Twins Select Billy Amick at #60 in the 2024 MLB Draft

I didn't want him at 21, so my gut reaction is to not like it even though he's great value at 60.

What I don't understand is selecting three college infielders with consecutive picks that are all kind of 3B types.  I am sure they have their own projection plans that they know better such as converting a player like Amick to corner OF or even 1B.   

I don't think that baseball drafts should be based on "needs", but I think they have a slew of college pitchers like Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris in the AA and A+ levels to want to use any of their top 69 on that "demographic" (a new term I dislike).  On the other hand, the Twins system really lacks younger pitching talent outside of Soto and Raya so I like the pick of Dasan Hill and I would look to finding some other HS pitchers in the next couple of rounds and concentrate my bonus pool on them to get them to sign.

29 minutes ago, Dman said:

I don't love the pick. Power over hit is the most frustrating kind of player for me.  Generally just full of chase and K's.  He can take walks but he even has in zone swing and miss.  I would rather take a HS pitcher than this type of player, but the Twins must think they can tweak things and if they can this would be excellent value at pick 60.  Just not a pick I would make as it far too easily could be a wasted pick.

Not sure how taking a guy that was projected to b a borderline 1st rounder at 60 is a wasted pick. He could easily be a Keaschel clone and be at Wichita next year and a top 100 prospect. 

Like others, I'm not in love with Amick's profile overall, and he didn't particularly stand out to me at the CWS, but at #60 overall it seems like a pretty good pick.

The college performance this year wasn't so amazing that you can ignore the likely lack of defensive value, which is probably why he was still available.  But he does have a very good multi-year track record of hitting now, including in a brief stint at the Cape

Love Billy Baseballs bat to ball skills. 

Ehh, he strikes me as a typical 3 outcomes guy with limited defense.  I hope he can contribute, but sounds like may have been looking at his improvement and buying in on that. I would not be surprised if he tops out at AA or AAA. 

He seems quite raw. I'm hoping he can improve his pitch selection 

10 hours ago, LyleCole said:

What I don't understand is selecting three college infielders with consecutive picks that are all kind of 3B types.  I am sure they have their own projection plans that they know better such as converting a player like Amick to corner OF or even 1B.   

I don't think that baseball drafts should be based on "needs", but I think they have a slew of college pitchers like Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris in the AA and A+ levels to want to use any of their top 69 on that "demographic" (a new term I dislike).  On the other hand, the Twins system really lacks younger pitching talent outside of Soto and Raya so I like the pick of Dasan Hill and I would look to finding some other HS pitchers in the next couple of rounds and concentrate my bonus pool on them to get them to sign.

 

 

If the Twins’ first 3 picks from this draft all end up being starting caliber MLB players, this draft will be a rousing success.  Too many quality prospects is a big problem said no one ever.

I see zero similarities to Keaschall outside of them playing the same college sport and they are infielders.  This kid is raw but has projection. It’s going to take a lot of work to get him to MLB but I wouldn’t put a AAA ceiling on him.  A great value pick at #60!! 

I'm guessing catching prospects were few because this is the one area the Twins are very thin at.  I see/pray a trade for catching depth in our future.

48 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah I think this is a pick where the scouts give the middle finger to the analytics guys and rip up the report and go with their gut.  Or scenario number two they ignore what's bad in the report and say look at those great exit velocity numbers we have to have this guy. To your point he has produced and with wooden bats so there is a track record there, but swing and miss only gets amplified as you move up levels.  The Twins love to try and fix these guys, but not many get fixed IMO.

I guess what is somewhat maddening to me is it is well known that contact skills really enhance a hitters ability to make it to MLB baseball and the Twins have models just like other teams that tell them pretty much the same things.  I guess I would love to know why they would go against their model?  Do they believe in it or not?  That's my question.  

I know CES had swing issues models didn't like and the Twins took a chance in the 4th round and that worked out pretty well.  Still Sabato didn't, Cavaco didn't. Larnach is taking a looong time and still somewhat struggling.  We see that when they follow the model they can pull guys like Lee and Keaschall which have been fast movers.  I just don't understand dropping the model unless maybe they see some kind of fix for the contact rates that pretty much all other teams passed on.

I just think these early picks are really important picks especially for bats and taking a high risk flyer there even at 60 doesn't feel like a good use of that pick.  Maybe he beats the projection model and he works out great.  I really hope he does. Still it is just a pick that irks me.

I'm honestly not sure if he would have been ranked higher by the model or the scouts.

Scouts certainly like his swing and reports on the defense seem to point to improvement, though I think I saw him described as a stiff athlete too.

As much as contact rate is important to models, so is exit velocity and he was near the top of the scale there.  I would also think that models might weight track record a little more, if only just because they need as much data as possible, whereas scouting can be more about spotting improvements.  Neither Amick or Culpepper really had breakout seasons but they did have track records. 

At any rate, I kind of doubt he would have been lower than #60 using just a model.

Of all the prospect we selected so far, Amike is most popular in the consensus & talking heads. He's much like the type Twins used to drool over very much like Cavaco. Can they fix him? They didn't fix Cavaco. 

36 minutes ago, Dman said:

If he fits models with exit velocity it seems strange that he would fall to 60.  He had rumored steam in the comp round range but no one bit until the Twins who kind of had an extra pick to play with there.

I'm not as big a believer in exit velocity though I do agree power is important.  You can see the conundrum more when you look at a player like Martin.  Will he ever OPS much over .700 even with great onbase skills? You need some power or your value gets diminished.

Camargo and Wallner were guys with great exit velocities and there have been months where Camargo has hit for average as well as power, but when you move them to MLB the swing and miss really get s amplified and makes for a tough transition. Rooker whom I gave up on did eventually make it and maybe Wallner will too, It just seems like a slow long hard road with those types of hitters. With plenty falling by the wayside.

Sabato who is also a bit stiff at the plate looks like he isn't going to make it and they loved his exit velocities too.  I'm trying to think of someone with good contact and on base skills that didn't make it. It also seems the odds are better teaching someone with good contact skills to swing harder at times to get to more power than a power hitter somehow gaining contact skills.

The Twins are obviously believers in Amick and I do hope they are right and I have to eat crow, but I don't see that pick working out well.

Dakota Jordan still being available probably does indicate that contact probably trumps power in most models.

Amick's contact issues aren't nearly as scary as Jordan's.  At some point the risk-reward balances out, and I think #60 is a reasonable place for Amick.

Wallner and Martin are a good comparison case.  Probably in roughly the same FV bucket right now but in completely different ways.  I'd still take Wallner overall even with the swing and miss.

3 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

If the Twins’ first 3 picks from this draft all end up being starting caliber MLB players, this draft will be a rousing success.  Too many quality prospects is a big problem said no one ever.

The problem is they have to play somewhere.   From what I have Culpepper might have plus fielding potential as a 3B, but the other two are more limited on the defensive spectrum.   

There is the additional problem that somewhere these prospects bump up against players like Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis and even Jose Miranda.  

1 hour ago, LyleCole said:

The problem is they have to play somewhere.   From what I have Culpepper might have plus fielding potential as a 3B, but the other two are more limited on the defensive spectrum.   

There is the additional problem that somewhere these prospects bump up against players like Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis and even Jose Miranda.  

Again, having multiple MLB starter caliber prospects for a position is not a problem.  You can trade them for what you do need very easily, and/or replace expensive players.  You mention Lewis, Miranda, and Lee, but you should also understand that in 3-4 years Lewis is likely to be gone, with Miranda and Lee close behind.  That is, unless the Twins get back to doing Kepler/Polanco style deals.

6 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Again, having multiple MLB starter caliber prospects for a position is not a problem.  You can trade them for what you do need very easily, and/or replace expensive players.  You mention Lewis, Miranda, and Lee, but you should also understand that in 3-4 years Lewis is likely to be gone, with Miranda and Lee close behind.  That is, unless the Twins get back to doing Kepler/Polanco style deals.

If Lee and Lewis are gone in 3-4 years, I have no interest in being a fan of this team.  

And while it is "great" to have multiple MLB starting caliber prospects for a position, it actually creates difficulties in developing them and maximizing the value of the prospect.

4 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

If Lee and Lewis are gone in 3-4 years, I have no interest in being a fan of this team.  

And while it is "great" to have multiple MLB starting caliber prospects for a position, it actually creates difficulties in developing them and maximizing the value of the prospect.

The you better pray that Royce Lewis decides to switch agents or keeps on getting hurt, because there's no way Scott Boras is letting him sign a Kepler/Polanco contract, and a healthy Lewis is signing a big FA deal after the 2028 season, a deal the Twins won't be likely to match.  Lee won't be gone in 3-4, but he will in 5-6, with Miranda in 4-5.

It also doesn't create development issues at all to have multiple MLB caliber prospects at a position, unless that position is DH/1B.  If the first 2 picks this year move off short, they can go to third...or 2nd, or the OF.  The odds that all of them develop at the same rate is also unlikely, so they'll probably be at multiple levels for awhile.  Finally, people will inevitably get hurt, opening up playing time as well.

If the Twins somehow have all 3 of these players capable of playing 3B in the majors within the next 3-4 years, that is a massive success, and a problem that 29 other organizations would love to have.

3 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

The you better pray that Royce Lewis decides to switch agents or keeps on getting hurt, because there's no way Scott Boras is letting him sign a Kepler/Polanco contract, and a healthy Lewis is signing a big FA deal after the 2028 season, a deal the Twins won't be likely to match.  Lee won't be gone in 3-4, but he will in 5-6, with Miranda in 4-5.

It also doesn't create development issues at all to have multiple MLB caliber prospects at a position, unless that position is DH/1B.  If the first 2 picks this year move off short, they can go to third...or 2nd, or the OF.  The odds that all of them develop at the same rate is also unlikely, so they'll probably be at multiple levels for awhile.  Finally, people will inevitably get hurt, opening up playing time as well.

If the Twins somehow have all 3 of these players capable of playing 3B in the majors within the next 3-4 years, that is a massive success, and a problem that 29 other organizations would love to have.

Again, you can only play one 3B per game, and these guys are limited defensively to 3B, 1B and then DH.  IF they all are great picks, then great.  But that is not likely and I would much, much , much prefer that we develop 3 MLB starting level players at 3 different positions than 3 of the same.....   

.306 with a 2:1 K:BB.  Huh.  In college.  Not the greatest start to things.  You'd think they'd be all over the Luke Keaschall profile for as long as they're drafting position players.

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think worrying about what position the 60th overall pick in a weak draft is going to play is likely too much worrying for me....

Perhaps.  But it isn't necessarily worrying it is questioning the draft strategy.