Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images
Twins Video
In 6,721 defensive innings over his 11-season major-league career, Byron Buxton has only ever played center field. The last time he played a position other than center in affiliated ball was in 2014, when he notched 14 innings in right field at High-A. This development shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who follows the Twins—or baseball, for that matter. Buxton has long been a world-class athlete, with elite sprint speed and a feel for making late adjustments when needed.
That athleticism resulted in him winning a Platinum Glove Award in 2017, when he was arguably the rangiest center fielder of the 2010s. Nine years later, however, the 32-year-old is no longer one of the sport’s best center fielders. That's no knock against Buxton; him still being one of the fastest players in baseball 11 seasons into his career is a remarkable feat. Despite maintaining that speed on the bases, though, Buxton has regressed in multiple defensive metrics over the past two seasons. He still makes all the routine plays, but he no longer takes away should-be hits.
Of course, Buxton doesn’t have to be an elite defender to remain at center field. He's still playable there, with 3 Outs Above Average (OAA) over 193 attempts this season. Cracks are still forming beneath the surface, however. He’s remained elite at tracking balls hit in front of and behind him this season. However, his ability to reach balls on which he has to range far to his left or right has steadily regressed over the past couple of seasons, with 2026 as a low point.
Moving toward third base, Buxton has generated 1 OAA. At the same time, he has manufactured 0 OAA moving toward first. His combined 1 OAA while moving laterally would be the lowest mark of his career (save his 2018 campaign, when he played only 28 games). Can you guess his second-worst season getting to balls hit laterally? Great job, valued reader! You’re correct. It was 2025. Buxton has steadily regressed in his ability to reach balls hit in the gap over the past two seasons, and at this point in his career, it's extremely likely that he'll continue to fade.
Again, nobody is holding Buxton to the same standard as Pete Crow-Armstrong or Ceddanne Rafaela. Twins decision-makers would be more than justified in finishing the 2026 season with Buxton as the club’s primary center fielder; his regression doesn’t require immediate attention. Still, Minnesota would be wise to have a succession plan in place for 2027. Luckily, the organization’s top solution is knocking on the door of the majors in Triple-A: first-ranked prospect Walker Jenkins.
I’m not advocating that Minnesota call up Jenkins right now. He's a 21-year-old enjoying his first extended success against Triple-A pitching. He is still a platoon liability against left-handed pitching, netting a .277 xwOBA over 80 plate appearances at Triple-A. He is undeniably at the parent club’s door, preparing to rush through, with intentions of immediately becoming one of Minnesota’s best position players. That time will come, but there’s a strong chance it won’t be until 2027. Whenever Jenkins does get his contract selected from Triple-A St. Paul, the Twins should make him their primary center fielder, moving Buxton to the corner outfield.
Jenkins has played center field in most of his appearances at Triple-A, with 370 innings at the position. He's been solid, with no errors and good range. Right now, Buxton is probably as good or better in center than Jenkins is. However, by this time next year, that won't be true. What separates Jenkins from Buxton now is the top prospect’s elite arm value, an area in which Buxton has declined more obviously and sharply.
Buxton sports a -1 Arm Value over 168 advancement attempts in 2026, placing him in the bottom third of the league. Runners have been able to take extra bases on him, a trend that has become significantly worse since 2024, when Buxton was toward the top of the league. Jenkins, however, has one of the best arms in the minors.
Whether Buxton moves to left or right field is largely inconsequential. Right field is higher on the defensive spectrum, with clubs often placing stronger-armed fielders there in order to reduce a runner’s likelihood of advancing from first to third on a single or tagging up from second to third on a flyout to right. Buxton is probably better-suited to left, particularly given that left-center is deeper than right-center at Target Field. One way or another, though, it's time to start making a succession plan—which, in this case, is also a relocation plan.
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now