Road trip

This is a game where I appreciate the Twins new-found depth of starting pitching, at least compared to the Tigers. Based on the stats, Montero looks like he really got rushed through the upper minors, likely because the Tigers have no better options. Maybe he has great stuff, but his stats (ERA, SO/W), at AA and AAA were nothing special at all. In two starts this year vs Pit and Philly Montero got lit up pretty good. I would hope the Twins can continue that trend.

Also significantly less awesome (but still good) on the road. At Tiger Stadium he's been pretty much unbeatable. Split W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO9 SO/W Home 6 0 1.000 1.74 8 8 0 0 0 0 51.2 33 12 10 2 12 0 58 3 0 0 203 0.871 10.1 4.83 Away 3 3 .500 2.98 8 8 0 0 0 0 45.1 39 16 15 6 7 0 54 3 0 0 182 1.015 10.7 7.71

Rosario was never boring, I'll give him that. The big moments always seemed to find him, both for good and for ill. His outfield play was both spectacular, and spectacularly bad, sometimes in the same game. He had a few productive years back in the teens...but it was back in the teens. I absolutely wish him well, but elsewhere.

Kind of unrelated... the 1980's called. They built a time machine and travelled to 2024. Their heads exploded when they saw Shortstops had a higher OPS across the league than First Basemen. Strange times. Of course, first we had to explain OPS. 😆

It looks to me like a classic strategy vs tactics question. Tactically, the Twins are likely better off in 2024 season with Kepler playing right field (assuming the player received in return for Kepler isn't more valuable, currently). If your goal is to put the best possible team out in 2024 you keep Kepler. Strategically, the Twins must consistently identify and develop young players and turn them into major leaguers. This must be done every season. Some current "AAA players" must become MLB players, or else this franchise is doomed long term given their somewhat self-imposed payroll limits. Simultaneously older, more expensive players must be shed at an appropriate rate and time, while receiving value back for them rather than just letting them go. Kepler certainly fits into the "expensive older player" category. You can keep him and let him walk for nothing, be marginally better in 2024, and leave the youngsters down in AAA to batter AAA pitching. The cost of doing this is that you are sacrificing the potential return on Kepler, and you aren't gathering much information about the possible MLB value of a variety of AAA players. So, do you want to keep Kepler and bet on 2024? As a fan I want the short-term gratification, but I also have to acknowledge the very real strategic cost of chasing this.

It's probably not too soon anymore. 9 games back of Cleveland, nearly July. It is possible to both try out some youngsters like Lee and/or Wallner with an eye towards next year, AND still stay in the race for the wildcard. Frankly, the Twins really need another left-handed bat right now. Will the FO pursue this route? I'm losing faith.

Nah, can't use Carroll, Twins would have him languishing in AAA and the fan base would've turned on him. Three players, 2024 slash lines, try to pick out Carroll: .207/.309/.367 .201/.270/.384 .211/.305/.313 *Hint* the other two are young Twins who had prior success, although not quite at Carroll's 2023 level. Of course, Arizona is playing the long game and letting Carroll work things out. They know they have limited resources, so young players are their future. Players 1 and 2 above are Julien and Kirilloff, Carroll is player 3, worst OPS of the bunch.

Well, no, you did not say that... sorry to imply that. However Ted said exactly that in the article title. "Three Crucial Minnesota Twins Hitters Trending Up Over the Last Two Weeks"

So if Wallner was 29, with a career MLB OPS+ of 126 he might be released? Yet Margot, who is 29, with a career MLB OPS+ of 91 (and only 81 this year) is somehow "crucial". Tom Kelly, who knew a little baseball, said you had to give a player 1000 at bats to know what you had. Margot has 2700. He won't ever hit enough for a corner outfielder. Ever.

It's a really bad pick, but probably doesn't qualify as an all time bad pick due to the following players who were picked first overall, not just a first-rounder: 2014 - Astros - Brady Aiken 1991 - Yankees - Brien Taylor 1966 - Mets - Steve Chilcott None of these 3 saw MLB time. I could list several other first overall picks that had very short MLB careers. Former Twin Danny Goodwin is worth a mention. Drafted overall #1 out of both high school and college by the Sox and then the Angels, he managed an inglorious -1.7 WAR in a couple hundred games. Being picked #13 overall as Cavoca was intuitively seems like it isn't that big a drop from #1 overall pick, but it actually is. The history of #13 overall picks is littered with guys who never made the majors... roughly a third of them never made it. See https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=13&draft_type=junreg&query_type=overall_pick So, yeah, terrible pick that the Twins would like to do over, but not historically bad. Back in the day they've had several that were worse including: Adam Johnson, #2 overall, 2000 BJ Garbe, #5 overall, 1999 Ryan Mills, #6 overall, 1998 That era was a really disastrous stretch of drafts...

Margot leading off. Castro, our hottest hitter other than Royce, batting 8th today, even though he hits lefties better. Only Rocco could come up with this lineup.

Margot had a nice little stretch the first 10 days of June. Since the start of the Oakland series, he has 2 hits in 22 at bats. No team that aspires to make the playoffs can send Margot out as a regular corner outfielder. For the year he is at -.9 WAR, with an OPS+ of 70. That's totally unacceptable for a left fielder (where, to top it off, his glove rates as terrible this year). And how bad is Margot vs right handed pitching? Worse than Vazquez... .464 OPS compared to Vazquez's .484

Oh, I'm sure he will at some point. You don't hit an OPS+ of 132 as a rookie and then never see the majors again, barring injury. Now that doesn't mean he will ever be starting regularly at 2B for the Twins again. He could get permanently passed by any number of players. However he will get a shot again, somewhere, even if the Twins give up and trade him (which wouldn't be the worst idea in the world... he has substantial value yet and the Twins have a large number of potential future solutions for 2B between Castro, Lee, Martin, and the fast rising Luke Keaschall).

Surely the club knew?!? If not.... well I don't know what to say, but that's a problem. Back injuries can be tricky. Feel fine one day, bad the next. Rinse and repeat. Knowing he's injured at least gives me some explanation for why he stopped hitting.

That's too easy. Unfortunately, after the last few starts I might trade Pablo to get Arraez back. (And I surely do hope I'm not still saying that at the end of the year)

Correa is deserving, but Henderson and Witt Jr are absolutely going to be chosen unless injured. Then it comes down to Correa vs Seager unless you think the AL is gonna take four shortstops. And who knows... Yankee fans will probably stuff the box for Volpe. Added problem: Correa is kinda hated now by every fan outside of Minnesota and Houston, so he won't have a chance if it gets to the fan vote. I'm increasingly on-board for Lewis as what may be the Twins lone rep.

If Larnach was healthy you would have a point, but he's mostly been limited to DH duties all year because of a bad wheel. Maybe he will be healthy soon, but what we are lately getting instead vs RHP (as recently as Sunday) is Margot in LF, Larnach at DH, and either Miranda or or Santana starting the game on the bench.

Dodgers likely won't give anything significant, which is fine. Agree Rojas is the likely starter at short, though he is also past his prime and playing every day may be asking a lot at age 35. Kike is stretched at short and hasn't played there all year, much like Farmer. Dodgers are also playing Gavin Lux at 2nd base almost every day, and he isn't hitting at all. 3B Muncy is on the DL (Gavin Biggio there for now). The loss of Betts just makes their infield situation very thin for the next several weeks.

This, this, a thousand times this. Dodgers need a stop-gap with Betts out a few weeks. Offer them Farmer for a bag of baseballs just to get the salary relief and roster spot. Think the Twins could get by with Castro and Martin to cover 2nd base until either Lee or Julien is deemed ready.

Well, yes, for minor leaguers in general, but for players picked 13th overall the percentage is much much higher. The vast majority made the majors, even if only a few became stars. Here are the 13th overall picks since 2000. 2023 1 FrRnd 13 Cubs Y $4,848,500 Matt Shaw (minors) SS 4Yr University of Maryland (College Park, MD) 2022 1 FrRnd 13 Angels Y $3,500,000 Zach Neto (minors) SS 3.5 154 530 19 .236 .709 4Yr Campbell University (Buies Creek, NC) 2021 1 FrRnd 13 Phillies Y $3,900,000 Andrew Painter (minors) P HS Calvary Christian HS (Fort Lauderdale, FL) 2020 1 FrRnd 13 Giants Y $3,797,500 Patrick Bailey (minors) C 2.7 145 480 12 .250 .693 4Yr North Carolina State University (Raleigh, NC) 2019 1 FrRnd 13 Twins Y $4,050,000 Keoni Cavaco (minors) SS HS Eastlake HS (Chula Vista, CA) 2018 1 FrRnd 13 Marlins Y $4,038,200 Connor Scott (minors) OF HS H. B. Plant HS (Tampa, FL) 2017 1 FrRnd 13 Marlins Y $3,400,000 Trevor Rogers (minors) LHP 3.4 25 43 0 .070 .161 73 14 31 4.31 1.39 0 HS Carlsbad HS (Carlsbad, NM) 2016 1 FrRnd 13 Rays Y $2,597,500 Josh Lowe (minors) 3B 3.5 212 722 24 .265 .761 HS Pope HS (Marietta, GA) 2015 1 FrRnd 13 Rays Y $2,959,600 Garrett Whitley (minors) OF HS Niskayuna HS (Niskayuna, NY) 2014 1 FrRnd 13 Padres Y $2,900,000 Trea Turner (minors) SS 34.9 1038 4205 152 .298 .833 4Yr North Carolina State University (Raleigh, NC) 2013 1 FrRnd 13 Padres Y $2,678,000 Hunter Renfroe (minors) RF 9.9 897 3108 183 .237 .770 4Yr Mississippi State University (Mississippi State, MS) 2012 1 FrRnd 13 White Sox Y $2,475,000 Courtney Hawkins (minors) OF HS Mary Carroll HS (Corpus Christi, TX) 2011 1 FrRnd 13 Mets Y $2,100,000 Brandon Nimmo (minors) OF 22.6 827 2815 95 .267 .821 HS East HS (Cheyenne, WY) 2010 1 FrRnd 13 White Sox Y $1,656,000 Chris Sale (minors) LHP 49.3 14 26 0 .115 .269 356 129 82 3.1 1.04 12 4Yr Florida Gulf Coast University (Fort Myers, FL) 2009 1 FrRnd 13 Athletics Y $2,750,000 Grant Green (minors) SS -1.7 129 330 4 .249 .620 4Yr University of Southern California (Los Angeles, CA) Year Rnd DT FrRnd RdPck Tm Signed Bonus Name Pos WAR G AB HR BA OPS G W L ERA WHIP SV Type Drafted Out of 2008 1 FrRnd 13 Cardinals Y $1,840,000 Brett Wallace (minors) 1B -0.2 494 1284 40 .238 .705 4Yr Arizona State University (Tempe, AZ) 2007 1 FrRnd 13 Indians Y $1,575,000 Beau Mills (minors) 1B 4Yr Lewis-Clark State College (Lewiston, ID) 2006 1 FrRnd 13 Cubs Y $1,475,000 Tyler Colvin (minors) OF 0.9 441 1215 49 .239 .733 4Yr Clemson University (Clemson, SC) 2005 1 FrRnd 13 Orioles Y $1,700,000 Brandon Snyder (minors) C -0.1 122 200 9 .240 .731 HS Westfield HS (Chantilly, VA) 2004 1 FrRnd 13 Expos Y $1,750,000 Bill Bray (minors) LHP 2.3 243 1 0 .000 .000 258 13 12 3.74 1.38 3 4Yr College of William and Mary (Williamsburg, VA) 2003 1 FrRnd 13 Blue Jays Y $1,675,000 Aaron Hill (minors) SS 24.4 1559 5646 162 .266 .740 4Yr Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge, LA) 2002 1 FrRnd 13 Padres Y $1,500,000 Khalil Greene (minors) SS 8.5 736 2567 90 .245 .723 4Yr Clemson University (Clemson, SC) 2001 1 FrRnd 13 Angels Y $2,075,000 Casey Kotchman (minors) 1B 7.5 939 3071 71 .260 .711 HS Seminole HS (Seminole, FL) 2000 The Cavaco pick was unfortunate, but draft mistakes do happen all the time, especially with high school players. At least 2019 wasn't a complete bust of a draft since the Twins did pretty well in later rounds with Wallner, Steer, Varland, and Julien.

"but with the tear that Margot has been on of late, they may just prefer to stay the course with that position. " This made me laugh, cry, and sigh in resignation. Margot is 1 for his last 11. But yeah, the Twins are committed to him...

According to BRef this year he is slugging .489 on the road and .296 at home. Small sample size, but yeah, Petco may be an issue for his power like it is for so many players. 2024 Home or Away Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ Home 38 38 172 159 17 41 6 0 0 9 1 0 9 9 .258 .310 .296 .606 47 10 3 1 0 0 0 .273 63 74 Away 32 31 143 137 24 55 7 1 1 9 2 2 3 9 .402 .420 .489 .909 67 2 2 0 1 0 1 .422 144 164 Last year he was better at home, as most hitters are: Home or Away Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ Home 77 74 318 298 39 112 15 2 6 40 3 0 16 10 .376 .407 .500 .907 149 8 1 1 2 4 1 .373 110 144 Away 70 67 299 276 32 91 15 1 4 29 0 2 19 24 .330 .378 .435 .813 120 10 3 0 1 6 1 .349 89 127 Regardless of where he plays going forward, Arraez isn't going to be a slugger... and that's ok, He's gonna hit and provide value.

Petco is a very tough place to hit, especially for power. This will reduce Arraez's SLG%, and may account for part of the drop he has had compared to the past two years. He's not Carew, who had great speed when he was young, or even Tony Gwynn. Wade Boggs might be a better comp (elite contact hitter, mediocre to poor defender, average speed, limited power), but probably he isn't quite as "elite" as Boggs was (although playing in Fenway helped Boggs a lot!). Despite the limitations, I think Arraez remains a very valuable player in an era where consistently putting the ball in play has become a rare skill. Other than lacking speed, he's an almost ideal leadoff hitter, as he always seems to see a lot of pitches. The Twins have struggled to find the right leadoff hitter ever since he was traded. Unlike speed, arm, and various other skills the "hit tool" usually ages pretty well, so I expect Arraez will have a long and productive career if he can stay healthy.

He needs another chance at MLB at some point this year. Might be June-July, or it may not happen till later. The timing will likely be determined by the play and health of other outfielders on the current MLB roster. The important thing is that it happens at some point. He showed too much potential last year not to give him another chance this year.

I also don't understand why so many are ready to give up on Wallner. Wallner was unquestionably awful for 25 at bats in April... but it was only 25 at bats (the equivalent of roughly 6 games, were he playing full time...and he wasn't). He also took a little while to warm up at AAA, but he is back to hitting there now. Yet despite the awful April and some struggles last September, his career OPS+ at the MLB level is a very solid 126. On the Twins 40 man roster, that career OPS+ is surpassed only by Royce Lewis (yes, better than Correa, Santana, Buxton, etc). If Wallner "can't hit", it is a problem for the entire roster. I'd like to see Wallner get another chance at MLB this year. To write a young player off after 25 really bad at bats in April seems premature.