2014 MLB Draft Thread

[drivlikejehu]

When there is no clear BPA, I prefer a position player due to pitcher injury risk. It's a tough situation because high-ceiling arms are difficult to acquire, and the injury risk only increases the need for depth... and the top of the first round is an obvious place to add that kind of talent.

 

It is possible the Twins think Nola is better than the consensus view, though pretty much everyone does rank him fairly high.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Sounds good, what is your sense about Kolek? I would think we have to take Kolek, Rodon, or Aiken if available right, i.e. Manuels mock.

 

Personally, I've had the throws-so-hard-his-UCL-will-snap worry about him for awhile, but didn't worry too much because I figured he'd be gone.

 

Two thoughts from people who have seen him on multiple occasions: 1) It's impossible to predict injuries, the pitching motion is bad for you whether you throw 59 or 99 and 2) Kolek has a good start (velo), but questions remain about his breaking ball and mix (and put Kolek as lesser prospect coming out of high school than Stewart).

[nicksaviking]

Also, Michael Wacha and Sonny Gray were considered a high-floor, low-ceiling guys when they were drafted and both fell because of it. I'd have to look back through old notes, but I don't think either were considered top-of-the-rotation arms. Instead, they were probably in the category that we're putting Nola in today.

 

Wimmers and Gibson would also fall into that catagory.

 

Drafting high floor/low ceiling is not new territory for the Twins, which is what scares me. Just as the ceiling is unpredictable, so is the floor. I think the draft guru's overestimate how low a floor really can be for guys who don't project to maintain an above league average K%.

 

Of course if Wimmers and Gibson had become Gray and Wacha I'd probably be a hypocrite with all the backtracking I would doing.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Wimmers and Gibson would also fall into that catagory.

 

Drafting high floor/low ceiling is not new territory for the Twins, which is what scares me. Just as the ceiling is unpredictable, so is the floor. I think the draft guru's overestimate how low a floor really can be for guys who don't project to maintain an above league average K%.

 

Of course if Wimmers and Gibson had become Gray and Wacha I'd probably be a hypocrite with all the backtracking I would doing.

 

You are making a great argument for how Tommy John isn't just a bump in the road that everyone comes back from.

[nicksaviking]

You are making a great argument for how Tommy John isn't just a bump in the road that everyone comes back from.

 

Very true, neither pitcher has had the same luster they had pre-injury. However in fairness, Wimmers was looking disappointing well before he got hurt and Gibson never had the swing and miss ability we were hoping for before or after surgery.

[tobi0040]

You are making a great argument for how Tommy John isn't just a bump in the road that everyone comes back from.

 

I have tried to make this case before, but Stras goes 1-2 behind Trout in a re-draft. Jose Fernandez doesn't get picked over 6 times even while on the operating table. I know I have a contrarian view on this, but I would take Hoffman right now or Kolek if I knew he needed TJ soon over a #4 starter.

 

These guys can lose 1-2 mph and a little command and not be a #4 starter.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I have tried to make this case before, but Stras goes 1-2 behind Trout in a re-draft. Jose Fernandez doesn't get picked over 6 times even while on the operating table. I know I have a contrarian view on this, but I would take Hoffman right now or Kolek if I knew he needed TJ soon over a #4 starter.

 

It works for some. It doesn't for others. I think the ELITE arms probably have more of a chance for recovery, because even at 80% of their old self, they're still in the 90%ile of all pitchers in MLB.

 

Someone (Law maybe) said that Hoffman has to sign this year because he's probably just starting to throw again before next year's draft and has no time to re-build value. If Hoffman has a ceiling of Verlander, but only becomes 80% of him because of the UCL, he's still a stud. But, the whole TJ argument goes very deep and wide. In the end, it's just a giant mess.

[Lonestar]

Nola certainly has the highest floor of the guys you mentioned. Touki probably has the highest ceiling ...

 

There's no slam dunk once Rodon and Aiken go off the board, even Kolek has some questions. Gordon might be the best bet? But all subject to an argument.

I would say Freeland has a higher floor than Nola. He throws harder, his stuff is better, his control is comparable, BA thinks he has some projection left, and he is left handed. They share the same low arm slot, but no one has complained about Freeland's late release.

 

Nola has an advantage in longer track record and tougher competition, but Freeland broke out last year in the Cape Code League and is building on that all this year. [FWIW the dearly departed Hoffman also broke out in last year's Cape but did not consistently show that this year.]

 

Kolek is a thrower whose secondary stuff is far away. His control has been likened to Touki's (by someone) and Touki has shown much better secondary stuff. Touki has a very quick arm, is extremely athletic, and has lots of projection in terms of velocity as well as command and control. I agree Touki might have the highest ceiling.

 

Most of us would agree on 8 of the top 10 and that's before we figure signability/slot. But that means 6 guys we like will be there at 5. Having watched last year's 1-1 Appel be reassigned to Extended Spring Training, I am quite content where we are.

 

Personnally I would be disappointed with Nola (because of Freeland) and disgusted with Beede (because velocity and stuff is necessary but not sufficient). But I'm going to root for whoever the Twins draft. And follow my six with a great deal of interest.

[nicksaviking]

I have tried to make this case before, but Stras goes 1-2 behind Trout in a re-draft. Jose Fernandez doesn't get picked over 6 times even while on the operating table. I know I have a contrarian view on this, but I would take Hoffman right now or Kolek if I knew he needed TJ soon over a #4 starter.

 

These guys can lose 1-2 mph and a little command and not be a #4 starter.

 

I agree I'd take them both over Nola. I'd probably still like Kolek as a top pick even with TJ as I view him as in a tier alone with Aiken and Rodon. I might drop Hoffman with Holmes, Toussaint and Newcomb though. Although for me, I'd be OK considering them at #5.

 

One thought on the TJ guys though. If one ISN'T worried about the recovery but instead is worried about development, make the pick. It was only two years ago that top picks often didn't get any MiLB time because they'd haggle over contracts all summer. Even last year, the Twins "high floor/low ceiling" #2 pick Ryan Eades threw all of 15 innings.

[tobi0040]

Wimmers and Gibson would also fall into that catagory.

 

Drafting high floor/low ceiling is not new territory for the Twins, which is what scares me. Just as the ceiling is unpredictable, so is the floor. I think the draft guru's overestimate how low a floor really can be for guys who don't project to maintain an above league average K%.

 

Of course if Wimmers and Gibson had become Gray and Wacha I'd probably be a hypocrite with all the backtracking I would doing.

 

Interesting article on Wacha and why he fell. Some had him labeled a closer, others a mid rotation guy. After the draft his fastball gained a little velocity and his curve improved, they give credit to the Cardinals.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/41964/how-18-teams-passed-on-michael-wacha

[diehardtwinsfan]

Very true, neither pitcher has had the same luster they had pre-injury. However in fairness, Wimmers was looking disappointing well before he got hurt and Gibson never had the swing and miss ability we were hoping for before or after surgery.

 

Kyle Gibson's career minor league K/9 is 8.02. He was at 7.7 last year when he got called up. I realize that's going to transition downard a bit when he's promoted, but a K/9 of 7 is still a pretty good pitcher.

 

I think the question we should be having right now is why is it so low?

[cmb0252]

Apparently today is mock draft day. Here is one from kiley McDaniel :

 

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1403161.html

[nicksaviking]

Kyle Gibson's career minor league K/9 is 8.02. He was at 7.7 last year when he got called up. I realize that's going to transition downard a bit when he's promoted, but a K/9 of 7 is still a pretty good pitcher.

 

I think the question we should be having right now is why is it so low?

 

Nearly every minor league pitcher who makes an extended stay in the majors manages a K/9 of 7.

 

Gibson clearly lost most of his helium when he got hurt, but it was already dipping a bit when people started saying his ceiling was a #3 because he didn't have an out pitch and wouldn't miss enough bats.

[tobi0040]

Kyle Gibson's career minor league K/9 is 8.02. He was at 7.7 last year when he got called up. I realize that's going to transition downard a bit when he's promoted, but a K/9 of 7 is still a pretty good pitcher.

 

I think the question we should be having right now is why is it so low?

 

Gibson seems like a totally different pitcher up here. 5.1 K per 9 last years and 4.0 this year.

[tobi0040]

Apparently today is mock draft day. Here is one from Miley McDaniel :

 

http://sbb.scout.com/2/1403161.html

 

I guess we will know in a few weeks, but I don't see Theo taking Nola. Nor do I see the best bat (Jackson) going 10th.

[cmb0252]

3 credible mocks and three choices of Gordon for the Twins. Rodon at #1, Aiken at #3, and Gordon at #5 are pretty much the only picks all three agree on. Cubs seem to be the biggest wild card.

[tobi0040]

3 credible mocks and three choices of Gordon for the Twins. Rodon at #1, Aiken at #3, and Gordon at #5 are pretty much the only picks all three agree on. Cubs seem to be the biggest wild card.

 

Regarding the Cubs, they have some big bats in their minor league system and a good young SS with the big club. If I put money on it, they go with an arm. But I don't see anyone outside of Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, or Jackson.

 

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/index.jsp?c_id=chc

[cmb0252]

Regarding the Cubs, they have some big bats in their minor league system and a good young SS with the big club. If I put money on it, they go with an arm. But I don't see anyone outside of Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, or Jackson.

 

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/index.jsp?c_id=chc

 

An arm definitely seems to be the best fit but last year they took Bryant over Gray because they had him higher on their board. Honestly even if they take Gordon I would be pretty happy with Jackson. Heck, out of the names they have been linked to I would be happy with any of them that aren't Nola.

[Twins Twerp]

Regarding the Cubs, they have some big bats in their minor league system and a good young SS with the big club. If I put money on it, they go with an arm. But I don't see anyone outside of Aiken, Rodon, Kolek, or Jackson.

 

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/index.jsp?c_id=chc

 

They also have Baez who is SS right now. Even if he profiles as a 3b, the cubs really CANT take a middle infielder. I know you take bpa in the draft, but geez some pitching in that system is a must.

 

As far as twins go. I have been hoping that Nola is not the selection, but what if he is this years Wacha. Kolek effing scares me but also excites me. Gordon is sexy pick now and sounds like he is linked to twins. If jackson can hit i like him and would keep him at catcher. I am much more excited this year as all these guys in top 10 seem good and last year number 4 seemed far away from 3.

[nicksaviking]

As far as twins go. I have been hoping that Nola is not the selection, but what if he is this years Wacha.

 

I'd feel better about that if the Twins had a track record of helping guys increase velocity and showing guys how to miss bats. Instead, well, there's quite a track record of the exact opposite.

[cmb0252]

I'd feel better about that if the Twins had a track record of helping guys increase velocity and showing guys how to miss bats. Instead, well, there's quite a track record of the exact opposite.

 

Not only did Wacha's fastball get a bump in velocity but his best pitch when drafted, a 65 change up, according to Law is now an easy 70-80 pitch depending on the day. Unless Nola develops a 70+ pitch he won't be close to Wacha.

[twinsfan34]

Some great discussion going on here, love getting the updates each night from this thread. Can definitely tell there is lots of research, watching games if possible, and the like going on.

 

And just so we don't confuse Kevin Correia, Jeff Hoffman, and Aaron Nola. Here's their college stats below.

 

Sure, these are college stats, but is there really any comparison that says Pitcher #3 is nothing like the other two in terms of walks, hits, strikeouts, less wild pitches, etc etc etc etc. Innings per start. Two guys were in the 5-6 IP per start, the other guy was 7-8 IP per start.

 

Then if I told you Pitcher #3 played in against the best competition, what would you say?

 

I will say as I've said before I've never liked Hoffman. He doesn't miss bats for the 'stuff' he supposedly has. He's not 18 anymore, he's 21 now, 22 in January and 23 before he even throws a baseball again. Most 1st and 2nd RD college pitchers need 2-3 season in the minors to make the pros. That means he's 25-26 (Kyle Gibson age) before he does well...whatever is left of him after TJ.

 

And he isn't a guy who misses bats in college, why will professional hitters do worse? The only reason he gets any strikeouts now is lack of discipline from college hitters.

 

I've watched Nola a few times and while I don't think Greg Maddux, he works ahead in counts, and you know he's one step ahead of the hitters. He's a pitcher, not a thrower. Hoffman is a thrower. Correia, I have no idea what he is. BP instructor? "Here, hit this..."

 

Some excellent points on Wacha and Rodriguez in that article. I do think MLB guys can 'tweak' something and add 1-2 MPH to a pitcher.

 

You can't predict Tommy John, yet. As they start to gain stats on if the pitchers were "one sport" athletes and if possible gain their high school stats and then have 1000's of data points to start to show a path of early use that leads to TJ - then so be it. But otherwise, it's still a bit of a crapshoot. Why hasn't Tim Lincecum had TJ 4 times yet? We will never know. He pitched like Rodon in college. Tons of innings.

 

Also, again, my 2 cents, I don't think Hoffman should be discussed before Tyler Beede. Played against better competition, more strikeouts, just needs command. Granted, both guys were only going 5-6 IP per start in college.

 

Here's Beede's stats:

Minus the walks, add some strikeouts, that's Hoffman. Beede and Hoffman are both 6'4", however Beede is listed at 210-215 and Hoffman is listed as 185-192. Is it a wonder he's due a TJ yet with no lower body base to throw from?

 

It seems to be a lot of Jeff Hoffman's hype is build on a sandlot type curveball and a great performance in the Cape Code League. But here's the top pitchers from 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013. How many of those top guys do you recognize?

 

Who do you recognize? Joe Saunders in 2000? Tim Lincecum killed it in 2005 (2 K's per IP!!). Kyle Gibson and Aaron Crow in 2007. Chris Sale in 2009. Sean Manea killed it in 2012. Kyle Freeland was the best in 2013.

 

If you didn't find Jeff Hoffman's stats in 2012, here's his player card.

 

And just for fun, some of the top college pitchers career stats piled up.

 

So personally, I would lose all hope in the Twins if they chose Hoffman at #5 just be merely sick if he's their pick at #46.

 

I don't know much about the HS pitchers. Aiken and Koleck, I would think, would surely be gone by #5. Touki, in the number of clips I've watched, has a poor catcher, electric stuff, but is wild. Hard to tell how much a decent catcher would do. He (the catcher) is all over the place, drove me nuts watching him. You'd think someone would help the guy and let him know there's 20+ college and pro scouts at every game Touki pitches.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Well, you definitely make me more comfortable with Nola... That said, the more I think about this, I think the Twins should go highest ceiling with that pick. I'd think long and hard about Touki, who should still be on the board at 5. I'd probably have him ahead of Nola/Gordon right now, unless the Twins think Gordon's bat can be of the .800+ OPS variety in the bigs. Still not against an underslot deal given Fede, Hoffman, and the plethora of high ceiling HS arms that will fall.

[cmb0252]

Fantastic write up Twinsfan34. You definitely reinforce the fact that there is no reason for the Twins to draft Hoffman at #5. I do feel grabbing Hoffman, which won't happen, at #46 would be a steal and feel just looking at college numbers paint the whole picture. Here is another college stud and his stats:

 

18 W/5L, 2.93 ERA, 218 innings pitched, 6 CG, 273K, 109 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 11.27 SO/9.

 

Who is the pitcher? None other than Twins own Alex Wimmers. While he was a dominant pitcher in college when he entered the pros most had him tagged as a future #4 with a ceiling of a #3. It is always good to have top college players dominate their competition but in the end stats can only tell you so much.

[pierre75275]

Is there really anybody the Twins would concievably pick over Kolek if he was still available? I just can't believe they would pass on him if he was an option. IF....IF the twins had both him and Stewart and both pitched according to projections...Wow

[Willihammer]

Good writeup twinsfan but I don't think Hoffman was in play since he went under the knife. I do think if you squint at the Cape Cod numbers you can see a trend where the guys with extreme K/BB ratios have cracked the MLB to some degree of success (Saunders, Crow, Sale, and up and comers like Manaea and Cooney). But, plenty fizzled too.

[Willihammer]

Since reading Verducci's column last week, I went ahead and sorted college arms by age. If an indication of future elbow health is less about saving bullets than it is about reaching the cutoff age healthy (~24 years), then that has to be a factor too I think.

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

[TABLE=width: 248]

Pitcher

DOB

Age

Carlos Rodon

[TD=align: right]12/10/1992

[TD=align: right]21.447[/TD]

Jeff Hoffman

[TD=align: right]1/8/1993[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21.367[/TD]

Nick Burdi

[TD=align: right]1/19/1993[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21.337[/TD]

Erick Fedde

[TD=align: right]2/25/1993[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21.236[/TD]

Jacob Lindgren

[TD=align: right]3/12/1993[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21.195[/TD]

Brandon Finnegan

[TD=align: right]4/14/1993[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21.104[/TD]

Sean Newcomb

[TD=align: right]4/14/1993[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21.104[/TD]

Kyle Freeland

[TD=align: right]5/14/1993[/TD]

[TD=align: right]21.022[/TD]

Tyler Beede

[TD=align: right]5/23/1993[/TD]

[TD=align: right]20.997[/TD]

Aaron Nola

[TD=align: right]6/4/1993[/TD]

[TD=align: right]20.964[/TD]

Chris Oliver

[TD=align: right]7/8/1993[/TD]

[TD=align: right]20.871[/TD]

Luke Weaver

[TD=align: right]8/21/1993[/TD]

[TD=align: right]20.751[/TD]

Matt Imhof

[TD=align: right]10/26/1993[/TD]

[TD=align: right]20.57[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[/TD]

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

 

Of course, there's Hoffman right near the top. Maybe you can't really favor a 21.3 year old over a 20.5, I dunno.

[cmb0252]

Is there really anybody the Twins would concievably pick over Kolek if he was still available? I just can't believe they would pass on him if he was an option. IF....IF the twins had both him and Stewart and both pitched according to projections...Wow

 

I would assume if Kolek is there at #5, which I truly doubt he will be, the Twins would take him. Saying that, Kolek is far from a finished product. While he has a massive fastball his secondary pitches and control are lagging behind. Also, when you have a kid his age throwing that hard the words Tommy and John have to at least come into play in the discussion at some point.

[Lonestar]

Also, when you have a kid his age throwing that hard the words Tommy and John have to at least come into play in the discussion at some point.

According to Dr. Andrews, if you throw hard enough to get drafted in the first round, TJS has to come into play.

 

As far as pitcher injury nexus theory (~24 years), it's just that -- a theory with flawed data to support it. Pitching is an unnatural act that hurts the arm/shoulder/elbow. Ask John Smoltz or Scott Baker or Brad Radke. Pitchers break.

 

The flaw in injury nexus theory is survivorship bias.

 

Pitchers who have bad mechanics (or any other flaw that would put them at greater risk of seeing their careers end early via injury) are automatically weeded out of baseball at a young age, leaving behind only the group of pitchers who made it through that initial checkpoint.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mystery-sabermetrics-still-cant-solve/

 

And of course none of the pitchers on Willi's list were within two years of the hypothetical nexus.

 

A lot of Cape Cod guys fizzle because a lot of prospects fizzle.

[Willihammer]

 

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mystery-sabermetrics-still-cant-solve/

 

And of course none of the pitchers on Willi's list were within two years of the hypothetical nexus.

 

No, but from the following paragraph

 

If a pitcher like Fernandez was going to get hurt, it would be at this stage of his career, when the largest possible pool of pitchers is facing its first test of injury resistance. Keep pitching without incident, though, and Fernandez’s odds of future ailments would be significantly reduced, simply because the biggest test — whether he can handle a major league workload — would already have been passed.

 

Fernandez is currently 21.290 years old - younger than Rodon and others on the list above.

 

I understand there is a survivorship bias in play with the nexus theory. Its sorta why I think it makes sense that a 21.3 year old TJS-avoider will stand a greater chance of surviving than a 20.8 year old.

 

As far as pitcher injury nexus theory (~24 years), it's just that -- a theory with flawed data to support it. Pitching is an unnatural act that hurts the arm/shoulder/elbow. Ask John Smoltz or Scott Baker or Brad Radke. Pitchers break.

 

Well talk to Jack Morris, Randy Johnson, Justin Verlander, etc. Obviously there are pitchers who throw hard and avoid the knife.

 

I'm curious what you're getting at with the Dr. Andrews' "throw harder than 85 and you will break your UCL." Do you think the Twins target soft tossers?