Twins Daily 2018 Top Prospects: #8 Blayne Enlow

I am more than aggressive and hoping for 2020.  Depending on his third pitch, move him up fast.

I hope they challenge him and send to cedar rapids

While still concerning, that dip in velocity his senior year must be the reason he dropped out of the first round (where all bonuses were > $2MM). A plus curve, 94 MPH fastball, projectable frame and good control at 18 years old seems like a recipe for high first rounder. Twins may have gotten very lucky he dropped - and then executed the strategy perfectly to grab him in round 3 with an over-slot bonus.

Yes, to all that. Enlow is definitely one of the more intriguing and exciting young pitchers in the system. Love the potential!

Hoping he stays healthy.  If he does, sky is the limit for this kid.

But looking at the list and who is left, it looks like 10 or 11 of the Twins top 20 prospects have not played above Low A.  

Is that normal?  

Really, really like his potential, what worries me is 8,9,10 are complete crap shots.

and you might say the same all the way though 13?

Probably my favorite player in last year's draft class outside of Lewis

Really, really like his potential, what worries me is 8,9,10 are complete crap shots.

and you might say the same all the way though 13?

By the time a prospect is recognized as having the type of potential that Graterol, Badoo, and Enlow have, the chances of them being eventual contributors increases dramatically, maybe to as much as 40-50%. I don't know about you, but I think I'd label them as better than crap shots. Their odds are now probably better than those of players selected in the second half of the first round.

By the time a prospect is recognized as having the type of potential that Graterol, Badoo, and Enlow have, the chances of them being eventual contributors increases dramatically, maybe to as much as 40-50%. I don't know about you, but I think I'd label them as better than crap shots. Their odds are now probably better than those of players selected in the second half of the first round.

I LOVE the potential in all three, but crap shoot, coin flip it is all about the same. I really hope I am wrong and all three are starters in MN for years, but I am just being realistic.

That's why they're 8-13 probably. And, I'm sure that most team's prospects after 6-8 are crap shoots.

Totally agree, it might be a sign of are young guys in the majors and a few of are other "prospects" failing off that leads to this. But there can be no denying we have a ton of talent in the low minors, now lets hope it returns us something in a trade or they make big impacts at Target Field in a few years.

(and not fizzle off and we get nothing out of them)

I LOVE the potential in all three, but crap shoot, coin flip it is all about the same. I really hope I am wrong and all three are starters in MN for years, but I am just being realistic.

Yep, and I'll take a coin flip every day of the week for any IFA selection, any 3rd-rounder, and for sure, any later round pick like Badoo, Garver, Hildenberger Rogers, et al. 

Yep, and I'll take a coin flip every day of the week for any IFA selection, any 3rd-rounder, and for sure, any later round pick like Badoo, Garver, Hildenberger Rogers, et al. 

No one can argue that. IMO I would turn a few of those coin flips into players that can help us now, before those coin flips come up tails.

I think y'all should watch Enlow in action before you make up your mind.

 

Wow, that is such a simple, clean kinetic chain on Enlow's delivery. See how he brings his throwing hand in tight to the right side of his neck? That's where the energy-efficient final stage comes from. Similar to how Andy Roddick hits a tennis ball 140 mph. It's also where Enlow's tight spin comes from; the same energy can be channeled through the ball or around it. 

He's got a good pro curve right now, and his heater explodes out of his hand. With that delivery, his changeup might be difficult. He's got so much velocity in his hand. 

Also I like the down plane of his delivery. Bert will like that, I bet.

While its true not all high prospects become above average players it is also true that
ALL above average players were once prospects.    If 3 or 4 in your top 20 and one outside of your top 20 end up good and the list cycles every 4 -6 years and each of those players has a 7-10 year career I guess it comes out ok since I am guessing most teams go through quite a few replacement level players to fill out rosters.  I'm just pulling numbers from a cloud here but you get the idea.    

As far as Enlow goes, I knew very little about him before now but his delivery looks pretty good and I love stuff that doesn't just involve velocity.     I also hope he gets on the fast track through the system.     I know HOFers don't come through every day but I often ponder how long it would take Blyleven to get to the majors nowadays.  especially considering pitch counts and innings limits.   

I think you are greatly overstating the odds of those three producing in the big leagues. There have been numerous studies (example: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/) that have shown that even prospects ranked as high as 25-50 nationally have only slightly better than 50-50 odds of above replacement level careers. I like Badoo a ton, but I still think he probably only has a 25% chance at being a big league contributor. Graterol and Enlow are both intriguing, but as super young pitchers their odds are still extremely daunting.

With due respect and appreciation for your knowledge, I think you are greatly overstating the legitimacy of an old study that looks at data from 1994 to 2006. There have been so many transformative improvements in virtually every aspect of the process and at every stage of the process since then. Technology that takes much of the judgment away from the trained eyes of scouts who see prospects a handful of times who are now supported by myriads of eyes studying video. Fitness and health upgrades, perhaps most dramatically affecting IFA prospects, knowledge about biomechanics, kinesiology, psychology, better coaching tools and knowledge. I don't have numbers to support it, but my intuition tells me that players who make the top 120 or so today probably enjoy odds that have improved enough so that the odds for Graterol, Badoo, and Enslow are closer to 50% than 25%, that even despite the much worse odds for pitching prospects because of the much higher injury risks.

To that Eastwood movie wasn't any good?

Enlow looks legit.  Solid move; much more difficult to pull off than throwing cash a 32 year olds.

I think you are greatly overstating the odds of those three producing in the big leagues. There have been numerous studies (example: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/) that have shown that even prospects ranked as high as 25-50 nationally have only slightly better than 50-50 odds of above replacement level careers. I like Badoo a ton, but I still think he probably only has a 25% chance at being a big league contributor. Graterol and Enlow are both intriguing, but as super young pitchers their odds are still extremely daunting.

I'd guess, markos, that someone has produced data for  later time periods that would educate me better, but I just glanced at the 2011 draft, a notoriously week class, and BA's 2011 Top 100. From a cursory look, I think about two-thirds of the tp 60 players selected in that draf have made it onto a big league roster. I'd say somewhere round 50-60% of the Top 100 also have logged some MLB innings.

I'm impressed but he almost reminds me of Duffey.  Guy has a fantastic curve but that's about it.