2016 Roster Projections: The Outfielders (Part 1)

Danny Santana and Miguel Sano in the OF.

That's a mess.

I believe D. Santana will be the starting CF if Buxton doesn't win the job outright.

But I'd rather see Buxton stay with the Twins and split duties with Santana to get more MLB experience.

Left to right: Rosario, D. Santana and Sano starting, Arcia and Buxton on the bench with Nunez.  Could be better: could be worse.

"Max Kepler was the Twins minor league hitter of the year in 2015 when he finally had that breakout season we’ve all been hoping for".

In looking through Kepler’s numbers, he has some parallels to Hicks.  The Twins were really high on him and he never really produced like they expected. Than he had one good year (2012) and boom, he was on the team the next year.

Kepler had a decent 2012 but it was only 59 games.  Then he was pretty pedestrian in 2013 and 2014.  Now he had a great year last year (Better statistically than Hicks in 2012).  I just hope it isn’t like Hicks where we say, aha, we were right the whole time.  This is the guy we knew we had all along.  Now let’s give him a MLB roster spot.  I would hope we see another two months of dominance in AAA before handing him anything.

CF:  If the Twins believe Buxton needs more seasoning before handing him the job (frankly there is plenty of evidence supporting that position) it makes far more sense to put Rosario in CF than anybody else.  Santana "success" in 2014 wasn't in the field--it was as a hitter.  As a CF he was over-matched--throws off-line and circuitous routes.  Showcase his ability as an all-around OF and be prepared to trade him next year if Buxton "takes ownership" of CF.

RF/LF:  Clearly Sano will play someplace, but it's backa**ward to award major league jobs on the basis of "he's out of options".  I earnestly hope that ABW and/or Palka step-up and show that they are true sluggers so that one of them become a starting OF and provide another source of consistent power-hitting.  Kepler will likely become a more "rounded" type of player--and there will be two corner OFers in the line-up!  So, no need to worry about him.  You ask "well what about Rosario?"  (and others).  This is why executives get paid--to make the tough decisions.  Select the starters--and trade "the silver medalists" while they have considerable value.  Stockpiling "options" because an executive is afraid to make a mistake (or just needs a security "blankee") is destructive to the franchise.  Only nine are in the field, and talent can't be wasted on "options".  The "2nd place" talent must be exchanged for youth to maintain a constant reloading of talent.

I hope to see Buxton succeed like everyone else.  My ideal is going to be Buxton, Rosario, and Sano which I think is what the Twins are shooting for.  I'm hoping Walker can get his cup of coffee somewhere in here too.  Strikeouts suck, but I dig the longball and the run production.

I don't want to be negative on Kepler because he had an amazing year last year.  It seems that everyone is always looking for the regression year for all of these prospects coming up but it's never mentioned for Kepler.  Wouldn't he be due for this also.  If I look at it that way then Rosario would be due for that also, but I guess I'm just not banking on Kepler being ready just yet.  

Arcia once again appears to be the forgotten man here. I know he's out of options and shouldn't win a job because of that, but he can flat out hit. His defense is suspect at best, but he was hitting .276 when he was sent down last year and he is capable of approaching .300 with good power if he doesn't try to crush every pitch. I like his intensity and it appears he wants to be a leader. Terrible attitude in the minors last year, but I expect him to grow up a lot this year and live up to his talent. If Buxton doesn't stick I hope to see Rosario in CF and Sano and Arcia in the corners.

Twins fans have to be excited about the OF possibilities to start the season, but when Buxton and Kepler arrive for good, hopefully we can lock them in for a decade. I, too, am hoping ABW or Palka can produce their minor league numbers in the bigs. Can't wait for the season to start as I see us scoring a lot of runs.

I see the parallels but I don't know that they're entirely spot on. Kepler is different than every other prospect because he came from Germany and did not have the  background a typical prospect does - he had to learn a lot about the game. So it was expected that he would struggle some at first and then hopefully take a jump. 

 

Hicks was a first round pick overall who struggled for years and then took a jump. That's a horse of a different color - he was not expected to struggle as much as he did. His jump was also more suspicious because there isn't an easy explanation like there is for Kepler.

 

I also think it's important to take the person into perspective. Loved me some Hicks but he had difficulty with the emotional side of the game. That's not to blame him - I'm surprised more guys don't have issues with this. They're in their early 20s and they're dealing with pressures and publicity no other person their age deals with. So not blaming him but he had a tendency to magnify the bad and make it worse. I've seen and heard nothing similar about Kepler - scouts and Twins staff have been marveling for years (long before he took his jump) about his poise and his ability to handle the mental things that Hicks had trouble with initially.

That's not to say that Kepler may not struggle some and your suggestion that he gets some time in AAA is apt from a "prove it" perspective and from a service time perspective. But I just think it's important to notice that Kepler's jump was expected in a way that Hicks' wasn't and that Kepler's poise differentiates him from the Aaron Hicks Experience.

 

I don't know that Kepler's youth would have a huge impact.  Sure it was different than Hicks, but Kepler was playing in national tourney's as a 14 year old and signed as a 16 year old. So he had two additional years under the Twins watch from a training perspective, instruction, etc.  He effectively had two years of rookie league ball under his belt by the time Hicks was drafted as a high school player.

I could take fly balls in batting practice.  Doesn't make me a big league OF any more than it does Sano.  The guy has a chance to be a once in a generation type of talent with the stick in his hands.  Why take the chance of screwing with his offensive confidence by moving him from a position where he's played over 90% of his minor league games to a position he's never played before?  Move Plouffe to OF and let the perceived increase in versatility help improve his trade value for if / when we decide to move him. 

Jeez, I forgot about Arcia.  I have a feeling we'll see him traded, that's what seems to be floating around anyway.  If he does get traded, I'm hoping it's to an NL team, I could see him getting his feet under him someday and totally going off for 30-40 bombs.  Crazy streaky power.  Wouldn't be against seeing him in the OF for the Twins.  Maybe we can get a corner infield spot to open up somehow (maybe some kind of bi-lateral leg issue), move Sano to one of those, and fill his spot with Arcia. 

It's not Kepler's youth we're talking about, we're talking about experience. Those two aren’t the same.

Hicks grew up playing in CA, home of the best youth baseball competition the world has to offer. His dad played in the high minors and he grew up in a culture where most of the kids he knew played baseball – and if they didn’t at least they knew how to play. He was scouted starting in his sophomore year and was drafted #14 overall with comparisons to Daryl Strawberry and Adam Jones – the real question was whether he was an outfielder or a pitcher.  He did not have to make a cultural transition or move across the world when starting professional baseball.

 

Kepler grew up in Germany, where most kids don’t know how to play baseball, let alone play it at a high level. His parents were ballerinas with no experience in MLB and while he played in top German leagues, the competition was incredibly weak. He had great potential and a nice build but was rated extremely raw by scouts and was a gamble since no one signed players out of Europe. He moved to the U.S. by himself at age 16, making an extreme cultural transition while finishing high school and working out with the Twins.

 

Those are two insanely different paths. Hicks was a highly touted and polished high school prospect who had some struggles in the low minors before having a good AA season which earned him a promotion to the majors. Kepler was a raw prospect from Europe of all places who was expected to struggle.  He did that but then had a fantastic AA season, fulfilling the Twins hopes that after a period of adjustment to American life and to playing against elite competition for the first time, he would develop into a stud prospect.  Hicks’ path after AA success and Kepler’s future after AA success are not a good place for comparison because the context within which each happened is so different.

 

When Hicks had his success, there were reasons to doubt it based on him struggling in the lower minors (though Span did the same thing and was fine).  Kepler, on the other hand, is a prospect following the path the Twins hoped he would.  It’s basically a story of regaining prospect status versus developing into a prospect.  Kepler’s success may be a mirage but it won’t have anything to do with Hicks’s experience before him.  To argue that is mistaken and neglects the historical context of the two seasons.

I am not arguing that California and Germany are equals in terms of baseball. 

The disagreement we have is by the time Hicks arrived with the Twins at 18, Kepler had been here for two years and played professional ball for two seasons. The Twins through resources at him.  That two year period would have caught him up to at least some extent.  So I think the two could be compared.  Not a perfect comparison but one nonetheless

Believe Arcia, if he does not bomb in spring training will be in Right, with Sano in left and Rosario in center, not ideal, but one choice.  Santana will be utility for all positions And Nunez will be infield backup and left field third option. 

If Arcia bombs or Buxton or Kepler has an outstanding spring, all bets are off, but would guess either Park is sent out to AAA for a couple of months to get his feet under him or TR will have to make a major trade at the end of spring training, stay tuned.

I firmly believe we'll see Sano-Rosario-Arcia in the OF if the Sano to the OF talk is legit.

I really hope you are wrong. 

Rosario played CF for 15 games last year and 40 in 2014.  

Flanking him is a guy who has not played a single game out there. 

On the other side, we have a guy with a really bad track record. In 202 games in the OF, Arcia has a dWAR of -3.7.