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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    While I strongly advocate for the importance of an "ace" type pitcher, the Kansas City Royals won the 2016 World Series without one. Edinson Volquez led the pitching staff with a 3.55 ERA and 3.82 FIP. Journeyman Chris Young had a career year, but he was converted to a reliever down the stretch before suddenly being thrust back into a starting role for the playoffs. I think Sonny Gray is good enough to lead the rotation, but if he's only going to be allowed to pitch 4-5 innings, it's not going to matter much anyway.
  2. bean5302
    Still too early to make a call. The season needs to play out to the point the Twins' playoff status and overall record as to over or under .500 is solidified. It'll also be helpful to see how the Twins' farm system looks as the season closes out entirely. The Twins could still win the World Series (as ridiculous as that may seem). If they won the World Series or even made a deep playoff run, all would be forgiven. That aside, saying all the best players on the team are not part of Falvey's regime is not a glowing endorsement of why the current front office should remain...
  3. bean5302
    Drafting very heavy on arms is a fairly sound strategy IMHO. Obtaining bats is much easier than obtaining a frontline starter and the more pitchers you have in the pipeline, the more likely you'll be able to turn them into major trade chips. Tampa Bay drafts very heavy on arms as I recall.
  4. bean5302
    I wonder how Baseball Prospectus calculated lost WAR. If we're talking about just pure player WAR without context, I could see the Twins really suffering. i.e. Correa misses the entire season = -5.0 fWAR. But, if we're talking about net lost WAR i.e. Lewis doesn't get hurt and produces 4.0 fWAR as a shortstop, thus, the Twins lose 1.0 fWAR net. I have a hard time believing the stats because so many of the injured players were replaced by guys who were just as good or nearly as good as expected. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zips-projections-minnesota-twins/ Those are the ZiPS projections for the Twins in 2022. Kirilloff = 0.7 Lewis = -0.3 Larnach = -0.2 Sano = 2.0 Those guys going down did not hurt the Twins as they were all replaced with players who produced more than the injured players were expected to produce, anyway. For the pitching staff, it's more of the same. Paddack hurt a little, but that's about it. Paddack = 1.8 Ober = 1.4 Winder = 0.9 In regard to Buxton, there was no world in which it would have been reasonable to expect him to play more than 100 games. It's just never going to happen. The Twins also understood that which is why he's being paid $15MM instead of far more. Even Buxton understood the concerns when he signed the contract.
  5. bean5302
    That's not fair at all. Not only are you comparing full seasons across different levels, but Petty was a high school player who was viewed as a thrower with questionable secondary pitches. He impressed the hell out of everybody in his brief time last year in the minors demonstrating the secondary offerings were not just for show and he had much better command of his pitches than expected. That is why the Reds wanted him so badly. The concerns were Petty wouldn't hold up and that his secondary stuff wasn't good enough which would push him into the 'pen. If scouts had known how good his secondary pitches were, he'd have been drafted top 10, easy. He's 19 and in high-A and arguably handling it dramatically better than Festa. Last 7 starts for Festa vs. Petty (Petty only has 7 at A+). Festa looked great in Low-A, but there was a major decline in High-A. Petty could suffer the same fate, but he's only been getting better this year. Petty a19 - 4.40 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 9.68 K/9 (25.4%), 2.05 BB/9 (5.4%), 1.11 WHIP, .301 BABIP Festa a22 - 4.02 ERA, 5.14 FIP, 6.89 K/9 (17.6%), 3.45 BB/9 (8.8%), 1.47 WHIP, .326 BABIP If Petty keeps this up, he'll likely find himself starting the season at AA next year, at age 20. It seems like Twins fans are desperate to dismiss how good Petty could be in order to make the Gray trade worthwhile, but right now, it wasn't. Not by a long shot. Gray is not cheap. He's making $12MM per year. Certainly, he's been worth a lot, but the surplus value is way different than than some league minimum or low arbitration salary player. 2 years of 1 WAR above market value vs. 6 years of Petty should he continue on his path will be looked back on as a very bad trade.
  6. bean5302
    Non-player operating costs. Players and the league are close to a 50/50 revenue split. https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/?sh=2cb962033bae has the Twins at a $10MM operating income (profit) last year with a payroll $20MM lower. Attendance is up (full season), but so are expenses. Tough to say, but it wouldn't surprise me if the Twins lost money this year if they miss the playoffs. The bottom line is there isn't a lot of money left in revenue stream for the Twins to further expand the team payroll and break even or earn a profit. The Pohald's are spending "enough" this year, but they're definitely not the ownership group which will run the team long term with an operating loss. Speaking of losses, the Twins ran a net loss of an estimated ($49MM) in 2020. They made $10MM last year and this year they'll be lucky to break even. As a season ticket holder, I was surprised and impressed the Pohlads spent big money on Correa and pushed revenue up this year. Jim Pohlad is on record talking about how the previous year's profits and revenues are the driving force behind the target budget for the coming year and he stepped way outside that comfort zone. Basically, what I'm saying is the ownership group were as aggressive this year as one could honestly hope for them to be. They really made a bit of a leap of faith, especially given the long lockout, low season ticket holder numbers and a bottom AL Central finish in 2021.
  7. bean5302
    Yep. $268MM is total revenue. TV revenues made up about $42MM of that. Operating costs are generally about 50% of all revenue which puts maximum MLB team payroll at $134MM before the team would potentially start losing money. The Twins are at $145MM of MLB team payroll this year.
  8. bean5302
    Rod Carew was much better than almost every single player in MLB history. He has the 62nd highest bWAR total in MLB history with only 2 of the 1,200 active players today having a higher career bWAR. Mike Trout and Albert Pujols. Carew is also ahead of hacks like Pete Rose, Robin Yount, Ozzie Smith, Paul Molitor, Johnny Bench, Reggie Jackson, etc. Using Rod Carew as the baseline is ridiculous, not that the stats even exist to even tell us whether or not you're accurate. Kepler is not an All Star player. He's a solid regular starter. I agree, it's stupid he hasn't learned how to bunt as laying down a decent bunt would be a guaranteed hit for him a lot of the time, but I'd like to not hold Kepler to the bar of Carew.
  9. bean5302
    Lee will finish the year at a universal top 30 prospect. He's already a unanimous top 50. As far as Lee's ceiling, that remains open, but right now, I think Lee could have perennial All Star talent. Maybe who the Twins hoped Austin Martin would become.
  10. bean5302
    Kirilloff was going to be at 1B where Arraez has been the primary and Miranda the backup. Both of whom are better than Kirilloff has been. Garlick's maybe a 1 WAR/year drop off from Kepler. Larnach has been largely replaced with Gordon who has held his own quite well. Sano is negative value and it was fortuitous he wasn't needed on the 26 man roster so Arraez could play 1B and make his first All Star Game. Lewis was never going to be a starter in the infield this year. He wasn't going to supplant Correa. Lewis was going to be what Gordon is. Jeffers is no better than Sanchez. We haven't lost anything there. The real point is Polanco and Buxton are the only players the Twins are really missing right now in the lineup.
  11. bean5302
    His cartilage is gone between bones in his wrist. Grinding down bones to make them shorter does seem like a very extreme treatment for wrist pain, and it was a procedure everybody wanted to avoid. I don't know about the 50/50 for him returning to baseball, but returning to baseball, pain free seems like it's a valid concern in my uneducated opinion. Also, Kirilloff is only 24 and his wrist is already apparently worn out. Even with more space, what can be done about the worn out cartilage? Seems like the kind of issue you'd expect to see in a 35 year old with a fix that could give them a couple more years till the end of their career, not the kind of fix you'd expect to give a player a full career. So for me, I haven't heard anything except the procedure is extreme and something everybody wanted to avoid (last resort).
  12. bean5302
    Where in the world did you get 268MM? That's more than the Dodgers (who gamed the system an angered the rest of MLB owners) get. The Twins have one of the lowest TV revenue contracts in MLB right now. The Twins estimated contract is 12years $480MM or $42MM per season. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue-for-mlb-teams/ The Twins rank 16th in MLB total payroll. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/ The Twins' revenues would definitely increase if they went deep into the playoffs, but considering I'd expect them to be losing money this year based on attendance and increased spending. Arguing top 100 payrolls isn't realistic. The fact the Twins have a guy on the payroll at #7 (#6 for players who haven't been suspended all year) suggests they've been willing to spend like a big market team. NYC, LA, LA, NYC, NYC, LA, MN, DC, StL, NYC. Those are the top 10 player salary team locations. Minnesota and St. Louis are outliers...
  13. bean5302
    Laweryson's ERA is definitely on cheat mode level and his FIP looks great too, but the xFIP suggests regression is in order. 0.82 ERA. 2.41 FIP, 3.92 xFIP. It should be noted the xFIP is probably inflated as according to the questionable batted ball data, over 1/2 the fly balls for Laweryson were pop-ups and those are not going to be homers. That said, it seems like Laweryson has gotten better as the season has played out and the walks and number of games where he was averaging 20+ pitches per inning have tapered off a bit. Regardless, this past game was absolutely dominant with tons of swing and miss, and efficient work getting him all the way through 7 innings with just 1 hit and no walks.
  14. bean5302
    Petty actually looks better in his last 4 starts at High A. 18.2 Innings 2.89 ERA, 2.63 FIP, 10.61 K/9 (28.6%), 0.96 BB/9 (2.6%)
  15. bean5302
    I have no blame for the Pohlad family this year. They're on target for a $145MM payroll in 2022, smashing their previous record payroll and sitting right in the middle of MLB where they should be. As far as wanting owners to be more involved, that's generally a terrible idea. When business owners decide they know more about how to run a baseball team than experts in the baseball field, bad things happen. The Angels and Art Moreno are a perfect example. This season falls squarely on Derek Falvey. He asked the Pohlads to open up the wallet after massive losses in 2020 and a maybe break even 2021 and the Pohlads did it. Falvey and Levine saw a team and fanbase stunned by Wes Johnson's departure mid-season in favor of college baseball and again watched the players fall apart on the field after signing, trading for and extending a plethora of injury prone players. Fans watched as the front office implemented it's hard core TTO starter strategy which has been criticized by players and fans alike, with the quick hook from Baldelli frequently raising eyebrows. Furthermore, the farm system rank has cratered as the best prospects stumbled badly and were traded away. If it weren't for the saving grace which was the gift of Brooks Lee dropping to the Twins in the draft and the subsequent performance, the farm would look much worse. There's still time for the Twins to turn it around, but it's looking pretty bad about now. The question I have is how long is Falvey's leash should the Twins miss the playoffs? The Twins are going to lose money this year if they don't make the postseason, and right now, the team is under .500 and dropping fast. The starter strategy and pitching roster has been a bust.
  16. bean5302
    @Seth Stohs It's because he kept leaving the toilet seat up after being told many, many times it needs to be DOWN on enchilada night, right?
  17. bean5302
    I think this is an interesting exercise, but it ignores all the cause and effect. If Maeda wasn't injured, Paddack wouldn't have been acquired. If Paddack wasn't injured, Mahle wouldn't have been acquired, etc. If Sano and Kirilloff weren't injured, where would Arraez be playing? Lewis wasn't about to supplant Correa so where would he be playing? I guess he'd be taking Nick Gordon's role, but then where would Nick Gordon be since Gordon can't be optioned?
  18. bean5302
    Baldelli has mentioned the TTO deal more than once this year. I do also think the Twins have implemented soft pitch limits (seems around 80) for MiLB prospects to try and protect them from wearing down. I don't think it's a good thing and I don't see it working for the team at all.
  19. bean5302
    Dylan Bundy went 6 consecutive starts without giving up more than 2 earned runs and had 1 bad start in his previous 9 games. He's making $4MM this year. If he's the guy who fans expect to carry the team... In any case, Bundy gave up 4 of his 7 earned in the first inning and the bullpen is not ready to go in inning 1. Baldelli did what he thought he had to, and probably what I would have done and let Bundy go back out there for the 5th. It was playing with fire, but the bullpen has been taxed recently.
  20. bean5302
    Gotta make it to the post season first, but yeah, I don't know if the general rules apply to this Twins team either. Their futility against the good teams isn't part of a normal dataset.
  21. bean5302
    Wallner does seem to be quite a bit faster than advertised. His first triple was a fielding error more than a triple, but his triple for the cycle on 9/1 was legit. Haven't seen tonight's effort. Also, for a guy who seemed to have a lot of detractors on the site because of a short very cold start to his stint in AAA, he's hitting .247 with an .829 OPS overall at this point. Good thing we went out and got Billy Hamilton so Baldelli could start him in the outfield. In any case, I hope Wallner will have a shot at making the team out of Spring Training next year at this pace. Julien continues to hit in AA. Not sure he has anything to prove at that level anymore. Brooks Lee has really done everything the organization could hope for at this point. I expect he'll spend next year at AA if he keeps up the pace. Balazovic must feel really good after that effort. It's the very first time this year he's gone more than 4.0 innings (seriously), though it certainly seemed like he should have been given the opportunity to throw another inning a couple times, but that could be the Falvey Philosophy to prevent pitchers from accumulating value.
  22. bean5302
    I wish fans would appreciate what Ryan is instead of setting an impossible bar for him to reach as an unreasonable expectation. He's an MLB caliber starting pitcher right now. That's pretty outstanding considering what he's had to do to prove he could hold his own with the tools he has to work with.
  23. bean5302
    I won't call them "idiots" but I think their philosophy/strategy is very poor.
  24. bean5302
    Offf... great article with a painful reality. No team is as bad as the Twins have played against good teams. That's a big problem. Statistically, it's not possible for Minnesota to play like this on talent alone, which means the issue is probably less with the players and more with management and philosophy.
  25. bean5302
    Wanna pay double for your tickets? LOL. Seriously, though. MLB did shorten commercials a couple years ago already. Players still take 2 minutes to shift from batting to fielding. A left fielder would be a good example. If they leave the inning at 3rd base, jog back into the dugout, swap out their helmet and gloves for a fielding card, glove and hat, grab a drink of water and run back out to left field. That takes a couple minutes. If they have to make an emergency bathroom run, a little more. So all you'd see are the broadcasters talking about the game and no action anyway.
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