Grading the 9 Trades from the Twins’ 2025 Trade Deadline

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Disappointing to think we might have gotten a high A or AA player if we just ate the rest of Dobber's deal.

The Twins could have received much better prospects if they were willing to eat more money. They saved at least $13M on the expiring contracts. If they send cash to all of those teams, they'll get better players in return. If they had eaten all $115M remaining on Correa's contract they probably could have had 4 of Houston's top 10 prospects. We all know that this team doesn't have money to buy prospects like that.

28 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

So I don't know if  paying any part of those remaining contracts makes a difference? Maybe Bader?

Castro had $2M left as well. Plus, eating the contract means you can sell them to teams who are paying the luxury tax. It opens up the market.

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, but it took 2-3 years to build.....I think we all see the vision. The other thing it requires is making the decision next year....not in 2-3 years. That's been an issue for this FO, imo. Waiting too long to move guys (Jax and Varland were never going to be successful starters).

Seems like Jax, Varland and Duran were pretty effective in their first full year as a reliever. I need to have hope that the Twins bullpen can turn it around quick. Part of that hope is that some of their excess in starters will be a foundation for a good bullpen 2026. I also don’t think they need to prepare to be relievers in the minors so keeping them starting was a good plan. In Duran’s case he never had a year where he was a failed starter. I think they maximized his use as a reliever. I think the same of Jax. He had one partial season as a major league starter and moved to relief. I think they should have moved Varland to start last year and lost a year. There was reporting that Varland wasn’t ready to give up starting that might have had an impact. I think the bigger impact was the foolish trade for DeSclafani. His unsurprising injury forced them to turn to Varland.

I survive on hope and have to hope it isn’t going to take 2-3 years.

While I know the Correa trade was a salary dump we should be paying less of his contract maybe 20-25 million with atleast their # 25 prospect or a good lotto player. In that 22-30 range.  Houston could still add that guy in the trade to show salary dump returns.

Stewart trade was wasted opportunity.  So was Jax trade.  Still puzzled on Varland trade.  

7 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Are we talking about the same person? As of last week he was in the upper third of the roster by WAR (1.4), and put up enviable numbers, Time on the IL does not erase that. 

This is like saying Austin Martin is the best hitter on the Twins because he's batting .400. The guy has played in like 4 games, it's irrelevant. 

Wake me up when Stewart does something. Ten bucks says he's out of the league by 2027. No big loss whatsoever for this team. 

9 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

What is the context of your ranking? Is it player based? ? How are you rating the prospects coming back? Is it from similar trades? Is it your gut feeling?

Given the variables of the team and the unknowns, other than the Varland move (which feels like you graded based off of emotions) I can't see any move being less than a B or B-. Finances ruled the day. Teams saw that everyone was being moved so they started to lowball all the trade offers. If this started a week ago, the returns may have looked different.

The Duran trade only looks worse because of the Miller trade, otherwise everyone would be crowing about it.

Correa gets a B in a bubble, but will be an F by next spring when that money is not reinvested back into salary.

All of that being said, the common knowledge comment: We will not truly know the success or failure of these trades until 2028-2030.

And the miller trade is only good because of De Vries. The other guys were all lottery tickets. I seen somebody rank it and it only beat the Twins deal by a couple points. 

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins could have received much better prospects if they were willing to eat more money. They saved at least $13M on the expiring contracts. If they send cash to all of those teams, they'll get better players in return. If they had eaten all $115M remaining on Correa's contract they probably could have had 4 of Houston's top 10 prospects. We all know that this team doesn't have money to buy prospects like that.

But then you don’t trade him. They could offer to pay Altuves contract too and receive even more. Lol

My thoughts and hopes after the trade deadline:

1) Pohlads sell to a good new owner willing to embrace the fan base and reinvigorate the franchise;

2) A new TV deal in some form or another that helps the finances;

3) Ryan gets extended in the off season.  Otherwise, trade him for an excellent package;

4) The only thing I can come up with on the Stewart trade is that there is something very bad in his medicals;

5) I actually like the Varland trade package and like that this franchise finally has some LH starting pitchers in the pipeline;

6) Correa was becoming an emotional albatross on top of his salary.  He may very well excel in Houston, but that was never going to happen here based on his past performance;

I posted this before the trade deadline and I stand by the original comment:  I would rather watch young players try and possibly fail than waiver-wire wannabes flounder and trying to catch lightning in a bottle. I think all fans are more forgiving of young players trying to make the jump to the majors and enjoy rooting for the rookies.  LET'S GO!

P.S.  The only REAL hope for the Twins is a new CBA that institutes a real salary cap and floor, but that is probably a pipe dream.....

The Stewart trade was an F and the Varland trade is mind bogglingly ludicrous. F-.  The others got some value back but the biggest and best one was no more C4 GIDP. 

49 minutes ago, Tom Froemming said:

If fine with someone critiquing my analysis, but you're not gonna add any of your own? Not even gonna say which one of those you thought was accurate? Not gonna provide an opinion on the current trades? Nuthin'? 

I might not always be right, but at least I have the guts to put an opinion out there.

I posted to merely show that even someone who appears to follow the minors and prospects gets it very wrong.  I thought that it should be obvious which grade was correct.  Since you so politely  asked, or in spite of it, here is your answer. Dozier was coming off 3 great years and was having a down year, but the return was a D. Your reaction to me not saying which grade was accurate means that I made an incorrect statement. Duke was having an above average reliever year. The return was nothing. The only other grade you could argue you were correct n was Lance Lynn, only because it got rid of Lance Lynn. As far as the prospects go, that was a D return 

10 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

Those "fairly cheap" veterans are still more expensive than Varland.  And it's not like his trade value was vanishing at the deadline.  In fact, he could easily have had more value at future deadlines if he spent 2026 establishing himself as a closer, which I believe he has the stuff and mentality to do.  They acted as if this was their last chance to recoup value on him

We're just going to have to agree to disagree on Roden.  I think that's an incredibly optimistic percentage that assumes no future development on Varland's end

Isn’t it also incredibly optimistic to think Varland might be the next Duran??

Most of it was a complete salay dump, probably requested or prompted by the new prospective owners. 

The point was to ease the burden of the ever increasing value and paychecks of the pitchers and players. Arbitration is contingent on the players performance and value, Duran and Jax probably along would be upwards of $15M. The returns less than $2M with high upside. If you look at it in this prospective then it's all an A or B in return. 

I don't like trading Stewart and Varland though. Those could have been our closers.

7 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

They needed to trade at least one of Correa, Lewis, or Lee. 

Also, Luke Keaschall looks like a really nice player. Kudos to the scouts who originally put eyes on him, and kudos to the front office for accelerating him through the minors—Keaschall was clearly ready for the challenge. They did the same fast promotion track with Luis Arraez. 

Reminds me of another rookie second baseman who came up in the 90s who looked really good. No, not Todd Walker, I am talking about Chuck Knoblauch…

I agree with tony&rodney that I would have liked to know if there was a plan going into the deadline, or if they just got caught up in the moment. Maybe packaging Duran with Bader with a very good minor leaguer or one of the back end MLB starters, can get you Painter. I don’t how good Painter is but the board seemed to like him. Instead, they traded Duran and Bader to the same team separately. Maybe the outfielder from the Bader trade is the skill corner outfielder they are lacking. I would have extended Bader with the Twins, understanding that his hitting will revert. Keaschall, Bader, plus a healthy Lewis and Buxton, and suddenly the 2026 team would look quicker up the middle in the field and on the bases. 

Painter was not available.

Varland is arguably their best trade.  Shame on you for being so provincial.

You think they traded Varland for any other reason than the return?

5 hours ago, Tom Froemming said:

If fine with someone critiquing my analysis, but you're not gonna add any of your own? Not even gonna say which one of those you thought was accurate? Not gonna provide an opinion on the current trades? Nuthin'? 

I might not always be right, but at least I have the guts to put an opinion out there.

That Brian Dozier trade turned out better than expected. Smeltzer was a useful 14th pitcher on a 13 man staff, Forsythe held down 2nd the rest of the year and Raley did some stuff just not for us.  Dozier didn’t do much after getting traded.

12 hours ago, BrokenCompass said:

This is like saying Austin Martin is the best hitter on the Twins because he's batting .400. The guy has played in like 4 games, it's irrelevant. 

Wake me up when Stewart does something. Ten bucks says he's out of the league by 2027. No big loss whatsoever for this team. 

By this logic, we should have traded Buxton, as well...

10 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

They needed to trade at least one of Correa, Lewis, or Lee. 

Also, Luke Keaschall looks like a really nice player. Kudos to the scouts who originally put eyes on him, and kudos to the front office for accelerating him through the minors—Keaschall was clearly ready for the challenge. They did the same fast promotion track with Luis Arraez. 

Reminds me of another rookie second baseman who came up in the 90s who looked really good. No, not Todd Walker, I am talking about Chuck Knoblauch…

I agree with tony&rodney that I would have liked to know if there was a plan going into the deadline, or if they just got caught up in the moment. Maybe packaging Duran with Bader with a very good minor leaguer or one of the back end MLB starters, can get you Painter. I don’t how good Painter is but the board seemed to like him. Instead, they traded Duran and Bader to the same team separately. Maybe the outfielder from the Bader trade is the skill corner outfielder they are lacking. I would have extended Bader with the Twins, understanding that his hitting will revert. Keaschall, Bader, plus a healthy Lewis and Buxton, and suddenly the 2026 team would look quicker up the middle in the field and on the bases. 

They made it known the asking price of players.  They talked to Correa. They had a plan. The plan shifted once Jax asked for a trade. They did not get as good of return as Duran but they did honor the player request.  When you look at the journey of Varland as a starter he never got the chance to start regardless of outcome has Festa and Mathews. I suspect that the trade offer by Toronto was in their opinion a blown out of the water deal. They did not seem to value him.  

If the Phillies think Painter is going to be a front of the rotation starter the Twins probably would have to give up that level of talent in pitching. Them giving up Abel would indicate they did not foresee greatness. The same could be said for when Tampa gave up Ryan and the pitcher for Jax. The staff here probably has ideas on how to make these pitchers better, hence the trade.