Swapping Kirilloff for Martin Magnifies Minnesota's Matchup Problems

Entering today, I believe the Twins are top 10 in runs scored per game at 4.9. (What I heard during the game). The larger issue is, much like the first half of 2023, scoring in BUNCHES, but not scoring CONSISTENTLY. 

I don't think this is entirely due to a LH batter weakness. Royce being gone for 2 months HURT. If you had told me Buxton would be playing full out, healthy, in 50 of the first 60-ish games, I would have guessed he'd have a high .700 to .800 OPS, NOT in the .660's. 

I have nothing against Martin, still have hopes for him, and am crossing fingers he turns out to be a nice part of the puzzle. But patience and contact will only carry so far when your SLG% is in the .350-.360 range. My goodness, as I posted in another OP, Luis Arraez had a SLG% over .400 in MILB and he has limited power. Had Kiersey been healthy, and not on the Saints IL currently, I have to wonder if they would have made room and brought him up instead. He provides a LH bat with pop, he provides speed and defense. We'll only know if he can hit ML pitching if and when he gets a chance.

If you had told me before the season Larnach would look like he's finally figured it out and would be performing as a daily player, I would have been overjoyed. If you told me AK was SUPPOSEDLY healthy and off to a great start, I would have expected it to continue. The fact that he's nosedived is very concerning for now, and the future. 1 out of 2 isn't so bad though, right?

If you told before the season that Wallner and Julien would hit a couple speed bumps...which I expected and stated...and weren't performing to the levels they displayed in 2023, I would believed you and said I expected growing pains. If you had told me they would both slump so badly they needed a AAA reset, I wouldn't have believed you.

Conversely, if you had told me that Santana, after 60+ games, had a AVG .70 points lower from the LH side vs the RH side, and an OPS .150 points lower from the LH side, but had more HR and twice as many RBI from his weak side, I wouldn't have believed you.

I DON'T hate PH, I just don't like doing it too early in the game.

I DON'T hate LIMITED platooning, as long as the RH "platoon" options don't STINK against RH arms. 

I'm also in favor of a couple LH bats in the lineup against a LHP to start a game for a variety of reasons, but not really the issue in this OP.

At SOME POINT this season, the Twins really need Julien and Wallner...maybe Kirilloff still...to FIND THEMSELVES and get back up and produce. And let's be honest here, whether you are a believer in Julien OR Wallner, what we've seen THIS season is not indicative of what we've seen from them in MILB, OR, what we've seen them do at the ML level to this point.

There isn't a LH batter riding a white horse coming in to save the day. Larnach needs to keep doing what he's doing...I think he just might...and Kepler needs to get hot again. But beyond that, Julien...or Lee...needs to settle 2B and produce, and let Castro be the super utility player he is. (There is potentially room for both). And Wallner, hopefully, can be ready to re-establish himself over the next few weeks as a dangerous hitter in the lower half of the order.

The pieces ARE there. It's up the staff AND the players themselves to "get right".

5 minutes ago, RpR said:

What you see is,  what they are now, not, what some expected or hoped for but what they are, with Wallner showing what was to come already in the post season.

So Wallner is a quality prospect, produces very well at the ML level...maybe more than future portence...slumps some, rebounds for a couple weeks, and then has a poor post season as a rookie, and that's a crystal ball that he would be terrible in 2024 and the rest of his career? 

By your short leash standards, every young player who struggles a bit should just be dismissed.

Better RAKE when you hit the Majors kid, because there's no going back! Is that what you propose?

I've never stated Wallner is going to be a STAR player. But he's demonstrated real ability at ALL levels. I sure wouldn't give up on a young talent who hit a bump in the road.

13 hours ago, purplesoldier4u said:

Most would argue that the loss of less than $9 million in television revenue idicates they still had plenty to spend.

I don't know much about my neighbors financial situation but he sold his boat and bought three canoes. 

15 hours ago, Linus said:

This. There has been a lot of discussion about the whole left / right platoon debate. The real problem is that too many of our hitters have been bad no matter which box they stand in. Farmer has damn near been hung in effigy while the person who was getting 75% of the at bats was nearly as bad. The Twins just need more good hitters - period. 

If Rocco was asked why he platoons. 

I'm pretty sure that whatever he says... long answer short answer... it doesn't matter... he will be telling you that his players are not good enough in some form or fashion.  

Players who are good enough are not platooned. 

14 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Castro was much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching last year. His career splits aren't very wide. I'm fairly comfortable with Willi from either side of the plate.

Frankly, since May 1, Santana has been better against any pitching than Kirilloff. 

Shielding left handed pitchers against left handed pitchers is fairly easily done. It's really hard to do the reverse (shield righties from righties). Personally, I would like to see more consistency from all of the hitters.

Which brings up another point. 

The Ole' Bouncing Ball.

Castro was better against right handed pitching last year... This year he is better against left handed pitching. Years prior... left handers. 

Ryan Jeffers is all of a sudden better against right handers this year. 

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Good players will play and be regulars as Carlos Correa, a healthy Buxton and Royce Lewis demonstrate. Maximizing the talents of of lesser players is what teams and their managers aspire to do. Casey Stengel platooned at several positions and won world championships for the New York Yankees. Tom Kelly also used players in platoons. The Twins and probably 20 other teams are trying to build winning teams with some great players and some less than great players who fill roles. 

The one thing that Baldelli does that old style managers really didn't do is pinch hit early in games. I guess the analytics say that you take the chance and make the move early. 

I hope the team develops more everyday players. Maybe Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins could be two candidates and they both hit left handed.

Nearly every team in baseball utilizes a platoon or two or even three. 

No team in baseball places every single left handed hitter they have into handcuffs, grabs the top of their head and shoves them in the back seat of the police car for the crime of being left handed. 

3 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Totally agree. I have pretty much agreed with Baldelli's choices in general as far as starting lineups, although it is tough for a young left handed hitter to "grow" if he's always lifted for a pinch hitter any time a lefty reliever is on the mound. Three younger guys who were routinely platooned (Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff) are now wearing Saints jerseys. I don't know if strict platooning hurt them, but it didn't seem to help.

 

The Twins are holding them by the ankle and dipping them in cement. They will never be able to hit left handers because even if they did hit left handers... the sample will never be big enough to justify it.  

If I'm Walter Jenkins... I'm hating that the Twins drafted me because the Twins are going to hurt him.  

You practically guarantee that the Twins will have to replace Margot next year with another Margot because someone has to wait for the left hander. 

Every Margot you sign... it's one less spot to develop a player who won't need to be platooned and if you don't develop players who don't need to be platooned... you have to sign more Margot types. Which leads to less spots to develop a player who doesn't need to be platooned... which leads to the need to sign more Margots. 

Now of course... If the Twins do happen to develop someone who doesn't need to be platooned... He is going to be a right handed hitter because the left handed hitter still needs to sit to feed the Margot. 

Endless cycle that you can't get away from and it will spin with increasing momentum. 

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Totally agree. I have pretty much agreed with Baldelli's choices in general as far as starting lineups, although it is tough for a young left handed hitter to "grow" if he's always lifted for a pinch hitter any time a lefty reliever is on the mound. Three younger guys who were routinely platooned (Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff) are now wearing Saints jerseys. I don't know if strict platooning hurt them, but it didn't seem to help.

 

Using Julien as an example. 

His numbers looked pretty good last year. .263 Batting Average - .839 OPS - 16 Home Runs in 408 AB's. 

I'm not anti-platoon. I believe that it is quite possible that if he was allowed to hit left handers last year. Those numbers may not have looked as nice. I'm willing to recognize that the platoon helped at least the optics of his overall numbers in his rookie season. I'm willing to concede that Julien facing left handers may have dragged, drug his overall numbers down. 

Corbin Carroll in 2023 a young left hander who was not platooned. (I know that Julien is not Corbin Carroll). Had 174 PA's against left handers - He had a total of 650 PA's for 26.7% against left handers. 

Julien in 2023 had 48 PA's against left handers - He had a total of 408 PA's. That's 11.7%. 

In order to reach the Corbin percentage. Julien would have to add 83 PA's against Left Handed Pitchers to reach the Carroll every day percentage. 

I won't use OPS because there are way too many assumptions that need to be made on these hypothetical extra 84 AB's for OPS. 

In terms of Batting Average. If he maintained his .196 BA over those extra 83 trips to the plate against left handers. 

His overall batting average would drop to .252 and the fan base isn't as excited. 

However... and this is important. Assuming that Julien remains at .196 in those 83 AB's against Lefties. I don't assume that... I assume that he will be better over time but let's leave him static. That's 17 hits over 83 AB's.

A. 333 batting average against lefties in 83 trips to the plate is 27 hits. 10 more hits for the .333 guy on the short side of the platoon. 

But... we are not talking about a .333 batting average on the short side of that platoon. Margot is .300 and Farmer is .224. they combine for .266 

.266 over 83 AB's is 22 hits. 

If Julien doesn't improve with more exposure. I think he would... We gained 5 hits with the platoon over a fairly significant period of time. 

Those extra 5 hits came at the cost of development. They came at the cost of an extra roster spot dedicated to achieving those extra 5 hits. And they came at the cost of short side right handers needing to face right handers because there are so many of them. 

The 5 hits are nice

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

Farmer is a month away from respectability ….Margot is around .280 v. LH pitching……Santana is 2nd on club in HR & RBI & definitely above average on defense.

The disappointment is with ALL 3 young left handed bats being failures to date. The fact that all 3 are in St. Paul on June 14 is telling.

Don’t see this as a FO failure.

Failure is a strong word with both the young lefties and it's a strong word for the front office as well. 

The proper word is something less than failure... Call it a slip... But it was at least a degree of a mistake of some sorts.  

Yes all 3 young left handed batters haven't been what was hoped and they are all down in the minors now. 

The front office built this roster with the expectation that those 3 young left handers would not slip or fail or no gets injured (Slip and Fall would work for injury). 😉

Our extra roster inventory was used up entirely for players who are best used to cover for the young left handers and hopefully not needed to face right handed hitters.

Well those left handers are gone now and Santana, Margot and Farmer will now have to cover for them against right handers with a .667, .525 and .502 OPS.       

Just now, jorgenswest said:

How are we measuring better? I don’t believe the skill is changing. I don’t believe Jeffers is better against right handed pitching.

If we are using slash stats to assess better we need to wait a long time. Batting average stabilizes at 920 at bats. OBP is 460 PAs and SLG is 320 ABs. It would take multiple seasons of facing left handed pitching to get there. I suppose strike out rate (60 PAs) and walk rate (120 PAs) will be surpassed for a few in season.

Note: the sample size number in a split might be slightly less because the sample is more controlled but plate appearances against lefties is still infrequent.  I suppose that lack of consistency might necessitate a larger sample. Bottom line is that a partial season of a split is a poor predictor of future performance.

I just used OPS down and dirty. I make no effort to bang the gavel down on any small sample size metrics. I just use it to make a point that the numbers are unstable. Castro hit right handers last year and Castro is hitting left handers this year.   

Agreed on your point. You need more data to stabilize any data and it's this bouncing ball that is being chased to justify the platooning. 

13 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The numbers are unstable but I think a player’s skill is pretty stable. Skill will change with experience, injury and aging but it is not a bouncing ball.

I can't argue that because I think you are right... However... If the skill is stable.

Why are Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner down in the minors? 

What are we gaining using two roster spots to keep a Farmer on hand to protect a Julien? 

Just being the devil's advocate. 

16 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

All reverse splits are false. Both for pitchers and hitters.

Except for the extremely rare exceptions. Which don't exist.

I'm intrigued. 

Can you expand on this.