3 Recent Extensions That Could Compare to a Possible Jose Berrios Extension

I would offer 5/60 and be willing to go more. They can get this done. There is a number that will get this done. It doesn’t need to be team friendly.

By the time he is a free agent they might have to pay 50 million for those last two years and the qualifying offer might be over 20 in three years.

Pay up now.

5 for $60 would be acceptable.  For the foreseeable future he is the Ace of the staff.  If the Twins ever figure out how to pair him with a true #1 he would be a good #2.  Get it done. 

Problem is, Berrios has not yet showed that he is the ace we hoped he'd be. No huge innings pitched, no ridiculous ERA, no particular area where he has really dominated. Instead, he has looked like a guy on the edge of dominating, but not quite. He's had spells where he looked dominant, but then his delivery would flatten out or something, and hitters would bash him around. 

Sorry, but on most MLB teams, Berrios would be a middle rotation guy, not the "ace." This team still lacks a real stud horse. Somebody needs to step up this season, or management should consider a major deal to bring one in. 

Name 5 teams where Berrios would clearly be a middle rotation guy. For your convenience, MLB.com just listed every team's rotation.

With what transpired this off-season when trying to lure free agent front-line pitching here, I'd do any of those extensions yesterday to keep Berrios here long term

5 years for 75 mill would be worth it .. That's probably what he would get paid if he was a free agent this year. But the only reason I would pay it is because our starting pitching staff is our achilles heel right now. 

This is the best offer listed in this article so far. But tbh if Berrios were an FA this off season you couldn't sniff him for this price. Wheeler got 5/118. This is the kind of deal Berrios would get as an FA. Easily. Granted he's not going to get 24 mil per season for the next 3 arb campaigns. But on the other hand he's not going to sign away his first 2 prime FA seasons away cheaply either. That's what's being suggested when people throw out  5/60 contracts.

Should he continue to progress as he has every season in his career thus far he should make around 30mil plus through the arb process. He then becomes an FA a year younger then Wheeler was when he hit the open market. IF Berrios stays healthy he has some huge paydays ahead of him.

This is the best offer listed in this article so far. But tbh if Berrios were an FA this off season you couldn't sniff him for this price. Wheeler got 5/118. This is the kind of deal Berrios would get as an FA. Easily. Granted he's not going to get 24 mil per season for the next 3 arb campaigns. But on the other hand he's not going to sign away his first 2 prime FA seasons away cheaply either. That's what's being suggested when people throw out  5/60 contracts.

 

Should he continue to progress as he has every season in his career thus far he should make around 30mil plus through the arb process. He then becomes an FA a year younger then Wheeler was when he hit the open market. IF Berrios stays healthy he has some huge paydays ahead of him.

I think you are right. Though 5/60 seems like a reasonable progression in the Nola and Martinez contracts the Twins will need to go higher. There is a number that Berrios will accept to get some security in case of injury and the Twins can get two more years. The 30 million in arb seems right. I had the Twins starting with another 30 but maybe it will take 40 or 45.

Problem is, Berrios has not yet showed that he is the ace we hoped he'd be. No huge innings pitched, no ridiculous ERA, no particular area where he has really dominated. Instead, he has looked like a guy on the edge of dominating, but not quite. He's had spells where he looked dominant, but then his delivery would flatten out or something, and hitters would bash him around. 

 

Sorry, but on most MLB teams, Berrios would be a middle rotation guy, not the "ace." This team still lacks a real stud horse. Somebody needs to step up this season, or management should consider a major deal to bring one in. 

392.2 IP in 18-19. That's good for 8th in the AL both seasons. Top 10 in 2019 in ERA, ERA+ and FIP. What's he supposed to do? 

Some team will be happy to call him their Ace in 2023 and pay him 30mil plus.

I would go a little higher then Seth's estimate maybe

Arb1 = 4.3 million

Arb 2 = 9 million

Arb 3 = 13 million

FA 1 = 17.5 million

So a 4 year 45 - 46 million with 5th year option of 17 million with 4 - 5 million buyout. It's a little on the high side but the numbers are where they need to be for an extension.

He is not going to take any of these lower deals. No way. I would go for this, right now:

2020 = 7 

2021 = 16

2022 = 16 

2023 = 16

2024 = 14 (option), 5 (buyout)

5 years/60 guaranteed

Name 5 teams where Berrios would clearly be a middle rotation guy. For your convenience, MLB.com just listed every team's rotation.

Houston - Velander Grienke Berrios

Dodgers - Kershaw Buehler Berrios

Washington - Scherzer Strasburg Berrios

Cleveland - Bieber Clevinger Berrios

Mets - deGrom Syndergaard Berrios

Houston - Velander Grienke Berrios

Dodgers - Kershaw Buehler Berrios

Washington - Scherzer Strasburg Berrios

Cleveland - Bieber Clevinger Berrios

Mets - deGrom Syndergaard Berrios

Two of the five are close but debatable. Berrios was dead even with Clevinger and Syndergaard last season. I disagree with the Dodgers comp. He was clearly better than Kershaw last year and, with health, will be better this year. There are only two clearly better. 

Two of the five are close but debatable. Berrios was dead even with Clevinger and Syndergaard last season. I disagree with the Dodgers comp. He was clearly better than Kershaw last year and, with health, will be better this year. There are only two clearly better. 

By what measure? Kershaw 178.1 innings pitched, 145 hits, 41BB, 189K, 1.04 WHIP 3.03 ERA.

Problem is, Berrios has not yet showed that he is the ace we hoped he'd be. No huge innings pitched, no ridiculous ERA, no particular area where he has really dominated. Instead, he has looked like a guy on the edge of dominating, but not quite. He's had spells where he looked dominant, but then his delivery would flatten out or something, and hitters would bash him around. 

 

Sorry, but on most MLB teams, Berrios would be a middle rotation guy, not the "ace." This team still lacks a real stud horse. Somebody needs to step up this season, or management should consider a major deal to bring one in. 

It's not really a "problem," as no one in the thread or article is suggesting we should pay him like an ace, or that he'd demand it. 5/60 is middle of the rotation money, and probably right around what Berrios deserves at this point. Maybe a bit more if you're willing to be on his age & remaining upside.

Two of the five are close but debatable. Berrios was dead even with Clevinger and Syndergaard last season. I disagree with the Dodgers comp. He was clearly better than Kershaw last year and, with health, will be better this year. There are only two clearly better. 

I would trade Berrios straight up for either Clevinger or Syndergaard.

I would trade Berrios straight up for either Clevinger or Syndergaard.

Yeah, I would do that for Clevinger. His problem last year was health - back muscle strain. I thought it was shoulder-related, which I'm always afraid of. 

Berrios is right at Syndergaard's level and two years younger. At that point, it's a matter of opinion, not one clearly better.

We have him locked up for the next 3 years. Arb numbers will be about $25M. It is not a crisis if we keep doing this. Might take 5/80 to get those next 2 years. Will he be worth $27.5M per season in years 4 and 5?

I know - maybe he will be. 

Now that 2020 is what it is:

2021: 16 million

2022: 17 million

2023: 18 million (FA 1)
2024: 19 miilion (FA 2)
2025: 15 million (option) (5 million buyout)

5 years/75 (with buyout)
5 years/85 (with option)

Add yearly $1 million incentives for 4.0 K/BB ratio
 

Now that 2020 is what it is:

 

2021: 16 million

2022: 17 million

2023: 18 million (FA 1)

2024: 19 miilion (FA 2)

2025: 15 million (option) (5 million buyout)

 

5 years/75 (with buyout)

5 years/85 (with option)

 

Add yearly $1 million incentives for 4.0 K/BB ratio

 

I don't believe specific performance incentives are allowed under the current CBA.

Playing time incentives are, as are award bonuses, but not performance incentives.