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twins_89

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Everything posted by twins_89

  1. twins_89
    I am beginning to wonder if picking up guys that other teams made a strategic decision to let go is more than just chance. Is there some market inefficiency that the Twins are trying to exploit?
  2. twins_89
    I wouldn't be surprised to hear the Twins made a competitive offer, unfortunately that type of offer has virtually no chance of getting Kikuchi to sign. The only way that Minnesota would even have had a chance would be if they made an offer substantially higher than any of the west coast teams (which I'm fairly sure wasn't going to happen).
  3. twins_89
    It seems like the position players are pretty much covered, so if the Twins keep a similar payroll to last season there should still be over $40M to spend. I'll be very interested to see if we can make a major upgrade to the pitching staff.
  4. twins_89
    Without his Minnesota ties and history with the team would there even be a debate about bringing Mauer back. How attractive would a 36 year old 1B/DH coming off a season with an OPS in the low .700s actually be if he wasn't named Joe Mauer?
  5. twins_89
    If a deal for a real prospect comes along take it, otherwise keep him. The Twins don't have anybody at AAA or AA that stands out as ready to take over at 2B, so I wouldn't trade him just to add a borderline C level prospect.
  6. twins_89
    If he earns his way back to the majors the Twins should bring him back. If he doesn't, shut him down at the end of the AAA season.
  7. twins_89
    Coming into the season I had largely written off Stewart as a prospect, but he did show improvement in his strikeout rate which was always his most glaring weakness. He's actually got a better SO/BB rate than Romero, Gonsalves, and Littell in the minors this season, so it seems like he's figured something out. I'll be curious to see how his stuff translates to the majors and hope he gets a real opportunity (I'd rather not see another make one start and get demoted scenario like we've seen all season from the Twins).
  8. twins_89
    What will happen first, Belisle's ERA with the Twins goes over 10 or he gets released?
  9. twins_89
    Great write up. Your grades match almost exactly with my own thoughts on the trades. The only one I might have graded differently was the Duke trade (I might have went with a B ), mainly because I never expected to get anything of value back. If the Dodgers offer was the best available, I would have much preferred to keep Brian and see where things stood at the end of the year in terms of a qualifying offer.
  10. twins_89
    I'd pass Forsythe through revocable waivers tomorrow and then give him a month of regular playing time and see if he can regain the production he had in 2015-16 with the Rays. Maybe there is a slim chance he could be traded again in August for a lottery ticket prospect.
  11. twins_89
    Based on the trade return, I really wonder if the Twins overplayed their hand in Dozier trade talks. If the rumored Brewers interest was real I have a hard time believing we couldn't have gotten a better deal from them (before they traded for Moustakas). Milwaukee needed a 2B a lot more than a 3B and they gave up a considerably better package.
  12. twins_89
    Dozier has pretty much played himself out of trade consideration with his terrible post all-star hitting. Combine that with very few (if any) trade destinations remaining and I'm beginning to doubt that he gets moved.
  13. twins_89
    I wonder if this signals that the Logan Morrison experiment is coming to an end.
  14. twins_89
    Neither guy coming back makes the Twins top 30 prospect list and I suspect De Jong gets DFAd at the end of the season (if not before) to make room for players that need rule 5 protection.
  15. twins_89
    Rooker's SO/BB ratio has steadily been improving all season. In May it was 4.1, in June 2.5, and in July 2.1 (his last 10 games it has been 0.9). He's had an OPS over 1.000 for two straight months and really looks like he needs a promotion.
  16. twins_89
    Here's my list of guys who look ready for a promotion. AA->AAA: Rooker, Thorpe, and Jay A+->AA: Barnes and Wells A->A+: Badoo and Ober R->A: Keirsey and Williams
  17. twins_89
    I say give Garver as many starts behind the plate as possible. If he can develop to the point where he is remotely competent he'd be a great building block. His bat seems like it's going to be well above average for a catcher, so we really need to find out if he can stick behind the plate.
  18. twins_89
    Over the last calendar year Gibson has been the 20th best starting pitcher in the majors in terms of fWAR (Berrios is 17th). To even consider trading him should require a huge package coming back and I doubt that an appealing offer is out there. I'd be more than happy to sign him to a 3-year deal this off-season.
  19. twins_89
    Anyone waiting for a sign that the Twins should sell clearly got it today. An inside the park HR by Drew Butera to seal a Royals sweep is the most clear sign I've ever seen.
  20. twins_89
    You are right about the comp pick, there's a decent chance it would end up as as comp B pick. I think Escobar accepting the QO is the third most likely scenario if it's offered. Declining the offer or signing a multi-year deal with the Twins seem more likely to me.
  21. twins_89
    One other point of note is that Dozier hasn't been particularly lucky at the plate. Dozier's BABIP of .251 this year is 23 points lower than his career average and almost 50 points lower than last season. With a career average BABIP, Dozier's slash line would be almost exactly in line with his number pre-All Star break the last 2 seasons.
  22. twins_89
    I'd be very comfortable offering Esobar a qualifying offer. If he accepts the Twins get a valuable guy who can fill in at multiple positions on a one year contract (overpaying for one season doesn't hurt the team much if at all). If he declines Minnesota gets a compensatory draft pick. I wouldn't consider any trade offers that have less value than the potential pick (a fangraphs article I saw valued a pick in the 30-40 range around 2.5 WAR pre-FA) plus the value of having Escobar for the rest of this season (extrapolates to around 0.9 WAR not counting playoffs). Based on fangraphs research, a value of 3.4 WAR should be worth a 50 grade hitter or a 55 grade pitcher (based on fangraphs prospect ratings). As an example, in a deal with the Brewers that would be Tristen Lutz or Corbin Burnes.
  23. twins_89
    I'm hoping to see both Buxton and Sano back with the Twins for the last 50 or so games (back up shortly after the trade deadline). I'm also hoping that the time in the minors gets them both on track so that they can build some momentum going into the off-season.
  24. twins_89
    What I'd like to see for the rest of the season is some extended chances for a number of pitchers at AAA. The Twins need to trade Lynn and give a shot to Romero, Mejia, Gonsalves, Sledgers, and Littell where they get at least get 5-10 starts before being sent back down. Similarly in the bullpen I'd trade Rodney and Duke (and waive Belisle) and give real month long opportunities to May, Busenitz, Curtis, Duffey, Moya, and Bard.
  25. twins_89
    Unless the Twins get a better offer for Dozier than is likely, I suspect the best course would be to keep him. If Dozier has a huge second half like in previous years, he might get back to a point where the qualifying offer makes sense which is probably the best possible outcome at this point. As for the rest of the trade options, I'd keep Odorizzi, Gibson, and Escobar (with the intent of extending a qualifying offer). I'd look to trade Lynn, Rodney, Morrison (more likely to be waived), and Duke.
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