Twins Video
Rocco Baldelli comes into Spring Training with a relatively clear plan for his outfield. The hope would be that there is more consistency out there this season, and that starts in center field, with Byron Buxton. While Max Kepler has been in right field for the better part of the past nine years, the left fielder is new.
Probable Starter: Matt Wallner
After playing in the 2022 American League Futures Game, the Forest Lake native made his big-league debut for an 18-game cameo to end the season. It took a bit for the Twins to promote him during 2023, but the 2019 first-round pick forced their hand as much as he could at Triple-A.
Wallner ultimately posted a .927 OPS across 67 games last season for the Saints. While there is plenty of swing-and-miss to his game, the exceptional .403 OBP provided a significant amount of confidence for the next level. In 76 games with the Twins, Wallner found that success, to the tune of an .877 OPS with an equally impressive .370 OBP.
Presumably taking over for 2023 starter Trevor Larnach, Wallner will be tasked with playing a high level of defense. He posted a -2 DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) and OAA (Outs Above Average) in a small 308-inning sample, but the arm has always been his calling card. With two outfield assists in just his first 57 starts, teams immediately could see the cannon that made him a solid starting pitcher in college.
If Wallner is going to remain at the big-league level and be a productive regular, working on the 31.5% strikeout rate is a must. Had he qualified, that would have been the fifth-highest total in the majors last year, and not far off from Brent Rooker’s leading 32.7%. It is a positive that Wallner drew walks 11% of the time, but there is room to improve upon a 28.7% chase rate and 15.4% swinging-strike rate (whiffs as a share of all pitches seen). Overall, the 65-game sample after mid-July was solid, but it included a few dreadful stretches. He can hold down the position, but the top depth behind him should make him earn it.
The Backups: Trevor Larnach, Willi Castro
The chief competition for Wallner will be the 2023 starter, Larnach. The 2018 first-round pick is a very similar player to Wallner, but he hasn't enjoyed the same kind of steady success we just saw from the younger slugger over any meaningful period. Larnach hasn’t had consistent opportunity, thanks in part to injuries, but he has also failed to show much of the promise expected from his skillset.
Across 188 big-league games, Larnach has only hit 20 homers. His .315 OBP isn’t enough to carry him, and a .385 SLG isn’t anywhere near what should be his ceiling. Larnach’s career 33.6% strikeout rate is a huge issue, and while he doesn’t chase quite as often as Wallner, he whiffs at about the same frequency. If he’s going to get what could be a final shot to make it work, figuring out a way to tap into the power potential is a must.
There’s almost no scenario in which Castro doesn’t make the Opening Day roster, but there shouldn’t be one in which he starts at any position, barring a failure to thrive for both Wallner and Larnach. After playing a pivotal role last season as a utility player, Castro will probably see some regression from the career-best 106 OPS+. He is just 27 years old, so there might be more to unlock, but his value is derived from being capable across the board, rather than being exceptional anywhere. If he does rise to yet another level, it'll be a pleasant surprise, but the emphasis will be on the second word of that phrase.
Waiting in the Wings: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., Kala'i Rosario
It’s pretty unlikely the Twins will bring Rodríguez up for his debut this season. Still, he is the only other corner outfielder on the 40-man roster (without putting Alex Kirilloff back in the grass). In 99 games at High-A last season, he posted a solid .863 OPS, but a .400 OBP heavily propped that up. The 134 strikeouts at that level don't advertise his big-league readiness, but his ability to take walks has always been exceptional.
Playing more than 100 games, staying healthy, and continuing the power surge as he hones in his approach at the plate is a must. Rodríguez may begin the season at Double-A, and despite being just 21 years old, a strong start would have him knocking on the major-league door by season’s end.
Additional options are relatively light, in that they aren’t ideal corner fits, and Minnesota doesn’t have much of a veteran presence to speak of at the Triple-A level. Martin is best utilized as a center fielder, where his speed can play up and there's less pressure on his bat to produce power. Keirsey is in a similar boat. He doesn’t have an immediate path to the parent club, not being on the 40-man roster, and the same rings true for Rosario, whom the Twins sent to the Arizona Fall League after last season and who thereupon paired with Aaron Sabato to lead the league in home runs. He’ll be at Double-A this year as a 21-year-old, and while the .832 OPS for Cedar Rapids was nice, it would be a modest surprise for him to even reach Triple-A in 2024.
With Wallner as the most likely starter and Larnach as his chief competition, can the 2023 rookie do enough to hold down the job? Will he take considerable strides forward in 2024 and reach new heights at the highest level? Those are the questions fans gathered down the left-field line at Hammond Park this spring can spend their time debating and discussing. Spring performance will inform playing-time decisions at this spot, even if it's unlikely to completely upend the Twins' plans.







Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now