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They have a three-time All-Star closer on their staff, but unfortunately they can't count on him. Glen Perkins is coming back from a daunting surgery to reattach his shoulder labrum, and if he returns anywhere close to his previous level of effectiveness, he'll be beating the odds.
In the latest update on the 33-year-old's recovery via Mike Beradino of the Pioneer Press, the only word was that Perkins is "making progress" several months after his operation. It still doesn't sound like he's throwing. Paul Molitor was measured in his assessment:
Of course, "hoping for the best" is not where you want to be with the most traditionally important spot in the bullpen. The Twins need contingencies. In fact, they need more than that. Even if his rehab goes smoothly and he looks strong and healthy heading into spring training, the Twins should have someone else lined up for the ninth so that they can ease him back in. Evaluate Perk's post-surgery effectiveness during the early months, and assign him accordingly.
(I will add here that even if Perkins is somehow able to return to his peak dominance, I still would prefer not to return him to the closer role, in a strict sense. This postseason has only reinforced the way such a limiting usage pattern provides a competitive disadvantage. The Orioles fell out early because they were too fixated on using Zach Britton in a save opportunity. Meanwhile, the Indians have thrived while utilizing Andrew Miller as a true flexible bullpen ace.)
Even with my stated feelings on the above, I can't deny the importance of having a closer in place. And without question, the Twins also recognize it. They may evolve under new leadership in the front office, but they're not going to suddenly become a team that eschews the mainstream and puts no effort into designating a reliable and experienced ninth-inning guy.
Perhaps that guy is already on the roster. The first big test – and barometer – for Derek Falvey and his new general manager will be an earnest evaluation of Brandon Kintzler. The veteran right-hander was a classic Terry Ryan relief reclamation story, turning from minor league free agent signing into bullpen staple.
Kintzler was more than adequate while filling in as closer in the second half. He threw strikes, induced lots of grounders and kept the ball in the yard. In all, he converted 17 of 20 save chances, and that sounds just fine.
But let's not forget that Kintzler was replacing Kevin Jepsen, whom the Twins had no choice but to drop after he performed dreadfully for three months. They made the mistake of putting too much faith in Jepsen based on his short run of success in the previous second half. Are they going to do the same with Kintzler, who was considerably less impressive?
This is a good opportunity for the restructured front office to differentiate itself by being proactive rather than reactive. Head into next season with a plan that offers concrete long-term upside. There are plenty of ways to do so.
One way would be installing J.T. Chargois in the role. He was a closer in college, and in the minors. After shaking off some initial rookie struggles, he looked the part of a shutdown late-inning arm down the stretch with Minnesota. At this point in time, he undoubtedly profiles as the heir apparent behind Perkins.
But this feels like skipping a step. Chargois still only has 25 major-league appearances. Throwing him into the fire so quickly could prove detrimental. Why not take it a bit slower and let him work his way up? This would be a more characteristic Twins approach.
Another idea, and one that I don't expect to happen, would be giving Michael Tonkin a shot. He's coming off a rough campaign and is out of options. The Twins need to figure out what they have in him. They may already feel they know, following a 5.02 ERA during his first full year in an MLB bullpen, but that work came in an unfamiliar long relief role.
Tonkin was at his best when he was a Triple-A closer. Why not give him the reins – even with a short leash – then see how his body and confidence respond?
Look, I know many are unimpressed with what they've seen from Tonkin. But his minor-league numbers, and his ability to throw the ball past big-league hitters, are rare finds within a Minnesota bullpen. The team is much better served showing patience with a hurler like him than feeding innings to guys like Kintzler and Jepsen.
However, I do understand that players like Chargois and Tonkin fall short in one important category: experience. Neither has any, as a closer, in the major leagues. One might argue this doesn't matter too much given the level of expectation this team will have next year, but if Molitor is focused on winning a whole lot more games, he will probably want an option that makes him a little more comfortable at the end.
There is a path to both experience AND long-term upside in the role. It only requires that the Twins take an aggressive tack with some free agents that may carry significant risk.
The relief market offers a few excellent buy-low chances, which should particularly appeal to a Minnesota team that can afford to take some gambles.
Neftali Feliz is one such candidate. Back in 2010, the righty won Rookie of the Year while saving 40 games for the Rangers, and he added 32 more the following season. Then, Texas tried shifting him to the rotation, and he got hurt and underwent Tommy John surgery. His frequent trips to the disabled list led to a lukewarm free agent market last winter before he signed with Pittsburgh on a one-year, $3.9 million deal.
Feliz looked good as a setup man with Pittsburgh. His fastball velocity was as high as it's been since 2011, and he averaged 10.2 K/9 while holding opponents to a .207 average. Still only 28, he presents the rare free agent combination of youth, closing experience, and an extremely high ceiling. The Twins won't be Feliz's – or any coveted player's – first choice with all things being equal, but money talks.
If they want to find similar benefits but don't want to spend as much, the Twins could pursue Drew Storen. Unlike Feliz, he's not coming off a strong year, and in fact he's had a rough go of it in general lately. But he is a former 40-save closer who is younger than the typical FA at 29, and for the most part he has been an effective backend bullpen arm in his career. He has the potential to be a closer or a standout setup guy. The Twins could use either.
One final free agent name to monitor: Greg Holland. He notched 125 saves with a 1.97 ERA from 2013 through 2015 with the Royals, but sat out the 2016 season following Tommy John surgery. He will be 16 months removed from that operation on Opening Day next year, so he's a relatively safe bet. Holland might be predisposed to return to Kansas City but, again, money talks.
Ultimately, the point is that the Twins should be viewing their open closer job as an opportunity rather than a burden. There's no reason to spend big on a premier name like Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen, but there's really no reason to run with someone like Kintzler who will do nothing but keep the seat warm. Aim higher.
What would be your preferred blueprint for addressing the ninth inning with Perkins in limbo?
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