2014 MLB Draft Thread

markos · May 20, 2014

I think 90% of this discussion has come down to a debate about floor and ceiling of each player considered at #5, and the risks and likelihood associated with them meeting the ceiling.

Maybe a relevant discussion would be to get a list of players considered at #5 and a rough framework of how that player projects. For the sake of this, I don't want to get into the business of predicting injuries. It is certainly an implied risk with pitchers more than position players.

Here is a quick overview of Aiken, based on about 10 minutes of research:

Best asset - 6'4 lefty. His stuff right now is 65 FB, 60 curve, 60 change, 60 control.

Ceiling - Front line starter, tall lefty with 2-3 plus pitches and a mid 90's fastball
Floor - If the scout ratings above are correct (where he is right now), #2 starter, very good #3 starter with no improvement to these.
Key Risk - He is a high school pitcher

List of players considered:

Aiken, Rodon, Freeland, Jackson, Gordon, Touki, Nola, and Kolek. I don't have time to look at them all

Quick overview of Gordon.

Best asset - Legitimate shortstop.

Ceiling - League average offense, plus baserunning, plus defense at SS. Think Jimmy Rollins.

Floor - Hit and power tools don't develop. Ends up as a no-hit utility infielder.

Key Risk(s) - Will the bat/approach develop? It will be the difference between him becoming a starter or a backup. Will any power develop? Difference between him becoming an All Star or just a guy. Non-zero risk that he won't stick at short, but that is less of a risk than the questions about his bat.

Wildcard - Hit 90+ with a decent curve. May be able to salvage career as a bullpen arm if everything else goes to hell.

Jeremy Nygaard · May 20, 2014

I'll take the J-Roll comp. I took a lot of crap yesterday with the Simmons comp. Offensively, they're relatively similar, though Gordon will never steal 40 bases or hit 30 home runs (both things Rollins did). But I think that's a fair assessment. I'd put Gordon's defensively ceiling higher than Rollins too...(but four Gold Gloves might be too much to ask). That's the thing with comps, they're never perfect.

(Did you know that Rollins won a 2012 Gold Glove with a 0.0 dWAR?)

tobi0040 · May 20, 2014

I'll take the J-Roll comp. I took a lot of crap yesterday with the Simmons comp. Offensively, they're relatively similar, though Gordon will never steal 40 bases or hit 30 home runs (both things Rollins did). But I think that's a fair assessment. I'd put Gordon's defensively ceiling higher than Rollins too...(but four Gold Gloves might be too much to ask). That's the thing with comps, they're never perfect.

(Did you know that Rollins won a 2012 Gold Glove with a 0.0 dWAR?)

Jeremy, I think the "crap" yesterday got a little twisted. You said offensively he could become Simmons, I pointed out that Simmons bat isn't very impressive. Then others tried stating I didnt' see the value in Simmons, which is almost all based on his glove.

If I came off as attacking your comp, that wasn't my point, sorry.

cmb0252 · May 21, 2014

Miley McDaniel's new draft board:

http://sbb.scout.com/story/1404313

diehardtwinsfan · May 21, 2014

Pentecost ahead of Jackson?

cmb0252 · May 21, 2014

Pentecost ahead of Jackson?

I guess he likes the fact he is a true catcher. Pentecost has been killing the ball as of late and is a rare catcher who can steal bases.

markos · May 21, 2014

I'll take the J-Roll comp. I took a lot of crap yesterday with the Simmons comp. Offensively, they're relatively similar, though Gordon will never steal 40 bases or hit 30 home runs (both things Rollins did). But I think that's a fair assessment. I'd put Gordon's defensively ceiling higher than Rollins too...(but four Gold Gloves might be too much to ask). That's the thing with comps, they're never perfect.

(Did you know that Rollins won a 2012 Gold Glove with a 0.0 dWAR?)

Good point about Rollins. The comp was focused on the normal Rollins seasons (10-20 HR, 30+ SB), not his 2006-2007 peak where he was hitting 25+ HRs with 40+ SB. I haven't seen anyone project Gordon with that kind of power. Though I don't think anyone projected Rollins to have that kind of power either.

nicksaviking · May 21, 2014

Interestingly he has Justus Sheffield, Jacob Gatewood, Monte Harrison and Michael Gettys lower than pick 46. I'm still inclined to think guys like this will be gone, but maybe the Twins will have a shot at one of these high upside HS kids.

kab21 · May 21, 2014

Interestingly he has Justus Sheffield, Jacob Gatewood, Monte Harrison and Michael Gettys lower than pick 46. I'm still inclined to think guys like this will be gone, but maybe the Twins will have a shot at one of these high upside HS kids.

The problem is that you need to pay them top 15 or top 20 money or else they usually go to college. With the new slotting system that means that the Twins need to go a lot underslot with their first pick.

tobi0040 · May 21, 2014

The problem is that you need to pay them top 15 or top 20 money or else they usually go to college. With the new slotting system that means that the Twins need to go a lot underslot with their first pick.

Going under slot at #5 isn't the only way. Kohl received a bonus right at slot last year and we still were able to give Gonslaves $700K, much more than his $460K slot. We did that primarily by giving only 40K to our 9th round pick. I understand Gonslaves was a 4th round pick, but you can be creative.

kab21 · May 21, 2014

Going under slot at #5 isn't the only way. Kohl received a bonus right at slot last year and we still were able to give Gonslaves $700K, much more than his $460K slot. We did that primarily by giving only 40K to our 9th round pick. I understand Gonslaves was a 4th round pick, but you can be creative.

Try coming up with an extra 600K-1M using these methods. That's what they need to find to sign some of these overslot HS'ers.

gunnarthor · May 21, 2014

How much is the #46 pick worth?

tobi0040 · May 21, 2014

Try coming up with an extra 600K-1M using these methods. That's what they need to find to sign some of these overslot HS'ers.

The 46th pick is has a value of 1.21M. The 20th pick has a value of $2.03M. We came up with $240K in savings last year through later rounds. So we are $580K short. Last year Appel signed for $1.44M less than slot, Gray signed for $800K less than slot. Frazier signed for $280K less than slot. So not paying at slot at #5 and being creative in the later rounds seems feasible to me.

The bigger issue is who will be available at #46? Houston and the Marlins have used this strategy in the past and have multiple picks before us, so do the Royals and Indians.

diehardtwinsfan · May 21, 2014

keep in mind that there's a certain overall percentage that you can go overslot with without penalty. That adds some wiggle room there.

maxisagod · May 21, 2014

Interestingly he has Justus Sheffield, Jacob Gatewood, Monte Harrison and Michael Gettys lower than pick 46. I'm still inclined to think guys like this will be gone, but maybe the Twins will have a shot at one of these high upside HS kids.

All 3 I'd love at pick 46.

cmb0252 · May 22, 2014

Callis answered a few questions about top prospects today. Here is a link:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/pipeline-inbox-whose-draft-stock-is-rising?ymd=20140522&content_id=76362818&vkey=news_mlb

cmb0252 · May 22, 2014

BA's new board:

1. Aiken

2. Kolek

3. Rodon

4. Jackson

5. Freeland

6. Hoffman

7. Gordon

8. Fedde

9. Finnegan

10. Nola

Interesting board with Hoffman/Fedde still that high. Here is the link:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/

gunnarthor · May 22, 2014

SI's mock draft is a bit different than most - http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20140522/mlb-mock-draft-2014-carlos-rodon-dave-perkin/?eref=sihp

Twins take Beede, Nola falls to #9, Gordon #10 and Gatewood goes #7 to Philly. But he does have Burdi going to Detroit.

cmb0252 · May 22, 2014

SI's mock draft is a bit different than most - http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20140522/mlb-mock-draft-2014-carlos-rodon-dave-perkin/?eref=sihp

Twins take Beede, Nola falls to #9, Gordon #10 and Gatewood goes #7 to Philly. But he does have Burdi going to Detroit.

Wow....what an odd mock. A lot of strange picks.

nicksaviking · May 22, 2014

That is a unique mock. Looking at the cover pic, Rodon should be the clear choice. Just think how good he could be after someone teaches him to pitch with his eyes open!

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/si/dam/assets/140518122503-carlos-rodon-ap2-single-image-cut.jpg

cmb0252 · May 22, 2014

From Law:

White Sox in heavy on Nola today - I saw Kenny Williams Jr and I was told reinsdorf is here too.

cmb0252 · May 22, 2014

A note on the Law tweet, with how few top talents are left playing it shouldn't be that much of a surprise.

twinsfanstreif · May 23, 2014

Does Nola remind anyone of Radke? Control guy, several slightly above average pitches, even their wind up looks similar. Although not spectacular I would take another Radke at #5 to pair with Meyer!

John Bonnes · May 23, 2014

That is a unique mock. Looking at the cover pic, Rodon should be the clear choice. Just think how good he could be after someone teaches him to pitch with his eyes open!

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/si/dam/assets/140518122503-carlos-rodon-ap2-single-image-cut.jpg

He's breathing through his eyelids, like the lava lizards of the Galapagos Islands.

tobi0040 · May 23, 2014

SI's mock draft is a bit different than most - http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20140522/mlb-mock-draft-2014-carlos-rodon-dave-perkin/?eref=sihp

Twins take Beede, Nola falls to #9, Gordon #10 and Gatewood goes #7 to Philly. But he does have Burdi going to Detroit.

This would be a huge shock, Beeds has walked 4.5 guys per 9, to see the Twins take him over Gordon or Nola, I don't see this happening.

gunnarthor · May 23, 2014

This would be a huge shock, Beeds has walked 4.5 guys per 9, to see the Twins take him over Gordon or Nola, I don't see this happening.

Yeah, me neither - unless he falls to #46

2wins87 · May 23, 2014

Matt Garrioch of Minor League Ball has compiled his list of the 350 best draft prospects:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/5/23/5743674/2014-mlb-draft-top-350-prospects

He often has pretty different opinions from other analysts.

cmb0252 · May 23, 2014

New mock draft from BA is up and there is a shake up in the top 5 picks. Twins end up taking kolek. Here is the link:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2014-draft-preview-shakeup-atop-mock-draft-3-0/

gunnarthor · May 23, 2014

I'd be happy with Kolek, that's for sure.

First time I've heard that Rodon might not be a starter. That's scary. Seems like a deep draft but no elite super high end talent.

Twins Twerp · May 23, 2014

i'd be happy with kolek, that's for sure.

First time i've heard that rodon might not be a starter. That's scary. Seems like a deep draft but no elite super high end talent.

boing!!

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