2014 MLB Draft Thread

[Mike Sixel]

If I could get Reyes....I'd use a number 5 pick on that. I doubt that happens either....

 

To be clear, I agree, they should be drafting a guy they think should be great. Where we disagree is the definition of a great SS, I think.

[pioneers3]

How can you have three plus pitches but not a knockout tool?

 

I don't know how accurate the report was on twitter last night, but it is rumored that Holmes hit a 100 last night. If that is still not a knock out type pitch, I am giving up baseball.

 

Kolek was up to 98 as someone mentioned. I love that kid, very hard worker. Works on his dad's cattle ranch, wants to be like Nolan Ryan.

 

Rodon won't be around at 5, unless teams are afraid they can't sign him.

 

Beede has a very high ceiling and would be a safe pick for the Twins. Rodon will move faster through the minor leagues, but Beede has just as good as stuff as Rodon. Rodon more polished right now.

[kab21]

I may not be on the same page as Willihammer but it's not that he needs to have power so much as he needs to have as many avenues to contribute as possible. Mauer was an assumed 5 tool prospect. He has turned out to be a great pick even though the power and speed didn't develop. His hit tool is great and he was a great defensive catcher for a long time. He's good despite only hitting on 3/5 of his tools but I'd imagine he'd be considered a bust if he'd only developed 2.

 

Going into the draft, if a guy only has three tools, he's going to have to hit on all of them. It could happen and he could play at his ceiling like Elvis Andrus, but the odds are likely against all three tools being as advertised.

 

However scouts may change their mind on Turner. They may end up believing he will hit well at the next level and/or develop some sneaky power. I'd be fine with a projection of lots of XBH and 10-15 HR if he can get on base. I'd take a Dustin Pedroia type at SS any day.

 

the question is whether or not Turner has a powerless bat like Andrus or if he truly has gap power. The problem is that this thread is just lumping him in with Andrus because he doesn't have 25+ HR power. This also remains my biggest question about him but the reports are suggesting that he is not an Andrus type hitter and more of a Reyes or Ellsbury type. An Andrus type is not worth the #5 pick but a Reyes/Ellsbury type is definitely in the conversation.

[cmb0252]

From KLaw's chat today:

Is it possible for Jeff Hoffman to improve his stock enough to overtake Rodon as the prime candidate for 1/1, or would it require some sort of decline from Rodon?

Klaw (1:19 PM)

Rodon is going 1-1 barring injury. I don't see anyone who can overtake him. I've even talked to two national guys who both saw flaws in Rodon, and they still said he's clearly the top guy in the draft with no one close.

I think you have mentioned Sean Newcomb as a potential helium guy in the upcoming draft. What are some things you like about him, and how high can you see him going if all goes well this year?

Klaw (1:52 PM)

Three plus pitches but below-average command. Of course, I'm guessing last Friday's game was the first time he could walk outside since October, so he's probably behind the warmer-weather kids.

 

When does your first mock draft come out?

Klaw (1:59 PM)

Early May. Mocks before then are largely useless. Today I could tell you Rodon 1 and Kolek 2 and that's it. Teams really don't narrow their preferences down enough to put together a credible projection for the first round until late April.

 

Also one none draft question but a Twins one:

Klaw, Phil Hughes said today that he's scrapping his slider in favor of his curve. Do you think this is a good decision, or does the slider have potential to be better than his curve?

Klaw (1:50 PM)

When he was first coming up he had a pretty darn good CB. I think that can still be an out pitch for him, or at least the closest thing he'll have to one.

[ashbury]

A player could easily be above average while only hitting 10 HR's.

 

Approves:

 

[Major League Ready]

I just hope there is a great prospect at 5 and I prefer that it be a SP or SS. When you think about the possibilities of Turner, Rosario, and Buxton at the top of the order that could be fun to watch. Mauer won't be here forever but the lineup may look like this one day.

 

1) Turner

2) Rosario

3) Buxton

4) Sano

5) Arcia

6) Harrison

7) Kepler

8) Pinto

9) Hicks

 

Maybe AB Walker becomes the player we hope and they have a few huge 1B DH guys in the wings, including the latest International signing.

[oldguy10]

How about Vargas in the batting order too? Viable or not?

[Major League Ready]

How about Vargas in the batting order too? Viable or not?

 

This is a really big year for our minor league IMO. Lot's of very young arms plus Meyer, May, and even Darnell. You could even look at Diamond and Worley in the same light as a prospect.

 

Obviously, this is a really big year for the elite prospect position players. There are also quite a few guys that seem like they have a pretty darn high ceiling but also might be busts. Vargas is one of them. It is probably the optimist in me but I think there are a bunch of other guys that could really step forward this year. The guys like AB Walker that have not gained elite status but seem like they could elevate their stock this year. Santana, Polanco, Kepler, Goodrum, and Harrison are in a similar position. I will be pulling fo them.

[diehardtwinsfan]

This is a really big year for our minor league IMO. Lot's of very young arms plus Meyer, May, and even Darnell. You could even look at Diamond and Worley in the same light as a prospect.

 

Obviously, this is a really big year for the elite prospect position players. There are also quite a few guys that seem like they have a pretty darn high ceiling but also might be busts. Vargas is one of them. It is probably the optimist in me but I think there are a bunch of other guys that could really step forward this year. The guys like AB Walker that have not gained elite status but seem like they could elevate their stock this year. Santana, Polanco, Kepler, Goodrum, and Harrison are in a similar position. I will be pulling fo them.

 

 

This, this, and this! The reason our system is ranked so high is because of the start potential and the depth. There's a lot of lower ranked guys who could find themselves on top 100 lists next year, even as we graduate players like Sano and Meyer. Thorpe, Gonsalves, Harrison, Kepler, Walker, Vargas, Polanco, and even May all fit that bill right now. If they come out dealing this season, coupled with continued success of guys like Sano, Meyer, Rosario, Stewart, and Buxton, there's going to be a lot of reasons to be excited about Twins baseball for the remainder of the decade.

[Mike Sixel]

Nice insider writeup from KLAW today. Beede was awesome apparently....and he now thinks he's in the top 3 discussion for sure.

[tobi0040]

Nice insider writeup from KLAW today. Beede was awesome apparently....and he now thinks he's in the top 3 discussion for sure.

 

Isn't the knock on this guy control issues? I think are sitting at #5 in very deep draft. to the extent you have multiple pitchers with 95+ fastball and another plus pitch, I would take the one without any control questions.

[cmb0252]

Nice insider writeup from KLAW today. Beede was awesome apparently....and he now thinks he's in the top 3 discussion for sure.

 

Needs has definitely looked like the top of rotation starter people thought he could be. His fastball was sat at 92-95 with good sink. I will get a weekend round up out later and include his stat line. Definitely think he could be an option at 5 for the Twins.

[cmb0252]

Isn't the knock on this guy control issues? I think are sitting at #5 in very deep draft. to the extend you have multiple pitchers with 95+ fastball and another plus pitch, I would take the one without any control questions.

 

Yeah that has always been the knock but reports say he worked on his mechanics in the off season which has lead to better control. Obviously it has only been 3 games but if he can show over the season he really has turned the corner he is definitely a top 5 guy. I'm a fan.

[gunnarthor]

It's early but I'd be happy with any of Beede, Rodon, Hoffman or Kolek falling to us at #5. It'll be fun to watch the draft boards develop as the HS seasons get going more.

[markos]

It's early but I'd be happy with any of Beede, Rodon, Hoffman or Kolek falling to us at #5. It'll be fun to watch the draft boards develop as the HS seasons get going more.

 

Yep. Some years it is sucks to be stuck at #5 when there are only a few great options in a draft. This does not appear to be one of those years. Hopefully everyone stays healthy and effective so that the Twins have multiple high-upside options at #5.

[bird]

Yep. Some years it is sucks to be stuck at #5 when there are only a few great options in a draft. This does not appear to be one of those years. Hopefully everyone stays healthy and effective so that the Twins have multiple high-upside options at #5.

 

Yes, looks like it's going to be a fine choice regardless. If Rodon, Hoffman, Beede, and Kolek did go #1-4, the Twins would perhaps be selecting the very best position player in the entire draft.

[howieramone1406390264]

Yes, looks like it's going to be a fine choice regardless. If Rodon, Hoffman, Beede, and Kolek did go #1-4, the Twins would perhaps be selecting the very best position player in the entire draft.

 

I agree. Turner, Jackson, and Gatewood all look good to me.

[oldguy10]

Hopefully the Twins will not draft a pitcher that will immediately require TJ surgery as was the case with Gibson and Wimmers in back-to-back years yet.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Beede bet on himself coming out of HS turning down a few million. He might bet on himself again if he drops a little bit.

[kab21]

Isn't the knock on this guy control issues? I think are sitting at #5 in very deep draft. to the extent you have multiple pitchers with 95+ fastball and another plus pitch, I would take the one without any control questions.

 

The problem with this strategy is that the HS pitcher's control, secondary pitches and overall risk are all worse (typically) than Beede's. Another month of this and Beede will certainly be in my top 5 although he wasn't there before the season.

 

I agree. Turner, Jackson, and Gatewood all look good to me.

 

I'm not as convinced that they all look good.

 

Turner - I have argued for Turner in this thread but he does actually need to show some pop in his bat to be the #5 pick. It's not that he needs to hit X number of college HR's but he needs scouts to project to hit 10 HR's and plenty of doubles in the majors.

 

Jackson - I need to be convinced that his bat is that good instead of him getting a significant bump simply because he plays catcher. Maybe he sticks at catcher but he needs to be drafted for his bat.

 

Gatewood - He needs to transfer his outstanding tools into game performance. Again I don't care if he sticks at SS (it would be a bonus) but he needs to show that he will have a legit MLB bat if he's being drafted at #5.

[twinsin17]

I agree with you kab21...Turner, Jackson and Gatewood each have a lot to prove this spring to get my vote at #5. If the top 4 goes Rodon/Hoffman/Kolek/Beede in some order it would make sense for preseason second tier arms like Nola, Weaver, Aiken, Toussaint or Holmes to continue the run on arms early. Of that group Nola would make me most happy.

[kab21]

I think you misinterpret my skepticism regarding those 3 hitters. Skepticism doesn't mean that you disregard them and move on to lower upside pitchers or pitchers with even more to prove than those hitters.

 

I find myself rather liking Turner after being one of the first skeptics on the board. Drafting a potential Ellsbury at SS is worthy at #5. He does need to convince scouts that he has that much pop in his bat though. I am more confident in his defense lately though since it sounds like he is solid at SS but he has plus defensive tools and could be a plus defender at SS.

[twinsin17]

It would be short-sighted to disregard any prospect this early and given the depth of this draft it is reasonable to expect movement in the top 10 from any of the names people have posted in this thread. A general theme of Rodon, Hoffman, Kolek and now Beede as the most likely (early) top four is emerging. At #5 there are a number of names still being thrown around among draft pundits, including Jackson, Gatewood and Turner. Given what is currently known of each of them I have trouble declaring them as higher upside or less to prove than each of the pitchers I mentioned as potential risers. I hope each of these hitters rips the seems off the ball this spring and a more decisive picture of the best player available at #5 materializes. Until then I'll stick to considering all of the top prospects and narrow my scope when more concrete evidence emerges that one should be given significantly greater attention than another.

[cmb0252]

MLB pipeline article on several draft prospects ( Gettys, Baca, Brink, Wall)

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140304&content_id=68664646&notebook_id=68664500&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

[cmb0252]

MLB Weekly Draft College Round Up:

 

College Starters:

Rodon- 7 innings, 3H, 1 ER, 8K, 3 BB. Reports had his fastball at 94 with great life. Control of off-speed wasn't as great has it has been.

 

Hoffman- 8 innings, 5 H, 0 ER, 14 K, 1 BB. Scout quote from Crawford:

"What impressed me most was how efficient he was," an American League scout said. "When you strike out that many guys and only need 109 pitches to do it? That's awesome. Western Kentucky didn't really stand a chance tonight even if Hoffman wasn't good, but he would have gotten through most collegiate lineup tonight."

 

Beede- 7 innings, 3 H, 1 ER, 6 K, 3 BB. KLaw saw him and here is a quote:

"Beede has had some ups and downs over his long career as a top amateur prospect; in high school he had average velocity, a good changeup and good feel for his age, with an easy delivery, but in 2013 he started throwing harder with much worse command. Friday night, he had it all, with good downhill plane on a 92-95 mph fastball, holding his velocity throughout his outing. His changeup was once again his out pitch, 80-83 with downward fade to left-handers, but with a little cut to it when he threw it to right-handers, demonstrating a precocious ability to manipulate the baseball. His curveball was his least consistent pitch, but the majority were above-average or better, 80-81 mph with tight rotation and an 11-to-5 break. He stayed ahead of hitters almost the whole night, and his fastball command was the best it's been in years. "

 

Nola- 6 innings, 5 H, 0 ER, 10 K, 1 BB.

 

Newcomb- 5.2 innings, 3 H, 0 ER, 6 K, 3 BB. Scout quote from Crawford:

"I think you're seeing some rust," an AL East scout said. "But he's going to have to pitch better than this. The Newcomb I saw over the summer was a guy who might have had the most arm-strength and was consistently 93-95 touching 97. He got shut down this summer with mono, so maybe he's just regaining what he had. This isn't the guy I saw in the Cape Cod though."

 

College Bats:

Turner- 10 ABs, 2 H, 3 R, 2 RBI, 3 W, 1 K, 0 XBH. Scout quote from Crawford:

"Speed is great, but it can only do so much," an NL East scout said. "He has such a severe collapse on his back foot that it's tough to imagine he's going to be able to hit for power, particularly when he starts facing guys that are legit pitching prospects like he saw on Saturday (UCLA sophomore Grant Watson). His bat-to-ball skills are very good and I think he can get on base, but if he can't give me some extra-base hits he can't be a top-five pick."

 

Schwarber- 7 ABs, 4 H, 5 R, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SB, 2 2B, 1 3B.

 

Pentecost- 13 ABs, 2 H, 4 R, 2 RBI, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 SB, 0 XBH.

 

Zimmerman- 14 ABs, 8 H, 6 R, 3 SB, 1 HR. What BA had to say:

"San Francisco outfielder Bradley Zimmer continues to hit in game action. The long and lean 6-foot-5, 205-pound Zimmer, who was voted as one of the top athletes in the college class by scouting directors, went 8-for-14 against Sacramento State. Zimmer has a quick stroke and level, line-drive pat bath that creates hard contact. Zimmer, at least an average runner, stole three bases on the weekend, the most of any top 100 college player. One of the biggest questions scouts had about Zimmer was his potential power production because of his bat path but the lefthanded-hitting Zimmer hit his second home run of the season, an opposite field shot to left field in a pitcher’s park (80 Park Factor)."

Law and Crawford's insider articles (have a lot more info I left out):

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/

BA article with all college player stats:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-draft-prospects-stat-roundup-week-3-2/

[cmb0252]

MLB Weekly HS Round Up:

 

HS Pitchers:

Kolek- 6 innings, 0 H, 0 ER, 11 K. Fastball 92-98. Off speed average. Scout quote from Crawford:

"Velocity isn't everything, but it's nice to see, especially early on," an AL West crosschecker said. "It's no surprise, [Kolek] was touching triple- digits this summer and he's a massive kid who's gotten taller since we saw him in the summer. He's going to dominate the competition he faces all year so the stats are a little misleading, but he can absolutely bring it."

 

Sheffield- Report from Law:

"I also caught a scrimmage from Vanderbilt recruit Justus Sheffield, a left-handed pitcher whose brother, right-hander Jordan Sheffield, is a freshman at Vanderbilt now (and was nearly a member of the Red Sox), recovering from Tommy John surgery. Sheffield was fair, in preseason form rather than midseason form, 88-91 with average life, showing better command to his arm side than his glove side. His 76-80 mph changeup had good arm speed and a ton of action; his 75-79 mph curveball had two-plane break with tight rotation, but looked slower than its actual velocity. He's more physically mature now than Jordan was at this time last year. His arm also works better than Jordan's thanks to a really long stride. His velocity might improve as he continues to get stretched out for the regular season -- he was limited to just three innings on Saturday -- and could be a solid second-rounder."

 

HS bats:

Gettys- Scout quotes from Jim Callis:

"Gettys is a head-scratcher," an area scout who attended the game said. "He has the best all-around tools in my area. He has extraordinary bat speed and he can stay in center field, unlike Clint Frazier last year, who I think will play his way onto a corner.

"Unfortunately, Gettys is developing a history of not making hard contact. I like the kid and he has good makeup and top-10-overall-pick tools. But I don't think he sniffs the first half of the first round without having more conviction in his bat."

 

"I think he wants to do so well that instead of letting the game to him, he tries to overpower the baseball," the scout said. "There's a lot of effort and a lack of effort. In batting practice, it's better. The bat path is fine. To me, he's an anxious hitter, and anxious hitters tend not to perform."

 

Crawford with scouts takes on Gatewood vs Jackson:

"You can't help but compare the two," an NL area scout said. "You saw them both in the same summer events and they were always the two that drew the most attention.Gatewood has more power and Jackson the better hit tool, but at least to start the year they're the two best prep bats on the West Coast, if not the entire country."

 

"There's also something about safe guy and the guy with upside. To me Jackson is the guy who's going to hit, but is he going to be a star? Probably not unless he ends up behind the plate. Gatewood could be a star at shortstop as a guy who can hit 30-35 homers, but there's also a ton of risk as he's got a 40 hit-tool right now."

 

Law and Crawford's insider articles (have a lot more info I left out):

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/

 

Jim Callis article on Gettys and other draft prospects:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140304&content_id=68664646&notebook_id=68664500&vkey=notebook_mlb&c_id=mlb

[Kwak]

If we were to combine the information from other threads (articles) concerning Santana (SS) and this thread, it is highly unlikely the Twins draft any SS this June. Plus, there is (so far) so much strong-positive information on pitchers (both college and HS) and combine that information with the fact the Twins just paid mega-millions on free agent pitchers (which is unprecedented at this scale for the Twins), I would be most surprised if the Twins did not select a pitcher at #5 this June.

[B Richard]

Thanks for that, cmb. I understand it's pretty early, but I have severe concern over drafting someone with a 40 hit tool. IMO, it's the most important tool for position players with some extreme exceptions. How well does Gatewood field his position? If he has Jose Iglesias/Andrelton Simmons defense, it doesn't bother me as much. From everything I've gathered, however, that appears not to be the case. He very well might improve his hit tool over the course of the season, but I personally would opt for someone else at #5 if his hit tool remains at 40 come draft day.

[maxisagod]

If we were to combine the information from other threads (articles) concerning Santana (SS) and this thread, it is highly unlikely the Twins draft any SS this June. Plus, there is (so far) so much strong-positive information on pitchers (both college and HS) and combine that information with the fact the Twins just paid mega-millions on free agent pitchers (which is unprecedented at this scale for the Twins), I would be most surprised if the Twins did not select a pitcher at #5 this June.

 

IF Santana plays well this spring, IF he ends strong in AAA, then there may not be a short term need for SS, or a need for a fast riser. But this effect the Twins trading and free agent plans more than their draft plans. Plus a guy like Gatewood is 5-6 years away from playing on the Twins, around the time Santana would be getting close to free agency. Baseball has such a deep minor league system, BPA is the only way to address a top 5 pick IMO.

[Kwak]

But the the SS aren't the BPA!