Diverging Paths: San Diego Padres Nearing $3.4+ Billion Sale

[NYCTK]

The year is 2017. The San Diego Padres and the Minnesota Twins are each coming off of 94+ loss seasons, sitting in comparable media markets, each sitting with a similar $1B valuation, but are about to take very divergent paths. 

At first glance, one might assume the Twins were the ones being set up for success, headed into a season where they'd make the playoffs 2 of 3 seasons, winning 101 games in one of those seasons. However, with the patriarch of the Seidler family recognizing you can't take it with you, the Padres would soon become a free spending model of success. 

Having been a pretty poor franchise with little success to match it, the Padres would start to become reckless spenders starting in 2018, with a near doubling of payroll which continued to balloon towards it high point in 2023. And the people took notice, with pre-covid attendance being unrecognizable from their near league-leading attendance figures post-covid. 

Meanwhile, well, we know what happened with the Twins. Their fiscally conservative ownership also maxing out in 2023, $120 million below the Padres, and then...

As it turns out, while the Pohlads couldn't find anyone to meet their asking price of $1.6B for the Twins, thanks in large part to the fandom understandably having lost loyalty to a middling product with zero ownership commitment, the San Diego Padres fandom is alive and well, and apparently that's...good?

So good, we can just about put a dollar figure on it, and it's nearly $2,000,000,000. If only someone had told the nepo-baby business geniuses in charge of the Twins the very unknown adage "you have to spend money to make money". 

Less than a decade to turn a franchise from a mockery into a perennial contender. But only if the billionaires are comfortable spending money. Small price to pay in order to rehab the family name, one might argue. 

[Vanimal46]

It’s a fascinating case study. An ownership group (likely motivated by pending death) operated that sports is entertainment. Spending beyond the means of the market earned them loyalty from fans and packed the seats every game. 

Meanwhile, we have Pohlad version 4.0 now Tough Talking Tom who’s the same as the previous 3 versions. Claims they want a championship but will never, ever pay the price to become just that. Not even in 2019 when everything lined up for them to make a legitimate WS run. 

[NYCTK]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

It’s a fascinating case study.

It is. And who knows what the owners agree to with the new CBA, meaning this sort of spending spree might be unrepeatable. Other owners were allegedly very upset with Seidler (and Mets owner Steve Cohen). 

The CBA is not going to result in a salary cap, but the owners themselves are going to have quite an interesting fight amongst themselves that addresses this sort of team management. 

[nicksaviking]

Without trying to diminish how poorly the Pohlad's have run this franchise the last decade, 2017 was the year the Chargers moved to LA leaving the Padres the only pro sports team in town. A town which has a metro population of 3.3M.

So to be fair to the valuation, the Twins didn't have the same opportunity.

But to be extra fair, had the Vikings, Wolves and Wild all moved out, we all know the Pohlad's wouldn't have played at the top of the food chain to flip Minnesota into a baseball state like the Padres did.

 

[NYCTK]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Without trying to diminish how poorly the Pohlad's have run this franchise the last decade, 2017 was the year the Chargers moved to LA leaving the Padres the only pro sports team in town. A town which has a metro population of 3.3M.

So to be fair to the valuation, the Twins didn't have the same opportunity.

But to be extra fair, had the Vikings, Wolves and Wild all moved out, we all know the Pohlad's wouldn't have played at the top of the food chain to flip Minnesota into a baseball state like the Padres did.

 

I'll never buy into this reasoning all that, much. The spending didn't follow the revenue. The spending drove the revenue. Twins fans aren't avoiding Target Field because they might go to a Vikings game in 6 months.

But it probably does make it easier to more quickly draw the attention of the public, and hold it too.

[C-Gangster]

Wow! Awesome News for the padres

[Vanimal46]

11 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I'll never buy into this reasoning all that, much. The spending didn't follow the revenue. The spending drove the revenue. Twins fans aren't avoiding Target Field because they might go to a Vikings game in 6 months.

But it probably does make it easier to more quickly draw the attention of the public, and hold it too.

The greater MN market has proven they'll support a winner no matter the sport. We're so starved for championships and only women's basketball and hockey has been able to deliver. 

The Minnesota Women's Gophers basketball team made it to the sweet 16, and they packed Williams Arena more than the mens team has in years. 11k+ attendance (12k ish capacity) in their 2 NCAA tournament games. 

[Vanimal46]

For those unfamiliar, Williams Arena is called The Barn for a reason. A no frills former Field house that's coming up on its 100 year anniversary since it was built. 

[TheLeviathan]

It's crazy to me how often the same people who say "Spend money to make money" can ignore this advice in virtually every situation.  Investment reaps rewards when done well.

We've lost this thread on everything from public education to free agent baseball deals.  What a time to be alive.

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

It's crazy to me how often the same people who say "Spend money to make money" can ignore this advice in virtually every situation.  Investment reaps rewards when done well.

We've lost this thread on everything from public education to free agent baseball deals.  What a time to be alive.

Well, at least now we're in the AI age where a bunch of idiots in charge of things think they can now cut staff rather than investing in the business. 

The enshitification of everything must continue. 

Things are going to get a lot worse yet, before they some day get better. 

[tony&rodney]

Perhaps a small difference which could be impossible to quantify is how the two ownership groups view baseball. Seidler loved baseball. I'm not sure the Pohlads have ever felt totally committed to baseball or were die hard fans.

[Vanimal46]

San Diego sold for $3.8 billion. We’re gonna be stuck with the Pohlads forever…