2014 MLB Draft Thread

[Twins Twerp]

We will never know what kind of pitcher Alex Wimmers would have been if he had not come down with Steve Blass disease and had TJS and at least one other surgery.

 

And I don't think it's fair to mention Jesse Biddle, Zach Lee, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, and Taijuan Walker without mentioning Karsten Whitson (1-9). Let us see how they pan out first. And remember if two of them do click you have beaten the odds.

Plus those guys were taken in the pre-strict slot restriction days. Those stories are everywhere as kids would demand super high bonuses and then receive them in above slot deals. The twins...for whatever reason...were not signing over slot deals in 2000s.

[Monkeypaws]

Remember my friends, the hindsight is often keener than the foresight.

[kab21]

Christopher Crawford released a new mock draft last night. Like a lot of the recent mocks that have popped up he has the Twins taking Gordon. He gave Gordon a 50% chance to be taken by the Twins, Jackson a 35% chance, and Nola a 15% chance. Here is a link to the mock:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/the-mock-volume-v-the-percentages-edition/

 

Crawford isn't done. Him and Law released an ESPN insider article today on the best tools in the class. Here are a few players who made the list that have been linked to the Twins:

 

Nola had the best college change up with Weaver being considered.

Potential second round pick Mac Marshall was considered for the best HS change up.

Jackson had the best hit tool with Gordon being considered.

Jackson was the runner up for best power after Gatewood for a HS hitter.

Gordon was considered for best HS throwing arm.

 

Perhaps this needs highlighting for those that think Gordon's hit tool is subpar. He's not going to be tulo with the bat but he also isn't going to Elvis Andrus, Everth Cabrera or Alcides Escobar. And the defensive reports continue to get better.

[tobi0040]

Plus those guys were taken in the pre-strict slot restriction days. Those stories are everywhere as kids would demand super high bonuses and then receive them in above slot deals. The twins...for whatever reason...were not signing over slot deals in 2000s.

 

Detroit took Verlander and Porcello over slot during this time period. And also Andrew Miller, who was a key to the Cabrera trade.

 

We really showed them.

[Twins Twerp]

Detroit took Verlander and Porcello over slot during this time period. And also Andrew Miller, who was a key to the Cabrera trade.

 

We really showed them.

What are you talking about...Verlander was a number 2 overall pick. Andrew Miller was top 10. Rick Porcello was drafted one pick before Twins. So, in conclusion to your bizarre and asinine comment, you named 3 guys the Tigers took ahead of the Twins who also signed mammoth contracts.

 

The conversation was about guys being drafted in later rounds that everyone passed on multiple times or at least once. For every overslot deal teams hit on, there are multiples more that teams dont hit on. The draft is a crapshoot, just like going overslot is a crapshoot. Nothing is guaranteed.

[kab21]

What are you talking about...Verlander was a number 2 overall pick. Andrew Miller was top 10. Rick Porcello was drafted one pick before Twins. So, in conclusion to your bizarre and asinine comment, you named 3 guys the Tigers took ahead of the Twins who also signed mammoth contracts.

 

The conversation was about guys being drafted in later rounds that everyone passed on multiple times or at least once. For every overslot deal teams hit on, there are multiples more that teams dont hit on. The draft is a crapshoot, just like going overslot is a crapshoot. Nothing is guaranteed.

 

The overslot picks had a higher chance of success than slot picks and it only cost money. For years all of the small market teams were cheap. Teams like the Pirates and Royals frequently went underslot on their top picks but suddenly something clicked for some of the small market teams and they started pumping big money into the draft and built up strong farm systems. The Twins were one of the last teams to realize this in the draft and the international market.

[Willihammer]

Puff piece on Toussaint: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/touki-toussaint-impresses-with-personality-arm?ymd=20140519&content_id=76006672&vkey=news_mlb

[70charger]

I don't really have a response to the idea that you'd take a markedly worse pitcher (Beckett) over a better one (Radke) based on 7 postseason starts. If Radke had pitched in Boston, they'd have done just fine.

 

I think both of you have some good points, but this stuck out to me as well. Aside from Beckett's having pitched two more years, Brad Radke was clearly the better pitcher, with the better results, and with startling consistency. He was well above average year in and year out, whereas Beckett seems to take some years off of the whole being a good pitcher thing.

[kab21]

I think both of you have some good points, but this stuck out to me as well. Aside from Beckett's having pitched two more years, Brad Radke was clearly the better pitcher, with the better results, and with startling consistency. He was well above average year in and year out, whereas Beckett seems to take some years off of the whole being a good pitcher thing.

 

Radke - 4.22 career ERA

Beckett - 3.91 career ERA

 

I don't understand how Radke was clearly the better pitcher with better results. More consistent - yes but not better. In addition when Beckett was on he was an ace.

[70charger]

I looked at career ERA+, probably a better stat. Radke leads, 113 to 111.

 

And yes, Beckett has had some time looking like ace, but Radke never looked like Kevin Correia. Beckett has had years like that. He's had multiple years where he's actually been a detriment to his team, and I don't think you'll find that in Radke's record.

 

Maybe I'm biased, but I think Radke was criminally underrated.

[clutterheart]

Why is everyone here stuck on pitchers? If the draft goes like most people say it will, the best three pitchers will be gone. So they should have Gordon or Jackson in front of them

 

Take the best position player - Gordon, Jackson or maybe even Turner and be done with it. No need to stretch for a pitcher who will "move quick" because there are lots of those types in the system already.

A quality bat would be better here.

[nicksaviking]

I guess I'm in the minority in thinking that running Brad Radke out for game 1 of a playoff series is not on par with what the Tigers, Cardinals, Rays, Yankees, A's, Red Sox, Braves, Dodgers and every other playoff regular will put on the mound.

 

My opinion is that even the Twins can afford pitchers like Radke in free agency. They did after all sign him to a reasonable extension during the Metrodome years. They're not getting an ace in free agency though, so you better aim for them high in the draft.

 

Maybe somehow Nola can miss some bats at the MLB level but the odds are against it with a 91 MPH fastball and no exceptional breaking pitch.

[tobi0040]

I guess I'm in the minority in thinking that running Brad Radke out for game 1 of a playoff series is not on par with what the Tigers, Cardinals, Rays, Yankees, A's, Red Sox, Braves, Dodgers and every other playoff regular will put on the mound.

 

My opinion is that even the Twins can afford pitchers like Radke in free agency. They did after all sign him to a reasonable extension during the Metrodome years. They're not getting an ace in free agency though, so you better aim for them high in the draft.

 

Maybe somehow Nola can miss some bats at the MLB level but the odds are against it with a 91 MPH fastball and no exceptional breaking pitch.

 

My thoughts exactly. This is our shot at upside, that is why I like Freeland or Touki (if the big 3 are gone). If it is a position player, I prefer Jackson with the same logic. If he is a 35 HR a year guy he is likely off limits to us in free agency as well.

[tobi0040]

Personally, I'm note a huge fan of using college stats to judge prospects. While you like to see players dominate piers it definitely isn't an end all be all. Wimmers had a 11 k/9 in college but no one ever expected him to strike out that many guys in the bigs. No, Wimmers isn't the prospect Nola is. Nola has significantly better overall stuff. Nola does have some flaws though.

 

He throws from a low-three quarters arm slot which you rarely see in the bigs. He does repeat his delivery well though.He is also undersized at 6'1 which is or isn't a big deal depending on who you talk to. Most importantly to me is he doesn't have a true 70 grade pitch. I just see a solid number three pitcher when I look at Nola.

 

That is the issue, Nola doesn't have a plus pitch or a swing and miss pitch. These guys don't project as an ace or #2, most say he is a 3 or 4.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Plus Gordon is a shortstop, the key IF position, the most difficult position for any major league team to fill. Draft Gordon if the "big 3" are gone.

[gunnarthor]

Radke - 4.22 career ERA

Beckett - 3.91 career ERA

 

I don't understand how Radke was clearly the better pitcher with better results. More consistent - yes but not better. In addition when Beckett was on he was an ace.

 

That's why using era only is a bad idea. ERA+, which adjusts for ballparks but not leagues, has Radke ahead. Radke also had as many 5 WAR seasons as Beckett and John Lackey combined.

[gunnarthor]

I guess I'm in the minority in thinking that running Brad Radke out for game 1 of a playoff series is not on par with what the Tigers, Cardinals, Rays, Yankees, A's, Red Sox, Braves, Dodgers and every other playoff regular will put on the mound.

 

My opinion is that even the Twins can afford pitchers like Radke in free agency. They did after all sign him to a reasonable extension during the Metrodome years. They're not getting an ace in free agency though, so you better aim for them high in the draft.

 

Maybe somehow Nola can miss some bats at the MLB level but the odds are against it with a 91 MPH fastball and no exceptional breaking pitch.

 

As pointed out above, Radke did just fine in the playoffs - the offense less so. And pitchers like Radke rarely get to free agency and, when they do, they don't sign for Kevin Correia money.

[markos]

I guess I'm in the minority in thinking that running Brad Radke out for game 1 of a playoff series is not on par with what the Tigers, Cardinals, Rays, Yankees, A's, Red Sox, Braves, Dodgers and every other playoff regular will put on the mound.

 

My opinion is that even the Twins can afford pitchers like Radke in free agency. They did after all sign him to a reasonable extension during the Metrodome years. They're not getting an ace in free agency though, so you better aim for them high in the draft.

 

Maybe somehow Nola can miss some bats at the MLB level but the odds are against it with a 91 MPH fastball and no exceptional breaking pitch.

 

I disagree with this statement, and I think the current state of the league backs me up. Looking at the pitching staffs for those 8 teams (roughly 40 starters), only 3 pitchers are top-10 picks still on the team that drafted them: Verlander, Price, and Kershaw. Just as many aces were acquired via savvy trades: Scherzer, Sanchez, Wainwright.

 

There a many ways to create an excellent and deep pitching staff. The Rays have their anchor in Price, but then they filled the rest of their rotation by either developing HS pitchers drafted in the 4th round or later, or by acquiring young, high-end pitcher in trades. The Cardinals used a mixture of trades (Wainwright), HS picks (Miller) and college arms (Wacha, Lynn, Kelly). The A's almost exclusively draft college arms, and supplement with smart free agent signings and good trades. The Tigers have Verlander and Porcello whom they developed in house, but then made two very smart trades to acquire Scherzer and Sanchez. The Braves mostly draft college pitchers, plus some really good international and free agent signings.

 

The Rays have had 20 1st round picks since the new management took over in 2006. They have drafted only 6 pitchers, of which 2 were high school pitchers. The Cardinals have had 17 picks in the same time frame (highest #13). They have drafted 10 pitchers, but only 3 from high school.

 

The Twins do not need to gamble on the highest-upside pitcher every year in order to build a competitive staff. They need to continue to acquire high-end talent via trades whenever a good opportunity presents itself, and they need to get better at developing what talent they do have in the system.

[tobi0040]

I disagree with this statement, and I think the current state of the league backs me up. Looking at the pitching staffs for those 8 teams (roughly 40 starters), only 3 pitchers are top-10 picks still on the team that drafted them: Verlander, Price, and Kershaw. Just as many aces were acquired via savvy trades: Scherzer, Sanchez, Wainwright.

 

There a many ways to create an excellent and deep pitching staff. The Rays have their anchor in Price, but then they filled the rest of their rotation by either developing HS pitchers drafted in the 4th round or later, or by acquiring young, high-end pitcher in trades. The Cardinals used a mixture of trades (Wainwright), HS picks (Miller) and college arms (Wacha, Lynn, Kelly). The A's almost exclusively draft college arms, and supplement with smart free agent signings and good trades. The Tigers have Verlander and Porcello whom they developed in house, but then made two very smart trades to acquire Scherzer and Sanchez. The Braves mostly draft college pitchers, plus some really good international and free agent signings.

 

The Rays have had 20 1st round picks since the new management took over in 2006. They have drafted only 6 pitchers, of which 2 were high school pitchers. The Cardinals have had 17 picks in the same time frame (highest #13). They have drafted 10 pitchers, but only 3 from high school.

 

The Twins do not need to gamble on the highest-upside pitcher every year in order to build a competitive staff. They need to continue to acquire high-end talent via trades whenever a good opportunity presents itself, and they need to get better at developing what talent they do have in the system.

 

Exceptions apply, but you have the draft, trades, international signings, and free agency. High profile pitchers are off limits to the Twins in both free agency and international signings. Certainly the Yankees have been helped by CC (FA) and Tanaka (international). The Tigers by overslot drafts (Verlander and Porcello) and free agency (Anibal), and so on. The Rangers by Darvish. The Rays best pitcher was the best upside in that draft. The Dodgers took Greinke and certainly Kershaw was an upside pick in the draft.

 

I think that was the point of the post and one that I agree with.

[tobi0040]

I think 90% of this discussion has come down to a debate about floor and ceiling of each player considered at #5, and the risks and likelihood associated with them meeting the ceiling.

 

Maybe a relevant discussion would be to get a list of players considered at #5 and a rough framework of how that player projects. For the sake of this, I don't want to get into the business of predicting injuries. It is certainly an implied risk with pitchers more than position players.

 

Here is a quick overview of Aiken, based on about 10 minutes of research:

 

Best asset - 6'4 lefty. His stuff right now is 65 FB, 60 curve, 60 change, 60 control.

 

Ceiling - Front line starter, tall lefty with 2-3 plus pitches and a mid 90's fastball

Floor - If the scout ratings above are correct (where he is right now), #2 starter, very good #3 starter with no improvement to these.

Key Risk - He is a high school pitcher

 

List of players considered:

 

Aiken, Rodon, Freeland, Jackson, Gordon, Touki, Nola, and Kolek. I don't have time to look at them all

[nicksaviking]

As pointed out above, Radke did just fine in the playoffs - the offense less so. And pitchers like Radke rarely get to free agency and, when they do, they don't sign for Kevin Correia money.

 

If the Twins starters were better than "just fine" they wouldn't have to score a ton of runs. Runs are hard to come by when you're facing the other team's ace in October. Something the Twins probably should strive to emulate.

 

I find it hard to believe that anyone here thinks the Twins can compete in the postseason if they are only aiming for a "just fine" rotation.

[70charger]

If the Twins starters were better than "just fine" they wouldn't have to score a ton of runs. Runs are hard to come by when you're facing the other team's ace in October. Something the Twins probably should strive to emulate.

 

I find it hard to believe that anyone here thinks the Twins can compete in the postseason if they are only aiming for a "just fine" rotation.

 

Read what you quoted. He never said we should aim for "just fine" pitchers or a "just fine" rotation. He said that when Radke was asked to pitch in the playoffs he did just fine, and remember that any pitcher no matter how incredible can lose any single game.

 

As a pitcher he was way, way better than just fine. A staff of five Radkes would be way, way better than just fine.

[gunnarthor]

If the Twins starters were better than "just fine" they wouldn't have to score a ton of runs. Runs are hard to come by when you're facing the other team's ace in October. Something the Twins probably should strive to emulate.

 

I find it hard to believe that anyone here thinks the Twins can compete in the postseason if they are only aiming for a "just fine" rotation.

 

For crying out loud .... Radke pitched better than Johan Santana in the playoffs. We didn't lose because of him.

 

The entire point of this was that we need good pitchers of any type - if it's a Santana clone, great, if it's a Radke clone, great.

[nicksaviking]

Read what you quoted. He never said we should aim for "just fine" pitchers or a "just fine" rotation. He said that when Radke was asked to pitch in the playoffs he did just fine, and remember that any pitcher no matter how incredible can lose any single game.

 

As a pitcher he was way, way better than just fine. A staff of five Radkes would be way, way better than just fine.

 

I love Brad Radke, so I hate that he was brought up as an example. Let's change the example to Bronson Arroyo to end any kind of negative analysis of why this type of pitcher shouldn't be anchoring a playoff staff. A rotation of Bronson Arroyo's would not win a championship.

 

If Bronson Arroyo was on the Tigers, even in his prime, he would be lucky to be 4th in the rotation. I'm having a really hard time understanding how this is even debatable.

[nicksaviking]

For crying out loud .... Radke pitched better than Johan Santana in the playoffs. We didn't lose because of him.

 

The entire point of this was that we need good pitchers of any type - if it's a Santana clone, great, if it's a Radke clone, great.

 

I think your sentimentality toward Radke is getting in the way of the obvious. Those two pitchers at their peak were not on the same level. There were multiple levels between them.

[gunnarthor]

I think your sentimentality toward Radke is getting in the way of the obvious. Those two pitchers at their peak were not on the same level. There were multiple levels between them.

 

Yes, Santana was a better pitcher than Radke. Shocking. And Radke was a much better pitcher than Bronson Arroyo - and Josh Beckett and many, many other pitchers who had success in the post season.

[Pitz]

Any chance you guys could move this radke back-and-forth to its own thread if you wish to continue not changing each others' mind? I realize it started as draft related but it is no longer and it isn't really contributing positively to the discussion about the draft.

[nicksaviking]

Any chance you guys could move this radke back-and-forth to its own thread if you wish to continue not changing each others' mind? I realize it started as draft related but it is no longer and it isn't really contributing positively to the discussion about the draft.

 

Good call. If you hadn't brought it up, I'm not sure I could have remembered which thread this was!

[cmb0252]

Two new draft articles from mlb.com are up. The first one is Mayo's take on how strong the college pitching group is after Hoffman/Fedde went down.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/despite-injuries-college-hurlers-in-mlb-draft-still-strong?ymd=20140520&content_id=76093814&vkey=news_mlb

 

Yesterday Mayo posted an article where he had Toussaint and the third best prep arm behind Aiken/Kolek. Today Callis makes the case it should be Holmes. Here is his take:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/jim-callis-grant-holmes-is-third-best-high-school-pitcher-in-2014-mlb-draft?ymd=20140520&content_id=76095504&vkey=news_mlb

[nicksaviking]

Two new draft articles from mlb.com are up. The first one is Mayo's take on how strong the college pitching group is after Hoffman/Fedde went down.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/despite-injuries-college-hurlers-in-mlb-draft-still-strong?ymd=20140520&content_id=76093814&vkey=news_mlb

 

Yesterday Mayo posted an article where he had Toussaint and the third best prep arm behind Aiken/Kolek. Today Callis makes the case it should be Holmes. Here is his take:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/jim-callis-grant-holmes-is-third-best-high-school-pitcher-in-2014-mlb-draft?ymd=20140520&content_id=76095504&vkey=news_mlb

 

Yup, I like Holmes. If the top three pitchers are off the board, I'd be good with him. I like Toussaint also, but Holmes seems to be underrated.