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  • Twins Tidbit: Do the Twins Suck at Turning Hits into Actual Runs?


    TwinsData

    Should the offense be scoring more runs? The underlying statistics provide an answer.

    Image courtesy of courtesy of twitter.com/TwinsData

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    The chart above maps OPS and runs scored per game for each major league team. The trend line indicates (roughly) how many runs a team would be expected to score per game given its OPS. A point below the line indicates a team not scoring as many runs as they would be expected to:

    - The Twins have the 8th highest OPS in the majors but only score the 14th most runs per game.
    - Comparing their runs scored to the trend line, the Twins are scoring a fourth of a run per game (or one run every fourth game) less than they ought to.

    Why is this happening? Imagine a team that hits a leadoff double every inning and strands their runner on second every time.  This team would have a 0.750 OPS and score zero runs per game even though a team with a 0.750 OPS would typically score 4.6 runs per game. Does this happen because they struggle with runners in scoring position? Or because they are getting unlucky in spacing out their hits? If those 9 doubles would occur consecutively, they would score 8 runs.

    If the former explanation seems more plausible, that’s bad news for the Twins. If the latter is more plausible, it’s time to buy stock in Twins run scoring (and sell off stock in the Guardians).

    (Um, can we get a wellness check on the Tigers?)


    For more Twins data, follow @TwinsData on Twitter. Duh. 

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    Just now, wsnydes said:

    This is interesting.  Glad to see that my eyes aren't deceiving me though.  It certainly feels like they should be scoring more runs.

    Yes and luck has squat to do with it.

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    33 minutes ago, RpR said:

    Yes and luck has squat to do with it.

    To say that luck has zero part in this is fool hardy.  It's not likely the primary factor, but it's most certainly not zero.  That works in both ways, both positive and negative.

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    Really weird.   I double checked your stats and they are correct.   However, in the American League the Twins are 4th in OPS and 5th in runs scored per game.    The Guardians are the X factor in that they leap over the Twins in runs scored despite the lower OPS.    Is there something unique about the National League in that they only have 4 teams with a better OPS but 9 teams with more runs scored per game?    Really weird.

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    28 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

    Batting Buxton at the top of the order does not maximize the productivity of his at-bats, given the kind of hitter he has become. Too many solo homeruns because the bottom guys aren't on base.

    OBP by order position:
    1st: .336
    2nd: .384 (Luis Arraez is good at what he does)
    3rd: .374
    4th: .335
    5th: .277
    6th: .263
    7th: .289
    8th: .328
    9th: .319

    The 8 and 9 hole hitters are actually doing ok at getting on base. .319 would be good for 10th in baseball in terms of team OBP (tied with Boston and San Diego). .328 is what the Dodgers have as the number 2 team in baseball.

    HRs by order position:
    1st: 16
    2nd: 10
    3rd: 14
    4th: 3
    5th: 8
    6th: 10
    7th: 5
    8th: 6
    9th: 2

    Buxton has 18 HRs, so if he was hitting in the 3 hole all year he'd only be adding 4 homeruns to the total. It'd give a little boost, but certainly nothing drastic. The 3 hole has also had 15 fewer PAs this year than the leadoff spot. 4 hole has 23 fewer. So there really isn't a great deal of improvement that would be gained by dropping him. The 4 hole having the lowest slugging percentage on the team is certainly not ideal, though.

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    The team is not scoring as much as they should. Statistically by OPS. If there is such a thing as regression to the mean it would indicate the Twins will score more runs in the future

    WPA by team the Twins are at 2.04 right now. . That is not an indication of failure or mediocrity. 

    For those who say that the Twins hit too many solo home runs I would say prove it

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    I think the lack of speed may be part of the answer but I think the bigger part is the lack of a true "number 4/number five" hitter. When you look at the Twins lineup most days you either see Max Kepler, Gary Sanchez, Kyle Garlick or Geo Urshela in a run producing spot like number 4 or number 5. These 4 hitters should be batting no higher than 6 in a competitive lineup, and frankly all four of them deserve spots like 7 in the order. I think what we have is four hitters for the top of the order (three against left-handed pitching) in Arraez, Polanco, Buxton, and Correa. Then the other five hitters in the lineup are all guys you should be hitting in the back third, and we're missing those "bridge" hitters between our good hitters and the average to slightly above average hitters. I had hopes for Miranda during his hot streak but I think that was premature.

    To me, this is the reason to make the hard choice of demoting Larnach or Miranda so that Kirilloff can come up. He is the most likely of those three to be that solid, consistent, #5 every day hitter. Unfortunately, that's what we need to score more runs. We simply don't have that guy now and Kepler, Sanchez, Garlick and Urshela will never be that guy.

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    17 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    I think the lack of speed may be part of the answer but I think the bigger part is the lack of a true "number 4/number five" hitter. When you look at the Twins lineup most days you either see Max Kepler, Gary Sanchez, Kyle Garlick or Geo Urshela in a run producing spot like number 4 or number 5. These 4 hitters should be batting no higher than 6 in a competitive lineup, and frankly all four of them deserve spots like 7 in the order. I think what we have is four hitters for the top of the order (three against left-handed pitching) in Arraez, Polanco, Buxton, and Correa. Then the other five hitters in the lineup are all guys you should be hitting in the back third, and we're missing those "bridge" here is between our good hitters and the average to slightly above average hitters. I had hopes for Miranda during his hot streak but I think that was premature.

    To me, this is the reason to make the hard choice of demoting Larnach or Miranda so that Kirilloff can come up. He is the most likely of those three to be that solid, consistent, #5 every day hitter. Unfortunately, that's what we need to score more runs. We simply don't have that guy now and Kepler, Sanchez, Garlick and Urshela will never be that guy.

    This is what I've been saying the last couple years. Kepler and Sano get so much heat because they aren't top 5 hitters, but have been forced to hit in the top 5 spots for years. If they were in the 7-9 holes people wouldn't be so upset. I think a top 5 of Buxton, Arraez, Correa, Polanco, and Kirilloff is a great start. And I think Larnach and Miranda have the potential to fill that 6 hole. Kepler, Celestino, Sanchez, Jeffers, Urshela, Garlick, Gordon types are fine in that bottom 3rd, but they need those last couple bats to become the offense they should be.

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    I do think we could possible get a boost from a slightly different batting order with Kirilloff in it. Against right-handed pitching I would go Arraez, Polanco, Correa, Buxton, Kirilloff, Urshela, Kepler, Sanchez/Jeffers, Celestino/Miranda/Gordon. against left handed starting pitchers I would go Celestino, Polanco, Correa, Buxton, Garlick, Arreaz/Kirilloff, Urshlea, Kepler, Sanchez/Jeffers. You could drop Celestino to the 9 hole and move everybody up one but the key is to have Celestino  hopefully on base for Polanco Correa, Buxton.   

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    23 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    This is what I've been saying the last couple years. Kepler and Sano get so much heat because they aren't top 5 hitters, but have been forced to hit in the top 5 spots for years. If they were in the 7-9 holes people wouldn't be so upset. I think a top 5 of Buxton, Arraez, Correa, Polanco, and Kirilloff is a great start. And I think Larnach and Miranda have the potential to fill that 6 hole. Kepler, Celestino, Sanchez, Jeffers, Urshela, Garlick, Gordon types are fine in that bottom 3rd, but they need those last couple bats to become the offense they should be.

    I couldn't agree more. I think the gap between hits and run-scoring is mostly because we don't have enough good run producers far enough down in the order. I like Kepler's overall game but he is not a consistent run producer as an offensive player. Same for Urshela and Sanchez. Jeffers is even farther down that list. They are very streaky, "hit or miss" guys. We need someone to fill the 5 hole consistently and it would help if that player hit left-handed. I don't know if Kirilloff is that guy but we do know that Max Kepler is not that guy. Kepler would be much better off hitting 7, and the catcher is better hitting 8 or 9 with Urshela in the other one of those two spots.

    The really good news is that the open positions to find that number 5 or 6 hitters are LF and DH. That should be the easiest place to find guys who are consistently solid to good hitters. We just haven't found them yet. Part of the problem is using young guys like Maranda and Larnach who are still maturing. I would like to see them try Kirilloff consistently in that spot for three weeks and see how it goes. Having a consistent run producer in the number 5 hole would go a long way to both scoring more and would relieve pressure on some guys who are being asked to do more than they are really capable of doing. That lack of pressure might lead to and improvement in performance.

    As I'm typing this I just learned that Kiriloff has been called up, unfortunately for Polanco going on the IL for lower back tightness. Still, let's see how he does and maybe when Polanco comes back the corresponding move involves Miranda, Larnach or Gordon, or even a relief pitcher. I hope Kirilloff starts and hits either 5 or 6 tonight, the latter because it's a left-handed starter.

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    21 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    I think the lack of speed may be part of the answer but I think the bigger part is the lack of a true "number 4/number five" hitter. When you look at the Twins lineup most days you either see Max Kepler, Gary Sanchez, Kyle Garlick or Geo Urshela in a run producing spot like number 4 or number 5. These 4 hitters should be batting no higher than 6 in a competitive lineup, and frankly all four of them deserve spots like 7 in the order. I think what we have is four hitters for the top of the order (three against left-handed pitching) in Arraez, Polanco, Buxton, and Correa. Then the other five hitters in the lineup are all guys you should be hitting in the back third, and we're missing those "bridge" hitters between our good hitters and the average to slightly above average hitters. I had hopes for Miranda during his hot streak but I think that was premature.

    To me, this is the reason to make the hard choice of demoting Larnach or Miranda so that Kirilloff can come up. He is the most likely of those three to be that solid, consistent, #5 every day hitter. Unfortunately, that's what we need to score more runs. We simply don't have that guy now and Kepler, Sanchez, Garlick and Urshela will never be that guy.

    So far in his career, Garlick is an answer to left handed pitching and should be in a run-producing spot in the lineup when he has the platoon advantage. Arraez is also a real offensive weapon only when he has the platoon advantage. Of course, LH hitters see right handers much more often than the reverse. 

    I believe in Kirilloff being a middle of the order hitter, when healthy. His stats this year are going to be skewed by the dreadful start he endured, probably while battling considerable wrist pain. 

    Back to the OP, I checked BBRef and there isn't a single Twin with a positive rating in base running, not one! According to my highly unofficial compilation, the Twins are -8 runs in base running, that isn't purely about stealing bases, of course. They don't have much team speed and don't have many skilled base runners. I think that is a factor in their inability to score runs commensurate with their OPS. 

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    18 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    I couldn't agree more. I think the gap between hits and run-scoring is mostly because we don't have enough good run producers far enough down in the order. I like Kepler's overall game but he is not a consistent run producer as an offensive player. Same for Urshela and Sanchez. Jeffers is even farther down that list. They are very streaky, "hit or miss" guys. We need someone to fill the 5 hole consistently and it would help if that player hit left-handed. I don't know if Kirilloff is that guy but we do know that Max Kepler is not that guy. Kepler would be much better off hitting 7, and the catcher is better hitting 8 or 9 with Urshela in the other one of those two spots.

    The really good news is that the open positions to find that number 5 or 6 hitters are LF and DH. That should be the easiest place to find guys who are consistently solid to good hitters. We just haven't found them yet. Part of the problem is using young guys like Maranda and Larnach who are still maturing. I would like to see them try Kirilloff consistently in that spot for three weeks and see how it goes. Having a consistent run producer in the number 5 hole would go a long way to both scoring more and would relieve pressure on some guys who are being asked to do more than they are really capable of doing. That lack of pressure might lead to and improvement in performance.

    As I'm typing this I just learned that Kiriloff has been called up, unfortunately for Polanco going on the IL for lower back tightness. Still, let's see how he does and maybe when Polanco comes back the corresponding move involves Miranda, Larnach or Gordon, or even a relief pitcher. I hope Kirilloff starts and hits either 5 or 6 tonight, the latter because it's a left-handed starter.

    Kirilloff is not starting tonight, fyi. And MLB just announced pitching staffs have to be down to 13 by Monday so that should mean Kirilloff is staying. Let's hope at least!

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    This stat would be more useful with a time scale. I feel like they have picked up on driving in their runs over the pat dozen or so games compared to early in the season. 

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    3 hours ago, wsnydes said:

    To say that luck has zero part in this is fool hardy.  It's not likely the primary factor, but it's most certainly not zero.  That works in both ways, both positive and negative.

    There is no such thing as luck, good and bad fortune, and that is of one's own making by doing, not doing any thing, your actions lead to your fortune whether it be that one bit of effort to make a extremely difficult catch, or swing at a ball because you are believe it will not be called a ball.

    You see, you analyze , you act, or do not act.

    Believing in luck is a fools folly.

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    4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

    OBP by order position:
    1st: .336
    2nd: .384 (Luis Arraez is good at what he does)
    3rd: .374
    4th: .335
    5th: .277
    6th: .263
    7th: .289
    8th: .328
    9th: .319

    The 8 and 9 hole hitters are actually doing ok at getting on base. .319 would be good for 10th in baseball in terms of team OBP (tied with Boston and San Diego). .328 is what the Dodgers have as the number 2 team in baseball.

    HRs by order position:
    1st: 16
    2nd: 10
    3rd: 14
    4th: 3
    5th: 8
    6th: 10
    7th: 5
    8th: 6
    9th: 2

    Buxton has 18 HRs, so if he was hitting in the 3 hole all year he'd only be adding 4 homeruns to the total. It'd give a little boost, but certainly nothing drastic. The 3 hole has also had 15 fewer PAs this year than the leadoff spot. 4 hole has 23 fewer. So there really isn't a great deal of improvement that would be gained by dropping him. The 4 hole having the lowest slugging percentage on the team is certainly not ideal, though.

    Where are you getting Arraez' OBP? His currentt OBP is .438 and leading MLB according to MLB and Baseball Reference, not .384. (Perhaps I am reading this wrong, and you are meaning all who have batted 2nd?)

    Thanks to TwinsData for the post. Stats that back up what is apparent and painfully so.

    The home runs also confirms that Baldelli is not utilizing the "clean up" #4 and power spot of #5 at all.

    Watching Watkins coach third is as painful as watching Diaz. This is a very slow team, or at least it runs the bases like it is. Slow runners take too many chances, and Buxton doesn't run anymore for fear of getting hurt, I guess. We get trampled on the basepaths, and caught stealing about a third (7) of the few times (20) they try, and don't know how to look up the totals against us.

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    1 hour ago, h2oface said:

    Where are you getting Arraez' OBP? His currentt OBP is .438 and leading MLB according to MLB and Baseball Reference, not .384. (Perhaps I am reading this wrong, and you are meaning all who have batted 2nd?)

    Thanks to TwinsData for the post. Stats that back up what is apparent and painfully so.

    The home runs also confirms that Baldelli is not utilizing the "clean up" #4 and power spot of #5 at all.

    Watching Watkins coach third is as painful as watching Diaz. This is a very slow team, or at least it runs the bases like it is. Slow runners take too many chances, and Buxton doesn't run anymore for fear of getting hurt, I guess. We get trampled on the basepaths, and caught stealing about a third (7) of the few times (20) they try, and don't know how to look up the totals against us.

    Those stats are the combined stats of the hitters in those lineup positions for all games. Arraez has spent the majority of his time in the 2 hole so that's why I credited him there.

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    I think:

    -the lineup is top heavy. About 2 hitters short.

    -the team, on the whole, runs the bases poorly. Not just slowly, although that's part, they're not good. They gain few extra bases, lose extra bases, and lose base runners too much IMO.

    - I still believe in RBI. Some hitters find a way to drive in runs. We're lacking in those guys.

     

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    They seem to have issues getting hits with RISP.  Last night they got unlucky for 1 run when Arraez hit the ground rule double, had it stayed in the park that is a run.  It is a combination of stringing hits together, and in what order you get these hits, and with how many outs.  Sometimes a runner does not score from 2nd on a double when there is less than 2 outs because they go back to tag on what might be a catch, then it just hits off the wall and runner gets to third, but the hitter gets to second.  With 2 outs you do not worry about that.  Same thing with like line drives, with 2 outs off at the crack, but with 0 or 1 out you need to make sure going to land. 

    I could also be wrong but feel like we hit into a ton of double plays, which really hurts this as like last night we had bases loaded, then hit into inning ending DP.  I am not too concerned about us scoring runs, but I do agree it could be better. 

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    58 minutes ago, Trov said:

    They seem to have issues getting hits with RISP.  Last night they got unlucky for 1 run when Arraez hit the ground rule double, had it stayed in the park that is a run.  It is a combination of stringing hits together, and in what order you get these hits, and with how many outs.  Sometimes a runner does not score from 2nd on a double when there is less than 2 outs because they go back to tag on what might be a catch, then it just hits off the wall and runner gets to third, but the hitter gets to second.  With 2 outs you do not worry about that.  Same thing with like line drives, with 2 outs off at the crack, but with 0 or 1 out you need to make sure going to land.

    Could someone explain the top of the second inning yesterday?  I didn't watch the game, just saw it unfold via Gameday feed, but Kepler was on first with two out and wound up only on third when Buxton hit a double.  Byron's faster than Max, but Max should be off with contact and I have no idea why the coach wouldn't send him even if Luplow (with an average arm) was poised to make a throw.  Out at home, I can accept, but standing on third?

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    Do the Twins suck at scoring runs ...

    To answer it , yes they suck at scoring runs because they have no killer instinct  clutch hitting  ,,, they don't have the right frame of mind on situational hitting and that is the coaches fault  that isn't instilled in them  ,,, Got to have a killer instinct when you have ducks on the pond   ...

    I like singles and doubles  in situational hitting  , it doesn't have to be swinging for the fences all the time  ....

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    17 minutes ago, ashbury said:

    Could someone explain the top of the second inning yesterday?  I didn't watch the game, just saw it unfold via Gameday feed, but Kepler was on first with two out and wound up only on third when Buxton hit a double.  Byron's faster than Max, but Max should be off with contact and I have no idea why the coach wouldn't send him even if Luplow (with an average arm) was poised to make a throw.  Out at home, I can accept, but standing on third?

    Nope, wrong assumption. There really was no time for Max to score on that. He wouldn’t have been out on a close play, he would have been out by a mile. I don’t remember the specifics, but I think it came off the wall hard and fielded quickly and was back in. And Max is one of the fastest players. This wasn’t a running error or a coaching error, it was just one of those it just was things.

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    12 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

    Nope, wrong assumption. There really was no time for Max to score on that. He wouldn’t have been out on a close play, he would have been out by a mile. I don’t remember the specifics, but I think it came off the wall hard and fielded quickly and was back in. And Max is one of the fastest players. This wasn’t a running error or a coaching error, it was just one of those it just was things.

    And Byron took second because he figured he wouldn't draw a throw, lest Max score?  Sometimes the official scorer doesn't give the batter a double in a situation like that, but again with Byron's speed I guess you have to err on the side of giving him credit for what he ended up getting.

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    1 hour ago, ashbury said:

    And Byron took second because he figured he wouldn't draw a throw, lest Max score?  Sometimes the official scorer doesn't give the batter a double in a situation like that, but again with Byron's speed I guess you have to err on the side of giving him credit for what he ended up getting.

    I don’t remember all the specifics, but kind of like the gr dbl, they got what they got and no more. Wasn’t due to runner or coaching error. 

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    We need to find a number 5 and a number 6 hitter that can drive in runs. While I know that RBIs are opportunity dependent, I still think they are a valuable statistic to evaluate guys in which should be run producing sponsors the orders, basically numbers 2-6 in the batting order. The ideal number 5 or number 6 hitter is someone with a decent batting average who has some power, at least some doubles power, would doesn't necessarily strike out a ton. I strongly disagree with the idea that Kepler is that guy. He simply is too streaky, has two low a batting average, and is the king of the empty out through pop-ups and weak ground balls. I also disagree with the thought that Urshela can fill that role, no power, or Sanchez/Jeffers, too many strikeouts/too low batting average. Those three guys should be batting 7, 8 and 9 or potentially replaced by someone who's a better hitter.

    I am beginning to understand why the Yankees couldn't go with Urshela at 3B. He just isn't a good enough hitter for that position. The problem we have is that the replacement, Miranda, is nowhere near as good a defender and an uncertain quantity as a hitter so you have to choose between potential offense and defense and we have chosen defense. I think we want to keep Urshela around because he maybe next year's shortstop while we wait for Lewis to come back.

    I think the way to find out if Kiriloff can be a middle of the order run producer is to play him every day in left field. LArnach is doing what he did last year, a solid start followed by falling off the table - .219/.390/.448 in the last 30 games, .125/.222/.250 in the last 7. I hated yo-yo the guy up and down but it is beginning to look like a trip back to AAA might be his best move. Our allows Kirilloff to play left field against right-handed starting pitching, with Garlick playing left field against left-handers. We can also probably find Kirilloff a day or two we get either DH or first base. I think the bottom line is we need to go into the second half of the season knowing who the 4-6  middle of the order bats are going to be. Kirilloff might be one of those guys, and we need to play him to find out. I do think we know so far that Kepler and Urshela could be that number 6 hitter, but are better suited to number 7 in the order, that both catchers should be hitting 8 or 9, and that Larnach isn't the answer, at least not this year. Miranda is another option so I do think it's important that he and Kirilloff get consistent at bats through the All-Star break to see if they can be the 5 and 6 hitters. I would love to see a consistent lineup of Arraez, Buxton, Correa, Kirilloff/Polanco, Polanco/Kirilloff, Miranda/Garlick, Kepler, Urshela, Catcher.  Celestino can either leadoff against left-handed starters or hit eight when he plays. Gordon fills in as necessary and hits in the back of the order. 

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    On 6/17/2022 at 3:37 PM, chpettit19 said:

    This is what I've been saying the last couple years. Kepler and Sano get so much heat because they aren't top 5 hitters, but have been forced to hit in the top 5 spots for years. If they were in the 7-9 holes people wouldn't be so upset. I think a top 5 of Buxton, Arraez, Correa, Polanco, and Kirilloff is a great start. And I think Larnach and Miranda have the potential to fill that 6 hole. Kepler, Celestino, Sanchez, Jeffers, Urshela, Garlick, Gordon types are fine in that bottom 3rd, but they need those last couple bats to become the offense they should be.

    I agree with much of what you are saying. Urshela has hit in high impact spots in the order far too often. Sánchez and Kepler as well. Youngsters Larnach, Kirilloff and Miranda have the potential to be middle of the order bats for the Twins for most of the decade, but none of those guys has even a full season of plate appearances in the majors. 
     

    The Twins aren’t the slugging team they were in 2019. They need to run the bases better and improve their situational hitting. There isn’t nearly enough “get ‘em over, get ‘em in” after lead off hits. I expect Kirilloff to help the offense improve and long-term I think Max Kepler is on his way out, even though he is a good player in almost all aspects of the game. 

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    4 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

    I agree with much of what you are saying. Urshela has hit in high impact spots in the order far too often. Sánchez and Kepler as well. Youngsters Larnach, Kirilloff and Miranda have the potential to be middle of the order bats for the Twins for most of the decade, but none of those guys has even a full season of plate appearances in the majors. 
     

    The Twins aren’t the slugging team they were in 2019. They need to run the bases better and improve their situational hitting. There isn’t nearly enough “get ‘em over, get ‘em in” after lead off hits. I expect Kirilloff to help the offense improve and long-term I think Max Kepler is on his way out, even though he is a good player in almost all aspects of the game. 

    Their base running is so bad. Some of it is a general lack of speed, but much of it is just really bad base running. It's costing them runs for sure. I'm not a proponent of "get 'em over," (only time I'm trading an out for moving a base runner is if it's scoring the runner) but they are very bad at "get 'em in" with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs. At least it feels that way. I haven't looked up any stats. But the strikeouts with a guy on 3rd and 1 out drive me nuts so it certainly feels like they fail in those situations a lot.

    They really need Kirilloff to step up while Polanco gets healthy and Correa, Arraez, and Buxton stay healthy. They need to be able to plug those 5 in everyday and let them do their thing (even against lefty starters, IMO). Put those 5 at the top everyday and just mess with the back 4 in the order based on matchups. At least that's what I'd do.

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    3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

     but they are very bad at "get 'em in" with a guy on 3rd and less than 2 outs. At least it feels that way. I haven't looked up any stats.

    And yet, stats are available to anyone with an internet connection.  I know you know how to look them up, but let me provide a couple of quick links, to the Twins season and to MLB as a whole:

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=MIN&year=2022#all_bases

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2022#all_bases

    Toward the middle of the "Bases Occupied" table, there is a line for 3rd base occupied and fewer than 2 outs, exactly the situation you are thinking about.  Our 2022 Twins are batting .402 (!) in 107 PA in that situation.  Sac flies numbered 18 (17%).  OPS total is a robust 1.008, with 75 RBI (.70 per opportunity).  Compare those numbers to MLB-wide: .316 BA in 3699 PA.  528 sac flies (14%).  834 OPS and 2329 RBI (.63 per).  In comparison to other teams (click on the "on 3rd, <2 out" link itself), we're 3rd in the majors in BA, 6th in On Base Percentage (which arguably means we're not taking many walks leaving that runner at 3rd), 3rd in slugging and 4th in OPS. 

    In terms of super-clutchy-magicalness with a man on third, our guys stack up very well.

    But this line of the table does reveal a problem (IMHO): we are 22nd in plate appearances, in those situations.  Those 107 opportunities with a man on third do not reflect a good offense getting men on base for the boppers to drive in.  There are 8 teams with over 140, with Boston leading everyone with 156.

    Shouldn't be a surprise, if you look at the top of this Bases Occupied table.  We're batting .230 with the bases empty.  With runners, it's .279.  League wide it's .232 and .254 respectively.  So we're just middle of the pack, not above average, at getting men on.   And somehow, based on the number of men-on-third opportunities, we seem to be streaky in that way.

    The bases start empty, and too often they stay empty.  We give opposing pitchers way too many comfortable (and probably clean) innings.

    Feast or famine, but we already knew that.

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