Byron Buxton is Worth It

I am not part of the brain trust, and I am sure the Twins employ and pay people a lot of money to make educated decisions like making Buck the DH for some set amount of time, but I just do not see the logic.  I mean are they also going to ask him to run at like 50%?  How about they tell him to not run any balls out at all?  Just swing and if it is a HR great, if not jog the 90 feet.  Tell him to never slide and just do not run at a speed that will require him to slide to stop.  Hell, lets not even ask him to take a lead off the base so he can avoid having to move quickly incase they try to pick him off.  Better yet, lets ask him to never swing, because he has actually got hurt in past when he fouled a ball off his foot.  Let him stand in there like the kid in Rookie of the Year.  Cower in the corner of the box with his back turned.  If he does sneeze and a swing comes out, walk to next base and if the ball is in the in the air just walk to dug out.  We should have him go up in full catchers gear when he bats, and put on boxing gloves so his hands do not get hurt if he is hit by a pitch.  He should not be in on deck circle either, and lets get him a golf cart to get to the batter box so he does not twist and ankle walking.  Can anyone think of another way to decrease his value to the team but make sure he will stay healthy?  Oh when not playing lets make sure we hire an assistant that does all his packing, one player once cut his thumb closing a suitcase, and make sure someone carries his bags every where too.  

Is there any evidence that cold weather contributed to any of his injuries?  Is he an iguana?  Just based on offensive stats, Buc is ranked between the 50-60th batter in MLB last year, and the confetti still hasn’t hit the floor on these forums. So happy!  Players with similar HR, BA and RBI numbers:  Matt Chapman, Cal Raleigh, Seth Brown, Patrick Wisdom, and Marcell Ozuna. Granted, most of those guys are “right there” in the MVP voting and are sure HOF candidates, but most of them are probably cheaper too. I’ve been saying it since we got him:  Taylor is the starting CF this year. 

No doubt that Buxton is a dynamic player and I hope he can move past the injured often phase of his career. 

The beginning of a season is for maximum optimism - we should hope for the best.

A reality lingers, however, and the production per year is not very good objectively. This will be a pivotal year for Buck.

7 hours ago, rv78 said:

I find it ironic that the Twins have decided they can't let him play in CF becasue they don't want to lose his offense. Yet they keep and allow Kepler to play mainly for his defense, (because he has become really bad offensively), and they go out and get one of the worst hitters from 2022, Joey Gallo to add to their outfield, which means again they only acquired him for his defense, and they got Taylor who is right-handed, same as Buxton, so a platoon with him doesn't make sense, and again a defense-first type player. But Buxton, who is probably the premier defensive player in all of baseball is not going to be used for defensive purposes, even though he too has become in your own words, "an all or nothing hitter." Based on his past performance I would say the only value that Buxton provides over other outfielders that can hit for decent average and some power is his defense, but the Twins have chosen to throw that value down the toilet in the hopes he doesn't get plunked by a pitch or hurt a knee running the bases. (His last 2 injuries were not from playing defense).

Kepler is still being used because, even though he may not be what we hope for offensively, nobody else has done what's needed to take the spot away from him.  Buxton is not being used defensively, NOW.  That could change.  As could someone else show enough stick to take away Kepler's spot.  Hasn't happened yet.

9 hours ago, Mike h said:

You say Buxton is projected to be the Twins best hitter this year. Sad to say, you may be right. Only because the lineup is so weak.

For all the love Buxton gets from the Twins you'd think he is a sure fire hall of famer. I don't get it. He tries hard. He plays hard. His teammates like him. When he connects the ball goes a long way. But, bottom line, results are just average. He'll never win a batting championship or even come close. Home run champion? No. RBI? No. Silver Slugger? No. Gold Glove? Yes. Can he carry this team to a championship? No. 

On many teams Buxton would bat in the bottom portion of the lineup, which is where he belongs. Nineth, actually. That way, if he does get on base, you've got his speed in front of the best hitters. At any rate, he should not bat 1-4, at least not unless he picks up his bat to ball skills.

If Buxton is truly our best hitter, then I'm looking for a third place finish, or worse. Sorry fans, that's just my opinion. And I hope I'm wrong.

Isn’t there data supporting the possibility that he was an above average hitter last year? I think maybe 37% above average. Heck of a nine hole. 

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

No doubt that Buxton is a dynamic player and I hope he can move past the injured often phase of his career. 

The beginning of a season is for maximum optimism - we should hope for the best.

A reality lingers, however, and the production per year is not very good objectively. This will be a pivotal year for Buck.

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

No doubt that Buxton is a dynamic player and I hope he can move past the injured often phase of his career. 

The beginning of a season is for maximum optimism - we should hope for the best.

A reality lingers, however, and the production per year is not very good objectively. This will be a pivotal year for Buck.

This is just a question. In what way is this a pivotal year for Buxton? 

7 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I think you nailed it. Here's his stats for the last four years: 

On a per-162 basis, those are great numbers from a full-time DH.

We recognize he's not going to play 162, however. But rather than considering that he averaged 70 games per year in this time period, a better average is about 83 games, given that it's only 3.37 seasons because of COVID.  

After 92 games last season, start the year with a pattern that shoots for 108 games this year (two of every three games). Start with the pattern of a full-time DH, gradually into CF as health allows. 

What I'm not understanding is that you state, "Start with the pattern of a full-time DH, gradually into CF as health allows." Generally as the season goes on a players health deteriorates instead of getting healthier. And with Buxtons history. I don't understand how anyone can realistically expect him to play in more than 100 games in any capacity. It would be great to see him play in your 108 game scenario, but I see a lot of posters suggesting 140 games and that's just not realistic

5 hours ago, Reptevia said:

Is there any evidence that cold weather contributed to any of his injuries?  Is he an iguana?  Just based on offensive stats, Buc is ranked between the 50-60th batter in MLB last year, and the confetti still hasn’t hit the floor on these forums. So happy!  Players with similar HR, BA and RBI numbers:  Matt Chapman, Cal Raleigh, Seth Brown, Patrick Wisdom, and Marcell Ozuna. Granted, most of those guys are “right there” in the MVP voting and are sure HOF candidates, but most of them are probably cheaper too. I’ve been saying it since we got him:  Taylor is the starting CF this year. 

Poor comparison - other than BA your looking at counting numbers & not factoring in the difference in AB's. For example - 

Matt Chapman hit 27 HR's in 538 AB's. Buxton hit 28 HR's in 340 AB's. A better comparison might use something like OPS+.

2022 OPS+
Buxton - 135
Chapman - 115
Raleigh - 122
Brown - 116
Wisdom - 102
Ozuna - 89

Buxton was more productive offensively then every player you listed.

24 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

 

This is just a question. In what way is this a pivotal year for Buxton? 

I think if Byron can only play 40-50 games in the outfield again his value will have been greatly diminished. The Twins did well to sign MAT to play centerfield in case of any problems with Buxton, but the team will need a guy out there going forward if Buck looks to be transitioning to just a DH. So, I'm hoping that Buxton can get back on the grass and play much more than he has thus far in his career. There have been other players who have had a host of setbacks and then were able to play on a consistent basis.

6 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I don't understand how anyone can realistically expect him to play in more than 100 games in any capacity. It would be great to see him play in your 108 game scenario, but I see a lot of posters suggesting 140 games and that's just not realistic

This is an issue - the number of times Buxton can play. I don't believe we are privy to the physical challenges of Byron Buxton at this time. Yes, he has had some knee and hip injuries, but many players have returned and played on after a full recovery. Byron has missed games for so many reasons and some of those reasons are not exactly recurring problems. There is plenty of history and speculation, much of which we could say makes sense from what we do know, but the situation will just need to play out until there is a definitive comment or decision that indicates that Buxton just cannot physically play on a regular basis and that his days on the grass are over. For now, the Twins are easing Buxton into the season. I think we will have more of an idea by mid May. 

I wonder if there has been any consideration to moving Buxton to RF. It is so much less stress on the body.

Some MLB teams already employ a top-speed RF who would certainly be good-to-great in CF, such as Ronald Acuna Jr, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Dalton Varsho, Kyle Tucker, Adolis Garcia, and soon, Fernando Tatis Jr. Many of these RFers are played there with the explicit reason of keeping them healthy. 

15 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Kepler is still being used because, even though he may not be what we hope for offensively, nobody else has done what's needed to take the spot away from him.  Buxton is not being used defensively, NOW.  That could change.  As could someone else show enough stick to take away Kepler's spot.  Hasn't happened yet.

Reason#1, WHY Kepler hasn't been replaced is because the Twins didn't make it a priority. There were plenty of options in Free Agency to sign a BETTER outfielder. Instead they chose to acquire one than is an even worse hitter than Kepler, Joey Gallo. Together they are costing the Twins $19.5M in 2023. That's a lot of money for 2 guys that strike out a ton and hit weak grounders to 2nd base. I would think for $19.5M they could have found 1 outfielder that could be better than both of them combined, (And then use Wallner, Garlick as backups).  Reason#2, Kepler would have to be traded and there probably weren't any takers, which is the real proof of what he is worth, (less than his $8.5M), or released which means the Twins would get no return at all and they are not in the habit of eating their bigger contracts for nothing in return.

On 3/26/2023 at 12:49 PM, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Good question. His numbers are about the same. 

Showed more power when playing in the field but drew more walks when he DH-ed. Last yr 2022 was really the only season he was DH so it's the only season I looked at, and maybe too small a sample to draw a conclusion. By the way you can go to a stat site and search by 'splits' and Baseball Reference has other good ones you can look at

. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=buxtoby01&year=2022&t=b

Thank you for the info. And you are right that there was not much difference. I would hope that because he is healthier this year that the stats will improve. 

9 hours ago, rv78 said:

Reason#1, WHY Kepler hasn't been replaced is because the Twins didn't make it a priority. There were plenty of options in Free Agency to sign a BETTER outfielder. Instead they chose to acquire one than is an even worse hitter than Kepler, Joey Gallo. Together they are costing the Twins $19.5M in 2023. That's a lot of money for 2 guys that strike out a ton and hit weak grounders to 2nd base. I would think for $19.5M they could have found 1 outfielder that could be better than both of them combined, (And then use Wallner, Garlick as backups).  Reason#2, Kepler would have to be traded and there probably weren't any takers, which is the real proof of what he is worth, (less than his $8.5M), or released which means the Twins would get no return at all and they are not in the habit of eating their bigger contracts for nothing in return.

They were unable to replace, via the farm, a corner outfielder that the fan base has deemed highly replaceable.  Does not speak well of said farm.

I'll never get the argument that having a guy stand in front of 99 mph fastballs, swinging the bat, checking his swing, running the bases, slide, etc...is going to protect him from injury.

Do you reduce the odds? With Buxton? How much? If management really believed this was significant, wouldn’t they have risked more than 8 PA at DH this spring (with 5 K)? As is, you're taking a guy who has huge value defensively, taking all that value away, and making him a DH where his value will be slightly (probably, but not definitely) above average in that role.

What I would expect, is for Buxton to DH against lefties...that way, you're not losing as much OFFENSE in CF with Taylor. Against righties, I would expect him to play mostly CF (occasionally rest, occasionally DH)

Instead, it appears we'll aim for mediocrity.