Post Draft: Who is the Twins' Top Prospect?

I'd maybe drop Martin to #5

This is about right.

No way Lee should be lower than 2nd.  I really like what we saw from Lewis this year so I'd also still have him at #1, but Lee could maybe overtake him if he really crushes it in his first taste of pro ball.

I'd have Prielipp a little lower due to reliever risk.  I'll take Steer and SWR ahead of him for now.  I'd put him ahead of Canterino though, who has even greater reliever risk.

To me Lewis and Lee are clearly the top 2. System is pretty weak on higher-end talent after that outside of maybe some lower-level younger guys. Based off Lewis' surprisingly strong performance in AAA and with the big-league club I'd put him #1 yet. Shocked at how well he came back after all that time off better than he was prior and at a higher level of competition. Lee is likely the only other player that will be in top 100 lists unless someone sneaks in at the bottom.  Martin, honestly, I've never liked. Repeating AA and actually going downhill, not a good sign. Looks like a possible utility player, hopefully way off on that. 

25 minutes ago, Dman said:

At 3 I am going with Rodriguez and the good eye at the plate and what appears to be a special bat and he should be solid defensively in a corner if not above average.  Another huge bat in the system.

Prielipp at 4 for me and he could end up higher but I just don't know what to expect post injury.  He could drop if he ends up reliever material so need more info before I would move him higher than this.

If all the stories about Connor are true, he may be #3 as our best pitching prospect in the minors.

Buzz Lightyear ascends to the top.  Woody gets kicked to the corner.

The saviors have been anointed again. Meanwhile, Cavaco and Sabato have taken the spear and are being drained on the cross (not worried about them rising again ?).

Rinse and repeat in 2023.

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

FYI Lewis (59), Winder (69), Rodriguez (85), and Steer (100) made Baseball America's updated top 100.

That was going to be my question has Winder lost his status? If not he is my number 2, Lee 3, Rodriquez 4, then 5 would be Raya or Prielipp. I am more in the camp that the top prospects should be young or at least on the younger side. The Steer, Wallner, Canterino will all be 25 (probably) before they see their first major league action. My reasoning is older guys end up more like Gordon than lets say Arraez or Buxton.

I also like what Steve Hajjar is doing  (minus the innings per start) but 62 K's in 39 innings is impressive and should be moving up the lists fairly quickly.

It's Royce Lewis and it always has been. Seeing so many people put Austin Martin above him preseason was so weird

46 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Winder was 25 when he debuted, for what it's worth.

To me it's splitting hairs with a lot of this stuff when it comes to ranking lists (it's why I'm not a big fan of ranking lists). I prefer groupings/tiers. I'd have my grouping of "Untouchables" that either position players or pitchers can be in. Then I'd break down my pitchers and position players into different groups with many factors instead of listing everyone together in a list. The difference between a pitcher ranked 8th and 12th in a system is basically nothing most of the time. They're likely both middle to back end of the rotation type arms and it's just a question of which one can put it all together. So to me the Twins have 2 guys with All Star upside in the system (Lewis and Lee) and then it's just a jumble of guys with similar likely ceilings.

Arg, I know he is 25 and a old 25 at that (26 in three months), and I know I am being inconsistent, but I thought he should have came up directly from AA last year and IMO has pitched so much better than the rest of the prospects and beside the end of the year doesn't seem been injury prone, so maybe it is by default I moved him up because the rest I have moved down and I didn't feel I could put teenagers and guys that haven't pitched in the minors above him.

I've lost all confidence in Austin Martin at this point in time.  I'd have him below Lewis, Lee, Prielipp, Rodriguez, Steer, Wallner, CES, and Julien for sure; CES and Julien are controversial to some, but they are both younger than Martin (CES by about 8 months, Julien by a few weeks), and performing notably better than Martin at the same level.  CES has a very small sample size at AA, but his A+ numbers this year were so far superior to Martin's that I'm inclined that way.  I'd be open to hearing arguments on SWR, Varland, Raya, and Hajjar as well. 

I just can't call a 23 year old who is not performing in AA (in his second year at AA to boot) a top prospect.  For Martin to regain his prospect status in my eyes, he needs to get massively better, jump up to the MLB level while maintaining his production, or get younger.  I'm not confident in any of those things happening (some more so than others), so I put Martin outside the top 10, and if there is a team at the deadline who still values him as the 5th overall pick in 2020, I trade him in a heartbeat.

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Not to be a complete contrarian, but I wouldn't even have Martin in my top 10. His ceiling looks to be just a slap hitter with some stolen base potential that the Twins would never put to use.

Increasingly, he doesn't even look like a slap hitter, as his plate value derives from his OBP which is being held up by his walks.  For a guy with supposedly the best bat in the 2020 draft, he is conspicuously not particularly good at actually hitting.

Royce Lewis is certainly the #1 prospect, because he's proven it. We've already seen that he can hit big league pitching and is a credible major league shortstop.

But after that, you have to go with the projectability of Brooks Lee. Even though he's coming out of the draft at basically the same level as Austin Martin, he has the advantage of being an unknown, while Martin has the disadvantage of being far better known and disappointing.

After those two, I'm not sure who comes next. The hottest Twins prospects are all in lower levels of the minors right now. There seems to be a gap right now, where there aren't any especially promising prospects after Lewis. Perhaps Prielipp will impress, or Rodriguez will continue hitting as he moves up.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

There's a pretty bold take. I don't know that I'd argue super hard against it. It sort of feels like a Buxton situation to me and the best thing Martin can do for himself is just tune everyone out and build his swing the way he wants. That's all assuming his fall from grace is largely driven by the Twins trying to turn him into a power hitter and the swing/approach changes are driving his inability to hit for average now. I feel like the talent is still there to be a right handed Arraez-lite with speed. If he can be a .300 hitter who steals some bags and plays really nice defense in left I'd be quite happy. But he sure looks lost right now.

I also think they need to put him in left and just let him be. You traded for his bat, not his glove. There was nothing hurt in seeing if he could stick at SS, but that possibility has passed and it's time to let him settle into a spot and focus on his bat. Put him in left and let him focus on getting his bat right.

I tend to agree with this.  I would be ecstatic is two years from now we had Arraez and Martin as .320 AVG/.400 OBP guys batting 9/1 or 1/2 in front of Buxton, Miranda, Kiriloff, Wallner, etc.  I have no idea if the Twins pushing him to hit for power is the issue; if it is, knock it off, and let it develop (as it seems to be doing for Arraez), or not.  In that scenario, the worst case scenario is that Martin is "just" an elite OBP/speed tablesetter.  That's worth 3-4 WAR a year easy.

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Not to be a complete contrarian, but I wouldn't even have Martin in my top 10. His ceiling looks to be just a slap hitter with some stolen base potential that the Twins would never put to use.

Two questions - did the Twins hitting coaches totally mess up Martin by reworking his swing? Also, the injury he has had this year is a thumb injury. Has he had that most of the year and they just recently decided it was enough to hit the IL? Maybe that has affected his #'s. If either of those is true, the Twins can't trade him now as he will get better by next year, at least if it's a thumb injury causing problems.

If Martin i still a top 5 prospect they are not very deep at all. No pitchers at all?