BREAKING: Twins Agree to One-Year Deal With Outfielder Harrison Bader

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Who would you rather have rostered as the short-side platoon partner - Bader or Martin? We know they will roster someone for that role. I could find-and-replace Bader with Martin in your complaint and it would be just as valid. At least Bader can provide value by catching the ball.

Yes, it is disappointing that they insist on having this role. Why wouldn't we want them to improve the personnel they use for that role?

If Emmanuel Rodriguez can't play well enough in AAA to make management think he's better than Harrison Bader, then he's probably best served spending the whole season in AAA. I remember just how bad Buxton was in his first season when they pulled him up from Double-A.

I don't want a platoon partner. 

But even so, it's not Bader vs Martin. It's Bader vs Castro/Martin/Helman/Keirsey/E-Rod/whatever is floating around on the waiver wire. The inflexibility they are causing the roster for a guy who can't help offensively is the issue.

And why are the Twins paying him more than Grichuk, Laureano and Hayes? They are all better hitters than him. It almost seems like the Twins once again waited too long and then found themselves in a bind and got taken advantage of because of it.

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

No, I don't care to. The lineup is obviously fungible. 

But like I said, even if you believe he's the starting LF now (which I do not) this team is STILL improved from this morning. 

So, worse than Bader. 

 

You don't care to because changing Bader out of that lineup means putting in a younger, unproven player and suggesting that's a better option than starting Bader. Just like others of us have been suggesting. If it's so improved then why wouldn't you be happy to believe he's the starting LFer?

7 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

That’s about exactly where 2023 Jurickson Profar ranked as well.  

We are due for some lightning in a bottle.  I like it, even if it seems a bit expensive. 

If he turns into Profar that'd be great. How much you willing to bet that's where this goes? Does anyone really think that's a realistic outcome here? 

12 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't want a platoon partner. 

But even so, it's not Bader vs Martin. It's Bader vs Castro/Martin/Helman/Keirsey/E-Rod/whatever is floating around on the waiver wire. The inflexibility they are causing the roster for a guy who can't help offensively is the issue.

And why are the Twins paying him more than Grichuk, Laureano and Hayes? They are all better hitters than him. It almost seems like the Twins once again waited too long and then found themselves in a bind and got taken advantage of because of it.

And it's not just the outfield prospects that are options. Isn't that the value of Castro? He can be that Bader role and you can add Lee/Keaschall/Eeles/whatever in field prospect you want to the list, too.

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

It's not that I don't think you have a point.  Sure, they could have just DFAed those players which means they have to be replaced by a deadline trade.  The cost is prospect capital and paying the salary for two players.  That's really steep which is why is suspect it's somewhat rare with teams in the bottom half of revenue.  It's also not at all uncommon for players to bounce back like Farmer did in the second half last year and Kepler the year before.  

How different did the first half of last season look for Lewis and Castro.  They looked great the first half and sucked the 2nd half.  Vazquez had a wRC+ of 26 first half and 99 the 2nd half.  Jose Miranda was 133 for the 1st half and 93 the 2nd half.  Kyle farmer 67 1st half 115 2nd half and there are many other examples throughout MLB. 

I could have seen dumping Margot to give Kiersey or Hellman a shot given the long-term upside of investing that playing time but I also understand teams not discarding players like trash.

My point is that they don't have to fill it with a FA like Bader or a trade. Let the young guys try. I'm arguing against these types of $2-8 or 10 million veterans that don't provide more than a collection of minimum salaried guys can provide. Take all those below average to (at best) average vets and use their salaries on 1 bigger, actual needle moving vet and let the kids fill the below average to average role for far less money, and no prospect capital in trade. It's what Cleveland does. They dump their veteran underperformers and they cycle through their young guys until they find one that's clicking that year. Then if they aren't clicking the next year they start cycling more young guys.

And there are many other examples throughout MLB of guys who don't bounce back in the 2nd half. Like Kepler for the entire rest of his career or Margot last year or Gallo in his 1 year with us. Of course guys can bounce back, but how many games are they costing in the meantime? And how many more if they don't? If Farmer and Margot weren't both horrible in the first half do the Twins win 3 more games? 1? 5? And Castro is one of the guys in the range of veteran contracts that I'd be happy to move to free up money for a better player. If they cleared out Castro, Vazquez, Paddack, and Bader they could afford a star. I'd rather have the star.

Teams do discard players like trash. All the time. The Twins are an outlier in keeping these underperforming vets all year. They got Tonkin last year because multiple other teams discarded him. My, and other's, argument is that if you rely on young guys to fill these roles then you don't have to discard them at all. You just option them and bring up the next one. And it saves you millions to go spend on an actual needle mover. Bader, Margot, Farmer, etc. are all "floor setters." They're guys the front office hopes keeps them competitive and from completely falling apart. But none of them are "ceiling movers." They don't provide any realistic upside. It's planning to be an 80-85 win team and hoping to catch lighting in a bottle. I don't want that. I want guys with realistic upside even if it increases the variance. I'll take a 75-95 win range over an 80-85 win range. 

14 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I would normally completely agree with you but I just don't think we have that young guy to play CF. Keirsey strikes me more as a "floor setter" at best, not a guy that's going to increase the team's upside. Emma is at least a year away from a regular job although it would be great to see him come up and get his feet wet this season. I agree that you got to "let the young guys play" and strongly advocate for at least 500 PAs for all of Wallner, Larnach, and Miranda, and 300+ PAs for Julien, Lee and Martin. Unfortunately, we saw what would happen if we used our current group to replace Buxton for any significant period last year and the result was not pretty. It's not that none of these guys have the potential to hit better than Bader, it's that none of these guys can play a competent CF. CF and SS are the spots where you have to have a competent glove man so I'm okay with this signing, What I wouldn't be okay with is Bader taking a lot of at-bats away from Wallner or Larnach. Bader will take some until those two guys prove they can hit left-handed pitching, and you do have to give them a chance. I see Bader as much more a traditional fourth outfielder who plays two or three days a week to give Buxton a couple days off/DH days, and hit left-handed starting pitching,

If Emma is a year away they should trade him immediately. His value will never be higher and he's not the piece they want if he's a year away. And, I agree, Keirsey is a "floor setter." But he costs 6 million less than "floor setting" Bader. Just like Zebby costs 7 million less than Paddack and Elias Diaz costs 6.5 million less than Vazquez. My point is that "floor setting" should be done by people making significantly less than these types of guys so that their money can be spent on "ceiling movers."

Keirsey is a competent glove. So is Emma. How are they going to prove they can hit left-handed pitching when Bader and Martin are taking all those PAs? And, right now, I'd argue very strongly that Bader isn't taking away PAs from them, but he's getting more than them. Because he won't be platooned, and he's currently the starting LFer with Larnach at DH. So he'll start every game Larnach and Wallner do while also getting starts against lefties. Unless you think Lee or some other young guy is starting over Bader. And if he can't beat out Lee, Julien, Helman, or Keirsey on paper right now what is he really bringing to the table? Either he's better than those guys and he's starting or he's not better than them so we paid over 6 million for a guy who they could cover with minimum salary guys. Which is it? Margot was a "traditional fourth outfielder," too. There's no such thing on this team. They're all key players who will get real at bats. You better be prepared to use them as true starters because they will be at some point. 

15 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It was 150 plate appearances with a .213 BABIP. I'm not sure how much stock to put in his 2024 splits for a couple of reasons. Unless someone can find evidence to convince me otherwise, I'm going to weight his career splits much more heavily.

4 of his 7 non-2020 seasons had him hitting better against righties than lefties. It wasn't just 2024. In the other 3 years his stats against lefties were insane, but more often than not he's had reverse splits.

40 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Whose your DH? I'm guessing larnach....

Not that I wanted to, but I'd have rather signed a DH. JD Martinez and Justin Turner may be cooked, but at least a guy like that MIGHT solve that yearly problem of never getting hits with guys on base.

38 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I don't think Bader is a big step up for the Twins (hope I'm wrong), but I agree that the idea he's "blocking" Emma just doesn't make a lot of sense. Could Emma come up this year and get his feet wet? Absolutely, and I hope it happens. He is not ready to break camp on the 26 man roster and needs to show more before he's given a run in MLB playing 5 days a week. And if he's not going to play 5 days a week, he belongs in the  Minors playing every day  and showing he can tear up AAA pitching, get his AAA SO % down to at least 25% or below, and stay healthy for half a season. Emma was never the answer to "who will be the 4th OF/backup CF from April to July"? He wasn't even one of the multiple choices. Bader replaces Keirsey or Martin and moves Castro back to 2B/UTL. 

As for the second half of the year, I predict that injuries will give some AAA OFs a shot at playing time.  If Emma is raking at AAA, he's likely to get a shot. If he isn't, he won't. I understand the argument that once they pay Bader 6m+ he stays for the year.  New ownership may change that.  

Your first paragraph actually argues that neither Emma nor Bader would be 4th OFers. If Castro is at 2B/util who is your starting OF and DH? I'd bet Larnach is your DH and you don't have anyone in LF but Martin, Helman, or Keirsey.