Expectation vs. Reality: Comparing Preseason Projections to What's Happened So Far

Before the start of the season, I wrote up a series of Position Analysis articles previewing each position across the roster. As part of that exercise, I noted where FanGraphs projected the Twins to rank among 30 teams in Wins Above Replacement for each positional unit. 

With 25 percent of the season now in the books, I thought it would be interesting to compare those preseason projections to where the Twins stand at each position, as a way of reviewing how expectations have matched reality through the first quarter of the schedule. Here's a rundown of each position – you can click on the name of the position to look back at the full preview for a refresher on how they were viewed heading into the season.

Catcher
Preseason Projection: 15th out of 30
Through One Quarter: 4th out of 30

As I noted at the time, it was surprising to see the Twins forecasted as a middle-of-the-pack catching unit, with Ryan Jeffers coming off a breakout year and backed up by a good-glove veteran in Christian Vázquez. Much of the system's skepticism stemmed from expected regression for Jeffers, who was projected at just 1.8 fWAR. He's already reached that number in a quarter of the season, and is on an MVP-type pace. Vázquez once again isn't hitting, but is once again grading out extremely well defensively.

First Base
Preseason Projection: 26th out of 30
Through One Quarter: 15th out of 30

Much like at catcher, the Twins are headily outperforming expectations at first base, which were understandably very low coming into the season with declining veteran Carlos Santana and oft-injured Alex Kirilloff set to handle the position. It was trending this way for a while, with Minnesota ranking near the bottom of the league through the first few weeks, but they've inched up to the median thanks to Santana's awakening at the plate and solid work in the field.

Notably, more than one-third of the league (11 teams) have gotten sub-replacement level production at first base.

Second Base
Preseason Projection: 14th out of 30
Through One Quarter: 7th out of 30

FanGraphs projected a steep drop-off for the Twins at second, ranking them 14th after they finished third among MLB teams in 2023. The reason was the same as at catcher: anticipated regression from the starter, following an outrageously good season. Indeed, Edouard Julien has experienced some minor regression at the plate, with his 131 OPS+ as a rookie dropping to 121 so far in his sophomore campaign. But he's still been very good, and his better-than-expected defense has him on pace for a 4+ WAR season, placing the Twins comfortably in the top 10 at this position despite Kyle Farmer's negative contributions.

Third Base
Preseason Projection: 6th out of 30
Through One Quarter: 14th out of 30

This is one of the only positions where the Twins have been significantly worse than expected, and the reason is obvious: Royce Lewis was primed to be one of the best third basemen in the league, and he's been unavailable since Opening Day. In light of that fact, it's fairly impressive they've managed to hang around the middle of the league, and that owes in large part to José Miranda stepping up. Coming into the season, it wasn't clear that Miranda was really even in the picture anymore at third base, so his re-emergence has been one of the most pleasant surprises of the season so far.

Shortstop
Preseason Projection: 6th out of 30
Through One Quarter: 8th out of 30

With superstar Carlos Correa entering his age-29 season, the Twins were expected to be among the league's best at shortstop. They've nearly met their No. 6 projection so far, despite being without Correa for almost half of their games – a major credit to Willi Castro, who slashed .322/.369/.542 while Correa was on the injured list.

Left Field
Preseason Projection: 19th out of 30
Through One Quarter: 22nd out of 30

The Twins are right around they were expected to be in left field, though the way they've gotten there is not quite what we expected. Matt Wallner was lined up as the regular at the spot, but he made only three starts there. He quickly shifted to right field to cover for injured Max Kepler and was demoted by the time Kepler returned. Left field has mainly been handled by Kirilloff (13 starts) and Austin Martin (11), with Trevor Larnach, Manuel Margot and Castro also factoring in. Collectively, this group has been below-average, but not downright terrible.

Center Field
Preseason Projection: 7th out of 30
Through One Quarter: 6th out of 30

This might come as the biggest surprise as you read through these rankings; it certainly did for me. Byron Buxton has been mediocre offensively, but was providing a lot of impact on defense before going down with his knee injury, with FanGraphs rating him as the third-most valuable center fielder in baseball behind Julio Rodríguez and (guess who) Michael A. Taylor. Castro and Martin have also done a decent job in center.

Right Field
Preseason Projection: 10th out of 30
Through One Quarter: 12th out of 30

The Twins started out slowly here, but have been steadily climbing the rankings, with Kepler on an absolute tear over the past three weeks. Since returning from the injured list, Kepler leads the major leagues in both Wins Above Replacement and Win Probability Added. Combine that with the subpar production Minnesota got from right before he returned, and on the whole, you end up right around the fringe of the top 10.

Designated Hitter
Preseason Projection: 16th out of 30
Through One Quarter: 23rd of 30

The expectation coming into the season was that Kirilloff would get the lion's share of at-bats as the designated hitter. Instead, he's spent much more time in the outfield. Starts at DH were distributed pretty widely in April, but here in May, it's developed into a consistent rotation between Jeffers and Trevor Larnach. For as much power as the Twins have gotten throughout the lineup, they haven't gotten a ton from this position, which is slugging .363 with a sub-.300 on-base percentage.

Starting Pitcher
Preseason Projection: 6th out of 30
Through One Quarter: 7th out of 30

Many were surprised to see the Twins rotation so favorably projected by systems like FanGraphs, following an offseason where they lost Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. But these lofty projections were influenced by the premise that Minnesota's top three starters – Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober – present a 1-2-3 trio that few others can match. So far, that has proven to be exactly the case. Meanwhile, Chris Paddack has pitched well and Simeon Woods Richardson's positive contributions have erased the negative ones from Louie Varland. The Twins' rotation isn't quite elite overall, but it has been in the past three weeks – or, since Varland exited.

Relief Pitcher
Preseason Projection: 9th out of 30
Through One Quarter: 13th out of 30

Minnesota's bullpen was projected as one of the best in the league, until Jhoan Durán and Caleb Thielbar went down with injuries just before Opening Day, pushing them to the back end of the top third. They've more or less played to that level, with Durán returning just in time for Brock Stewart to go down. As was the case last year, Griffin Jax has thus far led the bullpen in fWAR.

So what have we learned here?
For one thing, kudos to the FanGraphs and their projection system! By and large, it has proven to be pretty accurate in its assessment of the 2024 Twins and how they stack up against the rest of the league. At six of 11 positional units, Minnesota is within four spots of their preseason forecast through a quarter of the season, even if they had to Jekyll-and-Hyde their way there. 

The other big takeaway is that the Twins are only severely underperforming in a couple of areas (3B/DH) that seem correctable in the long run. Meanwhile, they are overperforming at some positions (like catcher, first and second) in a way that feels more sustainable. It will be interesting to check back in at the halfway point and see how these rankings have evolved, but right now, this looks like a very balanced and strong team relative to the league.

What are your thoughts on where the Twins stand at the quarter mark, compared to what you expected coming into the season? What are your biggest surprises and disappointments? Let's hear from you in the comments.