Can Joe Mauer Rebound From Poor Start?

Isolating the source behind Mauer’s apparent decline is a lot like trying to figure out why they keep trying to open a dinosaur theme park on that island. There are multiple factors at play and we may never know the real reason. Aging, the rigors of catching, physical injuries and, of course, brain injuries have all likely played a role in his current status.

The concussion may be the easiest of the dots to connect considering his performance before and after the trauma, Mauer also managed to compile impressive second-half numbers in 2014 (.300/.388/.419 in his final 63 games) and battled an oblique injury in between. There is no denying that the concussion has had some effect on his game -- likely a significant one at that -- but the late season surge suggests that he is capable of playing through it. With that in mind, it is difficult to place the entire output decline this season squarely on the concussion.

Early last season, opponents began to align their outfield defenses to combat his opposite field tendencies. The Rays were one of the first organizations to shade him almost as an exclusively opposite field hitter, moving their right fielder within steps of where a center fielder should normally play. Mauer, who averaged .422 batting average on balls in play from 2009-2013 when going the other way on the fly or on a line, suddenly found that some of those hits were being taken away. This season, with more teams joining in the outfield shift game, even fewer liners and flies are becoming hits and his average going the other way is down nearly 100 points from his 2011-2014 totals.

It is somewhat surprising that it took until 2014 for teams to recognize Mauer’s radical split tendencies. After all, Fangraphs.com’s Dave Cameron was championing the use of the double shift (infielders shifting one way, outfielders the other). “So, stat guys working for MLB clubs reading this,” Cameron wrote over five years ago, “this is your challenge for 2010 – convince your manager to give the double-shift against Mauer a chance. Make him change his approach in order to get on base. Stop letting him beat you just because he’s so different than a normal hitter.”

What teams finally saw in the data was a clear-cut pattern from Mauer in which almost none of his batted balls were reaching the far right portion of the outfield. At least not in the air. Why waste time covering real estate that isn’t going to get touched? Teams were smart to hedge their bets on Mauer’s opposite field tendencies.

Although the strategy only directly stole about 10 hits away from his overall totals, the shifting may have also had a psychological effect on Mauer which influenced his performance. The alignment would challenge Mauer to attempt to adjust from his bread-and-butter (opposite field liners) and try to elevate pitches on the pull side. In May manager Ron Gardenhire told the media that he felt Mauer would start hitting the ball in different zones in order to reset the defense. By the time June rolled around last year, he had successfully transitioned away from dumping balls into left and hit a higher percentage of them up the middle. His average and on-base percentage began to ramp up again as the outfield defenses began to play straight-up.

This offseason Mauer and the Twins went to some length to correct the fly in the ointment to ensure the shift wouldn’t be an issue moving forward.

In spring training, mlb.com’s Rhett Bollinger wrote that Mauer was working tediously with Tom Brunansky to pull the ball better than he did last season. Last season he finished with a .224 batting average when pulling the ball -- the lowest among qualified hitters. As one of the game’s best pure hitters, this was a giant pox and addressing it would be a must. After honing his craft, Mauer came out in this season’s first month with a 36% pull rate which was the highest distribution of batted balls to his pull side over the last six years. And it paid off too. He has hit .310 with a .431 slugging percentage when hitting that direction, a sizable improvement over 2014.

But that may have also created new problems.

One of Mauer’s most glaring problems this season has been a lack of performance against fastballs. From 2010 to 2014, he has batted .359/.451/.541 against the heat. Even last season he managed to hit .318/.408/.421 off fastballs. In all cases, the vast majority of those numbers came from driving fastballs the other way. In 2015 he is batting just .256/.310/.353 on the cheese and has attempted to pull those pitches at a much higher rate (from 18% in 2014 to 26% in 2015).

What stands out the most in the data is that Mauer has increased the amount of times he chases after a fastball out of the zone -- particularly inside and off the plate:

This is interesting because it appears that either Mauer or the coaching staff moved him slightly away from the plate as well. This may be a response to the jump in cutters and fastballs in on the hands.

http://i.imgur.com/4DVFJe2.gif

The shifting and Mauer’s response somewhat explains the decline in batting average but it certainly does not explain not being able to drive the ball with authority. While a new approach at the plate could result in some iffy contact, Mauer has witnessed a precipitous drop in both his hard hit ball figures as well as his fly ball distances. That is likely due to either his physical state or his concussion. However his game plan at the plate as well as the defensive alignment may be partly responsible for the loss of extra base hits. From 2011 through 2014, Mauer feasted upon the left field line, using that to accumulate numerous doubles.

With teams stationing a fielder on the chalk and a newly kindled effort to pull the ball, Mauer has hit fewer balls to the left field line than he had in the past.

Now when he receives a fastball on the inner-half or middle-in, instead of inside-outing the pitch or punching it towards left as he did in the past, he is now trying to go up the middle or towards right. This has resulted in a spike in grounders and the defense’s infield middle shift has taken away a number of would-be base hits.

The notion that Mauer would become an power machine once he started to pull the ball more never manifested. While he has shown the ability to achieve a few more base hits on the right side, he still has not proven that he can elevate the ball in that direction and teams have opted to shade him to left to take away his extra base hit potential. Unless he can figure out a way to somehow drive the ball on the pull side, the tactics of yanking pitches has been detrimental to his overall approach. Even with the shaded defensive alignment, it may be in Mauer’s best interest to return to his strength of driving the ball the other way -- even if it means losing some hits in the process.