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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    It was announced. Sano is done for the year, which also means Sano is done with the Twins and likely he's done being in MLB. The last of the slider, down and away = strike 3 Sano has been seen.
  2. bean5302

    Soto trade fallout

    bean5302 commented on Doc Munson's blog entry in Fantasy GM

    It's hard for me to respect Hosmer as a player or person at this point. He's been nothing but a boat anchor to the Padres since he signed. The least he could have done is taken one for the team, declined his player options and hit free agency next year fairly. I honestly would have loved to see San Diego DFA him on September 1st, just after he became ineligible for the playoffs since they're going to pay for him anyway. I suppose it's just the same as when teams screw over their prospects with service time manipulation, etc. I think I'm just a fair is fair, 8hrs work for 8hrs pay kind of person.
  3. bean5302
    Honestly, these moves feel like they signal a do or die situation for the front office. Hopefully, Mahle is the exceedingly rare starter who can manage to outperform the league HR/FB rate long term, though, honestly, I think the front office's hands were a bit tied after the collapse of top prospects this year. It's hard to imagine the Twins' farm system ranking out of the basement of MLB if a couple of the top guys don't take big steps forward to end the season. The loss of Povich, Steer, Hajjar and Encarnation-Strand hurt, but they weren't going to change the status of the farm to above average. The Twins were going to have a well below average farm system no matter what at this point. These moves just gut what would have been the middle rank depth for good farm systems; however, that pushes an already weak system into the abyss. This is exactly the situation Falvey was hired to prevent. The only thing which should save his job at this point is a deep playoff run.
  4. bean5302
    That's a nice solid bullpen, IMHO. Having two guys both worth closer duty and a couple solid middle relievers goes a long, long ways. Jax adding 2.5mph to his already improved fastball from last year has really let his slider play better and it's seemingly turned Jax into a solid reliever. Jax has exceeded my expectations and I think he may have achieved his ceiling. Really great for him and the Twins. I couldn't be happier for all involved.
  5. bean5302
    ...and it seems like the financial concept of "Net Present Value" gets overlooked a lot. i.e. having a good player with surplus value now provides more investment value than it would in the future. I look at it as we're getting a guy who looks like a great relief pitcher with a ton of surplus value (cheap for WAR) when the Twins have a huge need for that player in a season where the Twins are in a position for a potential playoff run. Even if Cade Povich turns into a good starter, we weren't going to see him for at least 2 more years, when the Twins might be struggling so even if he was a 3.0 WAR pitcher, his contributions to the team might not have moved the needle much in terms of true value to the club.
  6. bean5302
    Lopez owns a .229 BABIP this year, but the launch angle against him is absurd at -0.7*. Makes sense as Lopez has generated a crazy high 60% ground ball rate. Walk rate is a bit high, but the K rate is elite. It's interesting because Lopez doesn't generate a huge number of swinging strikes. It makes sense as he's a sinkerball pitcher. It looks like Lopez has entirely given up on his 4 seamer this year. It'll be interesting to see if his stuff continues to play at the elite level of whether or not MLB hitters will adapt, but for right now, he looks like the real deal.
  7. bean5302
    Takes balls for a fan of the worst team in baseball from 2011-2016 who also finished dead last in the weakest division in baseball last year to make that statement. The Orioles are 2.5 GB from the Twins right now. Oh, and they were in the American League Championship series in 2014, meaning they won a few playoff games in the last decade.
  8. bean5302
    I don't think anybody is asking these questions if Carlos Correa didn't somehow fall into the Twins' laps, and I'm very sure the Twins didn't plan on that happening. It changed the entire season plan right then and there. The Twins were dealt a situation where they were suddenly, maybe, competitive in what promised to be a much tougher division. I think it sent them scrambling to be creative when so much of the free agent market was already wrapped up. Basically, I don't think the Twins were prepared for this scenario.
  9. bean5302
    The good news is the Twins have literally 0 elite healthy prospects so it helps them make decisions on their potential trade targets... offf
  10. bean5302
    It's been largely the same pitching, just with different results. xFIPs have barely moved since June 30th.
  11. bean5302
    Can you link to that rule? It allowed Palacios to be moved off the 40 man without exposing him to waivers. I didn't find the part which also nullified using the option. The COVID protocols are a mess and really should be kicked to the curb.
  12. bean5302
    This is really the worst case scenario for a trade deadline position for the Twins. Somewhere in a gray area in regard to whether or not they're really a playoff contender. There aren't just a couple problems, there are a host of them and no way to reasonably address all of them or even most of them. Quite the mess with tons of injuries.
  13. bean5302
    It's 50/50 in my opinion. There's not really a great reason to DFA him, but the Twins' attitude has definitely shifted on Sano.
  14. bean5302
    Transactions history show him added to the 40 man and optioned to AAA.
  15. bean5302
    After a knee surgery, it's not unusual to have an inflammation flare up on a very heavy frame like Sano's, I wouldn't think. It's a tough spot at the moment as Sano won't be eligible to return until after the deadline and I can't see any team having remote interest in him. We'll have to see who the Twins trade away, if anybody, and what impact that has on the depth. Unfortunately, the Twins got almost no look at Sano at all. I'll be the first to admit that while his actual production was poor, it's enticing how baseballs simply rocket off his bat. I could see the front office being suckered in again by the metrics. I really don't know what to think. There's a 0% chance anybody picks up Sano's option and there's a 0% chance to trade him now that he's on the IL. No team will pick Sano's contract up so he'll absolutely pass through waivers if he's DFA'd. At that point, Sano will almost certainly refuse the assignment as there's just no time to make it back to the roster before 8/31 when his playoff eligibility expires. He's free to negotiate an MLB minimum contract across 29 other teams if he declines the assignment. It's just too risky for him to accept an assignment even though he's played so poorly. What do the Twins gain? A roster spot. What do the Twins lose? The potential Sano's bat could be valuable in September and potentially the playoffs. There's really nothing else at stake here.
  16. bean5302
    Sabato's walk rate was down to 10.2% in July with a corresponding drop off in his K rate to 28.8%. His power is the real deal, but with so much swing and miss in his game and no defensive value, I don't know. It's hard to get back on the bandwagon. Based on his comments and previous walk and strike out numbers, it feels like he's feasting on mistake pitches, and those mistakes get less and less frequent as the levels pick up.
  17. bean5302
    Woods-Richardson gave up 2 hits and 3 walks rather than 4 hits. He had 4 strike outs. That said 5 batters put on base in 2.2 innings 1.87 WHIP isn't a smooth start. Good news Woods-Richardson was apparently able to consistently work out of trouble and make pitches when he needed to, though.
  18. bean5302
    Palacios is no longer a pure glove shortstop. He carried an OPS north of .800 almost every month last year in AA. Also, the fielding reports and stats reflect Palacios as a potentially acceptable shortstop, not a stud there anymore. In any case, I'd like to see him get extended playing time considering he's playing on his 2nd year of MiLB free agency and the Twins burned one of his options this year. It'd sure be nice to find out whether or not Palacios is a serviceable MLB shortstop.
  19. bean5302
    There was a discussion on what's worse. A team which has rebuilds, but is very good in between or a team which is forever mediocre. Kansas City fans can point back to 2 World Series appearances and 1 victory in the past 10 years. Kansas City can point to payrolls which exceed the Twins' maximum (achieved this year). Those recent World Series' hold fans' interest for a while.
  20. bean5302
    That does make sense. If the deals were always lopsided in favor of the team getting prospects or the team getting the elite player, the deals would change. It just about what the teams are risking for the reward. I think it's pretty rare teams acquire an elite player and that player does not help the team at all in the current year. Playoffs don't grow on trees historically in baseball, but the owners seem intent on changing that, but that's a different topic. The risk is next year is totally unknown. Who knows what will happen? That's the case for any team. If you're on the track to the playoffs this year, a single World Series win is worth any player in baseball whether the player's name is Mike Trout or Juan Soto.
  21. bean5302
    Honestly, most of the pitching staff was due for massive regression. Even after being shelled for 10 runs, Ryan still isn't there yet as he lucked out in 4 of 5 of his starts in July. His 3.78 ERA is still way lower than his 4.43 FIP and 4.63 xFIP. As of June 30, ERA vs FIP vs xFIP and what their season xFIPs have done since June 30th. Ryan 3.20 vs. 3.93 vs. 4.65 (xFIP is down 0.02) Gray 2.17 vs. 2.86 vs. 3.31 (xFIP is up 0.48) Archer 3.08 vs. 4.90 vs. 4.99 (xFIP is up 0.09) Bundy 4.71 vs. 4.32 vs. 4.44 (xFIP is down 0.10) Smeltzer 2.86 vs. 4.41 vs. 4.67 (xFIP is up 0.32) Apart from Bundy, every other Twins pitcher had an ERA at least 1.24 pts lower than their xFIP The rotation is pitching very similar to how they were, they're just not getting ridiculously lucky anymore. I don't mind the Twins playing Sano. He's on the roster so they could get a peek at him so I don't see the harm in doing what they intended. A couple more days of game time before DFAing him is fine. Now... if Sano continues to struggle at the plate and he's still on the roster after mid August, now there's a problem.
  22. bean5302
    Polanco's a very good player and it's well recognized here and across the league. This year he's really made a big change in plate discipline and it's paid off with an elite walk rate which I wouldn't have expected, and I think that further elevates his game quite a bit. Defensive metrics continue to be very divided on him and it has a big impact on fWAR vs bWAR. I think the question on Polanco is about how much the Twins gain or lose by having Arraez as the starting 2B and what Polanco could bring to the team in terms of trade value.
  23. bean5302
    The level of butt-hurt in here... It's as if this guy just slapped your mom and tripped your dad (who was using crutches at the time) in front of you before doing one of those douchey back up with the arms spread, head tilted "whatcha gonna do?" faces. The potential of the White Sox is undeniable. They're sleeping monsters right now. If their pitchers figure some stuff out and have a couple bounces go their way, that team could be unstoppable. Cease is an ace this year Kopech has ace potential. Giolito has ace potential. Lynn has ace potential Cueto is having a nice resurgence year Every single one of those guys is arguably potentially better than any pitcher we have. Certainly everybody excluding Cueto. Now, when it comes to the offensive side, they could use a little help, but Moncada appears to finally be waking up and Eloy Jimenez was just activated. Both have more potential than any player not named Buxton on the Twins. The White Sox could easily go on a .700 winning percentage to end the season and the Twins have been under .500 since mid/late May. The White Sox's schedule is more than 1/2 made up of series' against losing teams, most of whom are going to be sellers and will probably further regress. Rockies (.450, bad, sellers) Athletics (.376, terrible, sellers) Royals (.394 terrible, sellers) Rangers (.449 bad) Royals (.394 terrible, sellers) Tigers (.400 terrible) Astros (.650 excellent) Guardians (.510 good) Royals (.394 terrible, sellers) Orioles (.505, wow, I didn't expect that, go Orioles) Diamondbacks (.459, bad, sellers) Royals (.394 terrible, sellers) Twins (.531 good) Mariners (.540 good) Athletics (.376 terrible, sellers) Rockies (.450 bad, sellers) Tigers (.400, terrible) Guardians (.510 good) Tigers (.400, terrible) Twins (.531 good) Padres (.550 very good) Twins (.531 good) I do not like the White Sox, but I recognize how much money has been spent there and just how much talent that team has. The fact they're hovering around .500 this year feels like an act of God.
  24. bean5302
    Martin hurt his elbow diving for a ball on July 7th. It wasn't expected to be long term.
  25. bean5302
    Beckham has a long MLB track record. He's not serviceable away from 3B and has nearly 2000 plate appearances where he's been league average. He's got like a .556 BABIP right now. If his K:BB ratio were reversed, I'd be inclined to agree with you because that would signal a change in Beckham's approach. Instead, it just seems like all the balls he's hitting have eyes. To be honest, there's not much more a guy can do from a stats standpoint to have earned a chance, but at age 32, he had to know he was a long shot. It's just not a good decision organizationally to call him up, and I don't suspect any contender would be interested in a 32 year old scrub level veteran 3B, even if he is cheap.
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