Week in Review: Walking a Tightrope

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/17 through Sun, 6/23
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 43-35)
Run Differential Last Week: +9 (Overall: +25)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (7.5 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 73 | MIN 7, TB 6: Santana Delivers Pinch-Hit Walk-Off Single
Game 74 | TB 3, MIN 2: Lewis Homers, But Error in 10th Proves Costly
Game 75 | TB 7, MIN 6: Twins Fall in Extras Again Despite Miranda Magic
Game 76 | OAK 6, MIN 5: Duran Blows Lead in Another One-Run Loss
Game 77 | MIN 10, OAK 2: Offense Takes Off as Ober Cruises to CG
Game 78 | MIN 3, OAK 0: López Electric, Buck Bashes in Victory

IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY.

NEWS & NOTES

Jay Jackson, we hardly knew ye. Again. The team's decision to recall Jackson and re-add him to the 40-man roster, such a short time after designating him for assignment with a 6.85 ERA, was curious. Barely a week after returning to the fold, the veteran right-hander was DFA'ed once again, allowing five earned runs and three homers in four innings during his latest stint.

There was little reason to expect much different from Jackson this time around, given that his untenable velocity was lower, not higher, during his brief time at Triple-A. Cycling back to him was a strange call by the front office, and a costly one: Jackson coughed up three runs in Thursday's 7-6 loss to Tampa before being sent out.

Brought back to fill Jackson's vacant spot was Kody Funderburk, giving the Twins three lefties in the bullpen, for now. The relief corps is in a bit of a fluid state with Caleb Thielbar and his 7.71 ERA still on the roster, albeit now reserved for the lowest-leverage situations possible. Brock Stewart, who's been on the injured list since the beginning of May, still has no return date in sight.

At the beginning of last week, Alex Kirilloff joined Stewart on the IL following an odd turn of events. The Twins had previously announced they were optioning Kirilloff to Triple-A, but reversed that decision when it was revealed that the struggling 26-year-old was dealing with a back injury, which apparently had not been communicated well. Not a great look. It's unclear what the timeline is for AK to get back on the field, but he'll surely do so in St. Paul when he's ready.

HIGHLIGHTS

Royce Lewis might as well build a home in this section of our weekly recap; it doesn't look like he'll be going anywhere. The third baseman amusingly claimed "slumps aren't a real thing for me" last week while somehow managing to keep on backing up that ridiculous notion. Not only has Lewis avoided lapsing into anything resembling a slump, but he keeps on crushing home runs and tracking toward the best start to a career in franchise history.

After starting both ends of last Sunday's doubleheader, Lewis got the nod in all six of Minnesota's games last week, another highly encouraging sign for his health. He started three times at third and three times at DH, finishing 7-for-25 with three more homers. Lewis received his first intentional walk of the season on Wednesday but it probably won't be his last. 

Carlos Correa cooled down a bit following one of the best weeks in his career, but still managed to produce a pair of three-hit games, doubling and walking twice with just three strikeouts. Willi Castro remains an everyday force in the lineup, wherever he's playing defensively: he went 9-for-24 with five doubles and a big three-run homer. Carlos Santana has quietly been one of the best hitters in baseball this month, and kept on clicking with an 8-for-21 week that included two doubles and a home run.

José Miranda went 7-for-22 with two doubles, as well as a home run that could've been one of the biggest of the season for the Twins: a game-tying three-run shot while down to their last strike on Thursday. Unfortunately, his teammates couldn't get it done in an extra-innings loss. Miranda has the second-best OPS on the team behind Correa this season, and has been nothing short of a godsend for the lineup.

While I wouldn't necessarily call him a godsend, Austin Martin has been a heck of an addition since replacing Kirilloff on the roster. I wondered about his functional redundancy with Manuel Margot, but Martin has proven plenty useful. He found his way into five of six games last week, starting four, and went 6-for-14 with three walks, two steals and four runs scored. 

At a time where every remotely non-essential position player on the Twins roster needs to be continually justifying his spot, with a few hitters loudly making their cases in Triple-A, Martin is among those answering the call, and so is Margot. It's been awesome to see all these bats come alive.

Also worth filing under "awesome to see": Bailey Ober's dazzling performance on Saturday in Oakland. It's been a bumpy ride this year for the big righty, who was hoping to take the next step atop the Twins rotation, but he's been dialed in for his past two turns against Oakland, lowering his ERA from 5.13 to 4.50 on the season.

In his latest start he put together one of the most efficient complete games you'll ever see, working around a pair of solo homers to get through nine innings of two-run ball with 10 strikeouts on just 89 pitches. After setting a season high with 16 swings and misses in his previous start, Ober got 20 whiffs in this one. Granted, both these outings came against a fairly poor A's lineup, but not every Twins pitcher has looked so effective against Oakland. Exciting stuff from Ober. 

On Sunday, Pablo López followed up on Ober's statement start with a big one of his own, putting together one of the most dominant performances of his career against the Athletics. With his fastball touching 97 MPH, López struck out 14 hitters over eight shutout innings, holding Oakland's lineup to one walk and pair of singles. 

López had struggled in his first start of the week, allowing five earned runs in four innings against Tampa, and he came into Sunday with an 8.49 ERA over his past six starts. So suffice to say, this breakthrough was much-needed, and lovely to see.

LOWLIGHTS

Chris Paddack is going off the rails in worrisome fashion, and looks to be in need of a break. He made his second consecutive ugly start against the Athletics on Friday night, once again battling with command and diminished stuff. His fastball velocity dropping down to the 90-91 MPH range, and his command wavering, Paddack got through 4 ⅔ innings. He was lucky to allow only three earned runs on five hits and three walks, after failing to get through three frames in his previous home start against Oakland.

The right-hander's workload management has been a big topic of conversation, coming off his second Tommy John surgery, and that will only ramp up if his performance continues to trend this way, with a 7.79 ERA in four June starts. Louie Varland, who might've been in line to step in for Paddack in the near future, unfortunately experienced a nightmare outing for the Saints on Sunday, allowing 11 earned runs on five homers in 2 ⅓ innings.

Could Varland be rerouted back into a relief role for the second half? It's now worth asking more than ever. His ongoing troubles as a starter seems to call for a change, and the state of the Twins bullpen may also play a role in making the argument. Aside from Griffin Jax, who's been among the league's finest relief arms, it's tough to feel much confidence in Rocco Baldelli's array of options right now. 

Twins relievers not named Jax allowed nine earned runs in 14 ⅓ innings (5.65 ERA), and the bullpen was tagged with losses in all three games where Minnesota came up short. Granted, they weren't given much margin for error, but these were not the highest-quality opponents. 

Jhoan Durán's brutal outing on Friday was most concerning of the bunch: Entering to pitch the eighth, he hit leadoff man Tyler Soderstrom with a pitch, then served up a two-run homer on the first pitch to Shea Langeliers, turning a one-run lead into a deficit in the blink of an eye.

The command and the stuff continue to lag for Durán, whose xERA is up by more than a run from last year (2.60 to 3.65). His strikeout rate is down a full 10 percentage points, from 32.9% in 2023 (96th percentile) to an average-ish 22.8%. He seems to have minimal trust in his fastball – with good reason, as opponents are hitting .320 with a .403 xwOBA against it – and his overall arsenal just doesn't work that well without the big heater setting the tone.

I'm not sure what's to be done about that, if he's indeed healthy, other than keep hoping he can fight his way through these ostensible mechanical issues, perhaps in a relatively lower-leverage role. On that note, it's worth pointing out that Jax, not Durán, got the three-run save opportunity on Sunday. But the Twins don't really have the luxury of using Durán anywhere other than key spots, especially so long as Stewart remains sidelined.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Big hitters are on deck in St. Paul, and they are waiting for their chances to step up to the plate at Target Field. Last week we talked about the ridiculous run that Matt Wallner has been on for the Saints; he launched two more homers last week, although he also struck out 14 times. It's the top prospect Brooks Lee who is now fiercely knocking on the door for a big-league chance, after going 10-for-22 with three doubles, three home runs and 11 RBIs in five games.

Lee has a 1.017 OPS through 14 total games with the Saints, mixing in strong plate discipline and sharp defense around the infield. He made his first start of the season at second base on Thursday, perhaps setting the stage for him to eventually factor in at that position for the Twins.

He needs to wait his turn, with the Twins infield thoroughly fortified at the moment. But it's invigorating to see Lee immediately thriving after a two-month absence, and putting himself in position for a debut as soon as the opportunity arises. His presence provides a comforting safety net behind some of Minnesota's most critical pieces. With Correa, Lewis, Miranda and Castro carrying so much of the load offensively, it's really nice to know there's a guy like Lee on hand who could step into any of their roles in the event of an injury.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins will remain out west as their road trip rolls on with stops in Arizona and Seattle. The D-backs are a fairly mediocre sub-.500 team this year following their charmed World Series run in 2023, but the Mariners will present a real test for these Twins, who have played at nearly a 110-win pace outside of their 0-14 record against the three top teams in the American League (NYY, BAL, CLE). 

Seattle currently leads the AL West with the most wins in the AL outside of those three, so the Twins can buoy the case for their legitimacy with a strong showing against the Mariners, from whom they took two of three at Target Field back in early May.

Thursday's game will be the 81st of the season, marking the official halfway point.

TUESDAY, JUNE 25: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Brandon Pfaadt
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 26: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. RHP Ryne Nelson
THURSDAY, JUNE 27: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – RHP Chris Paddack v. LHP Jordan Montgomery
FRIDAY, JUNE 28: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Logan Gilbert
SATURDAY, JUNE 29: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Bryce Miller
SUNDAY, JUNE 30: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Bryan Woo