The chart above maps OPS and runs scored per game for each major league team. The trend line indicates (roughly) how many runs a team would be expected to score per game given its OPS. A point below the line indicates a team not scoring as many runs as they would be expected to:
- The Twins have the 8th highest OPS in the majors but only score the 14th most runs per game.
- Comparing their runs scored to the trend line, the Twins are scoring a fourth of a run per game (or one run every fourth game) less than they ought to.
Why is this happening? Imagine a team that hits a leadoff double every inning and strands their runner on second every time. This team would have a 0.750 OPS and score zero runs per game even though a team with a 0.750 OPS would typically score 4.6 runs per game. Does this happen because they struggle with runners in scoring position? Or because they are getting unlucky in spacing out their hits? If those 9 doubles would occur consecutively, they would score 8 runs.
If the former explanation seems more plausible, that’s bad news for the Twins. If the latter is more plausible, it’s time to buy stock in Twins run scoring (and sell off stock in the Guardians).
(Um, can we get a wellness check on the Tigers?)
For more Twins data, follow @TwinsData on Twitter. Duh.