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Road trip

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Everything posted by Road trip

  1. Road trip
    All correct. I'd add a lack of competitive balance in the league as a significant problem. In the NFL and NBA, every city knows that even if their team is bad this year, they might just turn it around and be a contender in a year or two (See the Pistons this year for the NBA, or the Commanders for the NFL). For MLB franchises, does anyone who follows the Reds, Pirates, Marlins, A's, Rockies, etc really think they have a chance to make a playoff run in the next couple of years? The number of franchises mired in almost hopeless situations due to the league's financial imbalances is leading to substantial fan apathy in many regions.
  2. Road trip
    I guess, maybe, I can kinda buy this argument. The trade is looking less disastrous as time passes now that the shine is off some of those prospects. Steer remains a solid and promising hitter, but his glove is weak no matter where Cincy puts him (a trend with Twins prospects). It's somewhat unlikely that he becomes a difference-maker... probably just a reasonably reliable 2-3 WAR player who brings a little power but not much else. Encarnacion-Strand is starting to look like a total bust, which is a real surprise. He's had no MLB success at all. Looks like Hajjar may never make it past A ball. I don't regret trading the prospects. I do wish the FO had better luck on getting solid and healthy players in return.
  3. Road trip
    It's a pretty bad lineup, not much more to say. The likely best hitters (Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Wallner and Jeffers) are all essentially part-time players due to inevitable injuries (first 3), "won't let him hit lefties", and catchers needing regular days off. Add in the fact that only Buxton, Correa, and Bader are plus defenders and you get a team that is going to lose 85 games unless the pitchers perform very well.
  4. Road trip
    Loved your post, and want to highlight this section. Yes, the Twins have a development problem. They are producing some good pitchers, and I will give credit to the current regime for that. They are producing some hitters (maybe...I hope). I mean, Wallner and Larnach and Jeffers are becoming semi-established if you only look at their bats. Perhaps not stars, but adequate. They need more. But man, fundamentally sound play is apparently not being effectively taught in the minors. The team doesn't run bases well, they don't field well, they make constant mental errors, and even the young players with speed and minimal power apparently never learned to bunt or hit against the shift. We can complain (and I do) about Rocco not getting good fundamental play out of this current 25 man roster, but somehow these skills were never taught in the many years spent in the farm system. You shouldn't have to learn these skills at the major league level... it should be innate knowledge by the time players are at AAA. The coaching issues aren't just a Rocco problem or a MLB problem...it must start much lower in the farm system.
  5. Road trip
    I think Killebrew is getting underrated a bit by many in the overall comparison. While Gaetti was clearly a better fielder, Killebrew is obviously the better hitter, and played a whole lot of 3B if you add the years with the Senators. It's almost like his positional flexibility is being held against him. Looking at WAR for the 4 years he primarily was a 3B 1959: 4.2 1967: 6.5 1969: 6.2 1970: 4.9 Total: 21.8 Add in a few WAR for 1960, 61, 65, and 71 when he played 50ish games of 3B each year... and you will get to a total war in the mid 20s for his games at 3B. Gaetti's total WAR with the Twins in 9 seasons? 27.2, accumulated over far more games. Gaetti was great, no argument. But don't forget what a dominant player Killebrew was, and on those great Twins teams from 1965-70 he was playing 3B a lot..
  6. Road trip
    Looks to me like a team with B- talent playing down to D+ baseball. You can blame a variety of individual players (and I do), but it wasn't hard to project that this team was going to struggle to score runs even if all starters were available and playing. Changes are needed if ownership is interested in salvaging the season. Soon. And they can't fire 25 players.
  7. Road trip
    Any franchise that can re-invent the 2 inning reliever would have a serious competitive advantage. This type of pitcher used to be common... many pitchers would would make 40-50 appearances and throw 100 innings of relief. Heck, guys like Mike Marshall and Bill Campbell used to blow past 100 innings with ease. Even flame throwers like Rich Gossage did it many times. This type of reliever disappeared roughly a generation ago. Modern strategy has changed that. Teams are trading short term progress (win today, or even "win this at-bat") at the cost of long term setbacks (burn out the bullpen by June... or earlier). It's a bad trade.
  8. Road trip
    18 PA's is just statistical noise. He's had a poor start, but so has most of the Twins lineup. Check back on May 10.
  9. Road trip
    Realistically? Yes, if he retires when his current contract expires. This may be more likely than we might think. He's made plenty of money, and his body has to hurt quite a bit. Or if he is incredibly humble about his (likely) declining skills at age 35 and agrees to a very substantial pay cut to play a couple more years.... well then that would be another possible route for him to retire a Twin. Maybe he will age like Torii Hunter, but Torii was a statistical outlier and was rarely injured. Usually speedy centerfielders are pretty much done by age 35, and injuries have take a toll on Buxton more than most of his peers.
  10. Road trip
    ""Most Revamped Swing" Award: Ty France It’s a little more challenging to pick out which guys have made swing overhauls, but someone usually tells you about it. Ty France was that guy this year. Actually, France wasn’t the guy who first brought it up. Twins legend Denny Hocking tweeted out that he had worked with France over the offseason mere hours before the Twins announced his signing." With all due respect to Denny Hocking, I'd much rather he teach Ty France how to improve his glove work. Hocking and his career 69 OPS+ shouldn't get near anybody's swing.
  11. Road trip
    Are there questions, certainly. Will Cleveland inexplicably continue to develop quality starting pitchers? Likely. I'll be watching to see how "Big Christmas" Noel continues to develop. He held his own at age 22. He'll likely never be a high average hitter, but the power is real. If he breaks out Cleveland's offense will suddenly be more dangerous.
  12. Road trip
    This perhaps shows the weakness of using WAR to evaluate pitchers. Look, I agree, Radke was very good, but more in terms of longevity and durability than peak value. He was consistently above league average but rarely elite, as shown by his best ERA+ seasons: 1997: +120 1999: +135 2004: +136 But beyond those three years, it's a whole lot of slightly above average (105-115), although almost never below average. He was very consistent. Radke was a very skilled pitcher who found ways to get batters out. He was an elite innings eater for his era. But he was never a high strikeout guy, never a pitcher that opposing teams feared facing. He had only a single All Star appearance (despite being on all the terrible late 90's Twins teams where the league had to find a Twins rep), and appeared once in the Cy Young voting lists. He isn't remotely close on the Hall of Fame Monitor or Hall of Fame standards developed by Jaffe. That all speaks to where he stood in the league. Compare that to Santana's dominant run of ERA+ 2002: +150 2003: +148 2004: +182 (a mere +50 over Radke's 2004, his best year) 2005: +155 2006: +129 2007 (Mets): +166 Santana was the best pitcher in MLB for that stretch. Radke was never in that discussion, nor should he have been. But I'm fine with retiring both of their numbers... loved watching both of them. I would never choose him over Santana, but Radke is still among the best Twins pitchers of all time.
  13. Road trip
    A lot of things broke right for KC last year. Lugo had a career year. Ragans went from good to great. Whitt went from good to HOF level great. Perez won his bet vs Father Time. If any one of those players fail to repeat their performance the Royals should take a small step back, as the squad talent level is thin outside their top performers. If any two of those players regress, the Royals could take a big step back. Whitt's great, but is he really gonna put up a 9.4 WAR season again? (for context, I believe only Rod Carew in '77 has ever had a season that good for the Twins) Did Lugo suddenly learn to pitch at age 34? Is Perez really ageless? I'm willing to bet that 2 of the 4 regress, and the Royals finish with about 79 wins. I'm far more afraid of Detroit and Cleveland.
  14. Road trip
    Crazy expensive, no, I don't think so either. But with a decent year I would expect him to get a little more than the 2.1 million/year Larnach got, as Miranda has produced a little more WAR, and at least offers the theoretical defensive flexibility to play a sort of adequate 3B. Would the Twins pay 2.5 million for Miranda if he produces another year similar to last year, and goes into spring 2026 as a projected part time player? Possibly. Depends on what else they feel they need to spend on, and how the minor league guys develop.
  15. Road trip
    Hm, yes, that's an interesting and forward-thinking way of looking at it. If Miranda improves and plays fairly well he becomes expensive, and the Twins likely don't want to spend at 1B/DH. You can pretty much pick up a Ty France type of 1B every off season for a relatively low sum. Conversely, if Miranda fails to improve he will spend a lot of time on the bench. He's almost damned either way, at least for this organization, except in the unlikely case where he breaks out and becomes a star. Then the Twins are likely to stomach the arbitration increases (maybe).
  16. Road trip
    Kind of related to DH, but I'll be surprised if Bader doesn't start about 140 games in the outfield. The Twins don't sign free agents to sit them on the bench, and Rocco loves veteran players. Some of Bader's time will be spot starts in CF and RF for Buxton and Wallner, but the majority of it will probably be LF if Buxton stays healthy. That means Larnach DH's against rhp more often than not (which makes Julien redundant as a DH - he likely goes to AAA). I don't love this, but I expect Larnach to DH this year a lot rather than playing LF. Miranda/France (whomever proves to be less inept in the field plays 1b) will get a lot of DH starts as well.
  17. Road trip
    Agree, Santana had a better than expected year. But his OPS+ was only a bit better than 2023 (109 vs 101), and a substantial portion of Santana's value was his glove, which France has no chance to replicate. I guess a possible example of good to bad to good again would be Gary Gaetti, who fell off the cliff at age 30 and was simply a bad hitter (but great glove) for several years. He then somehow became a productive bat again in his later 30's, including a couple of outstanding seasons at age 36 and 39, long after he left the Twins. So, yes, it could happen for France, but I'm hoping, not expecting, and certainly wouldn't bet on it.
  18. Road trip
    It's probably somewhat rare to fall off the cliff for two consecutive years at age 28, but when it does happen I do wonder how often said hitter bounces back to be productive again? My fear is "rarely". I'm struggling to come up with an example of someone who did it. Hopefully France can, because other than a potentially good bat he's well below average in every other area (defense, speed, etc). I would be less concerned if the Twins had a history of cutting bait quickly on these cheap veteran signings when they don't work out.... but the examples of Gallo, Margot, and Farmer do not give me much hope this will happen.
  19. Road trip
    Chicks dig the long ball, as does Byron. He's bulked up a lot since his early 20's, and swings hard. A decade ago I hoped he would be a Tim Raines/Kenny Lofton kind of player. Nope. He isn't going to reach those heights, and it seems being a prototype leadoff hitter with some power was perhaps never what he wanted to do (or was coached to become?). Base stealing... just never became a thing for Buxton, or the Twins organization (arguably the slowest lineup in the league last year). And I'm at peace with it. If he can play good defense, stay healthy, hit .250 with 20-25 HR's, well I'll take that in a heartbeat. He isn't going to be a Hall of Famer, or even close, but he's very valuable when healthy. I'll look to the next generation of Twins players to hopefully bring base stealing back to the squad.
  20. Road trip
    I don't see a problem. Most organizations can only dream of having a Brooks Lee waiting in the wings to play SS if their starter gets hurt. 12 months ago everyone thought Lee was the 2nd coming of Derek Jeter (I'm exaggerating, I know), and feared the Twins would stash him in AAA for too long. Turned out Lee's bat wasn't quite ready, or he was hurt, or both. But that top level prospect is still there, likely healthier, hopefully wiser from the experience he gained last year. If Correa has a long term IL stint just stick Lee at SS. He may or may not hit much this year, but the defense should be more than adequate.
  21. Road trip
    "Injuries are guaranteed and underperformance is more than likely," This is the key phrase, unfortunately. There are a lot of pitchers on the list of expected contributors who have a history of injury (Topa, Paddack, Stewart), and frankly every pitching arm is somewhat of a time bomb waiting to go off. We will see every one of these guys, most of them by June at the latest. I'd expect Alcala first, if he doesn't make the squad immediately, but we are gonna see them all. Of guys not mentioned, I think Cory Lewis may get a couple of MLB starts at some point, unless our starting rotation remains surprisingly healthy and effective. Other non-roster guys like Blewett, Ynoa, and Misiewicz are certainly possibilities if they will accept an initial assignment to AAA. And of course Randy Dobnak someway, somehow, will probably get another chance (although I'm hoping it doesn't come to that, at least with the Twins).
  22. Road trip
    Interesting picture... it must be due to the angle of the shot, but Wallner looks like he is about a foot and a half taller than Bader. 🤔
  23. Road trip
    Julien had the sophomore slump, extreme edition. Some guys bounce back from that, some never do. I'm rooting for him, but... well I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised.
  24. Road trip
    I see France chose (or was assigned) #13. Like Margot. And Gallo. And several other players who had largely forgettable seasons wearing the jersey for the past 30 years. Tempting fate, aren't they? 13 Manuel Margot (2024) Joey Gallo (2023) Trevor Larnach (2022) Travis Blankenhorn (2021) Ehire Adrianza (2019-2020) Jason Kubel (2014) Todd Walker (1996) At least Larnach changed his number as fast as possible...
  25. Road trip
    Agreed. And what makes it extra strange is that trading Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan ranks as one of the best "trade a fading vet for a prospect" moves in Twins history. They couldn't have timed that trade any better, but they've never repeated anything like it since.
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