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I’m going to be honest: a few weeks ago, I had a thought. Why are people down on Trevor Larnach? It felt like he was having a productive year. He had just hit his 10th home run, on pace to crack 20 homers for the first time in his career, and he was driving the ball well, sitting at 10 doubles just 69 games into the year, as well. But I looked up his OPS, and it was just a bit over league average, at .736 (105 OPS+).
At that point, I shrugged and just assumed I was overrating him in my head. That’s fine, acceptable production from a mediocre glove in the corner outfield. It’s not good, by any means, but it keeps the line moving.
In the weeks since, he’s continued producing (by the eye test), hitting for power and a decent average, and taking a few walks. But still, the numbers on the season weren’t there. He’s sitting at a 103 OPS+, in line with his career averages—but markedly lower than the 116 OPS+ he had last season, when he was one of the more quietly productive bats in the Twins lineup.
So I went poking around, and figured it out. It’s his performance against lefties.
Larnach is actually hitting better against righties this season than he did last year. Against righties, he was 20% above average last season and is 24% above average thus far this season. Against lefties, he was bad last year—37% below average—but this season he’s been unplayable at 63% below average.
It’s not only that his performance has slipped; it’s that he’s also getting considerably more run against lefties. Last season, 5.7% of his total plate appearances were against lefties, but this season he’s at 19.4%, meaning nearly one in every five plate appearances has come against southpaws.
Personally, I take performance against lefties as noise, for a left-handed batter. I just assume any left-on-left plate appearance is an out, and any hit is a fun bonus. That’s probably why I didn’t understand the slippage in his performance. I didn’t realize how many more of his plate appearances were against lefties. I’d say it’s not even slippage, but more like overexposure.
To put it into perspective, if instead of only 81% of his plate appearance coming against righties this season he hit against them 94% of the time, like last season, his OPS would raise from .744 to about .791, which would put him around the same level as Willi Castro, about 20% above league average. He’s got one of the worst slash lines against lefties on the team, being trailed only by Christian Vázquez among semi-regulars. And yet, he has the seventh-most plate appearances against lefties this season, leading all other lefties, too.
At the beginning of the season, manager Rocco Baldelli commented that Larnach had requested seeing more lefties, staying in against lefty relievers, and the chance to be a true everyday player. The organization also didn’t field many consistent lefty platoon bats. Much of the season has featured both Jonah Bride and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. as roster pieces, neither of whom the manager seems eager to play against lefties (even though Bride bats righty), leaving Larnach with the opportunity to hit them and stay in the game when a lefty comes up.
This is a departure from previous seasons, as players like Manuel Margot, Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer, Jordan Luplow, and Kyle Garlick have been rostered specifically to hit lefties—with varying degrees of success. This season, there has been no reason not to let Larnach—or other lefties like Matt Wallner and switch-hitters who struggle from the right side of the plate, like Brooks Lee—get opportunities to hit lefties.
But it hasn’t worked for Larnach. Wallner, Lee, Castro, and Kody Clemens have all had more success.
Admittedly, Larnach has gotten less run against southpaws in recent weeks. He’s started fewer games, ceding time to other lefty hitters (or Bride) in starting lineups against lefties, and he's been pulled in three straight games (for Lee, Lee, and Harrison Bader) over the weekend after a lefty reliever entered.
It’s just not working out now, and the Twins don’t have a clean swap to keep him out of the lineup when they roster Larnach, Wallner, Clemens, and Keirsey, unless they start both catchers—which isn’t the end of the world, but man, would it be nice if they had someone to consistently fill that spot. As it is, Larnach has become the de facto Max Kepler: the lefty batter who gets to face some lefties, but probably shouldn't, in the interest of both his own numbers and the team's success.







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