Byron Buxton Extension

[DaveW]

Was thinking the Twins should take the Longoria approach with Buxton, my idea is within days of him reaching the majors, offer him a 6-9 year deal (ideally two-three years of high salary team options for his first 2-3 years of free agency)

 

Obviously there is risk in locking up a guy before he "proves" it in the majors, however for the Twins long term I think it would be in their absolute best interest to do similar.

 

FWIW: Longo's original contract was 6 years/19 mil (44 mil over 9 years with options) And he ended up taking on a ton of years at the end, the Rays now have him for 15 years/144.5 million.

 

If I were the Twins I would certainly do this with Buxton within one week of him cracking the Twins lineup: 6 years/27 million (18, 19, 20 mil options for the first 3 free agent years (4 mil buyouts) 9 Years-84 million to which you can tack on another 5-6 years about 5-6 years into the contract.

 

Ideally I would look into doing it with Sano as well. The risk in these cases would be well worth the rewards! Yeah, you overpay the first 6 years a bit, but I think it would be very hard for him to turn down such a nice amount of guaranteed money.

 

 

Thoughts?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Last Wednesday, Derek Wetmore of 1500 asked a similar question. I went through some extensions and wrote up what my offer would be... (It's at home, so I'll have to check later.)

 

I tweeted the parameters, but can't access them right now either.

[nicksaviking]

I'd love it, but that means the Twins are banking on him being not just good, but elite. I couldn't see the Twins gambling like that, though I hope I'm wrong. I'd think they would wait at least until after his rookie year, I just can't imagine them paying an average of $19 million for three option years for a guy who hasn't proven anything against MLB pitching.

[diehardtwinsfan]

It makes sense under certain circumstances. I'd probably want to see how he did in the minors this year just to set my self at ease that last season wasn't some sort of crazy good fluke, but yeah, if he continues to do as well as he did, it certainly makes sense, and does for both sides.

[Seth Stohs]

I'd love it, but that means the Twins are banking on him being not just good, but elite. I couldn't see the Twins gambling like that, though I hope I'm wrong. I'd think they would wait at least until after his rookie year, I just can't imagine them paying an average of $19 million for three option years for a guy who hasn't proven anything against MLB pitching.

 

I can't imagine his agent letting him accept $19 million for three years after he could be making $35 million in free agency. That's what Trout is likely getting.

[tobi0040]

I can't imagine his agent letting him accept $19 million for three years after he could be making $35 million in free agency. That's what Trout is likely getting.

 

There is a way you can structure it in a manner that makes sense for both Buxton and the team. It would involve him making a lot more in the years when he would be on a rookie deal, then taking a discount as a free agent.

 

With regard to the Trout deal, it seems to me they are paying him more now than they otherwise would, but then they turn around and pay him $35 and $38M in his first two free agent years? A-Rod dwarfs every other position player at $28M a year. Then you have Pujols at $24M, Prince at $23M. So this one is a head scratcher for me. And it isn't even as long, he is a free agent at 28.

[thetank]

As young as Buxton is he may not produce a productive season until he's 24 or 25. Giving him a security contract until he proves he is the real deal is a bad idea.

 

Tampa should be disappointed in Longorias performance. Expecting bigger numbers than last years .269. He should be driving in 110 runs and scoring that many with an OPS nearing 1.00.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'll post the yearly breakdown later, but I had a deal that paid $109m over 12 years with an option and hefty buyout. The last two years were worth $46.5 million. It would start this year and buy out five years of FA. I get Seth's point... but there's definitely more risk in Buxton turning it down than Trout.

 

Also, if Mike Cameron is his floor, Cameron was worth $106 over his best six (I think...) year period.

[nicksaviking]

I can't imagine his agent letting him accept $19 million for three years after he could be making $35 million in free agency. That's what Trout is likely getting.

 

After a week in the majors I'm not sure agent, fan or ballclub will be able to deterine if he's Trout-like.

 

To clarify, Dave's three buyout years are $19 mill on average, not collectively.

[johnnydakota]

Lets wait and see if he makes it to the show before we give 200 million dollar contract,ok

[ashbury]

Lets wait and see if he makes it to the show before we give 200 million dollar contract,ok

 

I kinda thought Dave covered that in his first sentence right after the comma.

[DaveW]

I'd love it, but that means the Twins are banking on him being not just good, but elite. I couldn't see the Twins gambling like that, though I hope I'm wrong. I'd think they would wait at least until after his rookie year, I just can't imagine them paying an average of $19 million for three option years for a guy who hasn't proven anything against MLB pitching.

That is why they are option years, if he falls off the map you buy him out for 4 million.

[DaveW]

Lets wait and see if he makes it to the show before we give 200 million dollar contract,ok

 

I would gladly wager $100 that he "makes it to the show", I will even give ya 20:1 odds

[DaveW]

I can't imagine his agent letting him accept $19 million for three years after he could be making $35 million in free agency. That's what Trout is likely getting.

The angels are paying the price in waiting to long with trout.

 

I wouldn't be opposed to upping it to 22,23,24 mil a year. Yes he could be leaving money on the table, but the appeal of 30+ mil guaranteed (with but out) to a kid who is that young....has to have some bearing, no? It would be hard to turn down such security IMO.

 

Heck even if he tanked I wouldn't mind the deal for the twins 30 mil over 7 years can easily be absorbed....heck that is about as much as we wasted on nishi and Blackburn.

[tobi0040]

Tampa should be disappointed in Longorias performance. Expecting bigger numbers than last years .269. He should be driving in 110 runs and scoring that many with an OPS nearing 1.00.

 

Tampa is paying Longoria $6M a year. He has averaged an OPS of .870, 29.5 HR, and 98 RBI a year (career numbers / 5.5)

 

I am guessing they are not dissapointed.

 

Exactly 8 players have a career OPS over 1.00. Ever.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_plus_slugging_career.shtml

[thetank]

Tampa is paying Longoria $6M a year. He has averaged an OPS of .870, 29.5 HR, and 98 RBI a year (career numbers / 5.5)

 

I am guessing they are not dissapointed.

 

Exactly 8 players have a career OPS over 1.00. Ever.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/onbase_plus_slugging_career.shtml

Not so bad if he still has trade value. I still think the Rays were expecting the next level higher.

[DaveW]

Not so bad if he still has trade value. I still think the Rays were expecting the next level higher.

 

Dude what are you talking about, he has plenty of trade value, every team in baseball including the Twins would take him in a heartbeat. First off, RBI's are a terrible stat to judge a player, BA is another bad one, 2nd off, he was the top 3rd baseman in WAR in both 2010 and 2011, in 2013 he finished third right behind a certain Miguel Cabrera. He is easily the best 3B in the league now that Miggy is moving back to first. He is pretty much a guarantee at this point for a 6.5-8.0 WAR year.

 

His contract is probably the steal of the century at this point, the guy is a straight up stud and though early, is already playing at a legit hall of fame level.

[Mike Sixel]

Yup, the Angels must be regretting not signing Trout last year.....the price is up at least $5MM per year for him now.....the estimates I've read across the 'net are scary big (and he's worth it, compared to others).

[Danchat]

Hahahaha... I never realized how much dough we are going to have to pay Sano and Buxton if they are as good as we hope. Hoo boy. In 8 years, nobody will remember the griping about Mauer's big contract 'cause we'll be stuck with 2 players hogging half the whole payroll.

[Shane Wahl]

10 years, $130 million. Options and buyouts involved too. I cannot imagine anyone being silly enough to go for anything less given how crazy the market could be 7 years from now.

[DaveW]

Hahahaha... I never realized how much dough we are going to have to pay Sano and Buxton if they are as good as we hope. Hoo boy. In 8 years, nobody will remember the griping about Mauer's big contract 'cause we'll be stuck with 2 players hogging half the whole payroll.

 

That's why you sign one of em early to save a bit. Hell though, if the Tigers can have Verlander, Miggy and Scherzer all signed long term, the Twins can make it work.

[TheLeviathan]

10 years, $130 million. Options and buyouts involved too. I cannot imagine anyone being silly enough to go for anything less given how crazy the market could be 7 years from now.

 

This is the key. If you can't reach a dollar value that gets the agent salivating, it's a moot point whether it makes sense for the Twins.

[Kendel]

Signing a long term contract early for a sense of security?? A player who gets a $6,000,000 signing bonus may be willing to gamble a little. We've been told his major purchase so far is a Ford F150. I don't think Mr. Buxton is worried about starvation for some time to come.

[DaveW]

Signing a long term contract early for a sense of security?? A player who gets a $6,000,000 signing bonus may be willing to gamble a little. We've been told his major purchase so far is a Ford F150. I don't think Mr. Buxton is worried about starvation for some time to come.

Prob closer to $3 million after taxes, agents, etc. Certainly a good amount but hardly (whole family set for life)

[Thrylos]

Two words why I am against this:

 

Bo Jackson

 

and two more:

 

Mark Prior

[Seth Stohs]

Hahahaha... I never realized how much dough we are going to have to pay Sano and Buxton if they are as good as we hope. Hoo boy. In 8 years, nobody will remember the griping about Mauer's big contract 'cause we'll be stuck with 2 players hogging half the whole payroll.

 

And people will gripe about their contracts for some reason or another.

[Seth Stohs]

Two words why I am against this:

 

Bo Jackson

 

and two more:

 

Mark Prior

 

That's definitely the risk. No question.

[ashbury]

In 8 years, nobody will remember the griping about Mauer's big contract

 

The way that happens is usually that you got 7 years out of the player that were good enough to justify the huge payday for the coming year(s). It's just the way the CBA works. The hope under this system is to keep the pipeline of young cheap talent coming so that you can always afford multiple eight-figure salaries at any given time.

[Kendel]

Prob closer to $3 million after taxes, agents, etc. Certainly a good amount but hardly (whole family set for life)

I'm not saying I don't like the idea. But I think it will be more expensive than most think. If I have $3million in the bank, I won't play Powerball till the jackpot is huge. They need to make sure this kid loves playing for the Twins and wants to stay. Maybe Gardy needs to tuck him in at night, tell him a story and shine his cleats. Whatever it takes! #1 build a winning team around him. Playing for Twins the last 3 seasons wouldn't have been all giggles. All the signs say this kid is going to be special. He needs to think the team is headed in that direction too. We need to find a way to get him to follow Seth. I know it helps my attitude.

[tobi0040]

Good point. a deal would likely fall between Longoria's incredibly team friendly 15 years-144 million and Trout's not so friendly 6 year 150 million.

 

I wonder how much of a contract like that can be insured? My understanding was 4-5 years was about the max for a pitcher but you could insure more for a position player