2016 Report Cards: Rotation

For our position player rundown, you can find infielders here and outfielders here. As we turn our gaze to starting pitching, the criteria will be at least five starts, and still in the organization. Off we go...

Jose Berrios, RHP

2016 Stats: 58.1 IP, 3-7, 8.02 ERA, 49 K, 35 BB, 1.87 WHIP, 6.20 FIP

Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017

The stuff was there. You can say that much for Berrios in his rookie season. The overpowering potential of his pitches was on full display as he whipped lively 94 MPH fastballs and broke off diving offspeeds.

That's the extent of positivity, though, and it's not even all that positive because the 22-year-old's electric arsenal was useless to him in practical terms. Whether it was nerves, mechanical issues, highly selective hitters, or some combination of all those things... he simply could not command any of his offerings. Berrios constantly fell behind in the count, leading to an endless barrage of walks, hits and home runs. He recorded only one quality start in 14 tries, and it met the lowest possible standard for the statistic (6 IP, 3 ER).

Berrios has dominated every level of the minor leagues – including some eye-popping numbers at Triple-A – and was among the youngest players to throw a pitch in the majors this year. In the big picture, there isn't much reason for alarm. But there's no way around it: his rookie campaign was an unrelenting disaster.

2016 Grade: F

2017 Outlook: Berrios is certainly a wild-card in Minnesota's rotation plans. They need to at least tentatively carve out a rotation spot for him, because it makes little sense to send him back to Rochester unless he has a crummy spring. But given how he finished – completely out of sorts and bewildered – that's not exactly an unthinkable scenario.

Tyler Duffey, RHP

2016 Stats: 133 IP, 9-12, 6.43 ERA, 114 K, 32 BB, 1.50 WHIP, 4.73 FIP

Contract Status: Pre-arbitration, under team control for ~$550K in 2017

Arriving with gusto in the second half of 2015, Duffey was a huge bright spot down the stretch, delivering consistently sterling outings following a clunker debut in Toronto. Enthusiasm was tempered, though, as we wondered how long he could survive as a starter with a two-pitch repertoire.

Opposing lineups, now more familiar with his limited attack plan, came better prepared this time around. Hitters increasingly laid off his curve and keyed on a completely unexceptional fastball. He spent most of the year in the big leagues but rarely strung together consecutive decent starts. His strikeout and walks rates weren't bad, but at the end of the day Duffey was simply too hittable.

2016 Grade: D-

2017 Outlook: Given his enduring ineffectiveness as a starter throughout the summer, it's inexplicable that the Twins didn't take a look at the former collegiate closer in the bullpen late in the year. Perhaps the new regime will have a different take on Duffey, who can undoubtedly be a weapon in some form.

Kyle Gibson, RHP

2016 Stats: 147.1 IP, 11-11, 5.07 ERA, 104 K, 55 BB, 1.56 WHIP, 4.70 FIP

Contract Status: Under contract for 2017 for ~$2.5M (arbitration estimate)

The model for a competitive Twins team in 2016 was, in large part, reliant on Gibson and Ervin Santana being steady staples atop the rotation. One didn't hold up his end of the bargain. Gibson got off to a sluggish start, missed the entire month of May with a shoulder strain, and never put together any particularly strong stretches after returning.

Did that injury, along with back and leg ailments he reported at various points, affect the righty on the mound? It sure looks that way. Gibson took a major step backward after steadily improving during his first three big-league seasons. He flashed diminished velocity on each of his pitches. His signature sinker lacked the requisite movement, contributing to a career-low 48.8 percent grounder rate and a career-high 20 home runs allowed.

When he's on his game Gibson has the formula for reliably solid, if unspectacular pitching results. But his game was amiss this year. Like so many others on the Twins and around the world, the 29-year-old is no doubt eager to put 2016 behind him.

2016 Grade: D

2017 Outlook: He's earned enough cred within this organization that he'll have a fairly secure hold on a rotation spot even coming off a lackluster campaign. Unless his health continues to deteriorate, Gibson will surely be better next year. But how much better?

Phil Hughes, RHP

2016 Stats: 59 IP, 1-7, 5.95 ERA, 34 K, 13 BB, 1.51 WHIP, 5.08 FIP

Contract Status: Signed through 2019 for $39.6 million

Gibson's 2016 campaign might have been sabotaged to some degree by physical setbacks, but he's got nothing on Hughes.

It was evident during the previous season that Hughes' arm strength was dwindling, and unfortunately his focused winter regimen did nothing to stem the tide.

Hughes was an elite control artist during his first two years in Minnesota, with an MLB-best 0.79 BB/9 rate. His ability to locate and stay in the zone has remained intact more or less, but this year, as the quality of his pitches continued to decline, his results followed suit.

Batters teed off on lukewarm heaters and flat cutters. Many days, it was clear that a laboring Hughes was attempting to get by on nothing but guile and luck. In mid-May he pulled himself from his best performance of the season at 75 pitches, complaining of fatigue. It wasn't long afterward that the right-hander was shut down, subsequently undergoing thoracic outlet surgery.

I do admire Hughes for toughing it out and taking the ball while his body betrayed him. It's just a shame that the coaching staff didn't take the decision out of his hands sooner, amidst the obvious reality that his bum shoulder was preventing him from being able to compete.

Grade: F

2017 Outlook: By the time he reports for spring training in February. Hughes will be nearly eight months removed from his operation, which typically has a 4-6 month recovery timetable. He should be back to full strength; it's just unclear what full strength means for him at this point. The 30-year-old is in an ambiguous spot with a range of possible outcomes that spans from front-end starter (as he was in 2014) to relief pitcher to total non-factor.

Ervin Santana, RHP

2016 Stats: 181.1 IP, 7-11, 3.38 ERA, 149 K, 53 BB, 1.22 WHIP, 3.81 FIP

Contract Status: Signed through 2018 for $28 million

Santana is a breath of fresh air on this list, and he certainly was that for the Twins rotation. It's difficult to imagine how unsightly this unit would have been if not for the welcome respite of Big Erv going every fifth day. While the pitching staff collapsed around him, Santana enjoyed one of the better seasons of his career, gobbling up quality innings from start to finish with a brief disabled stint in late April representing his only absence.

The veteran righty was particularly excellent during the second half, posting a 2.43 ERA in the final three months while the club faded into oblivion. During that span, he allowed more than three earned runs only once in 16 starts. In a year where every other Twins starter brought his worst, Santana brought his best.

Grade: B+

2017 Outlook: He'll be the Opening Day starter without a doubt, barring an unlikely trade. We probably shouldn't expect a repeat of his peak 2016 performance but Santana can certainly be a mid-rotation stalwart on a good team.

Hector Santiago, LHP

2016 Stats (w/ Twins): 61.1 IP, 5.58 ERA, 37 K, 22 BB, 1.42 WHIP, 5.82 FIP

Contract Status: Under contract for 2017 for ~$8.0 million (arbitration estimate)

While Santana was able to avoid the contagious ineptitude that struck the Twins rotation in 2016, another former Angel was not so lucky. Santiago was enjoying a solid season, and a highly impressive hot streak, when he was traded to Minnesota at the deadline. But when he went north, his numbers went south.

Santiago's poor overall numbers with the Twins were largely the result of an outrageously bad first four starts, as he settled in with a 3.19 ERA over his final seven turns. But even then, his K/BB ratio was unimpressive and his success hardly convincing.

Grade: D-

2017 Outlook: The Twins appear poised to run with Santiago in his final year of arbitration, even though the price tag will be quite high following such a poor showing. His track record merits another look and there's little reason to think the southpaw can't return to being a serviceable starter. Perhaps a good first half would generate trade interest at the deadline.