and the Twins don't. But of course someone will get hurt, because Twins, so I imagine Bader will start 4 to 5 games a week for the rest of the year. That's still better than running Margot, Garlick, Gallo, etc out there regularly as we saw earlier this decade.
  16. Road trip
    It's a good story, and likely the longest home run ever hit by a Twin even though calculation methods were pretty primitive by today's standards. Longest home run in all of MLB in the Statcast era is 505 feet by Nomar Mazara in Arlington. Sano's longest: 495 at Fenway Wallner's longest (so far): 463, which is also the longest ever at Target Field.
  17. Road trip
    He's on the injured list since Monday... His skills are nice, but his inability to stay healthy is a real concern.
  18. Road trip
    I'm a bit surprised by all the down votes on Wade. Average but versatile fielder. A little power, patient hitter who sees a lot of pitches and takes a lot of walks. 2.8 WAR in 2023 and 2.4 WAR last year, which is solidly average or a little better. OPS+ of 120 both years. I don't know why he has had a horrific start to 2025 but he's only 31 so it would be a bit surprising if he suddenly fell off the cliff. The Twins have gone dumpster diving for far worse players. He's perhaps not obviously better than anyone on the roster right now, but AAA is thin so if he's willing to sign a minor league contract and wait for the seemingly inevitable injury to occur to someone on the MLB squad I'd take a chance. Mike Ford got released from ST Paul a couple of days ago... coincidence?
  19. Road trip
    3B is troublesome, but I don't know that it demands a trade this month, especially considering the candidates are marginal improvements with a low ceiling (Urias) or crazy expensive (Suarez, 15 million). Keep trotting Lee and Lewis out there. If both of them continue to flounder just stick Castro there most of the time. Castro soon won't be needed at 2b at all (Clemens and Keaschell by July), and I'm perfectly comfortable giving most corner outfield starts to Wallner, Larnach, and Bader. Of course, someone(s) will get hurt and render all of this planning pointless... I am a bit concerned about lack of hitting depth at AAA. ERod is hurt again, and the Twins apparently think McCusker is a mirage and not worthy of a real try out.
  20. Road trip
    Recency bias is a terribly powerful thing. Five months ago many were hoping to shed Paddack's salary for a semi-prospect, or a backup outfielder, or a bag of baseballs.. Two months ago many were hoping Paddack would perform well enough to be dealt to a desperate contender at the trade deadline. Five weeks ago we just hoped Paddack would be able to go longer than 4 innings in a competent start... because his April really wasn't all that encouraging. His ERA at the end of April was 5.60, and he never threw more than 5 innings. Recently... well he's had a great run in May. Longer starts, few runs allowed, and at times he's looked dominant. I didn't expect this. I don't think anyone did. It's been great. I hope it continues. But I don't expect it will... If some semi-desperate exec who needs a starter thinks this is a new Chris Paddack and makes a great offer... well, we best take it. Chris Paddack has a long track record and a significant injury history. He may continue his great run, but I suspect before the end of the year he will revert to being the same Chris Paddack he has been for the past half dozen years, which means a mediocre starter, and quite possibly injured. But I'll certainly be rooting for him... I just won't mind if he's traded for fair or better value.
  21. Road trip
    Back to the original topic... I like it. Sano was actually a FAR more established player when the Twins sent him to Ft Myers. He already had three years of mostly full time play when healthy, with well over a thousand plate appearances of pretty good, sometimes great hitting. It didn't work short term in 2018, but he was quite good the following year. Maybe it felt more like a "special spring training reboot" than a demotion to AAA? Lewis meanwhile still hasn't hit 700 MLB plate appearances, and the last 300 or so haven't been inspiring. Despite a brilliant start Lewis never really reached the "established MLB player" threshold. Sending Lewis to Ft Myers might work, might not, but at this point how could it hurt to try?
  22. Road trip
    I'm with you on the #64, but Jack Morris, Cory Koskie, and Francisco Liriano strongly object to throwing any shade on #47. Yeah, I'm also a uniform number geek...
  23. Road trip
    Paddack is at absolute peak value right now. Nothing in his track record suggests his frankly amazing 5 game streak is sustainable. If something like Paddack plus a prospect such as Raya can bring an impact bat that is controllable beyond this year.... well, go for it.
  24. Road trip
    I wish him the best, and hope for the best, but he's not a "freak" athlete anymore. Some combination of injuries and his body's natural maturing curve have taken that away. He's bulked up, but at the cost of 2 or 3 or 5 steps of speed. His movements have lost their smoothness and gracefulness. None of that is his fault, but his job (and his coaches jobs) now is to adjust to what he can and can't do and figure out how to be successful going forward. As others have mentioned, AAA may be the best place for this to take place, be it three weeks or three months.
  25. Road trip
    I strangely thought, perhaps, that McCusker might get a start on get-away day. Nope. I didn't expect McCusker would play much given Baldelli's past practices, and goodness knows he hasn't shown much in very limited opportunities, but getting only 5 AB over the last dozen days is going to create a layer of rust rarely seen outside an abandoned industrial park.
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