Byron Buxton Extension

[nicksaviking]

That is why they are option years, if he falls off the map you buy him out for 4 million.

 

I don't disagree, I'm game for that deal, it just seems very un-Twinlike.

[B Richard]

No doubt in my mind you have to go for this. Whether or not the Twins will is another question. You need a foundation for long term success. Is there risk involved? Yes. That might just be why Byron decides to sign, interestingly enough. It won't be nearly as good as Longoria's deal, but my hope is that we can lock him in for a few post-arb years and still have a chance at re-signing Sano if he is the real deal after all.

[Zephrin]

Part of this might depend on when he makes The Show. I say that because the trend (and honestly, rightfully so) seems to be for these ultra-talents to seek the "security" payday now while being in position to hit the FA market before age 30. Let's say Buxton is up in September with the presumption that he's here to stay. I'd be shocked if his agent goes for more than 7-8 years, guaranteeing his freedom by 29. Delay his arrival, and the window to buy out FA years as part of the deal starts dwindling.

[kab21]

Two words why I am against this:

 

Bo Jackson

 

and two more:

 

Mark Prior

 

The team will forever be hamstrung by the 4M buyouts. They won't be able to afford the Kevin Corriea's and Mike Pelfrey's of the league. Whatever will they do?

[glunn]

The team will forever be hamstrung by the 4M buyouts. They won't be able to afford the Kevin Corriea's and Mike Pelfrey's of the league. Whatever will they do?

 

Moderator note: this is a good thread. Let's not take it off track with sarcasm.

[DaveW]

Two words why I am against this:

 

Bo Jackson

 

and two more:

 

Mark Prior

 

Yeah it's a risk, we established that. Several more words:

Bryce Harper

Mike Trout

Evan Longoria

Giancarlo Stanton

Stephen Strausburg

David Price

Matt Wieters

King Felix

Joe Mauer

Justin Upton

BJ Upton even!

 

All #1 or #2 guys over the past few years who easily would be worth said contract offer (especially considering the team options/buyouts)

[DaveW]

Moderator note: this is a good thread. Let's not take it off track with sarcasm.

 

I don't see that as over the top, yeah it was a bit of a sarcastic tone, but Kab brings up a good point, the $4 million buy outs wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if it absolutely had to happen.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Sounds like a good idea. I might even consider Meyer for this even though he doesn't have the Strasburg/Price/Hernandez pedigree from your list. Buxton & Meyer really seem to have their head in the right place though.

[Major League Ready]

The answer is it depends on the terms of the deal and how sure the Twins FO is that Buxton will live up to expectations. (Not the Willie Mays expectations but high expectations). I think you do it if the terms are reasonable but I don't think you do it the first two weeks he us up. Take a little time to evaluate a huge investment.

 

What about Dozier? I see on MLB rumors he is open to an extension. With him you have a floor that looks to be pretty high. You still might end up trading him and putting Rosario at 2B but a reasonable contract helps facilitate such a transaction.

[tobi0040]

Two words why I am against this:

 

Bo Jackson

 

and two more:

 

Mark Prior

 

Bo had 7 years with some sick numbers. He finished with a .780 OPS and was close to 30-30 a few times. I would see the downside as more dramatic than that. Think Andy Marte.

 

18 year old in A - .831 OPS, 18 HR

19 year old in A+ - .840 OPS, 19 HR

20 year old in AA - .910 OPS, 20 HR

 

At that point he was a top prospect. 10 years later he had a .635 OPS in 930 AB's, over 8 seasons.

 

With Buxton you would think he will be above average in the field and on the bases, barring a series of injuries. At a very minimum.

[howieramone1406390264]

Sounds like a good idea. I might even consider Meyer for this even though he doesn't have the Strasburg/Price/Hernandez pedigree from your list. Buxton & Meyer really seem to have their head in the right place though.

 

I was thinking the same thing and I would add Stewart when the time comes. It appears likely we will receive close to a top 10 draft pick in 2015, and then not see that rarefied atmosphere for many years. We have no albatross contacts, and as much payroll flexibility as any team in baseball. I could see us considering Longoria type deals with Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Stewart, and our #5 in 2014.

 

Some time ago I read an article where Jim Pohlad acknowledged baseball is cyclical. They were in the process of forming a committee to study and try to alter this phenomenon. Our favorite team dominated the Central from 2002-2010 and they have every intention of doing it again.

[DaveW]

I wouldn't do it with Meyer or any of our pitchers personally. (Not that quickly at least) it only takes one arm injury to completely destroy a career, where as a position player doesn't have to worry about that as much.

 

With pitchers I think you at least wait 2-3 years into their major league career so you have some guess on how they can hold up.

[TheLeviathan]

What about Dozier? I see on MLB rumors he is open to an extension. With him you have a floor that looks to be pretty high. You still might end up trading him and putting Rosario at 2B but a reasonable contract helps facilitate such a transaction.

 

See, this is where this stuff starts to breakdown. You can toss extensions all over the place but doing so for unproven, shakey, or still developing players takes on a tremendous amount of risk.

 

Should the Twins consider this option? Absolutely, if the stars line up and it makes sense for everyone - go nuts. But, as far as I can tell, this has happened for a significant player only twice in league history and one of those two guys is another roiding error away from being an awful investment. The stars don't align often, it shouldn't be planned on nor advocated as a common strategy IMO.

[kab21]

Few things ruin threads more than this type of comment.

Posting irrelevant comps about a couple of players that got hurt decades ago as a reason to avoid long term contracts is silly. Players get injured in baseball. It's reality regardless if you are dealing with a Buxton type (pre arb or even pre service time) or locking up a star to a 200M contract.

[pierre75275]

I think early long term contracts will soon become the norm for every club not named Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Dodgers. And Mike Trout's mega deal would be the most likely reason why.

[B Richard]

Don't mean to pile on, but I'll start worrying about the Jackson comp once Buxton starts suiting up for the Vikings

[Jdosen]

What about Dozier? I see on MLB rumors he is open to an extension. With him you have a floor that looks to be pretty high. You still might end up trading him and putting Rosario at 2B but a reasonable contract helps facilitate such a transaction.

I like Dozier. Love what I saw out of him last year. That being said, I need to see more than 4 good months to want to buy up his arb years and some free agency. By the time he hits FA, he will be going into his age 32 season. By that age, most players who aren't *special* are starting to significantly decline. I'll roll the dice with arbitration.