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twins_89

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Everything posted by twins_89

  1. twins_89
    A huge part of Kepler's value is his outfield defense, taking that away by playing him at 1B would be foolish in the extreme.
  2. twins_89
    Coming into the off-season my optimism level was sky high, I truly believed the Twins would make moves that clearly upgraded the team. Now as the calendar turns over into 2020 and Spring training is on the horizon, I look at an off-season where the only additions are limited upside guys on 1-year deals. I fear this is going to be an off-season that will be looked back on with massive regret.
  3. twins_89
    To date, the Twins off-season has replaced Castro, Dyson, Gibson, and Perez with Avila, Clippard, Bailey, and Hill while still having a corner infield hole. It seems that at best we're basically the same as last season with a decent chance of being worse. Coming off a 101 win season and with a huge amount of money to spend this seems like a clear failure for the front office.
  4. twins_89
    With Hill, Pineda, and a soon to be 34 year old Bailey, I'm not overly concerned about the rotation getting too crowded (even if another starter is added through a trade).
  5. twins_89
    Falvey and Levine are the masters of doing the absolute minimum in terms of adding outside talent. They manage to fill holes, but do it in the most uninspiring way possible.
  6. twins_89
    Price has 6.2 fwar over the last 3 seasons which equates to just under $20M/year in value. Expecting more from him over his age 34-36 seasons is not realistic, so to even get to neutral value the Red Sox would have to eat at least $36M (and that's assuming no additional drop off due to age). I'm curious to see if Boston is willing to eat enough salary while getting back no real prospects.
  7. twins_89
    I'd rate the off-season to date a 4 out of 10 (a 5 rating would be the team holding about the same from last season and a 4 is being slightly worse). The really sad part is this is the off-season where the team needed to go for it and try to make the jump to legitimate world series contention level. At the moment it seems unlikely the Twins have much chance in any playoff series.
  8. twins_89
    Another consequence of the utter and complete failure on the free agent market is that it puts the Twins in a very poor bargaining position for trades. Other teams will look at the level of desperation and price their starting pitchers accordingly. I'm now waiting to see rumors of teams vastly inflating their asking price when the Twins call about potentially available starters.
  9. twins_89
    The Twins front office does some things really well, like building the organization and managing the floor with small value based moves. The front office, however, has been an unquestionable failure at raising the ceiling through the acquisition of high end talent from outside the organization. Before the start of free agency, this off-season looked like a pretty clear test of what type of front office the Falvey/Levine regime would be, they had a massive amount of payroll to work with, an extremely clear need, and a number of potential "impact" free agents who could help. The fact the team failed to sign anyone of note from outside the organization makes for a sad narrative and dims the hopes of actually winning a playoff series (something that hasn't happened since 2002).
  10. twins_89
    At the moment Thorpe, Dobnak, and Romero (out of options) seem like they have a decent chance to make the opening day roster. I'm also expecting Kirilloff, Graterol, Rooker, and possibly Alcala to be with the Twins by early to mid Summer. I can see Smeltzer, Stashak, Gordon, Raley, Blankenhorn, Colina, Jax, and Jeffers/Rortved getting called up due to injuries at the major league level. A couple of sleeper candidates to get called up are Moran and Clay due to the Twins lack of left handed relief options. Guys who are clearly on the path to the majors and could force their way up early with big numbers include Lewis, Larnach, and Duran.
  11. twins_89
    The Twins front office continues to do well with the peripheral moves, unfortunately they still haven't found much success at completing bigger transactions that actually move the needle.
  12. twins_89
    If more than one of Dobnak/Graterol/Thorpe/Smeltzer are in the rotation to start the season (when Pineda is still on suspension), the Twins could be in big trouble. If three of those guys are in the opening day rotation (which is where we currently are at), it will be a disaster.
  13. twins_89
    It's tough to negotiate a trade when everybody knows the Twins pretty much have to make a deal. I'll be curious to see if the front office can work out a fair trade, or if we are going to have to significantly overpay due to an extremely poor bargaining position.
  14. twins_89
    So at the moment, the Twins are pretty much the same team as last year except for holes at 1B and two spots in the rotation (which is actually 3 spots in the rotation for the first 40 games). So far this has been one of the most disappointing off-seasons I can remember. I had hopes of the team taking a big step forward, while the reality is looking more and more like it will be a small step backwards.
  15. twins_89
    I'm a bit surprised that Jax didn't get selected in the Rule 5 draft. Overall the Twins did a great job in determining who to add and who to leave off the 40 man roster.
  16. twins_89
    I'll be curious to see if the 26th roster spot causes any noticeable change in terms of guys who get protected. Having an extra spot would seem to make holding onto guys who shouldn't be in the majors a lot easier for teams that aren't trying to compete. I would specifically be looking at high upside younger guys who are clearly a couple of years away (Celestino and Javier are prime Twins examples).
  17. twins_89
    I think the Twins almost have to protect high upside guys like Chalmers, Javier, and Celestino. There are way too many MLB teams who aren't really trying to compete and seem like they would be willing to draft and hold onto high-risk/high-reward players in the hopes of stealing talent that could really be good a couple years down the road.
  18. twins_89
    Gonsalves is the only move I somewhat question, everything else seemed like obvious moves to make. Hopefully the Twins are confident that they have a good plan for Gonsalves 40 man spot.
  19. twins_89
    You use the bottom of the bullpen when there there is a bigger separation in the score or when the top guys are unavailable. In last night's game, the score was within 1 run and the top bullpen arms were all well rested and available. I would much rather use my top bullets to keep a close game close than wait and hope the lesser arms can keep the game close (which they didn't and the top of the bullpen never got used).
  20. twins_89
    Stashak is a rookie with questionable stuff who has pitched a total of 25 major league innings. It seems pretty clear to me he was not the guy you want on the mound in a 1 run playoff game.
  21. twins_89
    Putting Stashak on the mound in a 1 run game was a massive mistake with an outcome that was not hard to predict. Following up Gibson all but guaranteed the loss. Baldelli's post season management resume is not off to a promising start.
  22. twins_89
    On September 7 the Twins had a 6.5 game lead in the AL central with 20 games to go and winning the division seemed like a sure bet. It's amazing that a week later the team is on life support due to injuries and the division lead no longer feels particularly safe.
  23. twins_89
    I think the game gave some strong indications about a few post season questions. First, Thorpe is best utilized as a lefty specialist at this point and pushing beyond that is asking for trouble. Second, Graterol is not ready to contribute in high leverage situations (meaning he's not making the playoff roster).
  24. twins_89
    I think it highly likely the Twins will either sign Odorizzi to an extension or give him a qualifying offer. The qualifying offer could itself be a negotiating tactic to drive down his price as it has done to other players in years past.
  25. twins_89
    As often happens to guys with gimmicky approach it seems the league has figured out Harper. Guys without great stuff can find success for a while if they have an unusual pitch mix, but once opposing scouts find their weaknesses it can go bad in a hurry. I'm afraid the Harper isn't fooling anyone anymore.
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