3 Potential Twins Breakout Prospects in 2022

You’re kidding right?  Steer maybe. Strotman was not good after acquisition and Sabato is nearing bust status. 

That is one bummer of a list.

I agree with these three.  I think Cole Sands and Louie Varland stick out as other pitchers that could be top 10 by the end of the year if things go well. (Or Vallimont if somehow he controls his walks.)  On the hitting side, Edouard Julien and Misael Urbina are two other names that could move up potentially IMO.  However, three of the four I mentioned already did pretty well this year, not unlike Steer.  In that sense, Strotman, Sabato, and Urbina are my picks for prospects who struggled this year but could be top 10.

On the flip side, based on the mid-season Twins Daily ranks, I only see Keoni Cavaco as likely to drop out of the top 10 in the near future.  And my guess is he already is out of the top 10 for end of season ranks for most people (like Tom's Oct 20th update.)  This definitely seems promising for the quality of top prospects on the way.

Is a 25 year old pitcher considered a break out prospect? I hope Strotman turns out great but can a 25 year old in AAA really break out.

Steer it seems like he could be a big break out guy, he seems like a guy that could be the next Jose Miranda, super hot start in AA and continue that right into AAA.

Sabato, if he can figure out how to make better contact, like in college, he seem like he could really good player, or he ends up like ABW or Palka.

2 hours ago, Linus said:

You’re kidding right?  Steer maybe. Strotman was not good after acquisition and Sabato is nearing bust status. 

The article points out struggle of Strotman after coming over, but address why the writer believes he may turn things around, mainly late season fatigue that should hopefully not happen next year.  In terms of Sabato, calling any player a bust after 1 season is rather narrow minded.  The fact that Sabato made huge difference in his short time in high A should give hope that his early issues were long layoff and transition to pro ball related. 

I wrote a couple of comments on Sabato during the year, and although his average was low, his OBP was high, but his slugging was bad.  Without watching him there are questions that those numbers bring up. Specifically, what kind of contact was he making when he was putting ball in play?  Was he missing pitches in the zone or taking pitches he should hit, and can that issue be addressed?  He clearly was walking a lot.  With the fact the FCL is known to be a pitching league was the area and parks sapping his power causing a lot of warning track flies that in other parks are 3 to 4 rows deep?  The fact that he had a huge change in power numbers when he advanced in league suggests that FCL was affecting his power numbers. 

I was down on Sabato all year, and never liked the pick, but I am willing to give the kid another year or two before I say he is a bust.  

Some of this depends on how you categorize breakout? Are we looking for guys that were mediocre to bad who we think might become legitimately good, or someone who was good becoming great? One of the things that made Miranda's year so amazing was he hadn't done a lot before that. He was decent, but nothing amazing in A-ball, and only had one game in AA before this season's explosion.

Steer hasn't really had any significant struggles to date; there's been a bit of a drop-off after he's gotten the mid-year promotion, but overall he's been pretty good in both of his professional years playing for the Twins. I don't see him as that much of a breakout candidate in that while I think he's going to hit well at AA (and probably get a promotion to AAA midseason) I don't see him as being a guy who is going to take a sudden and big leap forward.

Sabato is a better "fit", since he kinda stunk in low A (a 22 year old college player should not be hitting below the Mendoza line in low A, even if it's the FSL, even if he didn't play competitive ball for a year, no matter how many walks he was taking) but showed something in his move to high A that suggested maybe he could make contact with the ball for something other than the occasional dinger. he's a guy that could put it all together next year and restore his prospect status after deservedly getting knocked down the list. Sabato has huge power and a good eye, but I'll be watching to see how much contact he makes.

Cavaco is a guy I think could have that "a-ha!" moment next year where his tools catch up to the game. As a super young player, missing a year of development time in 2020 probably really hurt him and being 20 in the FSL isn't easy either. He's a guy I think could be that breakout candidate in 2022.

40 minutes ago, Trov said:

The article points out struggle of Strotman after coming over, but address why the writer believes he may turn things around, mainly late season fatigue that should hopefully not happen next year.  In terms of Sabato, calling any player a bust after 1 season is rather narrow minded.  The fact that Sabato made huge difference in his short time in high A should give hope that his early issues were long layoff and transition to pro ball related. 

I wrote a couple of comments on Sabato during the year, and although his average was low, his OBP was high, but his slugging was bad.  Without watching him there are questions that those numbers bring up. Specifically, what kind of contact was he making when he was putting ball in play?  Was he missing pitches in the zone or taking pitches he should hit, and can that issue be addressed?  He clearly was walking a lot.  With the fact the FCL is known to be a pitching league was the area and parks sapping his power causing a lot of warning track flies that in other parks are 3 to 4 rows deep?  The fact that he had a huge change in power numbers when he advanced in league suggests that FCL was affecting his power numbers. 

I was down on Sabato all year, and never liked the pick, but I am willing to give the kid another year or two before I say he is a bust.  

I said he is nearing a bust. Of course he deserves more chances. But to say he is getting ready to breakout??????

Here we go....betting on and hoping for the magic dust to hit our prospects. Only 2 since 2012 stand out as winners, Berrios and Buxton.   The rest have yet to really prove themselves,  Glimpses maybe but nothing to get too excited about.

Miranda's season was flat out unbelievable.  When talking about who to expect to have that type of move next year, my question is that it may be more likely the answer is no one.  Who was the last player to have a break-out year similar to what Miranda had last year?  I don't remember anyone, but then my memory ain't what it used to be.  Have a feeling Miranda's type of break-out are few, very few.

If there is going to be one, my bet would be that jmlease may have hit the best candidate, Cavaco.  He's someone who has all the tools in the world and hasn't gotten it done on the field, yet.  Another similar candidate could be Javier, should he still be in the Twins organization next year.

12 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

Here we go....betting on and hoping for the magic dust to hit our prospects. Only 2 since 2012 stand out as winners, Berrios and Buxton.   The rest have yet to really prove themselves,  Glimpses maybe but nothing to get too excited about.

I'd say 2012 did better than that: Duffey & Rogers have been good contributors, and in 2013 Mitch Garver certainly proved himself.

2013-2015 drafts have not yielded much from the top end, which has definitely hurt the franchise...but 2016 is looking like another 2012: Kirilloff is ready for a starting job, Miranda had a breakout year and looks ready to contribute, and Balazovic is developing nicely. Only 20% of the first round picks from 2016 have "proven" themselves (1.0 bWAR or better) so it's really too soon to make any judgments on that class.

but one of the reasons we have a different front office is because we had so many busts at the top end for too many years. The current regime has been in charge of drafting and development essentially from 2017 on and so far their track record looks ok, and there's plenty of players that were drafted in-house to get excited about.

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Is a 25 year old pitcher considered a break out prospect? I hope Strotman turns out great but can a 25 year old in AAA really break out.

Steer it seems like he could be a big break out guy, he seems like a guy that could be the next Jose Miranda, super hot start in AA and continue that right into AAA.

Sabato, if he can figure out how to make better contact, like in college, he seem like he could really good player, or he ends up like ABW or Palka.

 

There are quite a few Pitchers who "break-out" 2 or 3 years after reaching the big leagues so I don't know why a 25 y/o in AAA can't be considered breaking out if they take a big leap forward.  Liam Hendricks is a good example.

8 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

There are quite a few Pitchers who "break-out" 2 or 3 years after reaching the big leagues so I don't know why a 25 y/o in AAA can't be considered breaking out if they take a big leap forward.  Liam Hendricks is a good example.

Sure, but the article is 3 Potential Twins Breakout Prospects in 2022, if the article was 3 potential minor league players that could figure it out and help the Twins. He would be first on my list.

IMO Strotman is barely as prospect anymore, he is 25 and had an ERA in AAA last year of 5.29.

Plus in Hendricks example he was pitching in the majors at age 22, 23,24,25, and had 50 major leagues games prior to breaking out with Toronto in 2015.

I would love and hope for Strotman to come out of the gate in AAA with an amazing start, and move into the Twins rotation and continue pitching light outs, but that still wouldn't change my mind that he was a prospect that broke out, it would be again IMO a minor league pitcher that finally figured it out.

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Sure, but the article is 3 Potential Twins Breakout Prospects in 2022, if the article was 3 potential minor league players that could figure it out and help the Twins. He would be first on my list.

IMO Strotman is barely as prospect anymore, he is 25 and had an ERA in AAA last year of 5.29.

Plus in Hendricks example he was pitching in the majors at age 22, 23,24,25, and had 50 major leagues games prior to breaking out with Toronto in 2015.

I would love and hope for Strotman to come out of the gate in AAA with an amazing start, and move into the Twins rotation and continue pitching light outs, but that still wouldn't change my mind that he was a prospect that broke out, it would be again IMO a minor league pitcher that finally figured it out.

I fail to see the difference from a practical or functional perspective.  Does the player's unrealized potential result in an important asset to the Twins or not.  Command seems to be what's holding him back to me.  If he had harnessed that command at 22, we would not have him.  I am not a member of the Saints coaching staff so I have little idea if they are seeing something that would suggest he might breakout or not.  It does however happen with pitchers so I see no need to be so pessimistic.

7 hours ago, Linus said:

You’re kidding right?  Steer maybe. Strotman was not good after acquisition and Sabato is nearing bust status. 

Just because you don't agree with it, doesn't mean it's not possible.

56 minutes ago, MN_ExPat said:

Just because you don't agree with it, doesn't mean it's not possible.

Right. And just because you apparently view it differently doesn’t mean I’m wrong. 

19 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

12 starts seems a bit rash to break out the indignation at the thought that just MAYBE it's a little early to write him off?

Your initial over-the-top reaction, not the gist, is what got people questioning your take.

Again I never said I’m writing anybody off. I am expressing skepticism (realism) about the prospect of two guys that have struggled being breakout candidates. Hardly over the top. 

15 hours ago, Linus said:

Again I never said I’m writing anybody off. I am expressing skepticism (realism) about the prospect of two guys that have struggled being breakout candidates. Hardly over the top. 

Oh, it's completely over the top Good Sir.  Like low earth orbit over the top... ?.

Cavaco was not a great pick, regardless where he was snagged, 1st round or 40th round. Look at it this way, if the kid was picked, let’s say 10th round, would everyone be thinking that all of the sudden he’s going to show something he hasn’t shown already? There are serious fundamentals missing from his game, both offensively and defensively. He has a big problem hitting the baseball. He was drafted and touted as a power bat - he has shown none of that. He had 24 errors on defense, and he missed a bunch of games due to concussion and whatever else he missed for at the end of the season. His errors likely would have been around 30 without those missed games. He is not a great baseball player, expecting him to suddenly be one is a bad bet. If he can’t field, can’t hit, and apparently can’t keep himself on the active list for a reasonably short season - he is a bust. Not just because of the stats, but because this is not what a first round pick looks like, whether he’s a HS guy or college. Give me a break, someone really screwed this pick up.

Where the hell is he even playing this off season?

On 11/3/2021 at 7:45 AM, Linus said:

You’re kidding right?  Steer maybe. Strotman was not good after acquisition and Sabato is nearing bust status. 

BUST STATUS?  At 22 with fewer than 500 professional plate appearances? 

On 11/3/2021 at 4:27 PM, Linus said:

Again I never said I’m writing anybody off. I am expressing skepticism (realism) about the prospect of two guys that have struggled being breakout candidates. Hardly over the top. 

Your claim of realism is not over the top. That stuff you put out only goes down. What anyone sys is opinion.  Players with minimal stat lines or developing pitchers is opinion. You can be skeptical. The only way it is realism is that the the majority of minor league players fail

On 11/3/2021 at 11:55 AM, jmlease1 said:

I'd say 2012 did better than that: Duffey & Rogers have been good contributors, and in 2013 Mitch Garver certainly proved himself.

2013-2015 drafts have not yielded much from the top end, which has definitely hurt the franchise...but 2016 is looking like another 2012: Kirilloff is ready for a starting job, Miranda had a breakout year and looks ready to contribute, and Balazovic is developing nicely. Only 20% of the first round picks from 2016 have "proven" themselves (1.0 bWAR or better) so it's really too soon to make any judgments on that class.

It is easy to forget about Duffey and Rogers since they are not everyday players but they are okay?  ERA's, etc. do not put them more in the serviceable than upper echelon.  Is 30 getting on the older side for pitcher?

Still waiting for the 2016.  Seems they have a good chance to become MLB quality players, Garver and Kirilloff had quite a few trips to the injured list in 2021?????  I agree it is  a little early.

I feel like we are always "waiting and hoping".  

On 11/5/2021 at 2:44 AM, old nurse said:

Your claim of realism is not over the top. That stuff you put out only goes down. What anyone sys is opinion.  Players with minimal stat lines or developing pitchers is opinion. You can be skeptical. The only way it is realism is that the the majority of minor league players fail

By definition, breakout candidates almost have to be guys who've struggled.

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

By definition, breakout candidates almost have to be guys who've struggled.

 

3 years in one level of baseball is struggling.  progressing slowly is learning. Breaking out is the player reaching potential