The Twins Payroll Meltdown: Six Crummy Ways It Affects Their Future

4 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

It takes a lot of cutting in the offices to get to one player value cut.  Plus the incremental value of losing analytics or scouting downstream value potentially costs much more than saved.  The optics are worse but I'd rather not have Gallo than $11m cuts in player development, medical etc. 

Darn good point.  I thought the same thing but just let it go.  What I was thinking when I responded was that some of the multi-million dollar facilities upgrades (if planned) could be postponed.

@chpettit19 I was bring a bit sarcastic. $$$ does indeed buy championships but the Twins may be better off bot spending all of it cause they make some very bad spending decisions. As a fan, I would rather watch a team play that wins more than it loses no matter what the payroll is.  The optics of the ownership quote yesterday will probably do as much damage as the actual non spending does. 

There has been a widespread usage of Julien as a DH going forward and placement of Brooks Lee at second base when he is ready. Most comments, with the exception of a few, have Lee arriving by June next year. Lee is a highly ranked prospect.

The guys behind the scenes (talent evaluators, scouts, coaches, and managers) are generally who makes the recommendations to the office suits on players to draft, move up, and ultimately to place in a position with the big squad. We do not know their thoughts.

I'm not thinking that Julien will be a primary DH. Furthermore (of course I could be way wrong), I do not see Julien playing many games as a first baseman. Julien is best suited for second base. Julien was never projected to be a star.

The unknown is whether Julien can make more significant improvement in the field and either hold his rookie lines or improve with the bat. It is always a nervous look when seeing how rookies react to MLB in their second and third seasons. I don't believe there are any guarantees. In 2021, MLB ranked Julio Rodriguez as the second best Mariner prospect.with Emerson Hancock ahead of both Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. 

Brooks Lee has done well as a prospect. He flew through the system and finished in AAA in his first full season of professional baseball. He plays a good shortstop and most comments include his final position as a third baseman while thinking he could also handle second base. Lee projects as a solid regular who even might make an All Star team. 

It is wonderful to have too many good players but if there isn't anywhere for them to play on a daily basis, the full development of a player like Lee or Julien may never occur. When people suggest there are plenty of at bats to go around I wonder how much players like Lewis, Lee, and Julien would be affected by not knowing their status on the team. I don't see either Lewis, Lee or Julien as utility players.

I get that most people will believe that it is way too early to pick one or the other, but I'm thinking now is the time to best use the player resources to find an exchange for a starting pitcher with years of control remaining. I'm inclined to be wary of trading guys like Emmanuel Rodriguez or David Festa. Walker Jenkins is the only player I would not consider trading. 

Then again, perhaps the Twins become the first team in baseball to begin a season with only players who were in their system from the previous year.

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Well the Twins didn't even win 90 games this year in maybe the worst division in MLB history, and you're talking about trading their 2 hole hitter so that they're better in 2 years. Good luck with the year after year of 90 win teams strategy that way. I mean so far it's gotten them one 90 win season in the last 13 years. 6 total since the start of the 21st century. Oakland has three 90 win seasons in the last 10 years. Cleveland has been quite good with five 90 win seasons over the last 10. Your precious Rays have four 90 win seasons in the last 10 years. Your strategy doesn't even work to get you the "year after year of 90 win teams" you want as the team you want to model the Twins after doesn't even win 90 games half the time.

They can execute my model. If they weren't slashing payroll right now they could afford another $30 million contract to go with Correa's for the next 5 years. They have Lopez for 21.5 a year after next year and they can afford that, too. It's absolutely false that they can't execute the strategy of paying high priced guys during the window that they have a wave of young talent coming. If the Pohlads really wanted to get crazy they could even jump their payroll up to 170 mil which would be in line with their MLB provided market score and then they could afford another $20 million deal without much problem. That's 4 deals over 20 million that they could easily afford for the next 5 years, but your strategy is instead to trade Polanco and his 10 mil so they can maybe get a prospect that's ready in 2 years when they'll have to trade Jeffers because now he's expensive and running out of contract. 

My strategy is that you marry your expensive guys with the cheap guys. When Buxton, Correa, Lopez, my dream 30 mil player, and 20 mil player come off the books in 5 years you replace their salaries with whichever internal guys have earned their paydays, or external guys if not enough of the internal guys have earned that money. Then you supplement them with the new guys you're developing on cheap deals. Rinse and repeat. If the Twins spent to the level MLB's own data suggests they should spend to they can absolutely afford multiple expensive contracts while developing well and not having to trade away their 2 hole hitter in hopes it improves their team 2 years down the road. My strategy gives them 5 more seasons to develop players to keep the cycle going. If they can't develop a handful of guys in the next 5 years without trading their veterans they're not going to succeed anyways.

Yeah, I'll take the bet that Correa out performs Stott in 2024.

This is just one part of the equation that the "be the Rays," crowd doesn't want to acknowledge. If it was that easy to replace established talent with cheap, young players and maintain or improve production, every team would do it. Every. Single. One. The line between TB and those Pittsburgh teams of the early 2000s into the 2010s is razor thin. Idk why anybody would prefer the Twins operate like TB when, as has been pointed out across this thread, the funds are are there, i.e. available, if MN wants to spend. 

You're fighting a losing battle. Not because you're wrong, it's just impossible to "win," an argument against an internet GM. I can't believe the credentials card hasn't been played yet. 

With a wide open window to win and more budding young stars on the way, the FO needs to set up a path to a championship in the next couple years. I think we are in for a very unexpected off season. It has started out as bad as it possibly could have. 

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Agree the moves made need to be to bring in legit studs.  I'm OK with bringing a pitcher that only almost fills Grays spot if he's young, controllable and projectable but I wouldn't be spending 10-15m on a reclamation project.  Also agreed that Kepler and Polo set a very nice floor.  If they are getting beat out at a spot that will be a good thing all around.  They are also going to provide more value at cost than anything we could sign or trade them for at this point.  If we think we want to bring in studs, they won't get it done without major sweetening.  Then we lose their production, the prospects and risk back filling at a lower level.  The more I think about it the right move is to wait until someone forces them off their spots.

I'm also more intrigued with the idea of calling Kepler the primary center fielder against righties.  Hear me out, hes not Kiermaier out there but should be solid.  I know he supposedly doesn't want to but he took coaching mid-season and adjusted.  The team and his agent should present that if he goes to free agency as a solid center fielder that hits 30 HR the Twins won't be able to afford him.  He will make a ton of money and free up a lot of roster concerns.  Let the hand cannon play right and free up left field for more rotation types.  Get what you can out of Buxton and if he's miraculously healed its a good problem.

It also saves $10m spend in center field.  We are halfway to the cut already.

As for the pitching, you and I agree on the target but we disagree on which bank account to use to pay for it.  I'm with you that not all of these prospects are going to pay out but they are a store of value from which they can tap.  I'm OK with selling anyone but Walker, Lee, ERod and um, thats about it.  Those three could go to if the target was a greek god of pitching.  My guy I'm shopping is Julien and by himself he can get a pretty decent pitcher.  Add some prospects and go for it.

Anyone can spend money but truly well run businesses see and move value around.

 

It takes a lot of cutting in the offices to get to one player value cut.  Plus the incremental value of losing analytics or scouting downstream value potentially costs much more than saved.  The optics are worse but I'd rather not have Gallo than $11m cuts in player development, medical etc. 

 

Agree with everything here except the Festa part as the lone untouchable.  Do you know something we don't?  Question for another discussion, welcome aboard.

It does illustrate that we know nothing about how anyone values our prospects and what we can actually get.  If the Mariners are in love with Yassar Mercedes, great, I'm not.  Go for it.

I don’t know have inside information on Festa. Just my opinion that he has the “stuff” and the body to be a front line starter at the MLB level and soon. Maybe as soon as midway through 2024. The FO has their value of twins prospects, it’s now their job to gauge market value and determine what trades, if any, will improve the roster. I hear that Burnes is available. I wonder if Glasnow is also available. 
Another point to consider is that all the top FA that fans want the Twins to break the bank on all started out in MiLB and developed into stars. Even AAA players are not finished products. Adjustments, sometimes minor, can push a middling prospect into a quality player or pitcher. 

I say all of this a little tongue-in-cheek. Maybe it will be taken that way. Maybe not.

The real winner in this is Mr. Bonnes. He throws out a flamethrower title (Meltdown!!) and then watches as 160 plus comments are registered. We've got eyeballs baby!!!!!!

The same Mr. Bonnes who suggested two weeks ago on his podcast that the Twins 2024 payroll should be $170 million because it was $154 million last year and those players need a cost-of-living increase. I hadn't laughed that hard in a while. Thank you. I needed that. 

I would guess that Falvey's comments might have been floated to right-size expectations like this. I have no idea where that comment came from (we lost $54 million in revenue, let's spend more!!) but there it was. This podcast's popularity suggests that it is a thought leader.  

The Twins will be fine. I have increasing confidence in the FO and the next-gen ownership to do smart and competitive things. Lets give them a chance.

But, y'all sign up for the Patreon. Podcasters need to fight inflation too.      

With all of the chatter about spending to win now or trading away the veterans for more porspects I know one thing is certain. The spending for veterans that the Twins brought in last off-season did little to help the Twins win in 2023. Gallo ($11M) hit .177. Correa ($33.3M) hit .230. Vazquez ($10M) hit .223. Taylor ($4.5M) hit .220. Solano ($2M) hit .282. Castro ($1.8M) hit .257. Farmer ($5.585M) hit .256. Ironically the guys that cost the least produced better than the ones that cost the most. It doesn't take a genius to see why they struggled to score runs most of the season. SPENDING for veterans DOESN'T guarantee any more success than not spending. To spout-off endlessly that the Twins just need to spend money to win a Championship won't make it happen. They need to spend it on the right players, players that produce consistantly year after year. Unfortunately, they are NOT doing that and this year proved it. Even more frightening is that they have close to $50M tied up in 2 players that are not consistant producers. That is going to be a heavy burden for the next 5 years.

13 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's some awful use of one statistic to make a point. Taylor and Solano and Castro 100% saved this team. CC did a lot of other things than hit for average. 

Not one person has ever said spending guarantees anything....but we know not spending makes it nearly impossible to win the WS (only 8 in the last thirty years weren't in the top 10 in spending).

Point is, they are wasting money on players that don't perform. Correa is one of them. He's been given an ALL-Star type contract. In his 9 years he's been there twice. He's been touted as a great defensive SS yet he's only won a Gold Glove once. How many seasons has he had 200 hits or 30HR's or 100RBI's? Not one! He's paid like a superstar and isn't close. Buxton is just as bad if not worse. He's only played 1 full season in his 9 year career. Again, 1 Gold Glove, only 1 All-Star appearance. And these 2 guys are the foundation that they are trying to build around. I'd gladly take the money from both and use it on players that can play, play everyday and produce every year. It is money wasted and the only way they can prove me wrong is if they both play at a high level for the entire season. Good Luck with that.

I did forget 1 thing that Correa was good at... hitting into a league leading number of double plays.

22 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Plus "be the Rays" is unachievable for anyone else, apparently. Because they are the only ones to keep it going for more than a few years.

Exactly. If an actual blueprint existed somebody would've cracked the code by now. 

On 11/10/2023 at 2:59 PM, rv78 said:

With all of the chatter about spending to win now or trading away the veterans for more porspects I know one thing is certain. The spending for veterans that the Twins brought in last off-season did little to help the Twins win in 2023. Gallo ($11M) hit .177. Correa ($33.3M) hit .230. Vazquez ($10M) hit .223. Taylor ($4.5M) hit .220. Solano ($2M) hit .282. Castro ($1.8M) hit .257. Farmer ($5.585M) hit .256. Ironically the guys that cost the least produced better than the ones that cost the most. It doesn't take a genius to see why they struggled to score runs most of the season. SPENDING for veterans DOESN'T guarantee any more success than not spending. To spout-off endlessly that the Twins just need to spend money to win a Championship won't make it happen. They need to spend it on the right players, players that produce consistantly year after year. Unfortunately, they are NOT doing that and this year proved it. Even more frightening is that they have close to $50M tied up in 2 players that are not consistant producers. That is going to be a heavy burden for the next 5 years.

Spending is without a doubt advantageous.  The Dodgers and Yankees win records will attest to that advantage while Seager and Semien are testaments to your point about picking the right free agents.  To your point … there are countless examples of free agents that do not live up to expectations or fail completely.  I remember some here being incensed that the Twins did not sign the sure thing that was Madison Bumgardner.

Here is the part that eludes fans.  There are about 10 teams that generate $100-300M more than the Twins.  So, while spending is advantageous, when the twins run out of money, those teams have $100M plus to spend.  The collective incremental spending those teams have is probably in the neighborhood of $2B.  Those teams are going to take that incremental income and absorb the top free agents.  This is an absolute of economics we refuse to accept.

By far the most important aspects of roster building for the twins are drafting or trading for prospects and developing them.  Ironically, being productive at developing players enables more free agent spending.  However, teams with the twins level of income are only going to be able to afford a couple big contracts at any given time where the Dodgers and Yankees can afford several.  Our acquisitions better be good and last year they were not. Correa and Buxton produced 1.7 WAR.  Semien and Seager produce 12.4.  The biggest potential improvement is for the high-priced guys we already have to perform.  It is really odd to me that people seem to accept Correa's poor production because they are happy the twins spent a lot to sign him.
 

$5M left over for a reliever or gross and old veteran utility player.

Darn - wish I were a veteran utility player

On 11/8/2023 at 2:04 PM, Dave Lemke said:

At this time it has disappeared. They don't know now what a new deal will look like. Perhaps it goes down and perhaps it goes up but at this point it is an unknown. You don't buy a new car after losing your job because you feel a new job will appear.

Maybe they won't sell any tickets either! They'd better cut payroll to nothing in case nobody attends games in person!