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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Always nice to make an opposing opener who hasn't been able to throw strikes, and #5 rotation/fringe AAAA guy look like a Cy Young candidate.
  2. bean5302
    Zero active posters is my guess. Don't need an account to read most material, and I'm not sure front office employees would risk their jobs if they posted something which didn't sit well with their management.
  3. bean5302
    Not sure what Duran has done to deserve it? I mean, he does throw hard, not that he's been All-Star level effective in his limited sample size this year. Generally, there are 5-6 relief pitchers per league who make the All Star teams. Taking the list down to relievers with more than 10 innings (Duran's been hurt so he only has 15), here are Duran's ranks of the 136 guys who meet the criteria. Fastball velo = 100.2 #2 ERA = 3.00 #46 FIP = 5.27 #116 xFIP = 3.52 #37 Saves = 10 #9 K/9 = 8.40 #74 Clase, Holmes, Miller, Kimbrel, and half a dozen other relievers have a more deserving case. Honestly, I'm not sure who the Twins will send as their default guy. None of our guys is likely to get voted in. Jeffers is the strongest candidate right now for a vote-in, but he's going to be way behind Salvador Perez, David Fry, Connor Wong, and Adley Rutschman for popularity and/or performance at this point. The Rocco Baldelli Ultra Platoon mode doesn't help our guys accumulate stats which voters look at.
  4. bean5302
    Not sure why you feel they're similar as they have almost nothing in common except they're both left handed, white and tall, LOL
  5. bean5302
    Yep. Jenkins is in "Low A" or just "A" ball since the downsizing of the MiLB system. What does he need to prove in Ft Myers A ball before getting promoted should be the question, and the answer to that is probably that he's far better than the average competition level he's facing. wRC+ 135ish? Something similar to what Luke Keaschall was doing last year. Batting average is important, but more important is the on base percentage and demonstrating game power, meaning he's barreling up balls. Right now, Jenkins is striking out 23% of the time in Ft. Myers vs. pretty low level competition and he's not driving the ball well. Since Jenkins only had 56 plate appearances with the Mighty Mussels last year, he's probably going to get at least another month of every day playing time before he might earn a promotion to the High-A Cedar Rapids Kernels, and it'll be a little later than that if his bat doesn't pick up. I do expect Jenkins will probably be with the Kernels before the end of the year.
  6. bean5302
    You threw a little temper tantrum and now you're complaining about attitude? I don't work for the Twins, and it's not my job to beg you to go to the game.
  7. bean5302
    Consistency in the strike zone is what I care about most, and umpire scorecards doesn't really take that into consideration by quantifying estimated ump zone. If the strike zone was expanded 0.5" or 1.0" into a single shadow zone (in/out/top/bottom), does the ball/strike call suddenly jump to nearly 100%? Consistency in predicting what will be called a ball vs. strike, and egregious misses are what I care about as, historically, what pitchers have complained about most is not knowing what will be called a strike when they hit a certain location, and catchers and pitchers routinely try work a "ball" into a "strike" if they can by hitting the same spot repeatedly. It's been part of the game forever. Most of the whining on this site about balls vs. strikes recently is over 2 or 3 calls a game out of the 300 pitches thrown and the plus or minus run value assumes players have no idea what will be called a ball or strike, which is not usually true. For example, Malachi Moore on 6/1 above. Any hitter who is taking pitches just on the right side of the plate in the image is asking for a called strike because the ump had been calling those "balls" strikes consistently throughout the game. Pitchers and hitters historically adjust for that. Also, the amount of fan engagement on umpiring is huge, and for a sport which desperately needs some fan engagement
  8. bean5302
    How cheap do they need to be? Twins tickets are the same price today (adjusted for inflation) as they were at the Metrodome 20 years ago. Seats from the box office are as cheap as $18. With fees on Stubhub for Monday start at $19 (literally cheaper than movie seats), and the prices will drop a lot a couple hrs before game time. Easy to find them at $10/ea with fees right now. Legends Landing right next to Club Level is $51 for unlimited food/drink from the box office. You can bring your own food into the game. You can bring your own bottled water into the game. Wednesday is $1 hot dog night. Twins Pass, which is good for every single game in a month is $69-79 for a month, any month you want. Street parking close to the stadium is under $10. A bus fare from a free parking area near the stadium is like $6 round trip. The North Star runs to select games this year. What I'm saying is going to a Twins game and eating/drinking is cheaper than going to the movies, and you have no idea what you're talking about.
  9. bean5302
    Ryan Jeffers is just regressing to the mean a bit. His wOBA was like .425 while his xwOBA was like .360. Over his past 20 games, Jeffers is .125/.233/.250 OPS .483 wRC+ 46. Vazquez is .113/.138/.194 OPS .332 wRC+ (9). Yeah. Negative 9. Overall, Jeffers has a wOBA of .355 vs. an xwOBA of .332 this year. Much more in line with who he's been across his career.
  10. bean5302
    Yep. Starting to feel like Vikings fans around here.
  11. bean5302
    Baldelli's macro probably has 100 go-to statements in it, and one of them is pointing to the wrong label. Messes with his results, but the macro doesn't actually hit a run time error so it's assumed to be working.
  12. bean5302
    Even if the Rockies had help for us, their idiot owner would veto any trades in the expectations a 2008 miracle comeback was on it's way, LOL.
  13. bean5302
    At the end of the season, this is ultimately true. 1/3 of the way into it, not so much. The Guardians are being floated by a ridiculous BABIP with RISP, and only a couple of their batters look like they might continue this breakout. Their rotation is poor, and their bullpen is going to get worn down. Right now, the Guardians have been lucky. If they are going to keep their winning ways up, they're going to have to play a lot better overall, not just unsustainably great only when runners are on base.
  14. bean5302
    The Twins are right smack dab in the middle of their competitive window. If they're in the hunt and not buying, the front office is incompetent. Also, Falvey is undoubtedly feeling a lot of heat. His contract runs out this year. Pretty sure he wants to keep his job.
  15. bean5302
    I don't see any evidence he took a discount, and he signed for right in the range he was expected to sign. 3yrs $65MM to 4yrs $90MM was where pretty much everybody expected. Falvey wasn't interested in bringing Gray back, and his comments regarding Gray in particular were pretty cold. Given the contract Gray signed $10MM this year, it's clear he was open to a creative compensation structures. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4957839/2023/10/12/twins-sonny-gray-free-agency/ While Sonny might have been able to eek out a few more bucks someplace, it's clear he wanted to play somewhere that looked like a winner with a good atmosphere, but he stated he wanted to be compensated fairly as well.
  16. bean5302
    I heard he went 1st overall in 2017 and he was everything the scouting reports made him out to be
  17. bean5302
    Said exactly nobody with any kind of job in baseball.
  18. bean5302
    Kirilloff's probably a blind squirrel finding a stash of acorns right now, but here's hoping his issues are mental and this gives him a big confidence boost. Over his past 10 games: .296/.333/.593 OPS .926, wRC+ 156, 6.7% BB, 36.7% K, He's making it work on some big barrels in a very small sample size. Just 17 batted ball events since he's striking out a ton, and one lone line drive over this .400 BABIP sample size.
  19. bean5302
    It's not a drastic drop off, though. Varland had a 3.97 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 3.91 xFIP at AAA St. Paul in 2023. 5.31 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 3.58 xFIP at AAA St. Paul this year. Projections for a 4.00 ERA/FIP pitcher in AAA making the jump to MLB are not good, and Varland was a bad starter last year with the Twins. He had a 5.30 ERA with a 5.49 FIP last year at MLB as a starter. Only his cutter was a plus pitch for him in results in 2023, and even then, I'm pretty sure it was only a plus out of the bullpen. No knock to Varland. Based on his draft position and scouting reports on him, he never should have made it above AA ball so making it to the big show and putting in many appearances and in the playoffs was already a big success. If he's going to continue his MLB career, it seems all but certain it's going to need to come out of the bullpen.
  20. bean5302
    I've seen all I care of Kirilloff and his career 0.0 WAR in 871 plate apperances. I don't think there's anything he can do short of PA wRC+ 120 or higher for at least 200-300 plate appearances while not being totally shielded from lefties to convince me he's going to make it. That said, if Kirilloff doesn't do that, it's probably his last year in a Twins uniform. Wallner has more options, and he was ice cold to start the year. Wallner's going to need at least another 100 PA of raking before I'd suspect the Twins would be willing to close the book on Kirilloff to make space.
  21. bean5302
    Long term back issues are no fun. Hopefully, he finds a way to avoid major flare ups. Glad to see him back at AAA and I hope he excels.
  22. bean5302
    Yes, 1st round draft picks get written off permanently if the have a hiccup in year 1. Back to reality now...
  23. bean5302
    First round is first round. #8 vs. #28 projected. You're arguing top 50 vs. top 100 as a different league. You can deal with reality or re-write the world to suit you ego. Up to you.
  24. bean5302
    If you want to re-write the definition of words to mean something they don't, sure.
  25. bean5302
    Nothing to see here. If there was a good player to call up, Rocco, I want to relive my career through my players, and I would have been a superstar if I rested 3x a week Baldelli wouldn't have used them anyway.
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