Tigers 4, Twins 0: Outplayed Every Which Way

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 5 SO, 93 Pitches
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Kody Funderburk -0.111, Harrison Bader -0.108, Trevor Larnach -0.091
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

On their third try, the Twins got the start they hoped they would see most of the time from Chris Paddack in 2025. The sturdy veteran righthander induced 12 whiffs in a 93-pitch, five-inning outing, after getting just 14 total whiffs in his first two starts, combined. His fastball sat comfortably in the 93-94 mph range, and as the game progressed, he worked in his changeup (a lot) and his two breaking balls (a little), acceding to the wishes his manager espoused for him in a pregame media session.

"I do think his other stuff is there, yes, to get a swing and a miss on occasion, but also to keep the other teams off of the fastball," Rocco Baldelli said Saturday. "And I think that that’s a very important key for him. So his usage will always be important, because it’s one thing to have a very good fastball, which Paddy’s fastball has always played well, but it’s another thing if the other teams are gonna lean on that pitch and just sell out to that pitch at times. So the ability to mix his other pitches in there effectively and successfully will be key for him, and how his fastball plays."

His approach worked well against the Tigers. Though the lefty-loaded lineup with which Tigers manager A.J. Hinch countered Paddack did work deep counts and force Paddack out of the game a bit sooner than the team might have preferred, Paddack held Detroit without an extra-base hit—and he might have held them scoreless, with better defensive support.

In the first inning, Paddack got himself into trouble by issuing a leadoff walk, but Carlos Correa compounded that peril by failing to retire Kerry Carpenter, on what was ruled an infield single. He threw the ball past first baseman Ty France, allowing Zach McKinstry to reach third base, and Spencer Torkelson cashed in the chance by hitting a long sacrifice fly to right field. Paddack stopped the bleeding there, but the Twins were working from behind against Tigers starter Jackson Jobe before they even went to the bat rack. 

In the fourth, Paddack again helped create his own jam. A leadoff single by Torkelson became more of a problem when Paddack walked Riley Greene. However, the Twins' peculiar unwillingness to position their infield to seize chances for a double play then came into play. When a lefty has been at bat with a runner on first and zero or one out this season, only the Padres have used a shaded infield alignment more often than the Twins' 82.9% of the time. They don't have their middle infielders play closer to second base, or even come in by a step or two to get to ground balls faster and facilitate a double play turn. In this case, that meant that France, Edouard Julien and Correa each had their heels just in front of the grass on the outer rim of the infield, with all three pulled around toward the pull side of Detroit second baseman Colt Keith.

When Keith hit a medium-speed, high-bounce chopper toward Julien, he came in to collect it—but had no chance to make a twin killing. He merely took the out at first, while both runners advanced into scoring position.

Next up was designated hitter Justyn-Henry Malloy, who lifted a high, lazy fly ball to right field. Matt Wallner drew a bead and came in several steps to catch the ball, but he was slow on the release, and his throw was well offline, to the first-base side of home plate. It was cut off, and the Tigers scored their second run.

The ball landed in Wallner's glove 266 feet from home plate, according to Statcast. Since the start of 2023, there have been 32 batted balls to right field, with a distance between 260 and 272 feet and a launch angle north of 45° (Malloy's was 51°), with a runner on third and less than two outs. Twenty-five of those have become sacrifice flies, though one of those still resulted in a double play when a runner heading to third was thrown out. Four have seen the right fielder throw the runner out at the plate. Three times, the runner at third didn't test the arm of the fielder.

In short, there was something like a 22% chance for the Twins not to yield a run on that ball, and if we adjust for both Wallner's arm strength (it's been one of the two or three strongest outfield arms in baseball each of the last two seasons) and Torkelson's below-average speed, it's fair to push that number closer to 40%. In the end, though, it didn't even look like a play with close-call potential.

Maybe it didn't matter, and maybe that play was the right microcosm for this contest—and the Twins' season, to date. After chasing Paddack, Detroit put up two quick, defense-independent runs in the sixth, with Torkelson launching a two-run homer off newly recalled southpaw Kody Funderburk. Baldelli had hoped Funderburk would come in and go right after hitters, and claimed not to be worried much about whether he faced lefties or righties. He brought him in to face a lefty-righty-lefty pocket of the Tigers lineup, though, and the righty in the middle doubled Detroit's advantage with a single swing.

Meanwhile, the Twins could do nothing with the rookie Jobe, who pitched six innings of two-hit, shutout ball. As has often been the case this year, the offense put the ball in play, striking out just twice against Jobe and his high-90s heater, but they also made the underwhelming kind of contact that has become their hallmark. Jobe only allowed six hard-hit balls, two of which were hit straight into the ground for easy outs. 

Jhoan Duran came on to work the top of the eighth, with all the usual attendant fanfare from the Target Field gameday operations team. He pitched well, and has looked good most of the time this year, but the special tingle of that big entry has never been less in evidence. The game situation made it fall flat. Nonetheless, with his performance, he put a bit of life back into a hopeful weekend crowd, and when Jose Miranda led off the bottom of the frame with a pinch-hit single, the buzz picked up. Harrison Bader put together a pesky at-bat against Tigers reliever Tyler Holton, but when it ended with a lineout to right field, the writing was on the wall.

Endlessly fascinated by the nuances of their capacity to torture and disappoint, however, the Twins reached deep into their bag to find a novel one. On a ground ball to Torkelson at first base off the bat of Christian Vázquez, second baseman Keith took his foot off the base too soon, leaving Miranda safe at second. It was a boneheaded play by Keith, on a ball that yielded no real chance to turn a double play—but Miranda one-upped him. After sliding into the base, and without noticing the safe call from the second-base umpire, Miranda turned and began trotting off the field. Keith, aghast and relieved at the same time, tagged him out. Wallner then struck out to kill the feeble rally, in relatively conventional fashion.

Notes
Ryan Jeffers was originally scheduled to start Saturday, but after being hit in the thumb Friday night, he came in with swelling in the area Saturday morning and Vázquez got the start, instead. Baldelli indicated that Jeffers could play if the team needed him, but they preferred to give him the day to let that swelling subside. The injury is not expected to keep him out for a prolonged period.

Castro's insertion into the No. 2 spot against right-handed pitchers appears to be semi-permanent. With Correa, Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach all struggling, making Castro a bridge piece in the top half of the batting order makes sense.

What's Next
The Twins will send Simeon Woods-Richardson to the mound to try to salvage one in the three-game intradivisional set. Righthander Casey Mize will take the ball for the Tigers, in a 1:10 PM CT start at Target Field. 

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